Drafting QB's…A quick history lesson

[DraftBoy]

So I've seen a lot of people on here already saying EJ sucks and we need to take a QB with our 1st Rounder in 2014 or 2015. If that's your opinion that's fine, I think you're being shortsighted but that's not my point here. What you need to consider or realize is that no team since 2000 has taken another first round QB within two drafts of the previous one it took.

10 total teams took more than one QB in the 1st round since 2000 they are:
Jets
Falcons
Lions
Redskins (2x)
Jaguars
Ravens
Bills
Tennessee
Denver
Browns

The longest time span between taking first round QB's was 9 years (Jets, and Bills) and the shortest was three years (Redskins - It was three years their first time and seven their second time).

Here are the amount of years each waited before taking another QB:
Jets - 9 Years
Falcons - 7 Years
Lions - 7 Years
Redskins - 3 Years/7 Years
Jaguars - 8 Years
Ravens - 7 Years
Bills - 9 Years
Tennessee - 5 Years
Denver - 4 Years
Browns - 5 Years

That averages out to 6.45 years between 1st Round QB's. In other words if you're hope is we suck enough to take a 1st Round QB in 2015 it likely won't happen even if we're picking #1 overall. Could the Bills be the one team to break the trend and go QB again so quickly? Possibly but you're talking about EJ having to suck less than guys like Gabbert, Weeden, Ramsey, Harrington, and others. I just don't see that.

One note to this lesson is that in the past drafting a QB high led to a ridiculous contract that handcuffed your team. With the rookie wage scale that no longer is in place so the average may come down some in future years.

[BuffaloRedleg]

Re: Drafting QB's…A quick history lesson

That's a list of real NFL juggernauts there. All you are proving is that the worst teams in the NFL are bad because they average 6.45 years between drafting QBs in the first round.

[TacklingDummy]

Re: Drafting QB's…A quick history lesson

Almost all those teams you are talking about are consistent losers.
I guess they waited too long to give up on their busts.
Denver gave up on their busts and found Manning.

[Ginger Vitis]

Re: Drafting QB's…A quick history lesson

That's a list of real NFL juggernauts there. All you are proving is that the worst teams in the NFL are bad because they average 6.45 years between drafting QBs in the first round.

Except the Broncos..Ravens.. and falcons are on that list.

[DraftBoy]

Re: Drafting QB's…A quick history lesson

That's a list of real NFL juggernauts there. All you are proving is that the worst teams in the NFL are bad because they average 6.45 years between drafting QBs in the first round.

What do you think the Bills currently are?

- - - Updated - - -

Almost all those teams you are talking about are consistent losers.
I guess they waited too long to give up on their busts.
Denver gave up on their busts and found Manning.

As are the Bills currently...

[TacklingDummy]

Re: Drafting QB's…A quick history lesson

As are the Bills currently...

What's the main reason on the field the Bills have been consistent losers the past 14 years?

[DraftBoy]

Re: Drafting QB's…A quick history lesson

Except the Broncos..Ravens.. and falcons are on that list.

Not to mention the Lions and Redskins both have made the playoffs in the past few years.

- - - Updated - - -

What's the main reason on the field the Bills have been consistent losers the past 14 years?

Absolutely abhorrent scouting and personnel decisions.

[BuffaloRedleg]

Re: Drafting QB's…A quick history lesson

Except the Broncos..Ravens.. and falcons are on that list.

You are the perfect example of why this analysis and thread is flawed. Genius analysis.

Broncos brought in their QB in free agency and that is the only reason they are succesfull. The went from Cutler to Tebow in the 2000s in terms of drafting QBs in first round. I have no idea what that information does for predicting what the Bills will do, or should do. They didn't draft a QB throughout most of the 2000s because they had Cutler and were solid at the QB position.

The Falcons went from Vick in 2001 to Ryan in 2008. Like the Broncos, they didn't draft a QB because they had a QB. Until Vick got arrested they were fine at the QB position. They weren't disregarding it.

The Ravens were a team built around defense. Their philosophy has usually been to have a guy at QB who is a steward and doesn't make mistakes. That can be acquired in the 2nd round etc. They had a very specific philosophical reason for not drafting a QB all those years.

So again- The Broncos and Falcons had QBs, that is why they went so long without drafting one. The Ravens had a defense-centered philosophy, that is why they didn't spend 1st round picks at QB.

The Bills have neither a QB nor a defense good enough to win with an average QB. That is why they should and hopefully will draft a QB next year, or are doomed to live like the rest of the teams on that list.

[DynaPaul]

Re: Drafting QB's…A quick history lesson

Whaley already said that we're not taking a QB in the high rounds. Why do we keep talking about it?

[DraftBoy]

Re: Drafting QB's…A quick history lesson

Whaley already said that we're not taking a QB in the high rounds. Why do we keep talking about it?

Because fans by definition are irrational.

[sudzy]

Re: Drafting QB's…A quick history lesson

What's the main reason on the field the Bills have been consistent losers the past 14 years?

Would that because of QB? And the Bills aren't going to change their status until they find one. So let's just wait another 6 years?!?!?!

[Mr. Pink]

Re: Drafting QB's…A quick history lesson

Whaley already said that we're not taking a QB in the high rounds. Why do we keep talking about it?

Everyone knows they're not taking a QB that would be admission that they wasted a pick on EJ and failed on scouting him properly. No team is gonna do that. Doesn't mean that they shouldn't or don't need a QB.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Re: Drafting QB's…A quick history lesson

Drafted a new QB within two years? No, that hasn't really happened. But the Bills have used two firsts on QBs within two years 2002 in the Bledsoe trade and 2004 on Losman. And Cleveland is a very strong candidate to do that in this draft.

[feldspar]

Re: Drafting QB's…A quick history lesson

So I've seen a lot of people on here already saying EJ sucks and we need to take a QB with our 1st Rounder in 2014 or 2015. If that's your opinion that's fine, I think you're being shortsighted but that's not my point here. What you need to consider or realize is that no team since 2000 has taken another first round QB within two drafts of the previous one it took.

10 total teams took more than one QB in the 1st round since 2000 they are:
Jets
Falcons
Lions
Redskins (2x)
Jaguars
Ravens
Bills
Tennessee
Denver
Browns

The longest time span between taking first round QB's was 9 years (Jets, and Bills) and the shortest was three years (Redskins - It was three years their first time and seven their second time).

Here are the amount of years each waited before taking another QB:
Jets - 9 Years
Falcons - 7 Years
Lions - 7 Years
Redskins - 3 Years/7 Years
Jaguars - 8 Years
Ravens - 7 Years
Bills - 9 Years
Tennessee - 5 Years
Denver - 4 Years
Browns - 5 Years

That averages out to 6.45 years between 1st Round QB's. In other words if you're hope is we suck enough to take a 1st Round QB in 2015 it likely won't happen even if we're picking #1 overall. Could the Bills be the one team to break the trend and go QB again so quickly? Possibly but you're talking about EJ having to suck less than guys like Gabbert, Weeden, Ramsey, Harrington, and others. I just don't see that.

One note to this lesson is that in the past drafting a QB high led to a ridiculous contract that handcuffed your team. With the rookie wage scale that no longer is in place so the average may come down some in future years.

What you fail to recognize here is the rookie wage scale that is now in place. We are only three years removed from the implementation of that, so you may see trends go off into different directions since the commitment for a first-round pick isn't quite what it once was.

Sam Bradford was guaranteed $50 million in 2010. Ridiculous. That won't happen anymore.

So, all due respect, history ain't what it used to be here.

I think Manuel is guaranteed about $9 million, if I'm not mistaken.

Edit: nevermind...I guess you did recognize these things. My bad.

[jimmifli]

Re: Drafting QB's…A quick history lesson

One note to this lesson is that in the past drafting a QB high led to a ridiculous contract that handcuffed your team. With the rookie wage scale that no longer is in place so the average may come down some in future years.

That's a big note.

Under the old system the development schedule was shorter than the cap consequences of cutting a QB. So teams knew whether the player was good or not a year or two before they could do anything about it.
Under the new system, a mid 1st rookie contract isn't a bad price for a backup. Maybe teams will adjust their development schedules, or maybe it really does take 3-4 years to "know". I suspect we'll see some teams starting to shorten that window.