Fact or Fiction: Buffalo Bills' defense

[Fletch]

http://espn.go.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/11237/fact-or-fiction-bills-defense

With Buffalo Bills (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/buf/buffalo-bills?ex_cid=null) players set to report to training camp on Friday, we continue our rapid-fire fact or fiction with the Bills' defense:

[more at link]

[better days]

The #1 Fact or Fiction should have been................The Bills will allow less points than last year.

[stuckincincy]

..."4. Stephon Gilmore will earn a Pro Bowl nod this season.

Our take: Fiction
Justify it: OK, this is a lofty goal, but for a former 10th-overall pick entering his third season, the Pro Bowl should be in the discussion. Gilmore's stock was on the rise at this time last year before he fractured his wrist in the preseason and didn't return until midseason. He's healthy now and is looking to take a step forward. Can he move into the same neighborhood as Darrelle Revis, Richard Sherman or Patrick Peterson? Probably not this season, but if he can put up similar performances to Brent Grimes, Alterraun Verner or Joe Haden -- some of the other Pro Bowl cornerbacks last season -- then Gilmore stands a chance of traveling to Arizona this winter. However, our take is that Gilmore falls short. Good cornerbacks are aided by strong safety play and the Bills have question marks in the back- end this season."...

Similar performance to Joe Haden. Hmm.

[Fletch]

The #1 Fact or Fiction should have been................The Bills will allow less points than last year.

And what would you say, Fact or Fiction?

[better days]

And what would you say, Fact or Fiction?

After looking at the stats, I don't know. The Bills gave up 388 points last year. Not that bad really.

The Broncos gave up 399 points last year.

The thing is the Broncos scored 606 points for a plus 207 differential.

The Bills scored 339 points last year for for a minus 49 differential.

I guess the real question is will the Bills score more points than they give up?

I think we can all agree, the Bills season rests on Manuel's shoulders.

[swiper]

I disagree. It rests on his knees, not his shoulders.

[Fletch]

After looking at the stats, I don't know. The Bills gave up 388 points last year. Not that bad really.

The Broncos gave up 399 points last year.

The thing is the Broncos scored 606 points for a plus 207 differential.

The Bills scored 339 points last year for for a minus 49 differential.

I guess the real question is will the Bills score more points than they give up?

I think we can all agree, the Bills season rests on Manuel's shoulders.

I'll say fiction without even giving it much thought, especially with Kiko out.

Like I pointed out, we faced only one RB that finished in the top 14 ahead of Jackson and Spiller. This year we face a number of them.

We got to play a very weak set of offensive teams for anyone that's taken a look at that. That changes this season also, the caliber of offenses we face stiffens up significantly.

Not only do we face better rushing teams but also face better passing teams and more top QBs.

The Patriots will be much better offensively too now that their young WRs have a year behind them, and given that they played exceptionally well as rookies last year with Brady.

I just don't see how this defense improves. To make matters worse, it's going to take 10 games for the offense to develop some chemistry and rythym in the passing game. If Williams doesn't take some kind of charge and prove that he is a strong veteran presence, something he reportedly hasn't come even close to doing, I have no idea how anyone expects our passing game to be anything but bottom third at best. I mean which WR commands double coverage? None. We can prematurely say that Watkins will, but that's far from proven. Even if he does, so what, they'll do it and whose going to take advantage of that? Woods, Goodwin, Williams? Please.

Jackson could quite possibly be limited to backup duty and we have no 3-down RB on the roster at the present time. So what happens if Jackson slows down or even worse, gets injured? Has anyone on the staff thought of that outside of their fantasy football level of reasoning? Chandler's coming off of injury.

There are way way too many things that need to come together for this team to be even average much less go 8-8, put up a winning season, or even make the playoffs. I think that if we can go the same 6-10 given the circumstances that will be halfway remarkable.

[better days]

I'll say fiction without even giving it much thought, especially with Kiko out.

Like I pointed out, we faced only one RB that finished in the top 14 ahead of Jackson and Spiller. This year we face a number of them.

We got to play a very weak set of offensive teams for anyone that's taken a look at that. That changes this season also, the caliber of offenses we face stiffens up significantly.

Not only do we face better rushing teams but also face better passing teams and more top QBs.

The Patriots will be much better offensively too now that their young WRs have a year behind them, and given that they played exceptionally well as rookies last year with Brady.

I just don't see how this defense improves. To make matters worse, it's going to take 10 games for the offense to develop some chemistry and rythym in the passing game. If Williams doesn't take some kind of charge and prove that he is a strong veteran presence, something he reportedly hasn't come even close to doing, I have no idea how anyone expects our passing game to be anything but bottom third at best. I mean which WR commands double coverage? None. We can prematurely say that Watkins will, but that's far from proven. Even if he does, so what, they'll do it and whose going to take advantage of that? Woods, Goodwin, Williams? Please.

Jackson could quite possibly be limited to backup duty and we have no 3-down RB on the roster at the present time. So what happens if Jackson slows down or even worse, gets injured? Has anyone on the staff thought of that outside of their fantasy football level of reasoning? Chandler's coming off of injury.

There are way way too many things that need to come together for this team to be even average much less go 8-8, put up a winning season, or even make the playoffs. I think that if we can go the same 6-10 given the circumstances that will be halfway remarkable.

You may be right about the less points against being fiction.

But I think it is likely the Bills score more than 339 points this year.

Stevie had a mediocre year last year, I think Watkins will put up much better numbers.

Not to mention Mike Williams. Add them two to Robert Woods & I really like the WR group.

I think we will find out in the first game against the Bears if this team is any good or not

[ParanoidAndroid]

The Patriots will be much better offensively too now that their young WRs have a year behind them, and given that they played exceptionally well as rookies last year with Brady.


Their young WR's? You must be talking about Thompkins and Dobson and if you are, they were far from exceptional. Thompkins started 8 games of 12 played and had 32 catches with Tom Brady throwing to him. Dobson had almost identical numbers and both of them had the dropsies. The return of Gronkowski is what will make them better. Amendola gets handled by good CB's but Edelman is tough in the slot.

Woods is going to be a solid #2. It's the QB that is the limiting factor.

[ParanoidAndroid]

You may be right about the less points against being fiction.

But I think it is likely the Bills score more than 339 points this year.

Stevie had a mediocre year last year, I think Watkins will put up much better numbers.

Not to mention Mike Williams. Add them two to Robert Woods & I really like the WR group.

I think we will find out in the first game against the Bears if this team is any good or not

I wouldn't put too much stock in Mike Williams. He has a huge opportunity to revive his career but as soon as EJ struggles to get him the ball, he's going to be a problem.

[Night Train]

Fact : Rodak knows as much about the Bills as my cat

[swiper]

Meow

[Fletch]

You may be right about the less points against being fiction.

But I think it is likely the Bills score more than 339 points this year.

Stevie had a mediocre year last year, I think Watkins will put up much better numbers.

Not to mention Mike Williams. Add them two to Robert Woods & I really like the WR group.

I think we will find out in the first game against the Bears if this team is any good or not

I can appreciate your optimism, but while you say that Stevie had a mediocre year last year, that should cause you great concern for this season. The reason why he had a mediocre year was because of Manuel and the QB situation. Goodwin had less than a mediocre year then and Woods had the same mediocre year. Now we introduce a rookie that hasn't played in the NFL at all and that comes from a system that simply isn't run in the NFL and whose strengths were based on that. Williams, the only significant vet isn't what Stevie was and had less than a mediocre year last year as well yet with a better QB situation, or at least no worse, plus he's got a ton of baggage and just hasn't impressed to date.

Stevie was a competent veteran. I don't see our passing game outperforming last year's. Watkins may put up better numbers than Stevie did last year, but it won't be by much if he does. Expecting 1,000 yards from a rookie is unwise. Expecting more than a few TDs is unwise too. I think that Watkins is going to have the same wake-up call to the NFL that Spiller had. Expectations for him were likewise. Throw in the fact that Manuel's passing and inaccuracy doesn't really match whatever Watkins' downfield speed is going to bring. One thing we know, what was 60% of Watkins' production at Clemson won't work here, namely bubble screens. I'm sure they'll try just because Marrone and Hackett won't figure that out ahead of time, but that won't change it.

Jackson's too old now to be that consistent workhorse and everyone's ridiculously overrating Brown. It's really going to fall on Spiller, but he's just not good on 3rd downs.

I understand the sour grapes angle when players leave here, but let's remember, Stevie set at least one franchise record for receiving for back to back 1,000 yard seasons. That's nothing to casually dismiss. Instead, we should be asking why he didn't do it last season.

At the end of the season I think we're going to look back and tell ourselves that the reason why this season was not an improvement over last season was because of 3rd-down plays on both sides of the ball. We have no legitimate 3rd-down RB besides Jackson who we'll be lucky to have be available for all 16 games and if he is then we'll be lucky to get 700 or 800 yards out of him on an unimpressive yards-per-carry. He's 33. Defensively neither Spikes nor Brown are 3-down LBs and both stink against the pass. So not even mentioning 1st downs, another typical passing down, who are we going to field on 3rd downs? What, Rivers, Bradham, and who else? I mean those are our four best LBs now, Spikes, Brown who's a rookie, Rivers who's a questionable starter, and Bradham whom we've seen and who hasn't lived up to expectations here. That's hardly encouraging. Throw in the fact that we play a significant number of better passing teams and offenses in general, and it's not a recipe for improvement in record or stats.

[better days]

I wouldn't put too much stock in Mike Williams. He has a huge opportunity to revive his career but as soon as EJ struggles to get him the ball, he's going to be a problem.

As a Bucs fan, I can tell you all of Mike Williams problems were off the field.

He had no problems on the team.

[Ginger Vitis]

young WRs have a year behind them, and given that they played exceptionally well as rookies last year with Brady.





You're comedy gold or maybe just not aware because you did not watch the Patriots play at all.. Thompkins was benched half way through the season because he struggled to get separation from CBs and could not get on the same page as Brady. There is a reason Aaron Dobson earned the moniker "Dropson"

[better days]

I can appreciate your optimism, but while you say that Stevie had a mediocre year last year, that should cause you great concern for this season. The reason why he had a mediocre year was because of Manuel and the QB situation. Goodwin had less than a mediocre year then and Woods had the same mediocre year. Now we introduce a rookie that hasn't played in the NFL at all and that comes from a system that simply isn't run in the NFL and whose strengths were based on that. Williams, the only significant vet isn't what Stevie was and had less than a mediocre year last year as well yet with a better QB situation, or at least no worse, plus he's got a ton of baggage and just hasn't impressed to date.

Stevie was a competent veteran. I don't see our passing game outperforming last year's. Watkins may put up better numbers than Stevie did last year, but it won't be by much if he does. Expecting 1,000 yards from a rookie is unwise. Expecting more than a few TDs is unwise too. I think that Watkins is going to have the same wake-up call to the NFL that Spiller had. Expectations for him were likewise. Throw in the fact that Manuel's passing and inaccuracy doesn't really match whatever Watkins' downfield speed is going to bring. One thing we know, what was 60% of Watkins' production at Clemson won't work here, namely bubble screens. I'm sure they'll try just because Marrone and Hackett won't figure that out ahead of time, but that won't change it.

Jackson's too old now to be that consistent workhorse and everyone's ridiculously overrating Brown. It's really going to fall on Spiller, but he's just not good on 3rd downs.

I understand the sour grapes angle when players leave here, but let's remember, Stevie set at least one franchise record for receiving for back to back 1,000 yard seasons. That's nothing to casually dismiss. Instead, we should be asking why he didn't do it last season.

At the end of the season I think we're going to look back and tell ourselves that the reason why this season was not an improvement over last season was because of 3rd-down plays on both sides of the ball. We have no legitimate 3rd-down RB besides Jackson who we'll be lucky to have be available for all 16 games and if he is then we'll be lucky to get 700 or 800 yards out of him on an unimpressive yards-per-carry. He's 33. Defensively neither Spikes nor Brown are 3-down LBs and both stink against the pass. So not even mentioning 1st downs, another typical passing down, who are we going to field on 3rd downs? What, Rivers, Bradham, and who else? I mean those are our four best LBs now, Spikes, Brown who's a rookie, Rivers who's a questionable starter, and Bradham whom we've seen and who hasn't lived up to expectations here. That's hardly encouraging. Throw in the fact that we play a significant number of better passing teams and offenses in general, and it's not a recipe for improvement in record or stats.

Mike Williams was injured last year & missed 6 games. When healthy he is a good receiver.

Stevie was also injured last year, both a hamstring injury & back injury. That accounted for his mediocre year as much as anything

Why won't bubble screens work in the NFL? NFL teams run them all the time especially the Pats*.