JohnnyGold
09-06-2014, 06:58 AM
After shooting a great round (by my embarassingly low standards) yesterday, I was looking at my scorecard when I got home, and getting angry at myself that it could have been better. Like always, I started out slow on the first 2 holes--even going OB on the first hole, taking my two strokes, and then taking 3 putts to finish the hole... but that's not the point of this post. :err:
Thinking back to last years games, one thing that I vaguely remembered hearing during the games was that the Bills hadn't scored a TD in the first quarter until pretty late in the season. And so I wondered: is EJ a "slow starter" as well?
I looked at pro-football-reference.com's boxscores from last season, and compiled a summary of EJ's season, on a quarter-by-quarter basis.
(Disclaimer: I'm sure this has been done before and I missed the thread, and I'm 100% positive that someone can shut this thread down in 3 seconds by posting a link to a site that I overlooked where this breakdown already exists and tell me that I'm posting yesterday's news--additionally, I'm aware that these aren't 100% accurate, because I may have counted some PI penalties and not others in terms of his yardage count... but the TDs, INTs, and Completion % line up perfectly with his posted stat line for the season, so I'm confident that it's accurate to the point that this can be a somewhat meaningful discussion.)
The results were both alarming, and somewhat exciting in terms of getting ready to watch the opening game tomorrow. Here are his stats, broken down by quarter:
Completion percentage
First quarter: 51%
2nd, 3rd, 4th quarters: 63%, 60%, 61%
Yards
First quarter: 297
2nd, 3rd, 4th quarters: 502, 567, 502
TDs
First quarter: 0
2nd, 3rd, 4th quarters: 4, 3, 4
Interceptions
First quarter: 1
2nd, 3rd, 4th quarters: 2, 4, 2
Passing Attempts
First quarter: 57
2nd, 3rd, 4th quarters: 75, 80, 80
SO... at the end of the day, in every important statistical category, EJ is miles ahead of how he plays in the first quarter; and it's actually somewhat shocking how much of a disparity there is. Even the number of passes attempted stands out at me--the Bills coaching staff seems to come out of the gate very conservative (think how many times we deferred the kick off last year as well.)
Why does this matter right now?In the preseason, obviously, EJ is only playing the first quarter, MAYBE into the second. In the Tampa game, he played into the third, (and played well.) Spiller and Jackson played even less than that, not to mention our top wideouts who didn't even start in some cases. So with a quarterback who is, by all statistical measures, a "slow starter" (I prefer conservative starter), taking the first string defense and rb's off the field, like we did all preseason, is going to limit the ball-control game that he is accustomed to playing. To judge what we're going to do this year based on EJ's performance in the first quarter of 5 preseason games seems meaningless--as, statistically, he plays much much better the longer the game goes on. It would be like judging Tiger Woods as a golfer based only on his Thursday scores (from the era when he was winning majors).
So what could this mean for tomorrow?
Speaking as a pessimistic Bills fan, it probably doesn't mean much. I generally hate it when people say "it's just preseason". But in this case, I think we can expect EJ to get off to a slow start against Chicago--but I also think the game plan will look different, as the coaches will likely ease him into the game, limit his throws, and get the ball to CJ and Freddy in space. But more importantly, I look for our first string D to be on the field for more than 1 or 2 series (obviously: it's not the preseason anymore), and create turnovers/field position. That's the kind of game it will be.
But if the Bills can stay close to the Bears going into the half, there's no reason to think the offense can't come alive in the third and fourth quarters.
Thinking back to last years games, one thing that I vaguely remembered hearing during the games was that the Bills hadn't scored a TD in the first quarter until pretty late in the season. And so I wondered: is EJ a "slow starter" as well?
I looked at pro-football-reference.com's boxscores from last season, and compiled a summary of EJ's season, on a quarter-by-quarter basis.
(Disclaimer: I'm sure this has been done before and I missed the thread, and I'm 100% positive that someone can shut this thread down in 3 seconds by posting a link to a site that I overlooked where this breakdown already exists and tell me that I'm posting yesterday's news--additionally, I'm aware that these aren't 100% accurate, because I may have counted some PI penalties and not others in terms of his yardage count... but the TDs, INTs, and Completion % line up perfectly with his posted stat line for the season, so I'm confident that it's accurate to the point that this can be a somewhat meaningful discussion.)
The results were both alarming, and somewhat exciting in terms of getting ready to watch the opening game tomorrow. Here are his stats, broken down by quarter:
Completion percentage
First quarter: 51%
2nd, 3rd, 4th quarters: 63%, 60%, 61%
Yards
First quarter: 297
2nd, 3rd, 4th quarters: 502, 567, 502
TDs
First quarter: 0
2nd, 3rd, 4th quarters: 4, 3, 4
Interceptions
First quarter: 1
2nd, 3rd, 4th quarters: 2, 4, 2
Passing Attempts
First quarter: 57
2nd, 3rd, 4th quarters: 75, 80, 80
SO... at the end of the day, in every important statistical category, EJ is miles ahead of how he plays in the first quarter; and it's actually somewhat shocking how much of a disparity there is. Even the number of passes attempted stands out at me--the Bills coaching staff seems to come out of the gate very conservative (think how many times we deferred the kick off last year as well.)
Why does this matter right now?In the preseason, obviously, EJ is only playing the first quarter, MAYBE into the second. In the Tampa game, he played into the third, (and played well.) Spiller and Jackson played even less than that, not to mention our top wideouts who didn't even start in some cases. So with a quarterback who is, by all statistical measures, a "slow starter" (I prefer conservative starter), taking the first string defense and rb's off the field, like we did all preseason, is going to limit the ball-control game that he is accustomed to playing. To judge what we're going to do this year based on EJ's performance in the first quarter of 5 preseason games seems meaningless--as, statistically, he plays much much better the longer the game goes on. It would be like judging Tiger Woods as a golfer based only on his Thursday scores (from the era when he was winning majors).
So what could this mean for tomorrow?
Speaking as a pessimistic Bills fan, it probably doesn't mean much. I generally hate it when people say "it's just preseason". But in this case, I think we can expect EJ to get off to a slow start against Chicago--but I also think the game plan will look different, as the coaches will likely ease him into the game, limit his throws, and get the ball to CJ and Freddy in space. But more importantly, I look for our first string D to be on the field for more than 1 or 2 series (obviously: it's not the preseason anymore), and create turnovers/field position. That's the kind of game it will be.
But if the Bills can stay close to the Bears going into the half, there's no reason to think the offense can't come alive in the third and fourth quarters.