I Had It Wrong -- Ralph Could Outlive This New 10 Year Lease

[SpikedLemonade]

I figured the chances of a 95 year old male living another 9 years was pretty much zero, but the actuary tables don't support that.

Check this out ==> http://plus.maths.org/content/understanding-uncertainty-how-long-will-you-live

See the chart under the heading The Force of Mortality.

Ralph turned 95 last October.

The chart shows that a male who is 95 has a 26.4% chance of dying before his next birthday.

The chart shows that a male who is 96 has a 28.2% chance of dying before his next birthday.

The chart shows that a male who is 97 has a 30.6% chance of dying before his next birthday.

The chart shows that a male who is 98 has a 33.1% chance of dying before his next birthday.

The chart shows that a male who is 99 has a 33.1% chance of dying before his next birthday.

The chart shows that a male who is 100 has a 37.2% chance of dying before his next birthday.

In other words, the odds are in Ralph's favour every year of making his next birthday.

Those are averages and with Ralph's wealth and thus access to the best health care possible, one would think his percentages are even better.

I, therefore, must conclude and say -- GO Russ GO!!!

[jimmifli]

.736 * .728 *.694*.669 etc...

So yeah, about a 10% chance give or take.

[SpikedLemonade]

So yeah, about a 10% chance give or take.

Jimmifli, homers have cheered on new seasons hoping the Bills make the play-offs with odds worse than that.

The steel industry could be coming back to Buffalo soon as well.

No more negativity from me.

I have joined the Better Days TrainTM since it involves less thinking and more blind faith.

GO Russ GO!!!

[Crisis]

Ralph is immortal. He's going to outlive us all.

[feldspar]

In other words, the odds are in Ralph's favour every year of making his next birthday.


So suck on THAT, asswipe.

[coastal]

What's the difference between a mosquito and the bills?

[SpikedLemonade]

So suck on THAT, asswipe.

I already admitted I was wrong. Was that insult necessary? I have feelings too.

- - - Updated - - -


What's the difference between a mosquito and the bills?

Who's there?

[Generalissimus Gibby]

I suspect that one of two things is true:

1) Ralph died some years ago, and its been Weekend at Bernie's mode for so long that the team must focus on concealing Ralph's death to the extent that they forget about winning

2) Ralph is a demon who will not die.

[Mace]

I'm just astonished you admitted you were wrong, old son.

Diff tween a Mosquito and the Bills is the size of their shoes.

[coastal]

What's the difference between a mosquito and the bills?
The mosquito stops sucking eventually.

[feldspar]

I already admitted I was wrong. Was that insult necessary? I have feelings too.



Because your scheming an old man's death, and prey for that day. You also put down Buffalo all the time on a Buffalo forum, after never having lived there.

Edited by YardRat

[coastal]

Because your scheming an old man's death, and prey for that day. You also put down Buffalo all the time on a Buffalo forum, after never having lived there.
you need to be part of our bucket list jaunt to Ralph's grave.

it'll be big fun.

Trust me.

[Mace]

The mosquito stops sucking eventually.

Oh yeah ? Do they not wear different sized shoes ? I don't like answering your questions, you're a mean person.

[SpikedLemonade]

Because your scheming an old man's death, and prey for that day. You also put down Buffalo all the time on a Buffalo forum, after never having lived there. **** you, too. Ralph's death and the aftermath is THE biggest issue facing the Buffalo Bills in their 53 year existence. You crave the Bills to be relevant again and there will be no bigger story in the NFL than the transfer of ownership once Ralph departs. Get used to it. Who is our safety this year is irrelevant by comparison.

[SpikedLemonade]

you need to be part of our bucket list jaunt to Ralph's grave.

it'll be big fun.

Trust me.

Jimmi is bringing the jars.

[Buffalo Thriller]

Better Days Train[/B]TM since it involves less thinking and more blind faith.

GO Russ GO!!!

You should give Christianity a try too.

[GreedoII]

Die already!!!!

[coastal]

Oh yeah ? Do they not wear different sized shoes ? I don't like answering your questions, you're a mean person.dont bring your foot fetish into spiked's necro thread.

its bad form.

[YardRat]

Play nice, boys and girls. I realize it is a sensitive subject, but there is no need for vulgarities and attacking the poster.

[better days]

I have been saying this since the lease was signed.

Ralph could well outlive it or at least live longer than the 7th year when the buyout clause is virtually gone for a year.

LONG LIVE Ralph!

[feldspar]

Ralph's death and the aftermath is THE biggest issue facing the Buffalo Bills in their 53 year existence. You crave the Bills to be relevant again and there will be no bigger story in the NFL than the transfer of ownership once Ralph departs. Get used to it. Who is our safety this year is irrelevant by comparison.

This does not explain your attitude, which I don't like.

[DynaPaul]

My father, a lifelong Bills fan, just died last week at age 61. He was in good health and stricken with acute upper GI bleeding yet this a-hole Wilson seems to live forever.

Life ain't fair.

[SpikedLemonade]

You do understand that Ralph will die one day?

You do understand that Ralph could have organized his estate in such a way that it did not involve an auction?

Ralph choose to do it that way so that the price his family gets from the sale of the Bills is not limited by the Bills having to remain in Buffalo.

The NFL owners have to approve the purchase of the Bills regardless, but Ralph has done nothing to make sure the Bills stay in Buffalo.

Have you asked yourself why?

[SpikedLemonade]

My father, a lifelong Bills fan, just died last week at age 61. He was in good health and stricken with acute upper GI bleeding yet this a-hole Wilson seems to live forever.

Life ain't fair.

My condolences.

My father was also a good man and died at the age of 63.

It seems that those who do not sell their soul go young.

[YardRat]

You do understand that Ralph will die one day?

You do understand that Ralph could have organized his estate in such a way that it did not involve an auction?

Ralph choose to do it that way so that the price his family gets from the sale of the Bills is not limited by the Bills having to remain in Buffalo.

The NFL owners have to approve the purchase of the Bills regardless, but Ralph has done nothing to make sure the Bills stay in Buffalo.

Have you asked yourself why?

You don't know that.

[SpikedLemonade]

You don't know that.

Please explain why Ralph would cause such panic in Buffalo by not revealing his succession plan if he had one?

Ralph just loves the people of Buffalo so much that he wants to torture them?

[JoeMama]

Ralph Wilson has some good genes.

He played tennis regularly into his 80s.

Only recently has his age made him a bit more reclusive. I could see him being a supercentenarian pretty easily.

[BuffaloRedleg]

Spikey I'm afraid with your anger problems Ralph my outlive you.

I hope you at least have a succession plan in place around here.

[BuffaloRedleg]

My father, a lifelong Bills fan, just died last week at age 61. He was in good health and stricken with acute upper GI bleeding yet this a-hole Wilson seems to live forever.

Life ain't fair.

My dad always tells me about when he was young he would say "of course the Bills will win a Superbowl sometime in my life, I mean come on!"

He's 69.

I'm 29.

I'm not so sure that either of us will ever see it happen.

Sorry about your father.

[DynaPaul]

Thanks for the condolences everyone. Better days, I tried to respond to your PM but it keeps telling me your box is full.

[GvilleBills]

My father, a lifelong Bills fan, just died last week at age 61. He was in good health and stricken with acute upper GI bleeding yet this a-hole Wilson seems to live forever.

Life ain't fair.
Sorry for your loss DP.

[Mace]

My father, a lifelong Bills fan, just died last week at age 61. He was in good health and stricken with acute upper GI bleeding yet this a-hole Wilson seems to live forever.

Life ain't fair.

Same old thing some people get upset with me mentioning time to time when it seems to fit, but my mom died in the hospice wing donated by Ralph and Mary Wilson so I don't really share your perspective on him.

I do, however share your perspective in a loss of a parent. Sincere condolences.....

[Mace]

Please explain why Ralph would cause such panic in Buffalo by not revealing his succession plan if he had one?

Ralph just loves the people of Buffalo so much that he wants to torture them?

Flip side of the argument though, Spiked, as always. If he wanted to make money on them so badly why would he not have sold them. That kind of financial infusion makes way more over time than the relatively marginal increase in value of a franchise over time, as in 900 million last year when you have professional money people will be worth way more than 950 million next year. It still doesn't make sense to me.

[BuffaloRedleg]

Flip side of the argument though, Spiked, as always. If he wanted to make money on them so badly why would he not have sold them. That kind of financial infusion makes way more over time than the relatively marginal increase in value of a franchise over time, as in 900 million last year when you have professional money people will be worth way more than 950 million next year. It still doesn't make sense to me.

Most human beings start with a bias and then work things backwards from there, filling in things that support their argument along the way.

At least with sports it is harmless.

[Bill Cody]

I figured the chances of a 95 year old male living another 9 years was pretty much zero, but the actuary tables don't support that.

Check this out ==> http://plus.maths.org/content/understanding-uncertainty-how-long-will-you-live

See the chart under the heading The Force of Mortality.

Ralph turned 95 last October.

The chart shows that a male who is 95 has a 26.4% chance of dying before his next birthday.

The chart shows that a male who is 96 has a 28.2% chance of dying before his next birthday.

The chart shows that a male who is 97 has a 30.6% chance of dying before his next birthday.

The chart shows that a male who is 98 has a 33.1% chance of dying before his next birthday.

The chart shows that a male who is 99 has a 33.1% chance of dying before his next birthday.

The chart shows that a male who is 100 has a 37.2% chance of dying before his next birthday.

In other words, the odds are in Ralph's favour every year of making his next birthday.

Those are averages and with Ralph's wealth and thus access to the best health care possible, one would think his percentages are even better.

I, therefore, must conclude and say -- GO Russ GO!!!

Saying someone has the odds in their favor each year to live until their next birthday is not the same as saying the odds favor Ralph reaching 100. They don't. At that age 1000 things can kill you. Typically something that appears minor will happen and then there will be complications and the person will die. Could he make it to 100? Sure but it's still unlikely.

[gr8slayer]

I hope he lives forever...

[Yasgur's Farm]

I figured the chances of a 95 year old male living another 9 years was pretty much zero, but the actuary tables don't support that.

Check this out ==> http://plus.maths.org/content/understanding-uncertainty-how-long-will-you-live

See the chart under the heading The Force of Mortality.

Ralph turned 95 last October.

The chart shows that a male who is 95 has a 26.4% chance of dying before his next birthday.

The chart shows that a male who is 96 has a 28.2% chance of dying before his next birthday.

The chart shows that a male who is 97 has a 30.6% chance of dying before his next birthday.

The chart shows that a male who is 98 has a 33.1% chance of dying before his next birthday.

The chart shows that a male who is 99 has a 33.1% chance of dying before his next birthday.

The chart shows that a male who is 100 has a 37.2% chance of dying before his next birthday.

In other words, the odds are in Ralph's favour every year of making his next birthday.

Those are averages and with Ralph's wealth and thus access to the best health care possible, one would think his percentages are even better.

I, therefore, must conclude and say -- GO Russ GO!!!Based on this info alone... The actual formula for Ralph living to 100 would be...

.264 x .282 x .306 x .331 x .331 = .0025 or 2.5%

[jimmifli]

Based on this info alone... The actual formula for Ralph living to 100 would be...

.264 x .282 x .306 x .331 x .331 = .0025 or 2.5%
nope. You need to flip that around, the odds of surviving each year are 1-x where x= chance of dying before his next birthday.

It washes out to about 10% but that's just me estimating, feel free to actually do the calculation if you want.

[Mace]

Most human beings start with a bias and then work things backwards from there, filling in things that support their argument along the way.

At least with sports it is harmless.

One of the reasons I like Spiked is that he's creatively consistent and it's kind of fun trying to figure out where he'll bring Wilson up next. I think Spiked is never even sure and has a chuckle over it too sometimes before going into a rage and throwing things.