Jairus Byrd - By The Numbers

[JCBills]

This is my newest blog piece for #BillsFanatics. Please rate it on the page (1-5 star option near the top) and of course comment and discuss.

http://billsfanatics.wordpress.com/2014/02/15/jairus-byrd-by-the-numbers/

[YardRat]

Re: Jairus Byrd - By The Numbers

Not worth the money, not elite, an average FS at best in cover 1, a ****ty me-first attitude, and statistically his last four seasons prove that his rookie year is an anomaly and not the norm (40%, or 9 of 22 ints, 33%, or 11 of 33 pds). Forced fumbles also dropped to a total of one last season, his first as the safety net. Granted, Jairus obviously had an excellent rookie campaign but even numbers-wise the last four seasons have been average, or slightly above.

He is worth a little more, and a better fit, for a cover 2 team (although still not worth #1 or elite dollars) so unless Schwartz is planning on deviating from Pettine's predominant c1 shell his value to the team isn't as high as it might have been last year at this time so let him walk or pull a sign and trade.

Numbers aside, he's decent in run support, but again not elite, and lacks the speed to be responsible for the entire backside. IMO he didn't display very good recognition skills from the deep spot last season, but it's hard to nail down if that was because of his ability or if he was just focusing more on trying to make the flashy play to improve his contract status going into this off season.

Just as a bonus, here are the QB's Byrd has gotten his picks from over the last four seasons...2010-An over the hill Brunell in a meaningless last game of the season...2011-John Beck (WAS), Sanchez (NYJ), Tebow (DEN)...2012-Cassel (KC), Kolb and Skelton (ARZ), Tannehill (MIA), Henne (JAX)...2013-Big Ben (PIT), G.Smith twice (NYJ), and Glennon (TAM). Woo-hoo...13 ints in four seasons, all but one against rookies and scrubs.

Let somebody else show him the money.

[JCBills]

Re: Jairus Byrd - By The Numbers

His overall value improved drastically as time went on. Yeah, the INT numbers went down, but his overall game improved. Pay the man, the pass D went from 20's range when he was out to #4 by season end.

[kishoph]

Re: Jairus Byrd - By The Numbers

His overall value improved drastically as time went on. Yeah, the INT numbers went down, but his overall game improved. Pay the man, the pass D went from 20's range when he was out to #4 by season end.

The first part of the season you also had Gilmore out and Aaron Williams playing the corner, who while he did do a fair job at corner, was no where near as effective as when he moved to safety later in the season. Also there was an aging Jim Leonard and an 3rd year back up Da'Norris Searcy filling the safety spots. The pass defense did improve greatly during the 2nd half of the season, but Byrd coming back was far from the sole reason it improved. If any DB had a bigger impact on the pass defense improving later in the season, I'd say it was Aaron Williams moving back to the safety position from the corner.

[YardRat]

Re: Jairus Byrd - By The Numbers

Unless you can eliminate all of the other variables that most likely contributed to the improvement of the statistical ranking of the pass defense over the course of the season, to attribute that achievement to one person is disingenuous, at best.

[DynaPaul]

Re: Jairus Byrd - By The Numbers

Let's pay him what he wants on a backloaded contract and then if his numbers drop force him to renegotiate.

[YardRat]

Re: Jairus Byrd - By The Numbers

Let's pay him what he wants on a backloaded contract and then if his numbers drop force him to renegotiate.

How would you force him to renegotiate?

[JCBills]

Re: Jairus Byrd - By The Numbers

The first part of the season you also had Gilmore out and Aaron Williams playing the corner, who while he did do a fair job at corner, was no where near as effective as when he moved to safety later in the season. Also there was an aging Jim Leonard and an 3rd year back up Da'Norris Searcy filling the safety spots. The pass defense did improve greatly during the 2nd half of the season, but Byrd coming back was far from the sole reason it improved. If any DB had a bigger impact on the pass defense improving later in the season, I'd say it was Aaron Williams moving back to the safety position from the corner.

I didn't say it was the sole reason, I had more written on that but cut it down some.

[Lone Stranger]

Re: Jairus Byrd - By The Numbers

Not worth the money, not elite, an average FS at best in cover 1, a ****ty me-first attitude, and statistically his last four seasons prove that his rookie year is an anomaly and not the norm (40%, or 9 of 22 ints, 33%, or 11 of 33 pds). Forced fumbles also dropped to a total of one last season, his first as the safety net. Granted, Jairus obviously had an excellent rookie campaign but even numbers-wise the last four seasons have been average, or slightly above.

He is worth a little more, and a better fit, for a cover 2 team (although still not worth #1 or elite dollars) so unless Schwartz is planning on deviating from Pettine's predominant c1 shell his value to the team isn't as high as it might have been last year at this time so let him walk or pull a sign and trade.

Numbers aside, he's decent in run support, but again not elite, and lacks the speed to be responsible for the entire backside. IMO he didn't display very good recognition skills from the deep spot last season, but it's hard to nail down if that was because of his ability or if he was just focusing more on trying to make the flashy play to improve his contract status going into this off season.

Just as a bonus, here are the QB's Byrd has gotten his picks from over the last four seasons...2010-An over the hill Brunell in a meaningless last game of the season...2011-John Beck (WAS), Sanchez (NYJ), Tebow (DEN)...2012-Cassel (KC), Kolb and Skelton (ARZ), Tannehill (MIA), Henne (JAX)...2013-Big Ben (PIT), G.Smith twice (NYJ), and Glennon (TAM). Woo-hoo...13 ints in four seasons, all but one against rookies and scrubs.

Let somebody else show him the money.

Very good analysis.

[The Beef]

Re: Jairus Byrd - By The Numbers

Just as a bonus, here are the QB's Byrd has gotten his picks from over the last four seasons...2010-An over the hill Brunell in a meaningless last game of the season...2011-John Beck (WAS), Sanchez (NYJ), Tebow (DEN)...2012-Cassel (KC), Kolb and Skelton (ARZ), Tannehill (MIA), Henne (JAX)...2013-Big Ben (PIT), G.Smith twice (NYJ), and Glennon (TAM). Woo-hoo...13 ints in four seasons, all but one against rookies and scrubs.

Let somebody else show him the money.

That is a double sided coin. If you're a great player you should be dogging out scrub QB's. On the flip side Tom Brady and the like are also great players, and the best QB's don't attack the best defenders. They go after Justin Rogers, Eddie Robinson, Chris Kelsay etc.

He is a top 5 FS, and who else on our team has put up numbers like that over a 5 year period? I'm guessing Gilmore, McKelvin, and Aaron Williams have as many INT's combined as Byrd has in his career.

[Raptor]

Re: Jairus Byrd - By The Numbers

Not worth the money, not elite, an average FS at best in cover 1, a ****ty me-first attitude, and statistically his last four seasons prove that his rookie year is an anomaly and not the norm (40%, or 9 of 22 ints, 33%, or 11 of 33 pds). Forced fumbles also dropped to a total of one last season, his first as the safety net. Granted, Jairus obviously had an excellent rookie campaign but even numbers-wise the last four seasons have been average, or slightly above.

He is worth a little more, and a better fit, for a cover 2 team (although still not worth #1 or elite dollars) so unless Schwartz is planning on deviating from Pettine's predominant c1 shell his value to the team isn't as high as it might have been last year at this time so let him walk or pull a sign and trade.

Numbers aside, he's decent in run support, but again not elite, and lacks the speed to be responsible for the entire backside. IMO he didn't display very good recognition skills from the deep spot last season, but it's hard to nail down if that was because of his ability or if he was just focusing more on trying to make the flashy play to improve his contract status going into this off season.

Just as a bonus, here are the QB's Byrd has gotten his picks from over the last four seasons...2010-An over the hill Brunell in a meaningless last game of the season...2011-John Beck (WAS), Sanchez (NYJ), Tebow (DEN)...2012-Cassel (KC), Kolb and Skelton (ARZ), Tannehill (MIA), Henne (JAX)...2013-Big Ben (PIT), G.Smith twice (NYJ), and Glennon (TAM). Woo-hoo...13 ints in four seasons, all but one against rookies and scrubs.

Let somebody else show him the money.

wow it's like you have never watched him play...or you have and you have no idea what elite Safety play is or understand this game at all ....I haven't decided on A or B yet

[Mouldsie]

Re: Jairus Byrd - By The Numbers

wow it's like you have never watched him play...or you have and you have no idea what elite Safety play is or understand this game at all ....I haven't decided on A or B yet

He's just a bills fan backwards rationalizing from the event he is assuming will take place (we lose him) based on past precedent

[Goobylal]

Re: Jairus Byrd - By The Numbers

The first part of the season you also had Gilmore out and Aaron Williams playing the corner, who while he did do a fair job at corner, was no where near as effective as when he moved to safety later in the season. Also there was an aging Jim Leonard and an 3rd year back up Da'Norris Searcy filling the safety spots. The pass defense did improve greatly during the 2nd half of the season, but Byrd coming back was far from the sole reason it improved. If any DB had a bigger impact on the pass defense improving later in the season, I'd say it was Aaron Williams moving back to the safety position from the corner.

Justin Rogers.

Let's pay him what he wants on a backloaded contract and then if his numbers drop force him to renegotiate.

That is a double sided coin. If you're a great player you should be dogging out scrub QB's. On the flip side Tom Brady and the like are also great players, and the best QB's don't attack the best defenders. They go after Justin Rogers, Eddie Robinson, Chris Kelsay etc.

He is a top 5 FS, and who else on our team has put up numbers like that over a 5 year period? I'm guessing Gilmore, McKelvin, and Aaron Williams have as many INT's combined as Byrd has in his career.

Ed Reed INT'd many of the great ones. And he's the only guy I'd consider paying $9M/year to, when he was in his prime.

[Novacane]

Re: Jairus Byrd - By The Numbers

1 star

[YardRat]

Re: Jairus Byrd - By The Numbers

That is a double sided coin. If you're a great player you should be dogging out scrub QB's. On the flip side Tom Brady and the like are also great players, and the best QB's don't attack the best defenders. They go after Justin Rogers, Eddie Robinson, Chris Kelsay etc.

He is a top 5 FS, and who else on our team has put up numbers like that over a 5 year period? I'm guessing Gilmore, McKelvin, and Aaron Williams have as many INT's combined as Byrd has in his career.

He's a free safety, not a cornerback. Elite free safeties can make plays against anybody, not just rookies. Of all of the players you listed, exactly one played safety for one season.