What would you consider a good season for EJ this year?

[Don't Panic]

Obviously the strongest measurement of success for Manuel this year will be wins. I was curious what kind of numbers people thought he needed to put up to have a good season though. I noticed Yahoo projects him for 3600 yards, 18 TDs and 11 picks with 253 rushing yards. I'd think 4000 yards and 24 TDs would be good goals for him this year. I'm not as concerned about the rushing yards since I don't expect Marrone and Hackett to have designed runs for him too often this year. As for the picks, those could fluctuate quite a bit as he obviously is still going to make some mistakes. Anything under 12 would be good I suppose... wouldn't be surprised if that number hit 15 though.

So since the feeling is that the fate of this season essentially lies on the success of EJ, what do you think his numbers need to be to have what would be considered a good season?

[TacklingDummy]

Improving significantly on last years putrid numbers.

[mikemac2001]

Improving significantly on last years putrid numbers.


ok and what would that be 10 wins
make playoffs
28 tds 10ints
top ten yds top 15 tds and top 5 turnovers

add something instead of the same garbage we get it u dont like the qb or the pick but hes the qb for atleast another year

i am looking for ej to cut down on turnvers improve td/int ratio and improve his comp% those 3 = more wins i believe

[The Jokeman]

Obviously the strongest measurement of success for Manuel this year will be wins. I was curious what kind of numbers people thought he needed to put up to have a good season though. I noticed Yahoo projects him for 3600 yards, 18 TDs and 11 picks with 253 rushing yards. I'd think 4000 yards and 24 TDs would be good goals for him this year. I'm not as concerned about the rushing yards since I don't expect Marrone and Hackett to have designed runs for him too often this year. As for the picks, those could fluctuate quite a bit as he obviously is still going to make some mistakes. Anything under 12 would be good I suppose... wouldn't be surprised if that number hit 15 though.

So since the feeling is that the fate of this season essentially lies on the success of EJ, what do you think his numbers need to be to have what would be considered a good season?

Playing the full 16 season is vital. Hopefully get us to an 8-8 or better record. In terms of personal stats, 58-61% completion percentage, 3200-3750 yards 18-24 TDs 10-14 INTs, 300-500 yards rushing and 1-4 rushing TDs.

[ServoBillieves]

Super Bowl MVP. 0 picks.

[gr8slayer]

I honestly don't care about statistics. If the team is in contention going into the last few games of the season, he's done his part

[Don't Panic]

I honestly don't care about statistics. If the team is in contention going into the last few games of the season, he's done his part

Well, there's definitely some correlation. The better QBs numbers-wise tended to be on more successful teams. In our case, there's legitimate reason for optimism at every other area on the team. QB is the great unknown. So the better his numbers, the better we most likely are in wins and losses.

[gr8slayer]

I personally see a lot of similarities between what the Bills have built, and the Seahawks (outside of QB). Because of that, Manuel doesn't need to win games, he just needs to be a bus driver, and not lose games.
Well, there's definitely some correlation. The better QBs numbers-wise tended to be on more successful teams. In our case, there's legitimate reason for optimism at every other area on the team. QB is the great unknown. So the better his numbers, the better we most likely are in wins and losses.

[Meathead]

tds have to be double the ints

that ratio is so key to winning and losing that everything else is mostly secondary for a young qb. iow, a good team can win with a guy who has mediocre season stats (3000 yds passing, 55% completion rate, 50+ sacks) as long as he produces double the tds to sacks

[TacklingDummy]

ok and what would that be 10 wins
make playoffs
28 tds 10ints
top ten yds top 15 tds and top 5 turnovers

add something instead of the same garbage we get it u dont like the qb or the pick but hes the qb for atleast another year

i am looking for ej to cut down on turnvers improve td/int ratio and improve his comp% those 3 = more wins i believe

Significantly Higher than 29th in passing yards.
Significantly Higher than 32nd in YDS/A
Significantly Higher than 29th in Rate
Significantly Higher than 28th in Comp. %
Significantly Higher than 29th in TD passes
Significantly Higher than 33rd in YDS/G
Significantly Higher than 28th in Total QBR

[mightysimi]

Significantly Higher than 29th in passing yards.
Significantly Higher than 32nd in YDS/A
Significantly Higher than 29th in Rate
Significantly Higher than 28th in Comp. %
Significantly Higher than 29th in TD passes
Significantly Higher than 33rd in YDS/G
Significantly Higher than 28th in Total QBR

Half of those can be accomplished by playing the same amount of games as everyone else.

[YardRat]

Stay healthy, remain the starter, and be in a position to make the playoffs.

[Night Train]

Getting the ball out of his hands quickly to his many playmakers and staying healthy.

[DraftBoy]

Better touch on his passes, better field vision to see the throw before he makes it, and a better feel in the pocket.

[TacklingDummy]

Half of those can be accomplished by playing the same amount of games as everyone else.

Half if you mean 2.

28% is the new 50%

[mightysimi]

Half if you mean 2.

28% is the new 50%

Generally speaking. And 28.5. That's way closer to 50

[swiper]

If he was top 15 in the league. That would do it for me. It's never going to happen however.

[bleve]

If he plays better than the other QB's on the roster, that would be a good start.

[BuffaloRedleg]

9-7 or better

[DynaPaul]

Less than 5 really stupid mistakes, 9 wins, double the amount of TD's to INT's, and NO INJURIES!

[Fletch]

Obviously the strongest measurement of success for Manuel this year will be wins. I was curious what kind of numbers people thought he needed to put up to have a good season though. I noticed Yahoo projects him for 3600 yards, 18 TDs and 11 picks with 253 rushing yards. I'd think 4000 yards and 24 TDs would be good goals for him this year. I'm not as concerned about the rushing yards since I don't expect Marrone and Hackett to have designed runs for him too often this year. As for the picks, those could fluctuate quite a bit as he obviously is still going to make some mistakes. Anything under 12 would be good I suppose... wouldn't be surprised if that number hit 15 though.

So since the feeling is that the fate of this season essentially lies on the success of EJ, what do you think his numbers need to be to have what would be considered a good season?

I think that Yahoo's projections are good ones assuming that he takes the kind of steps that a developing 2nd year former 1st-round QB is expected to take. I also think that's best case. If he can hit that, without putting up more than 12 INTs or so, then I think Manuel will have taken a huge step. As long as half of those TDs weren't all in three games.

I have to question your 4,000/24 TDs number though. Those are what Brady did last season with a better cast of WRs than Manuel will have this season. I'm not seeing it. It's also better than Kaepernick, Cutler, Eli Manning, and Aaron Rodgers.

A good exercise to accompany this is to project where you think those 4,000 yards and 24 TD passes are going to go. That can shed some light on things. It's easy to say 24 TDs, but when you start asking where they're going, things start looking different.

Having said that, what I'm looking for from Manuel is several things.

First, every NFL QB butters his bread in the short-medium passing game, which also happens to be where Watkins excelled at Clemson. Unfortunately that wasn't Manuel's strong suit last season, particularly screens and behind or near the line of scrimmage stuff. So he'll have to tighten that up before we can ever claim that he's progressing according to plan. Many people also commented on his slow reads on the OTM stuff too, which also doesn't facilitate that.

Second, he'll need to improve on his consistency, or lack thereof, drastically. Fitzpatrick's ratings didn't vary as much in 2012. So it's kind of like "will the real Manuel please stand up." But he can't have that kind of variation and be considered good. That'll be a huge thing for him this season, again, they said the same thing about him through four years at FSU.

Third, and this is more of a constraint or obstacle that he'll have to overcome, but he'll have to develop chemistry with his receivers quickly. I'm not sure I see that happening. Two of his three starters will have never caught a pass from him come week 1. I don't think that we can overstate that. Watkins replaces what Goodwin was drafted for since Goodwin isn't a 3-down WR, so one of the two WRs that Manuel's thrown to won't even be starting. That leaves Woods. Hence, why I said that trading Stevie was stupid if they truly think that they're going somewhere this season.

Then of course there are all of the other things that everyone's mentioned about his play. The overemphasis on deep balls merely tells me that Marrone doesn't have a clue. Brady's game is the complete opposite, huge focus on the short and short-medium stuff.

It's a lot of stuff. I don't see any of our WRs getting more than 5 or 6 TDs this season. Opponents now have all the film they need of Manuel too. I don't think that Ryan, and certainly not Hackett, have the wits to match with Belicheat, Ryan, McCarthy, Trestman, Caldwell, Fox, or Reid and probably doesn't stack up exceedingly well vs. the others either.

The bottom line is that you just don't take a team with a rookie WR as its top hope, two 2nd-year WRs, neither of which was prolific last season, add a character and injury issue so-so starting WR, all of whom collectively may be the youngest top-4 WRs in the league, and post the kind of season that many are expecting here, with a QB like Manuel, that struggled so mightily last season, throwing to them. That's way way way too much to have to gel early in the season.

I just don't get why anyone is high on us like that. I simply can't see it. I'd say it about any team.

[BLeonard]

Was watching ESPN earlier and they basically said that, as long as Manuel is AVERAGE the Bills should do fairly well, due to all the weapons around him.

The Bills went 6-10 last year. In the 10 losses, they scored less than 25 points in 9 of those games. If they had scored 25 points every game, they'd have finished at 10-6 and qualified for the playoffs.

Someone else mentioned the fact that the Bills only pay 5 teams with winning records in 2014... Granted, one of those is New England and they play them twice, but, if the Bills can simply beat the teams that didn't finish with a winning record last year, that puts them at 10-6.

The only game that the Bills scored more than 25 points and lost was against Atlanta and that was in OT, after a fumble in regulation and another in OT, both resulting in turnovers.

Personally, I don't think scoring 25 points per game and beating teams that don't have a winning record is too much to ask, given the weapons that Manuel has around him on offense.

So, in short:

1: Score 25 points per game
2: Beat the teams that didn't have a winning record in 2013

They do those two things, it won't matter how many yards Manuel throws for, how many TD passes he has, how many picks he has, what his completion percentage is, or how many yards he rushes for... They'll be right there in the thick of the playoff race.

-Bill

[Fletch]

... but, if the Bills can simply beat the teams that didn't finish with a winning record last year, that puts them at 10-6.

Come on now, you know better than that.

We played four 4-12 teams last season and were 1-3 against them. That's hardly the hallmark of a team that's ready to beat all the teams it faces that didn't have winning records last season.

I put in another post the reason why our schedule is tougher this season. I also showed that we didn't beat a single team, despite our franchise record sack totals, that was ranked in the top half of the league in passing, and this season we play even more top passing teams. That's not good.

There isn't any rhyme or reason to last season's play. You cite some things, but you're not comprehensive.

We lost to the 4-12 Bucs, Falcons, and Browns. Half of our wins came within the division, two of which at the hands of Miami who was just as up and down as we were.

You really see us beating both the Jets and Miami twice each, and Chicago?

We couldn't beat teams like Cleveland, Oakland, and Houston last season, what makes you think we'll sweep them this season?

There is way too much youth being relied on this season for this team to even beat the league's average teams on a regular basis this season. If you ask me Stevie and Byrd's absences are going to be felt much more than anyone realizes this season.

[Don't Panic]

A good exercise to accompany this is to project where you think those 4,000 yards and 24 TD passes are going to go. That can shed some light on things. It's easy to say 24 TDs, but when you start asking where they're going, things start looking different.

Valid point. Just shooting from the hip here... Watkins 900 yards, 6 TDs; Woods 800 yards, 4 TDs; Williams 600 yards, 3 TDs; Chandler/Moeaki 600 yards, 4 TDs; Goodwin 400 yards, 3 TDs; Spiller 350 yards, 3 TDs; Freddy 150 yards, 2 TDs; Misc. 100 yards, 1 TD. That's 3900 yards and 26 TDs... and I honestly did that once and just took best guess at each guy(s). Not too far-fetched. So long as the protection is solid, I think he's going to be able to hit those numbers.


If they had scored 25 points every game, they'd have finished at 10-6 and qualified for the playoffs.

25 points a game is a lot of points. I'd be happy if we scored 22 a game and could keep the D at under 20. That would put us in a position to win 10 games.

[BLeonard]

Come on now, you know better than that.

We played four 4-12 teams last season and were 1-3 against them. That's hardly the hallmark of a team that's ready to beat all the teams it faces that didn't have winning records last season.

I didn't say the Bills were going to do it... I just said, if they did, they'd very likely be in contention for a playoff spot.

If you would have told me at this time last year that the Bills would beat the defending Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens, I wouldn't have believed you.



We lost to the 4-12 Bucs, Falcons, and Browns. Half of our wins came within the division, two of which at the hands of Miami who was just as up and down as we were.

No real excuse to lose to TB, but IIRC (and it's been a while, so I could be wrong) the Bills had Atlanta beat twice (once in regulation, once in OT) and fumbled both chances away. Also pretty sure they were doing well against Cleveland, until Manuel went out with his knee injury.



You really see us beating both the Jets and Miami twice each, and Chicago?

Again, I'm not saying they will beat anyone. The point is, they need to start beating the teams that they should beat. No team is perfect. Even the 90's Bills lost to the Patriots, Jets and Colts, among other inferior teams every once in a while. But, they didn't make habit of it and more often than not, beat the teams that they should beat.



We couldn't beat teams like Cleveland, Oakland, and Houston last season, what makes you think we'll sweep them this season?

They didn't play Oakland or Houston, but again, I'm not saying they WILL... I'm simply saying that, if there is going to be a playoff run, they SHOULD beat those teams on a regular basis.



There is way too much youth being relied on this season for this team to even beat the league's average teams on a regular basis this season. If you ask me Stevie and Byrd's absences are going to be felt much more than anyone realizes this season.

Don't disagree with that. The question was asked about what would be considered a good year for Manuel... I don't think any specific numbers for Manuel are the key to being labeled a "good season." The numbers that count will be the wins and losses accumulated. My response stands:

1: Score at least 25 points per game (which Manuel has the tools on offense to do). Last year, the Bills averaged 21.2 points per game... 25 would be a little more than an extra FG per game. That would put them at 12th in the NFL in PPG (last year they finished 22nd). 3.8 extra points is a 10 rank jump.

2: Beat the teams you should (In most cases, if #1 is accomplished, this will work itself out).

-Bill

[BLeonard]

25 points a game is a lot of points. I'd be happy if we scored 22 a game and could keep the D at under 20. That would put us in a position to win 10 games.

Not really. They averaged 21.2 last year, as I said above... Averaging 25 would put them in 12th overall, but would jump them 10 spots up the list from 22nd, where they were in 2013.

FWIW, 22 points would only jump them one spot. even shooting for 24 points per game puts them at 16th, putting them in the top half of the league (albeit barely).

-Bill

[BertSquirtgum]

Playing every game with 250 passing yards or more in each game.

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or at the very least a 250 YPG average at the end of the season.

[Jan Reimers]

A Super Bowl win.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Playing every game with 250 passing yards or more in each game.

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or at the very least a 250 YPG average at the end of the season.

For some context, a 250 Y/G average is a 4000 yard pace. Last year it would put Manuel 12th in the league behind Romo, and ahead of guys like Luck, Flacco, Foles, Smith, and Wilson. I think that would qualify for a great season, personally.

[BertSquirtgum]

For some context, a 250 Y/G average is a 4000 yard pace. Last year it would put Manuel 12th in the league behind Romo, and ahead of guys like Luck, Flacco, Foles, Smith, and Wilson. I think that would qualify for a great season, personally.

Well, for me to believe in the guy. That is what it would take for me to believe he is "the guy" again.