Jairus Byrd - By The Numbers

[JCBills]

This is my newest blog piece for #BillsFanatics. Please rate it on the page (1-5 star option near the top) and of course comment and discuss.

http://billsfanatics.wordpress.com/2014/02/15/jairus-byrd-by-the-numbers/

[YardRat]

Not worth the money, not elite, an average FS at best in cover 1, a ****ty me-first attitude, and statistically his last four seasons prove that his rookie year is an anomaly and not the norm (40%, or 9 of 22 ints, 33%, or 11 of 33 pds). Forced fumbles also dropped to a total of one last season, his first as the safety net. Granted, Jairus obviously had an excellent rookie campaign but even numbers-wise the last four seasons have been average, or slightly above.

He is worth a little more, and a better fit, for a cover 2 team (although still not worth #1 or elite dollars) so unless Schwartz is planning on deviating from Pettine's predominant c1 shell his value to the team isn't as high as it might have been last year at this time so let him walk or pull a sign and trade.

Numbers aside, he's decent in run support, but again not elite, and lacks the speed to be responsible for the entire backside. IMO he didn't display very good recognition skills from the deep spot last season, but it's hard to nail down if that was because of his ability or if he was just focusing more on trying to make the flashy play to improve his contract status going into this off season.

Just as a bonus, here are the QB's Byrd has gotten his picks from over the last four seasons...2010-An over the hill Brunell in a meaningless last game of the season...2011-John Beck (WAS), Sanchez (NYJ), Tebow (DEN)...2012-Cassel (KC), Kolb and Skelton (ARZ), Tannehill (MIA), Henne (JAX)...2013-Big Ben (PIT), G.Smith twice (NYJ), and Glennon (TAM). Woo-hoo...13 ints in four seasons, all but one against rookies and scrubs.

Let somebody else show him the money.

[JCBills]

His overall value improved drastically as time went on. Yeah, the INT numbers went down, but his overall game improved. Pay the man, the pass D went from 20's range when he was out to #4 by season end.

[kishoph]

His overall value improved drastically as time went on. Yeah, the INT numbers went down, but his overall game improved. Pay the man, the pass D went from 20's range when he was out to #4 by season end.

The first part of the season you also had Gilmore out and Aaron Williams playing the corner, who while he did do a fair job at corner, was no where near as effective as when he moved to safety later in the season. Also there was an aging Jim Leonard and an 3rd year back up Da'Norris Searcy filling the safety spots. The pass defense did improve greatly during the 2nd half of the season, but Byrd coming back was far from the sole reason it improved. If any DB had a bigger impact on the pass defense improving later in the season, I'd say it was Aaron Williams moving back to the safety position from the corner.

[YardRat]

Unless you can eliminate all of the other variables that most likely contributed to the improvement of the statistical ranking of the pass defense over the course of the season, to attribute that achievement to one person is disingenuous, at best.

[DynaPaul]

Let's pay him what he wants on a backloaded contract and then if his numbers drop force him to renegotiate.

[YardRat]

Let's pay him what he wants on a backloaded contract and then if his numbers drop force him to renegotiate.

How would you force him to renegotiate?

[JCBills]

The first part of the season you also had Gilmore out and Aaron Williams playing the corner, who while he did do a fair job at corner, was no where near as effective as when he moved to safety later in the season. Also there was an aging Jim Leonard and an 3rd year back up Da'Norris Searcy filling the safety spots. The pass defense did improve greatly during the 2nd half of the season, but Byrd coming back was far from the sole reason it improved. If any DB had a bigger impact on the pass defense improving later in the season, I'd say it was Aaron Williams moving back to the safety position from the corner.

I didn't say it was the sole reason, I had more written on that but cut it down some.

[Lone Stranger]

Not worth the money, not elite, an average FS at best in cover 1, a ****ty me-first attitude, and statistically his last four seasons prove that his rookie year is an anomaly and not the norm (40%, or 9 of 22 ints, 33%, or 11 of 33 pds). Forced fumbles also dropped to a total of one last season, his first as the safety net. Granted, Jairus obviously had an excellent rookie campaign but even numbers-wise the last four seasons have been average, or slightly above.

He is worth a little more, and a better fit, for a cover 2 team (although still not worth #1 or elite dollars) so unless Schwartz is planning on deviating from Pettine's predominant c1 shell his value to the team isn't as high as it might have been last year at this time so let him walk or pull a sign and trade.

Numbers aside, he's decent in run support, but again not elite, and lacks the speed to be responsible for the entire backside. IMO he didn't display very good recognition skills from the deep spot last season, but it's hard to nail down if that was because of his ability or if he was just focusing more on trying to make the flashy play to improve his contract status going into this off season.

Just as a bonus, here are the QB's Byrd has gotten his picks from over the last four seasons...2010-An over the hill Brunell in a meaningless last game of the season...2011-John Beck (WAS), Sanchez (NYJ), Tebow (DEN)...2012-Cassel (KC), Kolb and Skelton (ARZ), Tannehill (MIA), Henne (JAX)...2013-Big Ben (PIT), G.Smith twice (NYJ), and Glennon (TAM). Woo-hoo...13 ints in four seasons, all but one against rookies and scrubs.

Let somebody else show him the money.

Very good analysis.

[The Beef]

Just as a bonus, here are the QB's Byrd has gotten his picks from over the last four seasons...2010-An over the hill Brunell in a meaningless last game of the season...2011-John Beck (WAS), Sanchez (NYJ), Tebow (DEN)...2012-Cassel (KC), Kolb and Skelton (ARZ), Tannehill (MIA), Henne (JAX)...2013-Big Ben (PIT), G.Smith twice (NYJ), and Glennon (TAM). Woo-hoo...13 ints in four seasons, all but one against rookies and scrubs.

Let somebody else show him the money.

That is a double sided coin. If you're a great player you should be dogging out scrub QB's. On the flip side Tom Brady and the like are also great players, and the best QB's don't attack the best defenders. They go after Justin Rogers, Eddie Robinson, Chris Kelsay etc.

He is a top 5 FS, and who else on our team has put up numbers like that over a 5 year period? I'm guessing Gilmore, McKelvin, and Aaron Williams have as many INT's combined as Byrd has in his career.

[Raptor]

Not worth the money, not elite, an average FS at best in cover 1, a ****ty me-first attitude, and statistically his last four seasons prove that his rookie year is an anomaly and not the norm (40%, or 9 of 22 ints, 33%, or 11 of 33 pds). Forced fumbles also dropped to a total of one last season, his first as the safety net. Granted, Jairus obviously had an excellent rookie campaign but even numbers-wise the last four seasons have been average, or slightly above.

He is worth a little more, and a better fit, for a cover 2 team (although still not worth #1 or elite dollars) so unless Schwartz is planning on deviating from Pettine's predominant c1 shell his value to the team isn't as high as it might have been last year at this time so let him walk or pull a sign and trade.

Numbers aside, he's decent in run support, but again not elite, and lacks the speed to be responsible for the entire backside. IMO he didn't display very good recognition skills from the deep spot last season, but it's hard to nail down if that was because of his ability or if he was just focusing more on trying to make the flashy play to improve his contract status going into this off season.

Just as a bonus, here are the QB's Byrd has gotten his picks from over the last four seasons...2010-An over the hill Brunell in a meaningless last game of the season...2011-John Beck (WAS), Sanchez (NYJ), Tebow (DEN)...2012-Cassel (KC), Kolb and Skelton (ARZ), Tannehill (MIA), Henne (JAX)...2013-Big Ben (PIT), G.Smith twice (NYJ), and Glennon (TAM). Woo-hoo...13 ints in four seasons, all but one against rookies and scrubs.

Let somebody else show him the money.


wow it's like you have never watched him play...or you have and you have no idea what elite Safety play is or understand this game at all ....I haven't decided on A or B yet

[Mouldsie]

wow it's like you have never watched him play...or you have and you have no idea what elite Safety play is or understand this game at all ....I haven't decided on A or B yet
He's just a bills fan backwards rationalizing from the event he is assuming will take place (we lose him) based on past precedent

[Goobylal]

The first part of the season you also had Gilmore out and Aaron Williams playing the corner, who while he did do a fair job at corner, was no where near as effective as when he moved to safety later in the season. Also there was an aging Jim Leonard and an 3rd year back up Da'Norris Searcy filling the safety spots. The pass defense did improve greatly during the 2nd half of the season, but Byrd coming back was far from the sole reason it improved. If any DB had a bigger impact on the pass defense improving later in the season, I'd say it was Aaron Williams moving back to the safety position from the corner.
Justin Rogers.

Let's pay him what he wants on a backloaded contract and then if his numbers drop force him to renegotiate.


That is a double sided coin. If you're a great player you should be dogging out scrub QB's. On the flip side Tom Brady and the like are also great players, and the best QB's don't attack the best defenders. They go after Justin Rogers, Eddie Robinson, Chris Kelsay etc.

He is a top 5 FS, and who else on our team has put up numbers like that over a 5 year period? I'm guessing Gilmore, McKelvin, and Aaron Williams have as many INT's combined as Byrd has in his career.
Ed Reed INT'd many of the great ones. And he's the only guy I'd consider paying $9M/year to, when he was in his prime.

[Novacane]

1 star

[YardRat]

That is a double sided coin. If you're a great player you should be dogging out scrub QB's. On the flip side Tom Brady and the like are also great players, and the best QB's don't attack the best defenders. They go after Justin Rogers, Eddie Robinson, Chris Kelsay etc.

He is a top 5 FS, and who else on our team has put up numbers like that over a 5 year period? I'm guessing Gilmore, McKelvin, and Aaron Williams have as many INT's combined as Byrd has in his career.

He's a free safety, not a cornerback. Elite free safeties can make plays against anybody, not just rookies. Of all of the players you listed, exactly one played safety for one season.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Ed Reed INT'd many of the great ones. And he's the only guy I'd consider paying $9M/year to, when he was in his prime.

Just for giggles, here are Ed Reed's 64 INTs:

Jon Kitna - 2
Kelly Holcomb - 3
Carson Palmer - 6
Trent Green - 2
Donovan McNabb - 1
Kevin Kolb - 1
Jason Campbell - 3
Tony Romo - 2
David Garrard - 2
Ryan Fitzpatrick - 2
Colt McCoy - 2
Ben Roethlisberger - 3
Brian Griese - 1
David Carr - 1
Drew Brees (in San Diego) - 1
Jeff Blake - 1
Marc Bulger - 1
Anthony Wright - 1
Tommy Maddox - 1
Drew Bledsoe (in Buffalo) - 1
Jeff Garcia (in Cleveland) - 1
LaMont Jordon (the halfback) - 1
Vinny Testaverde - 1
Eli Manning (rookie year) - 1
Sage Rosenfels - 1
Charlie Frye - 1
Chris Simms - 1
Vince Young - 1
Kellen Clemens - 1
Derek Anderson - 3
Trent Dilfer - 1
Gus Frerotte - 1
Charlie Batch - 2
Tom Brady - 1
Matt Hasslebeck - 1
Peyton Manning - 1
Chad Henne - 1
Brian St. Pierre - 1
Andy Dalton - 2
Michael Vick - 1
Brandon Weeden - 1
Matt McGloin - 1
Ryan Tannehill - 1

So this leads me to a few thoughts.

Ed Reed has absolutely made Ohio his *****. He has 22 INTs (more than a third) and 5 pick sixes (of his 7) against Cleveland and Cincy. Second, all DBs feast on "rookies and scrubs." Look at that list, the vast majority are complete bums.

[YardRat]

wow it's like you have never watched him play...or you have and you have no idea what elite Safety play is or understand this game at all ....I haven't decided on A or B yet

I've watched him play his entire career...he's a much better fit for cover 2 than he is for cover 1. I can pull up several 'highlights' from this past season of him chugging behing RB's to the end zone, or deep sideline passes that were completed (or should have been) because the WR beat the corner and Byrd couldn't get there in time because A-he's too slow B-his read put him out of positon C-a combination of both. If you can pull up any of him running down a RB in the open field and preventing a longer gain/TD or a pass defensed on the sideline I'd love to see it.

I also understand what an elite FS is, and Byrd isn't one of them, especially in a Cover1.

[YardRat]

He's just a bills fan backwards rationalizing from the event he is assuming will take place (we lose him) based on past precedent

That's an awfully large and inaccurate assumption.

Why don't you tell us all why Byrd is such an elite FS in a defense that runs a predominantly C1 shell, and why he deserves #1 money.

[The Beef]

Just for giggles, here are Ed Reed's 64 INTs:

Jon Kitna - 2
Kelly Holcomb - 3
Carson Palmer - 6
Trent Green - 2
Donovan McNabb - 1
Kevin Kolb - 1
Jason Campbell - 3
Tony Romo - 2
David Garrard - 2
Ryan Fitzpatrick - 2
Colt McCoy - 2
Ben Roethlisberger - 3
Brian Griese - 1
David Carr - 1
Drew Brees (in San Diego) - 1
Jeff Blake - 1
Marc Bulger - 1
Anthony Wright - 1
Tommy Maddox - 1
Drew Bledsoe (in Buffalo) - 1
Jeff Garcia (in Cleveland) - 1
LaMont Jordon (the halfback) - 1
Vinny Testaverde - 1
Eli Manning (rookie year) - 1
Sage Rosenfels - 1
Charlie Frye - 1
Chris Simms - 1
Vince Young - 1
Kellen Clemens - 1
Derek Anderson - 3
Trent Dilfer - 1
Gus Frerotte - 1
Charlie Batch - 2
Tom Brady - 1
Matt Hasslebeck - 1
Peyton Manning - 1
Chad Henne - 1
Brian St. Pierre - 1
Andy Dalton - 2
Michael Vick - 1
Brandon Weeden - 1
Matt McGloin - 1
Ryan Tannehill - 1

So this leads me to a few thoughts.

Ed Reed has absolutely made Ohio his *****. He has 22 INTs (more than a third) and 5 pick sixes (of his 7) against Cleveland and Cincy. Second, all DBs feast on "rookies and scrubs." Look at that list, the vast majority are complete bums.


Thanks for doing the legwork UIUC. Not surprising, that's the life of a DB. As well Reed (who is a HOF'r) played on some all time great defenses and was given a great freedom to roam and not be counted on at all in the run game. I'm not discounting anything he did, I think he's the best FS that's played in quite some time. He had Willy Mays range in his prime.

Byrd isn't better than Thomas or Berry, but he is probably better than 28 other free safeties in the league. His ball skills and instincts are great, period. He's played on terrible defenses up until this year and has still been a playmaker. You just don't let legit All Pro talent walk without some type of compensation or player in the wings.

If Byrd walks and we pick a safety in round 2 that would be absolutely terrible.

Im not counting on a Duke Williams and Searcy platoon taking that next step. Searcy is great as a situational player, Williams is rather get to know in an emergency situation. He got about 11 snaps all year, I doubt he's going to make the leap in year 2.

[kishoph]

That's an awfully large and inaccurate assumption.

Why don't you tell us all why Byrd is such an elite FS in a defense that runs a predominantly C1 shell, and why he deserves #1 money.


Because Eugene Parker says so.

[Mike]

That's an awfully large and inaccurate assumption.

Why don't you tell us all why Byrd is such an elite FS in a defense that runs a predominantly C1 shell, and why he deserves #1 money.

We've had this debate before. We've had it Over and over and over again.

When real analyst break down Byrds game, play by play, season over season compared to his peers, the prognosis is in: simply he is an elite FS. This is unquestionable as he has one of the highest turnover percentages and highest impact on winning out of all FS (2012). In 2012, he single handedly influenced 3 wins and put Bills in position to win another 2+ games which they fumbled away. This again is the analysis on Byrd.


Overall, he's a rare talent. He has done this playing on terrible defenses. Can you imagine how good he would have been playing for the 2000 Ravens? If he got 9pics on a ****y Bills team imagine him playing for the 49ers, Seahawks, etc... He might have get 16pics? We will never know.

You will not be able to replace him easily. As for the $9million, the Bills have it. They are way bellow the Cap. We have cash and we have plenty of it!

Value of FS
In today's pass happy era, FS are worth the money! They are now responsible for covering huge TE's, doubling WR, etc...

It's a new NFL and DBs are worth their weight in Gold. If you don't believe me watch the Super Bowl and then watch it again. Seatle stopped the best offense ever, the best QB & WR tandem ever, because they had arguably the best secondary of all time. Lastly, Earl Thomas is a beast. Without him, do you think the game would have been a little different?

[stuckincincy]

It's a new NFL and DBs are worth their weight in Gold. If you don't believe me watch the Super Bowl and then watch it again. Seatle stopped the best offense ever, the best QB & WR tandem ever, because they had arguably the best secondary of all time. Lastly, Earl Thomas is a beast. Without him, do you think the game would have been a little different?

Seattle was an early season darling and got paid back for the SB LX screw job as the Jerome Bettis Victory Tour was completed. The outcome this year was similarly preordained.

They held, shoved, pushed DEN's receivers all game long. This years' NFC final game with SF was obscenely officiated. The fix was in.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/08/06/four-years-later-bill-leavy-apologizes-to-seahawks/