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There have been impressive, comprehensive studies done in regards to goaltenders and their careers. They’ve come to a similar conclusion: Age 34 is when goalies begin to fall off dramatically.
How old will Miller be when the puck drops next season? He’ll be 34.
Two studies, in particular, clearly define the rapid decline:
• Pension Plan Puppets, a site affiliated with SB Nation and dedicated to the Toronto Maple Leafs, studied the save percentage of 200 goaltenders who have played 60-plus games since 1984. It shows how a goalie who put up a .912 save percentage at age 30 (Miller was .916) drops to .905 at age 34, .899 at age 35 and .892 by age 37.
• Copper and Blue, another SB Nation site serving the Edmonton Oilers’ community, focused on whether goalies are starters, backups or out of the league as they age. Age 34 is when the majority become backups. At age 35, there are more retired goalies than backups or starters.
Does it make sense for a rebuilding team to offer multiple years and big dollars to someone who might not have much left?
There are, of course, goalies who seem ageless. Martin Brodeur, Dominik Hasek and Patrick Roy put up stellar seasons in their mid-30s.
But is Miller in their class? Or does he belong with stellar netminders such as Eddie Belfour, Tom Barrasso, Mike Richter, Miikka Kiprusoff, Olaf Kolzig and Grant Fuhr? I’d go with the latter. While they could stop breakaways in their prime, they couldn’t beat the odds that face aging goaltenders.
How old will Miller be when the puck drops next season? He’ll be 34.
Two studies, in particular, clearly define the rapid decline:
• Pension Plan Puppets, a site affiliated with SB Nation and dedicated to the Toronto Maple Leafs, studied the save percentage of 200 goaltenders who have played 60-plus games since 1984. It shows how a goalie who put up a .912 save percentage at age 30 (Miller was .916) drops to .905 at age 34, .899 at age 35 and .892 by age 37.
• Copper and Blue, another SB Nation site serving the Edmonton Oilers’ community, focused on whether goalies are starters, backups or out of the league as they age. Age 34 is when the majority become backups. At age 35, there are more retired goalies than backups or starters.
Does it make sense for a rebuilding team to offer multiple years and big dollars to someone who might not have much left?
There are, of course, goalies who seem ageless. Martin Brodeur, Dominik Hasek and Patrick Roy put up stellar seasons in their mid-30s.
But is Miller in their class? Or does he belong with stellar netminders such as Eddie Belfour, Tom Barrasso, Mike Richter, Miikka Kiprusoff, Olaf Kolzig and Grant Fuhr? I’d go with the latter. While they could stop breakaways in their prime, they couldn’t beat the odds that face aging goaltenders.
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