Why Trading Next Year's Number 1 Isn't A Bad Idea

[BillsImpossible]

Put yourself in Doug Whaley's shoes confident in EJ Manuel, his starting running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, his entire defense, and the majority of his offensive line.

If the Bills trade their 1st round pick in 2015 and make the playoffs this year, they're only giving up the 20th-32nd pick of the 2015 NFL draft.

The Bills want to trade up...for who?

I think the Bills are one dominant defensive player and a 2nd round tackle away from the playoffs and more.

[better days]

Well, the thing is there is NOBODY worth trading up for.

[BillsImpossible]

I think Mack is worth trading up for. Same with Watkins. Same with Robinson.

Which player would most help the Bills?

[better days]

I think Mack is worth trading up for. Same with Watkins. Same with Robinson.

Which player would most help the Bills?I would be happy with any of them, but not at the expense of two first rnd picks & more.

Especially in a deep draft like this.

[BuffaloRedleg]

I'm getting the feeling they are going to make a splash and trade up for Watkins. I'm not sure I like the idea, but it sure would be exciting.

[better days]

I'm getting the feeling they are going to make a splash and trade up for Watkins. I'm not sure I like the idea, but it sure would be exciting.

It would be exciting & I would be as excited as anyone.............until next years draft.

[TacklingDummy]

I'm getting the feeling they are going to make a splash and trade up for Watkins. I'm not sure I like the idea, but it sure would be exciting.
Watkins would be a bust in Buffalo with their QB mess.

[jamze132]

Not trading next years top 10 pick...

[X-Era]

I would be happy with any of them, but not at the expense of two first rnd picks & more.

Especially in a deep draft like this.My issue with this statement is what does "deep" mean to you? More draftable prospects than in normal drafts? More potential day one starters? Neither are the same as more blue-chip prospects. And to me, this draft is about average as far as top tier or elite guys goes. So, if you feel you need another elite player instead of a bunch of starters or depth, maybe this draft is just as good as any draft to move up in.

But all of that depends on what you want to get out of the draft. If the Bills want several day one starters they may not be able to move up and accomplish that. If they want an elite prospect and one or maybe two day one starters they probably could do that still with a move up.

Put it this way. Is it impossible to get a starting RT and G and maybe even a TE from rounds 2, 3, and/or 4? Assuming we can move for a 1st and 2nd plus next years first?

[Novacane]

It's a bad idea because their QB is a big question mark. If we were set at QB I would say go for it. Teams that are close make moves like this.

[trapezeus]

it's a huge gamble. this is a team that finished 4th in its division. it was 2 games behind a .500 record.

That is a gigantic gamble to assume the reason we didn't get 4-6 more wins needed to be considered between good and dominant were because of one missing spot.

if you are a 10-11 win team with an playoff appearance, then you can maybe agree that you are in your window and to take a shot to get significantly better.

i wouldn't take this gamble. if the draft is as deep as they say, we should be using all our picks.

[mysticsoto]

It's a bad idea because their QB is a big question mark. If we were set at QB I would say go for it. Teams that are close make moves like this.

Although I am a fan of giving EJ time to see if he is the QB we need him to be (instead of right away giving up like some have), I have to agree with this. There is still a question mark on him and we can't sacrifice our next years 1st rd without knowing for sure where we stand on the QB issue. We could gamble and draft Watkins, Robinson or someone else, but if EJ doesn't pan out, we're forced to try and get a QB in FA and pay through the roof for, likely, a mediocre journeyman. We don't have a defense that can win by themselves and with the change in coaching and scheme, frankly, we have no idea where it's going to be.

I'd consider that poor planning - to do something so risky.

[stuckincincy]

Although I am a fan of giving EJ time to see if he is the QB we need him to be (instead of right away giving up like some have), I have to agree with this. There is still a question mark on him and we can't sacrifice our next years 1st rd without knowing for sure where we stand on the QB issue. We could gamble and draft Watkins, Robinson or someone else, but if EJ doesn't pan out, we're forced to try and get a QB in FA and pay through the roof for, likely, a mediocre journeyman. We don't have a defense that can win by themselves and with the change in coaching and scheme, frankly, we have no idea where it's going to be.

I'd consider that poor planning - to do something so risky.

BUF is in a tough spot. In no particular order:

Some crumbs played with Nix, and published his thoughts about the future of Fitzpatrick.

They drafted Manual in a year when the prospects were considered so-so.

They axed Tavares Jackson, evidently deciding he couldn't serve.

Bought Kolb and the predicted - happened.

They cooked up a no-huddle, hurry up game plan. That's no way for a rookie to begin to learn the NFL ropes.

Then Manual got injured and missed 6 games.


So here we are, talking about a qb pick and selling and buying draft picks.... :horror:

[better days]

My issue with this statement is what does "deep" mean to you? More draftable prospects than in normal drafts? More potential day one starters? Neither are the same as more blue-chip prospects. And to me, this draft is about average as far as top tier or elite guys goes. So, if you feel you need another elite player instead of a bunch of starters or depth, maybe this draft is just as good as any draft to move up in.

But all of that depends on what you want to get out of the draft. If the Bills want several day one starters they may not be able to move up and accomplish that. If they want an elite prospect and one or maybe two day one starters they probably could do that still with a move up.

Put it this way. Is it impossible to get a starting RT and G and maybe even a TE from rounds 2, 3, and/or 4? Assuming we can move for a 1st and 2nd plus next years first?

I have read there are players that will be drafted in the 3rd & 4th rnd this year that would have been drafted in the first or 2nd past years.

That is because of all the underclassmen that came out this year.

[Uncle Jesse]

It's going to be a bad idea if Manuel doesn't pan out and we need to draft a QB next year and have no 1st rounder.

[EDS]

Bad move. Even if Manuel improves quite a pit and proves he can stay healthy that does not guarantee anything more than a wild card spot. Once the team achieves even that modest form of success the front office can decide whether it wants to go all in on a particular player (similar to Atlanta going all in for Julio Jones).

I just fail to see how a GM of a 6-10 could feel confident about the direction of the team.

[trapezeus]

also what happens if we get the #1 pick and take the leaf of the draft and pick 2-8 are all superstars.

i know i'd be nervous of this happening.

[X-Era]

I have read there are players that will be drafted in the 3rd & 4th rnd this year that would have been drafted in the first or 2nd past years.

That is because of all the underclassmen that came out this year.
And I agree with that for sure. But that doesn't really change the Bills scenario ya know? I mean if the Bills only need a few starters but really could use another star at position ___. I can see the benefit in their minds of moving up.

[CoolBreeze]

Well, the thing is there is NOBODY worth trading up for.

I respectfully disagree. It'd make me nervous moving up to number one, or to the top 3. Reason being there's that chance we could draft a bust. But there is no denying how good Clowney, Robinson, or Watkins could be. IMO all have the potential to be top 3 in their positon someday. If the front office feels this way why not grab one?

EJ may tank, which would be salt in the wound if we did in fact trade up for a bust. Though if EJ proves to be a quality QB, and we trade up for one of them. Then they prosper, and show they can and will be a top player at their position. That feeling would be amazing.

[trapezeus]

i guess some NFL team has to try and be the islanders. it's just sad that it might be us.

[EDS]

i guess some NFL team has to try and be the islanders. it's just sad that it might be us.

Islanders at least made the playoffs in 2013.

[BillsImpossible]

If the Bills give up a first round draft pick in 2015, they would be giving up next year's 20th pick at most if the Bills make the playoffs.

The 20th pick in 2015 to move up and draft an elite defensive player?

Sold.

[TacklingDummy]

Trading next year #1 is not a bad idea, its a friggin stupid idea.

[TacklingDummy]

also what happens if we get the #1 pick and take the leaf of the draft and pick 2-8 are all superstars.
Like the Dareus pick?

[trapezeus]

dareus is a decent player and part of the strongest part of the team. i won't knock that pick. plus at the time, that was the no brainer pick to make. i was on board then and on board now.

[better days]

Dareus has proven to be well worth the #4 pick.

[Bill Cody]

I hate the idea. Our roster is improved but compare it to the elite teams and it falls well short. We need as many picks as we can get and we need to hit on most of them. The only time I really am supportive of trading up is for a QB because he's hands down the most important player on the team. But drafting a QB early this year is highly unlikely. If Manziel dropped to 9 I'd do it but OBD probably wouldn't. On the other hand that would create quite a market for our pick IMO.

[better days]

I hate the idea. Our roster is improved but compare it to the elite teams and it falls well short. We need as many picks as we can get and we need to hit on most of them. The only time I really am supportive of trading up is for a QB because he's hands down the most important player on the team. But drafting a QB early this year is highly unlikely. If Manziel dropped to 9 I'd do it but OBD probably wouldn't. On the other hand that would create quite a market for our pick IMO.

I would not be surprised to see Manziel & the rest of the QB's in this class fall out of the first rnd.

Manziel & the rest of them have too many question marks to be drafted HIGH.

[stuckincincy]

I would not be surprised to see Manziel & the rest of the QB's in this class fall out of the first rnd.

Manziel & the rest of them have too many question marks to be drafted HIGH.

And Manual didn't? :str8face:

[Bill Cody]

I would not be surprised to see Manziel & the rest of the QB's in this class fall out of the first rnd.

Manziel & the rest of them have too many question marks to be drafted HIGH.

we'll see. Question marks or no there's a greater need for QB's than there is a supply which is why they're consistently overdrafted.

[Oaf]

When's the last time we drafted 20th-32th on virtue of our own pick?

Exactly.

[ParanoidAndroid]

My issue with this statement is what does "deep" mean to you? More draftable prospects than in normal drafts? More potential day one starters? Neither are the same as more blue-chip prospects. And to me, this draft is about average as far as top tier or elite guys goes. So, if you feel you need another elite player instead of a bunch of starters or depth, maybe this draft is just as good as any draft to move up in.

But all of that depends on what you want to get out of the draft. If the Bills want several day one starters they may not be able to move up and accomplish that. If they want an elite prospect and one or maybe two day one starters they probably could do that still with a move up.

Put it this way. Is it impossible to get a starting RT and G and maybe even a TE from rounds 2, 3, and/or 4? Assuming we can move for a 1st and 2nd plus next years first?

The junior class is pretty big this year and they keep getting bigger. Take advantage of that before they increase the age requirement. How do you do that? Trade DOWN and get more picks. Khalil Mack is great, but don't forget we got Alonso in the second. Draft often and draft smart.

[BuffaloRedleg]

I'm not sure that giving up our only chance at getting a QB next year if EJ fails is a good idea. In fact, I'm sure that it is a terrible idea.

What happens if EJ doesn't take the next step next year, either by injury or lack of talent? Wait 2 years to replace him? You can't put all your eggs into one basket like that, especially on a guy who has proved nothing and was never a top tier prospect to start off.

[MidnightVoice]

Trading next year #1 is not a bad idea, its a friggin stupid idea.

http://espn.go.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/9268/bills-shouldnt-clown-around-with-15-pick

Whether their interest is legitimate or not, the Buffalo Bills appear to be in the market to trade up in the first round of next week’s draft.

If it means giving up their first-round pick next season, the Bills shouldn’t make the deal.

Not for Jadeveon Clowney. Not for Sammy Watkins. Not for Khalil Mack.

Why? The Bills need to save their top 2015 pick for a quarterback. Trading away that selection has the potential to set back the franchise in a way that having Clowney, Watkins or Mack wouldn’t overcome.

The Bills are in a critical second year of a rebuilding project. Their results this season could begin to determine the fate of coach Doug Marrone and general manager Doug Whaley, although it would take a significant downturn for either to be fired after this season.

Second-year quarterback EJ Manuel might not have that same security. The 16th overall pick last April, Manuel enters what could be a make-or-break season.

If Manuel improves on his 4-6 record and 42.3 QBR of last season, the Bills have a better shot at making the playoffs. The pressure would be eased and the Bills would be free to use their first-round pick as they wish next spring.

But if Manuel continues his average to below-average play -- or suffers another injury (or three, as he did last season) that muddles the picture -- then the Bills will need to mull over their options. Drafting a quarterback in the first round of the 2015 draft should be on the table.

In a way, that makes last year’s draft and next year’s draft more important to the Bills than what they will do next week.