All credit goes to Wayne Arnold from BuffaloBills.com message boards:
"Ignoring the injury concerns for a moment, there is a small yet vocal segment of the Buffalo Bills fanbase that is ready to bail on Manuel based on what they perceive to be a poor rookie season.
So how should we judge Manuel's rookie season? The best way to do that is referring to the rookie seasons of quarterbacks recently selected in the first round and/or veteran quarterbacks who are currently considered "Franchise QB's."
First, let's go back ten years to the 2004 QB Class and move forward. Since the 2004 NFL Draft, a total of 28 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round (including Manuel). 19 of those 28 started at least half of their team's games in their rookie season (seven started 0 games, two started 5 games or less).
Although the passer rating statistic has been criticized by many over the years, I feel it is the best statistic to determine how productive a team's passing game led by their quarterback was in a given season. This can be supported by the fact that the players considered to be the best quarterbacks in the league are consistently at the top of the passer rating list, while those considered among the worst are consistently at the bottom.
Manuel had the 6th best passer rating of all rookies selected in the first round over the last 10 years that started at least half of their team's games.
Now you might say that that ranking is skewed based on the rising passer rating statistic throughout the league. I agree. That can be resolved by instead referring to where each QB ranked in the league as opposed to the raw passer rating stat.
For example: Manuel's 77.7 rating in 2013 finished 26th best in the league out of 33 QB's who started at least 8 games. That means he finished in the 21.21 percentile.
By comparison, in 2009 Matthew Stafford's 61.0 rating finished 29th in the league out of 32 QB's. That gives him a 9.38 percentile.
Taking ranking percentile into account, Manuel still finished the 7th best QB out of the 19 QB's drafted in the first round since 2004 that started at least 8 games as rookies.
Here is the list:
1. Robert Griffin (2012 - 102.4) - 90.63%
2. Ben Roethlisberger (2004 - 98.1) - 85.29%
3. Matt Ryan (2008 - 87.7) - 65.63%
4. Cam Newton (2011 - 84.5) - 51.61%
5. Joe Flacco (2008 - 80.3) - 31.25%
6. Matt Leinart (2006 - 74.0) - 28.13%
7. EJ Manuel (2013 - 77.7) - 21.21%
8. Sam Bradford (2010 - 76.5) - 19.35%
9. Andrew Luck (2012 - 76.5) - 18.75%
10. Ryan Tannehill (2012 - 76.1) - 15.63%
11. Mark Sanchez (2009 - 63.0) - 12.50%
12. Brandon Weeden (2012 - 72.6) - 9.38%
13. Matthew Stafford (2009 - 61.0) - 9.38%
14. Vince Young (2006 - 66.7) - 6.25%
15. Christian Ponder (2011 - 70.1) - 3.23%
16. Josh Freeman (2009 - 59.8) - 3.13%
17. Blaine Gabbert (2011 - 65.4) - 0.00% (last)
18. Eli Manning (2004 - 55.4) - 0.00%
19. Alex Smith (2005 - 40.8) - 0.00%
Not good enough? Too many "busts" in this list? Fair enough.
Let's take a look at how the current "Franchise Quarterbacks" of the league faired as rookies in comparison. Let's consider the 14 NFL QB's whose organizations would consider them "franchise" with at least five years of experience (P Manning, E Manning, Roethlisberger, Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Alex Smith, Brees, Brady, Palmer, Rivers, Romo, Cutler, Rodgers). How did those quarterbacks do as rookies?
Well, six of those fourteen did not start a game as rookies. Another (Cutler) only started 5 games.
So when ranking the seven "franchise" quarterbacks who did start at least half of their team's games as rookies, we have...
1. Ben Roethlisberger (2004 - 98.1) - 85.29%
2. Matt Ryan (2008 - 87.7) - 63.63%
3. Joe Flacco (2008 - 80.3) - 31.25%
4. Peyton Manning (1998 - 71.2) - 25.81%
5. Matthew Stafford (2009 - 61.0) - 9.38%
6. Eli Manning (2004 - 55.4) - 0.00%
7. Alex Smith (2005 - 40.8) - 0.00%
EJ's 21.21% would go just below Manning and well ahead of Stafford.
What does this tell us? It tells us that from a passer rating standpoint, Manuel produced slightly above average results as a rookie compared to other first-round picks in recent history. He also performed in the middle among those that would now be considered "franchise quarterbacks."
This while also taking into account that Manuel was chosen in the middle of the first round, he was considered to be "raw" coming out and not close to a finished product, and that his season was derailed three separate times by nagging freak knee injuries.
This bodes very well for the future."
"Ignoring the injury concerns for a moment, there is a small yet vocal segment of the Buffalo Bills fanbase that is ready to bail on Manuel based on what they perceive to be a poor rookie season.
So how should we judge Manuel's rookie season? The best way to do that is referring to the rookie seasons of quarterbacks recently selected in the first round and/or veteran quarterbacks who are currently considered "Franchise QB's."
First, let's go back ten years to the 2004 QB Class and move forward. Since the 2004 NFL Draft, a total of 28 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round (including Manuel). 19 of those 28 started at least half of their team's games in their rookie season (seven started 0 games, two started 5 games or less).
Although the passer rating statistic has been criticized by many over the years, I feel it is the best statistic to determine how productive a team's passing game led by their quarterback was in a given season. This can be supported by the fact that the players considered to be the best quarterbacks in the league are consistently at the top of the passer rating list, while those considered among the worst are consistently at the bottom.
Manuel had the 6th best passer rating of all rookies selected in the first round over the last 10 years that started at least half of their team's games.
Now you might say that that ranking is skewed based on the rising passer rating statistic throughout the league. I agree. That can be resolved by instead referring to where each QB ranked in the league as opposed to the raw passer rating stat.
For example: Manuel's 77.7 rating in 2013 finished 26th best in the league out of 33 QB's who started at least 8 games. That means he finished in the 21.21 percentile.
By comparison, in 2009 Matthew Stafford's 61.0 rating finished 29th in the league out of 32 QB's. That gives him a 9.38 percentile.
Taking ranking percentile into account, Manuel still finished the 7th best QB out of the 19 QB's drafted in the first round since 2004 that started at least 8 games as rookies.
Here is the list:
1. Robert Griffin (2012 - 102.4) - 90.63%
2. Ben Roethlisberger (2004 - 98.1) - 85.29%
3. Matt Ryan (2008 - 87.7) - 65.63%
4. Cam Newton (2011 - 84.5) - 51.61%
5. Joe Flacco (2008 - 80.3) - 31.25%
6. Matt Leinart (2006 - 74.0) - 28.13%
7. EJ Manuel (2013 - 77.7) - 21.21%
8. Sam Bradford (2010 - 76.5) - 19.35%
9. Andrew Luck (2012 - 76.5) - 18.75%
10. Ryan Tannehill (2012 - 76.1) - 15.63%
11. Mark Sanchez (2009 - 63.0) - 12.50%
12. Brandon Weeden (2012 - 72.6) - 9.38%
13. Matthew Stafford (2009 - 61.0) - 9.38%
14. Vince Young (2006 - 66.7) - 6.25%
15. Christian Ponder (2011 - 70.1) - 3.23%
16. Josh Freeman (2009 - 59.8) - 3.13%
17. Blaine Gabbert (2011 - 65.4) - 0.00% (last)
18. Eli Manning (2004 - 55.4) - 0.00%
19. Alex Smith (2005 - 40.8) - 0.00%
Not good enough? Too many "busts" in this list? Fair enough.
Let's take a look at how the current "Franchise Quarterbacks" of the league faired as rookies in comparison. Let's consider the 14 NFL QB's whose organizations would consider them "franchise" with at least five years of experience (P Manning, E Manning, Roethlisberger, Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Alex Smith, Brees, Brady, Palmer, Rivers, Romo, Cutler, Rodgers). How did those quarterbacks do as rookies?
Well, six of those fourteen did not start a game as rookies. Another (Cutler) only started 5 games.
So when ranking the seven "franchise" quarterbacks who did start at least half of their team's games as rookies, we have...
1. Ben Roethlisberger (2004 - 98.1) - 85.29%
2. Matt Ryan (2008 - 87.7) - 63.63%
3. Joe Flacco (2008 - 80.3) - 31.25%
4. Peyton Manning (1998 - 71.2) - 25.81%
5. Matthew Stafford (2009 - 61.0) - 9.38%
6. Eli Manning (2004 - 55.4) - 0.00%
7. Alex Smith (2005 - 40.8) - 0.00%
EJ's 21.21% would go just below Manning and well ahead of Stafford.
What does this tell us? It tells us that from a passer rating standpoint, Manuel produced slightly above average results as a rookie compared to other first-round picks in recent history. He also performed in the middle among those that would now be considered "franchise quarterbacks."
This while also taking into account that Manuel was chosen in the middle of the first round, he was considered to be "raw" coming out and not close to a finished product, and that his season was derailed three separate times by nagging freak knee injuries.
This bodes very well for the future."
Comment