Interesting Look At EJ And Rookie QBs

[JCBills]

All credit goes to Wayne Arnold from BuffaloBills.com message boards:

"Ignoring the injury concerns for a moment, there is a small yet vocal segment of the Buffalo Bills fanbase that is ready to bail on Manuel based on what they perceive to be a poor rookie season.

So how should we judge Manuel's rookie season? The best way to do that is referring to the rookie seasons of quarterbacks recently selected in the first round and/or veteran quarterbacks who are currently considered "Franchise QB's."

First, let's go back ten years to the 2004 QB Class and move forward. Since the 2004 NFL Draft, a total of 28 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round (including Manuel). 19 of those 28 started at least half of their team's games in their rookie season (seven started 0 games, two started 5 games or less).

Although the passer rating statistic has been criticized by many over the years, I feel it is the best statistic to determine how productive a team's passing game led by their quarterback was in a given season. This can be supported by the fact that the players considered to be the best quarterbacks in the league are consistently at the top of the passer rating list, while those considered among the worst are consistently at the bottom.

Manuel had the 6th best passer rating of all rookies selected in the first round over the last 10 years that started at least half of their team's games.

Now you might say that that ranking is skewed based on the rising passer rating statistic throughout the league. I agree. That can be resolved by instead referring to where each QB ranked in the league as opposed to the raw passer rating stat.

For example: Manuel's 77.7 rating in 2013 finished 26th best in the league out of 33 QB's who started at least 8 games. That means he finished in the 21.21 percentile.

By comparison, in 2009 Matthew Stafford's 61.0 rating finished 29th in the league out of 32 QB's. That gives him a 9.38 percentile.

Taking ranking percentile into account, Manuel still finished the 7th best QB out of the 19 QB's drafted in the first round since 2004 that started at least 8 games as rookies.

Here is the list:

1. Robert Griffin (2012 - 102.4) - 90.63%
2. Ben Roethlisberger (2004 - 98.1) - 85.29%
3. Matt Ryan (2008 - 87.7) - 65.63%
4. Cam Newton (2011 - 84.5) - 51.61%
5. Joe Flacco (2008 - 80.3) - 31.25%
6. Matt Leinart (2006 - 74.0) - 28.13%
7. EJ Manuel (2013 - 77.7) - 21.21%
8. Sam Bradford (2010 - 76.5) - 19.35%
9. Andrew Luck (2012 - 76.5) - 18.75%
10. Ryan Tannehill (2012 - 76.1) - 15.63%
11. Mark Sanchez (2009 - 63.0) - 12.50%
12. Brandon Weeden (2012 - 72.6) - 9.38%
13. Matthew Stafford (2009 - 61.0) - 9.38%
14. Vince Young (2006 - 66.7) - 6.25%
15. Christian Ponder (2011 - 70.1) - 3.23%
16. Josh Freeman (2009 - 59.8) - 3.13%
17. Blaine Gabbert (2011 - 65.4) - 0.00% (last)
18. Eli Manning (2004 - 55.4) - 0.00%
19. Alex Smith (2005 - 40.8) - 0.00%

Not good enough? Too many "busts" in this list? Fair enough.

Let's take a look at how the current "Franchise Quarterbacks" of the league faired as rookies in comparison. Let's consider the 14 NFL QB's whose organizations would consider them "franchise" with at least five years of experience (P Manning, E Manning, Roethlisberger, Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Alex Smith, Brees, Brady, Palmer, Rivers, Romo, Cutler, Rodgers). How did those quarterbacks do as rookies?

Well, six of those fourteen did not start a game as rookies. Another (Cutler) only started 5 games.

So when ranking the seven "franchise" quarterbacks who did start at least half of their team's games as rookies, we have...

1. Ben Roethlisberger (2004 - 98.1) - 85.29%
2. Matt Ryan (2008 - 87.7) - 63.63%
3. Joe Flacco (2008 - 80.3) - 31.25%
4. Peyton Manning (1998 - 71.2) - 25.81%
5. Matthew Stafford (2009 - 61.0) - 9.38%
6. Eli Manning (2004 - 55.4) - 0.00%
7. Alex Smith (2005 - 40.8) - 0.00%

EJ's 21.21% would go just below Manning and well ahead of Stafford.

What does this tell us? It tells us that from a passer rating standpoint, Manuel produced slightly above average results as a rookie compared to other first-round picks in recent history. He also performed in the middle among those that would now be considered "franchise quarterbacks."

This while also taking into account that Manuel was chosen in the middle of the first round, he was considered to be "raw" coming out and not close to a finished product, and that his season was derailed three separate times by nagging freak knee injuries.

This bodes very well for the future."

[Night Train]

I have this new shiny pitchfork and lost the receipt. Quit posting sensible stats and logic.

Where is my mob ?

[X-Era]

The problem is that it's one stat.

Ask TD if he can find stats that show EJ is not very good. Stats can lie.

For one thing he only played in about half the games. What would he have done with the other half? No way to know. He could have been real bad, real good, or just about the same. And that stat could be drastically affected by basically doubling the data.

I haven't seen enough of EJ to form a conclusion yet. I've seen good and bad but not enough to label him yet.

[Night Train]

I haven't seen enough of EJ to form a conclusion yet.

I'm pretty sure that's the point.

[gebobs]

His passer rating doesn't mean squat if he's not on the field.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

The eye test results from those QBs after rookie season: Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Ryan, Newton, and the recent Luck, Griffin all looked to be very good. EJ is not in the bust looking category, just more in the main stream of "not sure" group. That's where the problem is because we all want to be certain that we got the guy and we don't know.

[Saratoga Slim]

The eye test results from those QBs after rookie season: Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Ryan, Newton, and the recent Luck, Griffin all looked to be very good. EJ is not in the bust looking category, just more in the main stream of "not sure" group. That's where the problem is because we all want to be certain that we got the guy and we don't know.

Yeah, I'd agree with this. My issue is I don't think the ceiling is as high as we initially thought. To me he feels like he will be competent guy who doesn't make many mistakes, but will never be elite.

As far as the passer rating stat that started this thread....that's encouraging, but it doesn't surprise me. EJ didn't make many mistakes. Other than that one 4 INT game against TB, and the 2 INTs against Baltimore, he never threw more than one pick in a game. And he had a pretty high completion rate too, because he frequently went to his outlet and avoided the mid to longer range throws. That makes your stats look better, but creates a very limited offense that's easy to defend.

You also have to take into account that he had a lot of help from the run game - we were 2nd in the NFL in rushing YPG. You'd think with us running that well, there would have been space in the secondary for him to take advantage of.

Please don't get me wrong - the guy didn't play badly for a rookie. In fact, he did what you want a rookie to do: avoid mistakes and don't hold the rest of the team back. My problem is that, based solely on my own opinion, the accuracy thing is a huge deal. I don't think you can fix it, and thus I don't think EJ's ceiling is as high as one would like to think, given his character, size, work ethic, and arm strength. Name one 'elite' QB that isn't extremely accurate. You can be short (Wilson, Brees), a jerk (Rothlisberger), and even have limited arm strength (Brees, Pey Pey), but you can't be inaccurate.

I just see this as another three year project that results in three years of average QB play and average results. After 14 years of no playoffs, I'm done with that. Keep drafting first day QB talent until we strike gold.

[gr8slayer]

The guy came into the league as a project, and simply shouldn't have had to be the starter from day one. Kolb going down really screwed up the plan for Manuel. After being thrust into the roll, I think he did a decent job.

[alohabillsfan]

The guy came into the league as a project, and simply shouldn't have had to be the starter from day one. Kolb going down really screwed up the plan for Manuel. After being thrust into the roll, I think he did a decent job.

How the hell is a guy that played at a major football program with the number of starts he had in a pro style offense a freaking project? Can Newton project yes, EJ nope. He has no ceiling

[Bangarang]

EJ missed a ton of reads and big play opportunities.

He just wasn't very good.

Even his best games would only be considered decent by NFL standards.

He has a lot of work to do.

[Bill Cody]

How the hell is a guy that played at a major football program with the number of starts he had in a pro style offense a freaking project? Can Newton project yes, EJ nope. He has no ceiling

2 years as a starter isn't a lot of starts.

[Typ0]

His work and growth during this offseason is what's going to tell the story on EJ. I think we have a QB that can make plays to win games in the NFL and who also won't make the big negative plays. That's exciting. We need him to stay on the field that is critical to his assessment as a QB in the NFL.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

I'd say when Nix drafted him knowing he's only a 2 year starter really surprised me because I know Nix subscribes to the theory that "if a guy has done in it in high school and done it in college, chances are he's going to do it in NFL." EJ didn't exactly do it in college. If you look at him as a Junior in college last year, he's well on his path.

Time will tell. I have a feeling he may be a different (kind) version of Flacco as the best scenario: hide behind a strong D and running game while developing and stepping up in some critical moments. But he's not your "franchise."

[SquishDaFish]

Like I said you have to give rookie qbs more than one year

[THATHURMANATOR]

His work and growth during this offseason is what's going to tell the story on EJ. I think we have a QB that can make plays to win games in the NFL and who also won't make the big negative plays. That's exciting. We need him to stay on the field that is critical to his assessment as a QB in the NFL.

Perfect post.

[WagonCircler]

How the hell is a guy that played at a major football program with the number of starts he had in a pro style offense a freaking project? Can Newton project yes, EJ nope. He has no ceiling

Because he has the mechanics of a 1979 Yugo.

[Saratoga Slim]

I'd say when Nix drafted him knowing he's only a 2 year starter really surprised me because I know Nix subscribes to the theory that "if a guy has done in it in high school and done it in college, chances are he's going to do it in NFL." EJ didn't exactly do it in college. If you look at him as a Junior in college last year, he's well on his path.

Time will tell. I have a feeling he may be a different (kind) version of Flacco as the best scenario: hide behind a strong D and running game while developing and stepping up in some critical moments. But he's not your "franchise."

I agree that that feels like the 'best case' scenario. And if he can be Flacco....that's obviously good enough to win with. I'd take Flacco over anything we've had since Kelly.

[jimmifli]

Completion rate and INT's are weighted heavier than yards per attempt and TD's per attempt. That favours a QB that throws safe short passes and doesn't turn the ball over. A QB in a WCO style offense should be above average just based on the scheme and QB rating formula.

Looking at a QB like Luck, in an offense that throws lots of middle distance and long passes, you would expect to see a lower completion percentage and more INTs and consequently a lower QB rating. That's something that needs to be considered when comparing QBs.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Luck, Roethlisberger, etc. are all college QBs looking at entire field in college so they were more ready for NFL. EJ's college coach said he only got to look at half the fields. There is reason they say EJ is a project.

[Bill Cody]

I'd say when Nix drafted him knowing he's only a 2 year starter really surprised me because I know Nix subscribes to the theory that "if a guy has done in it in high school and done it in college, chances are he's going to do it in NFL." EJ didn't exactly do it in college. If you look at him as a Junior in college last year, he's well on his path.

Time will tell. I have a feeling he may be a different (kind) version of Flacco as the best scenario: hide behind a strong D and running game while developing and stepping up in some critical moments. But he's not your "franchise."

If he can develop Flacco's deep ball I'm in

[psubills62]

He's better than Brandon Weeden! Woo!

Seriously, though, I'm not sure that study says much of anything other than "he did well for a rookie." There's no predictive merit to that study that I can see. Doesn't say anything about what he'll do in the future.

[kscdogbillsfan1221]

He's better than Brandon Weeden! Woo!

Seriously, though, I'm not sure that study says much of anything other than "he did well for a rookie." There's no predictive merit to that study that I can see. Doesn't say anything about what he'll do in the future.


i believe that's the point of the whole article

[ghz in pittsburgh]

If he can develop Flacco's deep ball I'm in
I don't get so hung up on one type of throw for QBs. Losman had, and probably still has, a great deep ball, but that didn't get him anywhere.

When I saw Flacco in his earlier career, sometimes I don't know what he's looking at. Every so often, he made a play that reminded you why they drafted him in the 1st. Then in some critical moment you said to yourself that he got something there.

EJ reminded me somewhat of that feeling (unlike Roethlisberger's beginning - you just know he got it). Notice I said made a play, not necessarily made a great throw. That's how I feel about EJ. Overall, as I said before, I think he's like swimming against tide this season (tide being NFL speed, new exposure to NFL offensive plays, new players). I predict he'd still show a lot of growing pains next year but towards the end, we should see a more defined traits of EJ Manuel as an NFL QB. I do, however, worry about his injuries, not as much as lingering effect, more of an issue.

[alohabillsfan]

31 starts hot rod!

[alohabillsfan]

2 years as a starter isn't a lot of starts.

31 starts hot rod! And yes that's a lot of starts :)

[better days]

I don't get so hung up on one type of throw for QBs. Losman had, and probably still has, a great deep ball, but that didn't get him anywhere.

When I saw Flacco in his earlier career, sometimes I don't know what he's looking at. Every so often, he made a play that reminded you why they drafted him in the 1st. Then in some critical moment you said to yourself that he got something there.

EJ reminded me somewhat of that feeling (unlike Roethlisberger's beginning - you just know he got it). Notice I said made a play, not necessarily made a great throw. That's how I feel about EJ. Overall, as I said before, I think he's like swimming against tide this season (tide being NFL speed, new exposure to NFL offensive plays, new players). I predict he'd still show a lot of growing pains next year but towards the end, we should see a more defined traits of EJ Manuel as an NFL QB. I do, however, worry about his injuries, not as much as lingering effect, more of an issue.

When Wilfork injured Losman with an illegal hit, the Bills offense was changed to suit Trent's skill set.
It was no longer a downfield offense, it was changed to a West Coast offense.

You have to wonder how Losman would have turned out if not for that injury.

[TacklingDummy]

Ask TD if he can find stats that show EJ is not very good. Stats can lie.


You mean like being ranked 28th Comp. %, 29th in RATE, 33rd YDS/G, and 32nd in YPS/A?

[justasportsfan]

When Wilfork injured Losman with an illegal hit, the Bills offense was changed to suit Trent's skill set.
It was no longer a downfield offense, it was changed to a West Coast offense.

You have to wonder how Losman would have turned out if not for that injury.
I disagree. Trent was a better fit to play Jaurons philosophy. Play it safe, play not to lose.

[Oaf]

What about QBR, which factors in variables like situational efficiency? I could care less about his passing yards, or TD:INT ratio when we need to put a team away by going up two scores, or need to throw the ball past 5 yards to climb back into a game.

[better days]

I disagree. Trent was a better fit to play Jaurons philosophy. Play it safe, play not to lose.

I agree, that is the reason Jauron was happy to put an offense in place that suited Trent which was the West Coast offense..........an offense that did not match Losman's skill set at all.

[starrymessenger]

Wayne Arnold is a delirious EJ fanboy and a lunatic.
The things EJ does poorly today he has always done poorly and there is nothing to suggest that he will ever do them well.
He is not Joe Flacco. JF has an absolute cannon for an arm and knows how to use it, meaning he has good field vision, can properly lead his receivers, can make all the throws, and can fit them into small windows, all more often than not.
EJ is not likely to suddenly start doing those things, or even gradually, having never done them before.
If his knees are a problem, his brain is a bigger problem.
To me it looks like his ceiling is game manager, and a lower level one at that.
Absolutely don't ever see him carrying an offence the way top QBs can.

[better days]

Wayne Arnold is a delirious EJ fanboy and a lunatic.
The things EJ does poorly today he has always done poorly and there is nothing to suggest that he will ever do them well.
He is not Joe Flacco. JF has an absolute cannon for an arm and knows how to use it, meaning he has good field vision, can properly lead his receivers, can make all the throws, and can fit them into small windows, all more often than not.
EJ is not likely to suddenly start doing those things, or even gradually, having never done them before.
If his knees are a problem, his brain is a bigger problem.
To me it looks like his ceiling is game manager, and a lower level one at that.
Absolutely don't ever see him carrying an offence the way top QBs can.

It may be the case that EJ never becomes an ELITE QB.

But Flacco & Eli proved you don't need an elite QB to win the Super Bowl.

And EJ was the Winning QB when the Bills played the Ravens & Flacco.

[SquishDaFish]

Wayne Arnold is a delirious EJ fanboy and a lunatic.
The things EJ does poorly today he has always done poorly and there is nothing to suggest that he will ever do them well.
He is not Joe Flacco. JF has an absolute cannon for an arm and knows how to use it, meaning he has good field vision, can properly lead his receivers, can make all the throws, and can fit them into small windows, all more often than not.
EJ is not likely to suddenly start doing those things, or even gradually, having never done them before.
If his knees are a problem, his brain is a bigger problem.
To me it looks like his ceiling is game manager, and a lower level one at that.
Absolutely don't ever see him carrying an offence the way top QBs can.



Man I'm remembering this thread. Your going to eat those words and crow if your wrong in a year or two

[BillsFever21]

I remember Trent Edwards had a great looking completion percentage and QB rating early in his career from duping off passes all game. That's basically what EJ did this season.

[TigerJ]

The eye test results from those QBs after rookie season: Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Ryan, Newton, and the recent Luck, Griffin all looked to be very good. EJ is not in the bust looking category, just more in the main stream of "not sure" group. That's where the problem is because we all want to be certain that we got the guy and we don't know.If it looked pretty certain that Manuel is a bust, I'd be on the "draft a QB bandwagon." I'd like to know for certain he's a franchise QB, but I guess I'm a little more sanguine about dealing with the uncertainty of waiting until we can be sure. It comes from being old, I guess.

[starrymessenger]

b
Man I'm remembering this thread. Your going to eat those words and crow if your wrong in a year or two

I will gladly eat those words if I am mistaken.
EJ looks to be a great guy and I would like nothing more than to see him succeed, since that would be good for the Bills.
And the fact that I don't see it probably means squat so I guess that's a positive.

From thirty thousand feet there are probably three core competences that contribute to the making of a genuine starting caliber NFL QB. To say that there are three does not mean that they are equally weighted.

He needs to be athletic, not necessarily like Cam or RG3, but very athletic nevertheless in executing the most basic requirements of the position. All good QBs have that. It includes having a body that when exposed to the violence of the game is not injury prone. EJ is a great athlete, more athletic than he needs to be in order to succeed, but he may be susceptible to injury, so it is hard to simply sign off on this requirement as a no brainer in his case.

The QB needs to lead. That means that his teammates must respect and follow him. To some extent this begs the question because you do have to execute before you can have the necessary credibility. But just looking at the so-called intangibles for a moment, and that we have heard so much about, what exactly does that mean? I don't think it means being a nice guy or having a good personality, or acing the interview process. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are not nice people when it comes to playing football. In other words a good QB needs a healthy dose of uncompromising nasty and I haven't seen that from EJ yet. So I don't know if you can just put a check mark next to the heading "intangibles", as most people assume.

Lastly, and this may be the factor to be most heavily weighted, the QB has to demonstrate the physical skills that are entirely peculiar to the requirements of playing the position. They have been better described by other posters but they include the intuitive ability to sense pressure in the pocket and to buy time in a small and chaotic space while continuing to see the field and, in particular, anticipating the probable development of action and responding with lightning quick and appropriate decisions. The very best QBs are unable to do this all the time. Even the HOFamers will fail with some regularity because, amongst other reasons, it's just that hard to do. But regardless of the sport the ability, and really it's a gift, of anticipating the probable course of action and responding accordingly is arguably the most important attribute of the great pro athlete. Gretzky used to say that he was always a few steps ahead of the opposition to explain his knack for advantageously positioning himself. Maybe this is not fundamental to all positions in team sports, or is so only to varying degrees, but it certainly is for NFL QBs.

The impression that people who are skeptical about EJ's prospects have is that he is especially wooden in this all important area, and the problem is that these particular attributes seem to be innate. You don't learn them. You wake up with them or you don't. Having never seen it, the expectation is inevitably that you never will.

I think the Bills should look at adding a QB in the middle rounds of this years draft ( because they are not taking one early) if a good prospect falls to them. Based on what we have seen, standing pat with EJ would look a lot like continuing neglect of the all important position. You are just not going to win anything without a good QB.

[The Jokeman]

I remember Trent Edwards had a great looking completion percentage and QB rating early in his career from duping off passes all game. That's basically what EJ did this season.

and yet looking at stats, EJ had a better rookie season than Trent did. Below are the stats with EJ on top and Trent below

10 games 180/306 58.8% 1,972 Yards 6.44 YPA 11 TDs 9 INTS 77.7 QB Rating
10 games 151/269 56.1% 1,630 Yards 6.06 YPA 07 TDs 8 INTs 70.4 QB Rating


and truth be told most here were very pleased with what Trent did but only soured on him because he got hurt in Arizona and never played the same. While I will agree that QB rating alone isn't a fair analysis of a QB I think the poster of the original threat that he's more on track to actual study to see what EJ did and compare it to some of his counter parts. I mean if you look at EJ's numbers to say Ryan Tannehill's rookie year and you know what they're very telling both came out with the thought neither was NFL ready but many Bills fans were saying they'd welcome Tannehill as our QB prior to us shutting him out in Week 16: For the state gurus here were his rookie numbers:

16 games 282/484 58.3% 3,294 Yards 6.81 YPA 12 TDs 13 INTs 76.1 QB Rating

and what did the Dolphins do this offseason? They added better receivers in Mike Wallace and Brandon Gibson and you know what? Tannehill looked even better this year. Hopefully we follow suit this offseason and bring in a veteran or two to help EJ. I'll keep calling for James Jones as think he's what we need here. As I was harping on Brandon Gibson last offseason but that seemed to fall on deaf ears. Yet my number 1 target as an UFA is Dennis Pitta who think could definitely give us a legitimate move the chains type TE we've lacked since losing Jay Riemersma years ago.

[BillsFever21]

Anybody who thought Trent Edwards was good and was happy with him as our QB was drinking the Kool-Aid. He sucked from day one and that's why he was labeled "Trentative." Hell I started calling him that before it even picked up steam on the local media.

Using the Arizona game as an excuse for him says it all. A good QB doesn't go down the tubes because of one concussion. He just wasn't any good from the start. I'm not saying that EJ is the next Trent Edwards but that's the kind of season that he had for the most part.

[YardRat]

Anybody that thinks they've got a QB's future pegged after one season is a dumbass...good or bad.

[The Jokeman]

Anybody who thought Trent Edwards was good and was happy with him as our QB was drinking the Kool-Aid. He sucked from day one and that's why he was labeled "Trentative." Hell I started calling him that before it even picked up steam on the local media.

Using the Arizona game as an excuse for him says it all. A good QB doesn't go down the tubes because of one concussion. He just wasn't any good from the start. I'm not saying that EJ is the next Trent Edwards but that's the kind of season that he had for the most part.

Would you be happy with a QB in his first year had a stat line of:

264/413 63.9% 2843 Yards 6.9 YPA 18 TDs and 12 INTs?

As that's what Tom Brady did. Hardly earth shattering but good enough to win a Super Bowl. EJ's no Brady but truth be told QB stats can be good or bad depending how you want to spin them and I can tell you in watching EJ play it was obvious to me he is a QB versus a thrower like Geno Smith. Sure he's got to improve and if he doesn't then we're in trouble but to say he completely sucked because he didn't stay healthy or didn't throw a lot of TDs or xxx is foolish. Give the guy his 40 or so games to give him a full judgement. I think some might be surprised at the results.

because if you prorate EJ's stats to 15 games like Brady played his first year then stats look like this

270/459 58.8% 2958 Yards 6.4 YPA 17 TDs and 14 INTs. Just some food for thought.

[BillsFever21]

I never said I totally wrote him off. I want him to succeed for the sake of the Bills and with him being from Florida St. He needs to improve far and above from last season. I just don't see an elite QB. Maybe an average QB but nobody who will be elite.

Stats are deceiving and only part of the equation. Whether the player is a rookie or not you expect him to hit regular passes that almost any starting QB makes on a regular basis. Manuel far from did that this season and didn't have any downfield touch or accuracy. You also expect him to make a decent number of big plays that shows he has it in him. Outside of a few big plays it was nothing but dink and dunk the entire year and then his accuracy wasn't even great on them. That's why he had a Trent Edwards type of rookie season. We can only hope he isn't Trent 2.0 or we're screwed for several more years.

[The Jokeman]

I never said I totally wrote him off. I want him to succeed for the sake of the Bills and with him being from Florida St. He needs to improve far and above from last season. I just don't see an elite QB. Maybe an average QB but nobody who will be elite.

Stats are deceiving and only part of the equation. Whether the player is a rookie or not you expect him to hit regular passes that almost any starting QB makes on a regular basis. Manuel far from did that this season and didn't have any downfield touch or accuracy. You also expect him to make a decent number of big plays that shows he has it in him. Outside of a few big plays it was nothing but dink and dunk the entire year and then his accuracy wasn't even great on them. That's why he had a Trent Edwards type of rookie season. We can only hope he isn't Trent 2.0 or we're screwed for several more years.

and you know what even with our best QB of the history of the franchise who some would call elite because he's in the HOF we never won a Super Bowl. In part because I think the offense he played ultimately killed his D but that's an argument for another day honestly to me all EJ has to show is that he can be stay healthy, be above average and if we pair that with our running game and hopefully an improved D we might see some losses we saw against the Chiefs, Bengals, Falcons not happen and quickly become a true Wild Card contender.

[YardRat]

There isn't anything that EJ didn't do well this season that can't be improved. No part of his skill set is written in stone.

Of course, there isn't any part that couldn't also regress...

[TacklingDummy]

Unless a QB falls to them in the draft, EJ is our only hope. As much as I think he sucks, he's our only shot.
Please prove me wrong.

[Bangarang]

Would you be happy with a QB in his first year had a stat line of:

264/413 63.9% 2843 Yards 6.9 YPA 18 TDs and 12 INTs?

As that's what Tom Brady did. Hardly earth shattering but good enough to win a Super Bowl. EJ's no Brady but truth be told QB stats can be good or bad depending how you want to spin them and I can tell you in watching EJ play it was obvious to me he is a QB versus a thrower like Geno Smith. Sure he's got to improve and if he doesn't then we're in trouble but to say he completely sucked because he didn't stay healthy or didn't throw a lot of TDs or xxx is foolish. Give the guy his 40 or so games to give him a full judgement. I think some might be surprised at the results.

because if you prorate EJ's stats to 15 games like Brady played his first year then stats look like this

270/459 58.8% 2958 Yards 6.4 YPA 17 TDs and 14 INTs. Just some food for thought.

To be clear, Brady didn't play his rookie year.

[JohnnyGold]

The Patriots cheating has affected the league in so many ways, perhaps none more so than the casual fans insistence that a "franchise" quarterback is something that you can just stumble upon.

Since Aikman in 96, no quarterback has won 3 championships. Aikman, Montana, and Bradshaw are the only quarterbacks to win more than 2 Super Bowls. Ever. Just the fact that there are 2 quarterbacks playing right now who have won multiple championships (Eli + Big Ben) is an amazing thing in and of itself. It is an exceedingly rare occurrence, in the history of the league, to field a team with a quarterback that wins more than one super bowl.

With Brady and the Patriots "winning" 3 superbowls to start this millenium, there is an entire generation of football fans that witnessed a team that looked too good to be true win super bowl after super bowl, by a golden boy quarterback... and now every restless fan base thinks that unless a qb is some sort of god, the organization needs to blow it up and start over. When the reality is, if you find a qb that is even above average (andy dalton, cam newton), your best bet is to surround them with talent, and hope your team is lucky enough to win the super bowl.

Jauron's quote (rightly) gets a lot of bad press in buffalo--but it is hard to win in the NFL. There are 32 teams in the league, and it's a single elimination tournament. The Pats and Brady made it look easy--but they cheated!

Is EJ Joe Montana? Nope. No one is. But guess what? NBA teams don't blow up their roster every year because their small forward isn't michael jordan.

[gebobs]

The Pats and Brady made it look easy--but they cheated!
Yes that was years ago and still the Bills can't beat them.

We are Brady's ***** now even more than we were Griese's. How awful was that run against the Fish in the 70's? This is way worse. Back then, people were pissed. But eventually, fans realized that being pissed didn't help. Wilson was always going to fail. He always did. He made two or three decision that were right and they all coalesced in the lat 80's. Before or since then, the franchise was a disaster.

[TacklingDummy]

There's been 47 Super Bowls.
38 Started by Hall of Fame Quarterbacks.
18 More by future HOF QB's. Not counting Flacco, Kaepernick, or McNair.
Out of 94 Super Bowl starting QB's, 56 of them are HOF or future HOFs.

[JohnnyGold]

Yes that was years ago and still the Bills can't beat them.

We are Brady's ***** now even more than we were Griese's. How awful was that run against the Fish in the 70's? This is way worse. Back then, people were pissed. But eventually, fans realized that being pissed didn't help. Wilson was always going to fail. He always did. He made two or three decision that were right and they all coalesced in the lat 80's. Before or since then, the franchise was a disaster.

I'm not referring to the Bills lack of success vs. the Patriots in any way, shape, or form.

I'm implying that the Patriots (specifically Brady's) contrived "success" has created a myth of the supernatural quarterback. There has been one in league history: Joe Montana. These guys don't come around once every 10 years, once every 5 years... they come around once a life time. Brady didn't win the games that he is in the record books as winning. If you view the league over the last 20 years through that lens, it can be seen as a sport where a team with a good defense and a strong running game can ride solid QB play to a championship... if you have a great qb (Rothlisberger, Eli, yes Brady, Manning) you might get to the Super Bowl once or twice every 5 years, and be given that chance to win it.

As I said: the unintended consequence of the league not stripping the Patriots titles is that fans who grew up watching Brady "win" championships now think that a qb like Manning (1-1 in the Super Bowl, 1 ring) is a "choker", and the ceiling is a guy like Tom Brady. It's just not true. With our defense, our running game, and a healthy EJ Manuel for 16 games, the Buffalo Bills could very easily make it to the field of 8 in the NFL playoffs. Every single year. Could they win the Super Bowl? Who knows--maybe if they get lucky enough, like last years Ravens. That's why we watch the games!

[JohnnyGold]

There's been 47 Super Bowls.
38 Started by Hall of Fame Quarterbacks.
18 More by future HOF QB's. Not counting Flacco, Kaepernick, or McNair.
Out of 94 Super Bowl starting QB's, 56 of them are HOF or future HOFs.

Worst use of a statistic ever.

They made the Hall of Fame because of their Super Bowl wins buddy.

[TacklingDummy]

Worst use of a statistic ever.

They made the Hall of Fame because of their Super Bowl wins buddy.
Not all 38 won a Super Bowl. Kelly, Marino, Tarkenton just for example.

[The Jokeman]

To be clear, Brady didn't play his rookie year.

True but those were his first years number as a starting QB. He actually put them up in his 2nd year in the NFL.

[justasportsfan]

Anybody who thought Trent Edwards was good and was happy with him as our QB was drinking the Kool-Aid. He sucked from day one and that's why he was labeled "Trentative." Hell I started calling him that before it even picked up steam on the local media.

Using the Arizona game as an excuse for him says it all. A good QB doesn't go down the tubes because of one concussion. He just wasn't any good from the start. I'm not saying that EJ is the next Trent Edwards but that's the kind of season that he had for the most part.

As much as I dislike Trent now, he was very efficient early on before Jauron got in his head down the road.

[justasportsfan]

and yet looking at stats, EJ had a better rookie season than Trent did. Below are the stats with EJ on top and Trent below

10 games 180/306 58.8% 1,972 Yards 6.44 YPA 11 TDs 9 INTS 77.7 QB Rating
10 games 151/269 56.1% 1,630 Yards 6.06 YPA 07 TDs 8 INTs 70.4 QB Rating


and truth be told most here were very pleased with what Trent did but only soured on him because he got hurt in Arizona and never played the same. While I will agree that QB rating alone isn't a fair analysis of a QB I think the poster of the original threat that he's more on track to actual study to see what EJ did and compare it to some of his counter parts. I mean if you look at EJ's numbers to say Ryan Tannehill's rookie year and you know what they're very telling both came out with the thought neither was NFL ready but many Bills fans were saying they'd welcome Tannehill as our QB prior to us shutting him out in Week 16: For the state gurus here were his rookie numbers:

16 games 282/484 58.3% 3,294 Yards 6.81 YPA 12 TDs 13 INTs 76.1 QB Rating

and what did the Dolphins do this offseason? They added better receivers in Mike Wallace and Brandon Gibson and you know what? Tannehill looked even better this year. Hopefully we follow suit this offseason and bring in a veteran or two to help EJ. I'll keep calling for James Jones as think he's what we need here. As I was harping on Brandon Gibson last offseason but that seemed to fall on deaf ears. Yet my number 1 target as an UFA is Dennis Pitta who think could definitely give us a legitimate move the chains type TE we've lacked since losing Jay Riemersma years ago.

thats pretty scary .Trent 3rd round draft pick . EJ 1st rd. draft pick even though some say he should've been drafted where Trent was. Almost the same nos. EJ has far more talent but he seems to have the same lack of confidence as Trent throwing the ball even though EJ hasn't had a concussion injury yet.

I still think EJ has a ton of talent in the world but he needs to fix his accuracy , his reads and his passing confidence

[stuckincincy]

thats pretty scary .Trent 3rd round draft pick . EJ 1st rd. draft pick even though some say he should've been drafted where Trent was. Almost the same nos. EJ has far more talent but he seems to have the same lack of confidence as Trent throwing the ball even though EJ hasn't had a concussion injury yet.

I still think EJ has a ton of talent in the world but he needs to fix his accuracy , his reads and his passing confidence

I still rail against their fast pace/no-huddle offense. IMO, it hurt Manuel's learning curve by lessening the time he had to study the opposing defenses, their sets, their tricks, etc.

[gebobs]

and yet looking at stats, EJ had a better rookie season than Trent did. Below are the stats with EJ on top and Trent below

10 games 180/306 58.8% 1,972 Yards 6.44 YPA 11 TDs 9 INTS 77.7 QB Rating
10 games 151/269 56.1% 1,630 Yards 6.06 YPA 07 TDs 8 INTs 70.4 QB Rating
Better. Not a lot better. That's actually kind of depressing that they are that close.


and truth be told most here were very pleased with what Trent did
Certainly. No one expected much from Tred aside from a certain apparently senile coach. But expectations are higher for EJ. Perhaps unrealistically. Based more on where the Bills drafted him than expert consensus. Here's hoping he progresses further than Tred did.

[The last buffalo fan]

Are you ****ing kidding me? So you mean this is not real?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ir8UwEaFpmw

C'mon, you got to be kidding ....Superbowl here we go!!!

[justasportsfan]

I still rail against their fast pace/no-huddle offense. IMO, it hurt Manuel's learning curve by lessening the time he had to study the opposing defenses, their sets, their tricks, etc.

they probably thought that seeing Pettines multiple looks at camp helped EJ read defenses. I think its more of EJ refusing to pull the trigger was the problem because when he let it fly against Sexy Rexy's D, he did very well in the 2nd game.

[justasportsfan]

Are you ****ing kidding me? So you mean this is not real?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ir8UwEaFpmw

C'mon, you got to be kidding ....Superbowl here we go!!!when players are actually going to hit you in a real game and the throws actually count, EJ panics.

[stuckincincy]

they probably thought that seeing Pettines multiple looks at camp helped EJ read defenses. I think its more of EJ refusing to pull the trigger was the problem because when he let it fly against Sexy Rexy's D, he did very well in the 2nd game.

I think they hyped, for ticket sales. No way would I deny a rookie the necessary education, however painful it may be. Perhaps that's why they employed no qb coach - I suspect if they did, he would be a) vocal about it, b) canned during the season, or c) just cashed the paycheck. :(

[Historian]

Because he has the mechanics of a 1979 Yugo.


I think the proper analogy would be a 1979 Ford pickup.

May not have the smoothest ride, but can take the punnishment.

[gebobs]

I think the proper analogy would be a 1979 Ford pickup.

May not have the smoothest ride, but can take the punnishment.

Though in the shop 3 days a week.

[TacklingDummy]

Are you ****ing kidding me? So you mean this is not real?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ir8UwEaFpmw

C'mon, you got to be kidding ....Superbowl here we go!!!
The problem with that test is that none of the targets are moving.

[JCBills]

He's better than Brandon Weeden! Woo!

Seriously, though, I'm not sure that study says much of anything other than "he did well for a rookie." There's no predictive merit to that study that I can see. Doesn't say anything about what he'll do in the future.

That was kinda the point.

If you ever come across a definitive future-predicting analysis, please do share :D

[JCBills]

Better. Not a lot better. That's actually kind of depressing that they are that close.


Certainly. No one expected much from Tred aside from a certain apparently senile coach. But expectations are higher for EJ. Perhaps unrealistically. Based more on where the Bills drafted him than expert consensus. Here's hoping he progresses further than Tred did.

People were really excited when Trent put up those numbers. Why? Because it was 7 years ago when the playoff drought wasn't nearly as long. People were patient and willing to see someone develop. Now? People are ready to crucify a guy based on 10 games.

[better days]

The problem with that test is that none of the targets are moving.

QB's do not throw to a moving target. They throw to a SPOT on the field where the receiver is expected to be at the same time the ball arrives.

EJ showed without doubt he can throw to any spot on the field.

[BillsFever21]

Worst use of a statistic ever.

They made the Hall of Fame because of their Super Bowl wins buddy.

Or maybe the majority of them won the Super Bowl because they were great QB's who ended up in the HOF?

Doug Williams, Mark Rypien, Jeff Hostetler, Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl but I don't see them heading for Canton anytime soon.

[better days]

Or maybe the majority of them won the Super Bowl because they were great QB's who ended up in the HOF?

Doug Williams, Mark Rypien, Jeff Hostetler, Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl but I don't see them heading for Canton anytime soon.

LOVE Doug Williams. The BEST QB on that list by far. If EJ is anywhere near as good as Doug, the Bills will be contending for the Super Bowl for a long time.

[YardRat]

when players are actually going to hit you in a real game and the throws actually count, EJ panics.

Actually, the best part of his game has been in clutch situations.

[YardRat]

The best path to the HOF for a QB is to be surrounded by great players and achieve team success. QB's get the lion's share of the glory, even though the majority of credit should be distributed elsewhere.

[Mace]

The best path to the HOF for a QB is to be surrounded by great players and achieve team success. QB's get the lion's share of the glory, even though the majority of credit should be distributed elsewhere.

In most cases yes, because even Pink can't get past they do not win them over and over with their eliteness or Rodgers would have a custom logo on the field.

[JCBills]

when players are actually going to hit you in a real game and the throws actually count, EJ panics.

I've watched him make a lot of impressive throws under pressure.

[The Jokeman]

The best path to the HOF for a QB is to be surrounded by great players and achieve team success. QB's get the lion's share of the glory, even though the majority of credit should be distributed elsewhere.

and that's why I always say the first word in the phrase "franchise QB" is franchise. I don't think many really study how much talent Joe Montana actually had around him to succeed or tend to forget that Jim Kelly really wasn't great until he got Thurman Thomas and James Lofton.

[Mouldsie]

This is a great argument for the 2 people that use QB rating in their argument for not believing in Manuel