Watkins' Speed Helps Him Dust Everyone, Right?

[Fletch]

Something just hit me while looking at something regarding Spiller that made me think of Watkins. Interestingly both players come from the same program, had the same coach, played in the same or similar offensive system, and Watkins more so than Spiller played in a conference with only two notably good teams, one of which was Clemson, their own team.

Watkins is fast, we know that, it's been timed. It's also been said that this is the primary reason for his success at Clemson.

Well if this is the case, then how come he ranked only 139th last season in yards-per-catch in the NCAA? I mean shouldn't a player that's so blazing fast have been ranked much higher and performed better as such. Keep in mind that many of the players ranked ahead of him were freshmen, sophs, and other juniors. 15 were TE's.

My feelings have been the same prior to the Draft even having taken place, something's not lining up between what's being said and the facts, among which are a gimmick system.

And before some of you say in defense that he caught a lot of his passes near or behind the line-of-scrimmage, think that through.

I felt the same way before we even drafted Watkins and thought that he was highly overrated, just like Spiller. Given the similarities ...

[Albany,n.y.]

[QUOTE=Fletch;3959229]

Well if this is the case, then how come he ranked only 139th last season in yards-per-catch in the NCAA? I mean shouldn't a player that's so blazing fast have been ranked much higher and performed better as such. Keep in mind that many of the players ranked ahead of him were freshmen, sophs, and other juniors. 15 were TE's.
QUOTE]
1st off, I have no idea what type of offense they ran and what kind of offense the other 138 receivers ahead of him were in either, but...
It all depends on what type of offense a player is in. In an offense like the old Oakland Raiders, WRs yards per catch will be higher than an offense that is designed to move the ball down the field in smaller chunks & eat up the clock that way or through the ground & pound strategy. Every offense is different. The fastest receiver in the world will not lead the nation in YPC if the QB can't throw long & accurate. If the O-line can't give the QB time, no long bombs. If a player is catching TDs in the red zone, his YPC stats go down.

This is another reason I hate using stats for player evaluations. I'll say it again-if stats were so important in football, the coaches would never be watching film, they'd just hand out stat sheets at the meetings. Football is too complex to use stats as anything but a really rough guide. Unless you saw the films of Watkins and the other 138 receivers games, it's impossible to explain why one receiver has a better YPC than another one. If you studied all the films instead of a black & white stat, you may have your answer. I'm sure Whaley & the Bills management saw a lot of Watkins on video before their final evaluation that he is a special player.

[THATHURMANATOR]

YUCK

[k-oneputt]

His game is more then just speed. He runs hard after a catch and is tough to tackle. I've seen him numerous times lower his head and run over d-backs like he was a running back. He actually remind me of Andre Reed some. Watch the highlights of last years Ohio St. game.

[Pinkerton Security]

This is just a disturbingly negative post. Firstly - Watkins is fast, but he doesn't have the timed speed like CJ did - he plays very fast though and is great in the open field.\

And secondly, CJ Spiller is one of the top 5 playmakers in the NFL when healthy. I know he does get hurt but CJ isnt overrated, we need to utilize him properly and if we do, we saw how effective he can be - he averaged 6 yards per carry in 2012.

Check out this article for a more reasonable breakdown of Watkins qualities and flaws:
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46006/349/peshek-top-4-wr-metrics

[k-oneputt]

Watkins is exactly the type of wr our overrated qb needs since accuracy and reading defenses isn't his strong points.

[Night Train]

Watkins caught a ton of bubble screens. They were almost like running plays with the Clemson QB Taj Boyd immediately tossing the ball sideways to Watkins.

He's built like a RB. The major reason he was drafted was to help Manuel, who will only launch so many long balls until he finds a thingy called accuracy.


Pure speed ? We may have 3 of the top 10 guys in the NFL in Goodwin, Spiller and Watkins.

Raw stats tell a story with only 20 % of the content.

[Dr. Who]

Watkins caught a ton of bubble screens. They were almost like running plays with the Clemson QB Taj Boyd immediately tossing the ball sideways to Watkins.

He's built like a RB. The major reason he was drafted was to help Manuel, who will only launch so many long balls until he finds a thingy called accuracy.


Pure speed ? We may have 3 of the top 10 guys in the NFL in Goodwin, Spiller and Watkins.

Raw stats tell a story with only 20 % of the content.

Pretty sure Tom Brady or Peyton Manning would be happy to have Watkins on their team. Drafting an elite talent is always a good thing. Some time before the draft, Meril Hoge was raving about Watkins' skill set. He has superlative hands and body control and runs like an angry running back with the ball.

Why all this should make him a flashy product of a system without abilities that transfer to the NFL game is beyond me. It's also disturbing that folks want to make the selection a way to continue to denigrate Manuel. I hope EJ turns out well, because the contempt thrown his way is certainly nothing for Buffalo Bills fans to be proud of.

[ParanoidAndroid]

How many receptions did those other receivers have? If I catch 10 passes and one of them goes for 70 yards, my average is going to be really good, right?

[EDS]

Watkins is exactly the type of wr our overrated qb needs since accuracy and reading defenses isn't his strong points.

Watkins can only help, but I think Manuel would benefit the most from a receiver who is tall and has good leaping ability, and thus a very large catch radius. In some respects, Mike Evans may be a better fit with Manuel than Watkins.

[k-oneputt]

Watkins can only help, but I think Manuel would benefit the most from a receiver who is tall and has good leaping ability, and thus a very large catch radius. In some respects, Mike Evans may be a better fit with Manuel than Watkins.

I disagree. Watkins also has a large catch radius and if you watched him in college you already know this. Evans has a larger catch radius but I think Watkns is the better receiver with more skills.
I'm sure Watkins will be running many of the short {get the ball in his hands}patterns he ran at Clemson, which only helps EJ all the more since they are easier throws and reads.

[justasportsfan]

I'm sure Watkins will be running many of the short {get the ball in his hands}patterns he ran at Clemson, which only helps EJ all the more since they are easier throws and reads.

I just hope EJ improves on his short yard accuracy or Watkins will be diving for 5 yards bombs.

[stuckincincy]

Something just hit me while looking at something regarding Spiller that made me think of Watkins. Interestingly both players come from the same program, had the same coach, played in the same or similar offensive system, and Watkins more so than Spiller played in a conference with only two notably good teams, one of which was Clemson, their own team.

Watkins is fast, we know that, it's been timed. It's also been said that this is the primary reason for his success at Clemson.

Well if this is the case, then how come he ranked only 139th last season in yards-per-catch in the NCAA? I mean shouldn't a player that's so blazing fast have been ranked much higher and performed better as such. Keep in mind that many of the players ranked ahead of him were freshmen, sophs, and other juniors. 15 were TE's.

My feelings have been the same prior to the Draft even having taken place, something's not lining up between what's being said and the facts, among which are a gimmick system.

And before some of you say in defense that he caught a lot of his passes near or behind the line-of-scrimmage, think that through.

I felt the same way before we even drafted Watkins and thought that he was highly overrated, just like Spiller. Given the similarities ...

Well..Watkins was highly sought after - he carried most scout/pundit/teams ratings as the top WR throughout almost all the run-up to the draft. I wouldn't be concerned about his speed. He and Woods should make problems for opposing defenses.

Evidently, Woods didn't have a single credited drop last season - impressive.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000360613/article/picking-the-winners-and-losers-of-minicamp-season

[Night Train]

Watkins can only help, but I think Manuel would benefit the most from a receiver who is tall and has good leaping ability, and thus a very large catch radius. In some respects, Mike Evans may be a better fit with Manuel than Watkins.

We have Evans in Mike Williams (comes down with the ball in a crowd)... the athletic Watkins, the route runner and 3rd down go to guy in Woods and the deep burner in Goodwin. No two are remotely the same and the 2 Doug's brought all 4 of them on board in the last 14 months, sending the locker room Diva and his trick groin packing.

I'm rooting for Manuel but with those 4 and depth at RB, he should improve or he's going to be watching someone else QB the team.

Put in the work.

[YardRat]

I've always seen Watkins as more of a possession guy than a burner. Lots of catches, keep the chains moving, with the ability to occasionally turn a short/medium route into a long gainer or a TD.

[Woodman]

Watkins is a playmaker period.

He's gonna give defenses fits.

[TacklingDummy]

Like all WRs, they will only be as good ad the person who is throwing them the ball.

I don't expect much from Watkins.

[swiper]

Pretty sure Tom Brady or Peyton Manning would be happy to have Watkins on their team. Drafting an elite talent is always a good thing. Some time before the draft, Meril Hoge was raving about Watkins' skill set. He has superlative hands and body control and runs like an angry running back with the ball.

Why all this should make him a flashy product of a system without abilities that transfer to the NFL game is beyond me. It's also disturbing that folks want to make the selection a way to continue to denigrate Manuel. I hope EJ turns out well, because the contempt thrown his way is certainly nothing for Buffalo Bills fans to be proud of.

Blind Manuel lover

[Fletch]

1st off, I have no idea what type of offense they ran and what kind of offense the other 138 receivers ahead of him were in either, but...
It all depends on what type of offense a player is in. In an offense like the old Oakland Raiders, WRs yards per catch will be higher than an offense that is designed to move the ball down the field in smaller chunks & eat up the clock that way or through the ground & pound strategy. Every offense is different. The fastest receiver in the world will not lead the nation in YPC if the QB can't throw long & accurate. If the O-line can't give the QB time, no long bombs. If a player is catching TDs in the red zone, his YPC stats go down.

This is another reason I hate using stats for player evaluations. I'll say it again-if stats were so important in football, the coaches would never be watching film, they'd just hand out stat sheets at the meetings. Football is too complex to use stats as anything but a really rough guide. Unless you saw the films of Watkins and the other 138 receivers games, it's impossible to explain why one receiver has a better YPC than another one. If you studied all the films instead of a black & white stat, you may have your answer. I'm sure Whaley & the Bills management saw a lot of Watkins on video before their final evaluation that he is a special player.

Interesting comments. I'm going to assume that you are on the side, of the vast majority I might add, that thinks that Watkins' play will translate to the NFL. I'll comment on those items in bold in order.

Don't you think, given the vast array of offensive styles, nuances, and plays, that do not succeed at the NFL level yet which are used at the collegiate level, that it might be wise to know this?

As to stats, ever heard of the combine? That's nothing but a stat-fest. Also, our sacks last season despite our having allowed 3 more passing TDs over the year prior despite having logged over 20 more sacks, and despite having had a relatively soft schedule but still not having been able to beat one single team that was in the top half of the league in passing. Got any thoughts on that?

You sure about that re: Whaley & the Bills management? Wouldn't the same have been true of Spiller?

Just some things to think about that are inconsistent with your reasoning.

[Fletch]

His game is more then just speed. He runs hard after a catch and is tough to tackle. I've seen him numerous times lower his head and run over d-backs like he was a running back. He actually remind me of Andre Reed some. Watch the highlights of last years Ohio St. game.

And yet he ranked only 139th in yards-per-catch, with 15 TE's, ... TIGHT ENDS, ahead of him. You don't see a contradiction there?

[Fletch]

This is just a disturbingly negative post. Firstly - Watkins is fast, but he doesn't have the timed speed like CJ did - he plays very fast though and is great in the open field.\

And secondly, CJ Spiller is one of the top 5 playmakers in the NFL when healthy. I know he does get hurt but CJ isnt overrated, we need to utilize him properly and if we do, we saw how effective he can be - he averaged 6 yards per carry in 2012.

Check out this article for a more reasonable breakdown of Watkins qualities and flaws:
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46006/349/peshek-top-4-wr-metrics

Of course it's negative, I was bummed with the pick, but that's neither here nor there. But as I said, some fans were hoping for Watkins and I pointed out the same things prior to us having drafted him I'm not happy nor do I think he translates.

Fantastic piece though, everyone here should read it. I've actually been looking for that very data but have been unable to find it. I knew ballpark what it was, but didn't have it quantified like that.

Does anything in that article, AHEM, the chart, much more relevantly the data in it, stand out to you? Look it over and think it through. Talk about disturbingly negative, that piece, perhaps unwittingly, makes my point for me. He focuses on the stuff he wants to highlight, but fails to consider the strength of the competition (an aside here), and also fails to consider other things behind that data.

Anyway, look it over again and tell me if you don't see any glaring issues. He even elaborates on one, but talks about it as if it's irrelevant in the NFL, has ever been proven to work in the NFL (it hasn't), nor considers how each WR's skills will translate.

Here's a hint:

BTW, why did we draft Watkins? Was it to catch screen passes? ... or rather "stretch the field?" If the latter, do you see a better candidate based on that data? I do. I said before the Draft, if we had to take a WR it should be Evans.

[Fletch]

Watkins caught a ton of bubble screens. They were almost like running plays with the Clemson QB Taj Boyd immediately tossing the ball sideways to Watkins.

He's built like a RB. The major reason he was drafted was to help Manuel, who will only launch so many long balls until he finds a thingy called accuracy.


Pure speed ? We may have 3 of the top 10 guys in the NFL in Goodwin, Spiller and Watkins.

Raw stats tell a story with only 20 % of the content.

We've had speed for years, and with QBs that can launch a deep ball.

Graham, Easley are still both on the team and are blazing. Goodwin too was a track star, literally if I recall correctly.

What's funny is that the people that thought that they would do so much for our offense based on their speed are the same ones talking about how stats are meaningless apart from other factors.

Tajh Boyd had a more illustrious career in the ACC than Phillip Rivers did at NC State. Boyd has the current ACC title for most TDs throw by a longshot, 12, over Rivers. If Clemson's system were not largely responsible for that, then he would have been drafted much higher than the 6th round. He's got the same size as Brees too. I suspect that he'll be starting for the Jets much sooner than most realize. Still, who knows if he'll succeed in the NFL, but between a soft schedule and a gimmick system, that affects not only Boyd, but everyone having played in that system. Spiller included years ago in a similar system under the same coach.

[Fletch]

Pretty sure Tom Brady or Peyton Manning would be happy to have Watkins on their team. Drafting an elite talent is always a good thing. Some time before the draft, Meril Hoge was raving about Watkins' skill set. He has superlative hands and body control and runs like an angry running back with the ball.

Why all this should make him a flashy product of a system without abilities that transfer to the NFL game is beyond me. It's also disturbing that folks want to make the selection a way to continue to denigrate Manuel. I hope EJ turns out well, because the contempt thrown his way is certainly nothing for Buffalo Bills fans to be proud of.

You can blame the Einsteins at OBD for any contempt thrown Manuel's way. He was not a legitimate 1st-rounder, but they made him one anyway. With the status comes the expectations.

Either way, I wouldn't feel too badly for him, he's already made more money than almost every poster here will make in a lifetime, and I'm sure if he begins to feel too bad he can always go count it.

[Fletch]

Well..Watkins was highly sought after - he carried most scout/pundit/teams ratings as the top WR throughout almost all the run-up to the draft. I wouldn't be concerned about his speed. He and Woods should make problems for opposing defenses.

Evidently, Woods didn't have a single credited drop last season - impressive.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000360613/article/picking-the-winners-and-losers-of-minicamp-season

I like Woods, but he still has much to prove to become a top WR.

Being sought after means nothing after the fact. Do we really need to rehash the list of draft busts that were "highly sought after?" Braylon Edwards was highly sought after as a WR. Remember, the scouts are wrong just as often and to the same degrees that they are right. There are a whole bunch of WRs with similar skill sets to Watkins, some with speed too, that never did anything significant. In fact, if you look at all the WRs that have been drafted in the top-10 over the last ten years, it's discouraging.

The Good: Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Larry Fitzgeral, Julio Jones. All are significantly bigger than Watkins

The Rest: Braylon Edwards, Justin Blackmon, Roy Williams, Troy Williamson, Darius Heyward-Bey, Tavon Austin, Reggie Williams, Ted Ginn, Mike Williams, and Michael Crabtree.

Here's a very good article on this slice of this topic;

http://buffalowdown.com/2014/06/20/buffalo-bills-sammy-watkins-disappoint-rookie-year/

[Fletch]

Watkins is a playmaker period.

He's gonna give defenses fits.

He was a playmaker against teams with average or worse defensive talent at Clemson. He did little vs. teams with good pass Ds. He did not play well in his last two seasons vs. FSU, the only decent D, besides Clemson's, in the ACC. Even his bowl opponents had below average pass Ds. OSU's stunk.

Point being, he wasn't a playmaker against the few good passing Ds he played against. Sure, like many teams and players that have five times the talent of their opponents, he lit them up. Unfortunately, unlike players like Mike Evans, Watkins rarely faced soon-to-be NFL starting talent.

Will that, the fact that he did it in a gimmick system, and the fact that he did it largely on plays certain not to work to anything close to the same level in the NFL, translate effectively to the pro game? We'll see, but the cards are at least somewhat stacked against it.

By the way, they said the same thing about Spiller, that he was a playmaker. I'm not sure we need another role-playing playmaker that came at such an expense.

[Woodman]

:rofl:

please get serious.

[k-oneputt]

And yet he ranked only 139th in yards-per-catch, with 15 TE's, ... TIGHT ENDS, ahead of him. You don't see a contradiction there?

You see his college qb ? Does his game look familiar ?

[better days]

EJ was not even considered to be the best QB in the draft, let alone a first round pick.

I wanted Glennon myself.

Watkins was not only considered to be the best WR in the draft, but the best offensive player in the draft period.

If EJ can deliver the ball, I expect Watkins to have a GOOD year & help the Bills get to the playoffs.

[WagonCircler]

Pretty sure Tom Brady or Peyton Manning would be happy to have Watkins on their team. Drafting an elite talent is always a good thing.

Elite talent at Watkins' position is wasted with subpar talent that the QB position.

You may be disturbed by those of us calling them like we see them about Manuel, but we are dismayed and angry that the Bills doubled down on him by pissing away next year's first rounder after such a weak rookie showing.

[Fletch]

Elite talent at Watkins' position is wasted with subpar talent that the QB position.

You may be disturbed by those of us calling them like we see them about Manuel, but we are dismayed and angry that the Bills doubled down on him by pissing away next year's first rounder after such a weak rookie showing.

Someone that understands the bigger picture here and the lack of vision and ability of the current front office, which includes Whaley who's been the top personnel man now for five seasons, to be able to put a competitive team together. There are numerous examples of this with this just being the latest.

[trapezeus]

to me, EJ is going to have to develop this year into a multi-read QB. This way he isn't just zero'ing in on his fav target and get picked off on short routes. He's going to have to spread it around to the rest of the team as well.

[Buckets]

OK lets see if I got this straight, we're dissing our #1 pick. The guy that was rated the #1 WR in the draft. The guy that was the greatest bright spot in the rookie mini camp. The guy that has converted most of SW FL from Dolphins fans to Bills fans. The guy that had the most optimistic news reports. I just can't figure out what people want!

[better days]

Elite talent at Watkins' position is wasted with subpar talent that the QB position.

You may be disturbed by those of us calling them like we see them about Manuel, but we are dismayed and angry that the Bills doubled down on him by pissing away next year's first rounder after such a weak rookie showing.

Even if EJ can't make full use of Watkins talents, Sammy should be a Bill for years to come, long after EJ is gone if EJ does not produce.

[Woodman]

Even if EJ can't make full use of Watkins talents, Sammy should be a Bill for years to come, long after EJ is gone if EJ does not produce.

Yep ... you get difference makers when you can period.

E.J. is another issue ... he will be replaced if he doesn't perform ... of that I have no doubt.

[Fletch]

Boy, some of you guys leapfrog the primary points of a discussion like Olympic athletes.

[YardRat]

People's expectations of rookie's performances have gone off the deep end.