Jay Cutler Was The Most Catastrophic Quarterback Of Week 1

[imbondz]

not sure this is scientific, but kinda interesting.



http://regressing.deadspin.com/jay-cutler-was-the-most-catastrophic-quarterback-of-wee-1632009572

Sunday's box score (http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2014090702/2014/REG1/bills@bears#menu=gameinfo%7CcontentId%3A0ap3000000391118&tab=analyze&analyze=boxscore) shows that Jay Cutler threw two interceptions and his team lost to the Bills. What it doesn't show is just how much of a nightmare Cutler inflicted on his team's chances. According to data from Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics (http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/), Cutler was responsible for three of the top six most detrimental plays in the NFL on Sunday.

[The Jokeman]

not sure this is scientific, but kinda interesting.



http://regressing.deadspin.com/jay-cutler-was-the-most-catastrophic-quarterback-of-wee-1632009572

Sunday's box score (http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2014090702/2014/REG1/bills@bears#menu=gameinfo%7CcontentId%3A0ap3000000391118&tab=analyze&analyze=boxscore) shows that Jay Cutler threw two interceptions and his team lost to the Bills. What it doesn't show is just how much of a nightmare Cutler inflicted on his team's chances. According to data from Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics (http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/), Cutler was responsible for three of the top six most detrimental plays in the NFL on Sunday.




Cutler has always been a big arm QB but it seems when he's asked to make the play that counts he just can't get it done. Yet at least he did so some good things in his game to at least put his team in position to be in the game unlike Romo. A few other guys who had disasters were Alex Smith and former Bear Luke McCown according to ESPN's QBR formula http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

[better days]

I said before the game, Cutler throws INT's when he is pressured, and the Bills brought the pressure yesterday.

[BillsImpossible]

Cutler passed too much, and the Bears couldn't run the ball. Less than 100 yards for Forte.

How did the Seahawks dismantle the Broncos last Super Bowl?

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2014020200/2013/POST22/seahawks@broncos#menu=gameinfo%7CcontentId%3A0ap2000000324015&tab=recap

Russell Wilson was 18 of 25 for 206 yards and 2 TD's.

The days of one man quarterback driven teams in the NFL are over.

[Fletch]

not sure this is scientific, but kinda interesting.



http://regressing.deadspin.com/jay-cutler-was-the-most-catastrophic-quarterback-of-wee-1632009572

Sunday's box score (http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2014090702/2014/REG1/bills@bears#menu=gameinfo%7CcontentId%3A0ap3000000391118&tab=analyze&analyze=boxscore) shows that Jay Cutler threw two interceptions and his team lost to the Bills. What it doesn't show is just how much of a nightmare Cutler inflicted on his team's chances. According to data from Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics (http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/), Cutler was responsible for three of the top six most detrimental plays in the NFL on Sunday.




So wait a minute, this piece essentially blames Cutler for the Bears loss, it doesn't give credit to our D. Which means that Cutler won us the game, not us.

So which is it? Did we outplay the Bears, or did Cutler cost them the game due to his poor play?

Let me guess, despite the glaring lack of fundamental football stats that typically accompany a win for the winning team, like 1st-downs, 3rd conversions, TOP, etc., our team forced Cutler to play like crap.

Oddly, I didn't read anything in that piece about our swarming defense that allowed over 400 yards. Sounds to me like we won more to poor execution on the part of Cutler and the Bears' offense, who seemed to have no trouble moving the ball on a hefty 4.8 ypc rushing average and over 350 yards passing by Cutler.

Anyway, just curious which it is, that we got a little lucky or that we outplayed Chicago, which I don't see, either in game or statistically.

Open the doors and let the psychos in ...

:whistle:

[TacklingDummy]

Obviously Cutler was the Bills best player yesterday.

[EricStratton]

The article doesn't look like it blames the win (or the Bears loss) of Cutler mistakes, just that Cutler was involved in three of the six plays most responsible for his team not winning.

No opinion is given in the article of whether defenses were responsible for the plays or if they were mistakes.

[Fletch]

Cutler passed too much, and the Bears couldn't run the ball. Less than 100 yards for Forte.

How did the Seahawks dismantle the Broncos last Super Bowl?

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2014020200/2013/POST22/seahawks@broncos#menu=gameinfo%7CcontentId%3A0ap2000000324015&tab=recap

Russell Wilson was 18 of 25 for 206 yards and 2 TD's.

The days of one man quarterback driven teams in the NFL are over.

What do you mean the Bears couldn't run the ball, Forte averaged 4.8 ypc. If we allow that on the season our rushing D will be worse than last season's. It's more accurate to say that they chose not to run the ball, they were doing it effectively when they did obviously.

Cutler wasn't exactly having difficulty cutting through out secondary. He threw for 350 yards.

[Fletch]

The article doesn't look like it blames the win (or the Bears loss) of Cutler mistakes, just that Cutler was involved in three of the six plays most responsible for his team not winning.

No opinion is given in the article of whether defenses were responsible for the plays or if they were mistakes.

Do you think our D played well?

29 Bears 1st downs

349 passing yards for Cutler, 427 total net yards.

[EricStratton]

They held a team that averaged 28 points per game last year to 20 in 4+ quarters and yesterday and so far tonight 15 teams scored more then Chicago so if points are what matters then they played well enough.

Was it great, or course not but it was good enough.

[YardRat]

The only stat that matters is 23-20.

Somebody better tell Joe Flacco's Ravens and Eli Manning's Giants v.1 that they have to give their Lombardi Trophy's back, because looking at the statistics they were both outplayed by San Fran and New England, respectively.

[delectrolux]

Unfortunately for statisticians, it would appear the Bills play a "bend but don't break" style of defense. It will result in big yards and stats for a good offense and QB. Fortunately though, it results in big D plays and low scores.

What remains to be seen is if we just got lucky, or if that is indeed our D strategy. They said the plan was to keep everything in front of them to eliminate the huge plays, so I'm optimistic it was the plan.

[chernobylwraiths]

Bills win, I'm happy.

Bradham and Gilmore hopefully both back this week. Looking forward to Sunday.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

What remains to be seen is if we just got lucky, or if that is indeed our D strategy. They said the plan was to keep everything in front of them to eliminate the huge plays, so I'm optimistic it was the plan.

It was. Watch BB.com. They dropped 7 most of the time after the first Bears offensive series. Making Cutler goes through long series of play to score. So the strategy can be summarized as in 1) stop the run, 2) prevent long passes. So what gives is a lof of short passes underneath and hopefully we get hands on a few ball for take away.

Bears offense as a whole is very good. Maybe Seahawks can shut them down completely, but not most teams. Accomplish what Bills strategy dictated is a win in my book.

Now the Bills offense on the other hand has a lot of work to do. I believe the O-line has a lot of improvement to be made. They executed pass block reasonably well, allowing Manuel to develop some comfort level. The run blocking had more misses than hits, which, for the makeup of this team, is unacceptable. Most of the screens, gadget plays were setup perfectly but due to come linemen not in place where they need to be, resulted nothing. Just look across the field and see how Bears did on their screens, picks, etc. There is a reason why people makes Bears offense as superbowl caliber: not only they have the talent, but also well coached and well executed in general.

[stuckincincy]

It was. Watch BB.com. They dropped 7 most of the time after the first Bears offensive series. Making Cutler goes through long series of play to score. So the strategy can be summarized as in 1) stop the run, 2) prevent long passes. So what gives is a lof of short passes underneath and hopefully we get hands on a few ball for take away.

Bears offense as a whole is very good. Maybe Seahawks can shut them down completely, but not most teams. Accomplish what Bills strategy dictated is a win in my book.

Now the Bills offense on the other hand has a lot of work to do. I believe the O-line has a lot of improvement to be made. They executed pass block reasonably well, allowing Manuel to develop some comfort level. The run blocking had more misses than hits, which, for the makeup of this team, is unacceptable. Most of the screens, gadget plays were setup perfectly but due to come linemen not in place where they need to be, resulted nothing. Just look across the field and see how Bears did on their screens, picks, etc. There is a reason why people makes Bears offense as superbowl caliber: not only they have the talent, but also well coached and well executed in general.

If the Bears were faced with the Bills dropping back 7 most of the time, then they were idiots not to run Forte much more than they did.

[Fletch]

Unfortunately for statisticians, it would appear the Bills play a "bend but don't break" style of defense. It will result in big yards and stats for a good offense and QB. Fortunately though, it results in big D plays and low scores.

What remains to be seen is if we just got lucky, or if that is indeed our D strategy. They said the plan was to keep everything in front of them to eliminate the huge plays, so I'm optimistic it was the plan.

So what you're saying then, if I read you correctly, is that the D has been designed to allow 4.8 ypc and 300+ passing yards every game but to keep points down?

How is that possible, to scheme something like that?

I didn't see a bend don't break, what I saw was a broken D that was supposed to be better at stopping the run but which allowed more yards per carry than we did last season when it wasn't good, a D that allowed 350 yards passing, 29 1st downs, but which got somewhat lucky at the sloppy play of the opposing QB. Every article I've read indicates that the writer thinks that Cutler played a sloppy game and the loss was on him. I haven't read one yet that talks about how smothering our new and improved D was.

Anyway, did I read you correctly?

[ghz in pittsburgh]

If the Bears were faced with the Bills dropping back 7 most of the time, then they were idiots not to run Forte much more than they did.

The Bills were stopping Bears run offense without additional safety help. Please don't tell me Forte had so and so yards per carry, so just run more. The bills let him leaked a few 10+ yards when Hughes was in there, but he's not getting consistent numbers to warrant more than the better option - Cutler's arm and receiving targets.

[trapezeus]

so i guess cutler just made horrible mistakes like taking the snap, putting it on the rug and running the opposite direction, right fletch?

it's a chicken and egg debate. the bills gave up yards, but they made plays. were they gifts? the kyle williams one kind of was. the graham one was a nice play on a broken play. even if cutler and the WR were on the same page, it would have been broken up because the Safety was closing in on the play.

the bills also coverted good field position into points. bad teams don't. the billls weren't bad on sunday. they made the plays when they were there. did the d make the bears go 3 and out in OT? is that a big deal?

[better days]

Unfortunately for statisticians, it would appear the Bills play a "bend but don't break" style of defense. It will result in big yards and stats for a good offense and QB. Fortunately though, it results in big D plays and low scores.

What remains to be seen is if we just got lucky, or if that is indeed our D strategy. They said the plan was to keep everything in front of them to eliminate the huge plays, so I'm optimistic it was the plan.

Schwartz has said the only thing he cares about is points on the board.

As a Bucs fan as well as a Bills fan, I watched the Bucs give up a lot of yards while going to & winning a Super Bowl.

[better days]

so i guess cutler just made horrible mistakes like taking the snap, putting it on the rug and running the opposite direction, right fletch?

it's a chicken and egg debate. the bills gave up yards, but they made plays. were they gifts? the kyle williams one kind of was. the graham one was a nice play on a broken play. even if cutler and the WR were on the same page, it would have been broken up because the Safety was closing in on the play.

the bills also coverted good field position into points. bad teams don't. the billls weren't bad on sunday. they made the plays when they were there. did the d make the bears go 3 and out in OT? is that a big deal?

McKelvin could have had a pick as well, but dropped the ball.

It was a bad decision by Cutler to throw that ball, but Kyle had to make a play or it would have been just an incomplete pass like on the play with McKelvin.

[Fletch]

so i guess cutler just made horrible mistakes like taking the snap, putting it on the rug and running the opposite direction, right fletch?

it's a chicken and egg debate. the bills gave up yards, but they made plays. were they gifts? the kyle williams one kind of was. the graham one was a nice play on a broken play. even if cutler and the WR were on the same page, it would have been broken up because the Safety was closing in on the play.

the bills also coverted good field position into points. bad teams don't. the billls weren't bad on sunday. they made the plays when they were there. did the d make the bears go 3 and out in OT? is that a big deal?

We played in a way that won't win us many games. We won, but we're not going 10-6 by playing that way. More like 4-12.

We simply cannot give up 4.8 yards per carry and allow 30 1st downs and 400+ yards on a regular basis. It won't win games.

That should be simple enough.

On that note, what happened to our illustrious rushing defense? Wasn't it suppose to be a top-5 rushing D?

It's only been one week, but we rank 21st in rushing average and 12th in yards.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

McKelvin could have had a pick as well, but dropped the ball.

It was a bad decision by Cutler to throw that ball, but Kyle had to make a play or it would have been just an incomplete pass like on the play with McKelvin.

If your opponent cannot run the ball and you can limit their big plays, very few QBs in the league can beat you consistently going through long drive after long drive in the air to beat you in the kind of D line pressure the Bills have. I'll put Brady, Brees, and Rogers there, but not Peyton Manning and certainly not Roethlisberger.

The more passes thrown by a QB, the more likely bad something happens like a deflection, INT, etc. if you can limit the good thing (a long completion/RAC).

Before everyone rips me, I want to add that Manning and Roethlisberger right now are more than likely to lead their teams to beat the Bills, but they will get big plays - Manning through exploiting matchups and Roethlisberger through scramble big plays.

The way Schwartz sets up the D line rotation, he's keeping the aging but still the best players like Mario and Kyle fresh at the end of the game. God knows we are going to play this kind of close games against good teams this season where you want your best in the last series.

[better days]

We played in a way that won't win us many games. We won, but we're not going 10-6 by playing that way. More like 4-12.

We simply cannot give up 4.8 yards per carry and allow 30 1st downs and 400+ yards on a regular basis. It won't win games.

That should be simple enough.

On that note, what happened to our illustrious rushing defense? Wasn't it suppose to be a top-5 rushing D?

It's only been one week, but we rank 21st in rushing average and 12th in yards.

You win games by putting up more points than the other team.

The Bucs gave up MANY more yards than they put up the year they won the Super Bowl.

The Bucs put the points on the board, not the yards on some fantasy sheet.

[better days]

If your opponent cannot run the ball and you can limit their big plays, very few QBs in the league can beat you consistently going through long drive after long drive in the air to beat you in the kind of D line pressure the Bills have. I'll put Brady, Brees, and Rogers there, but not Peyton Manning and certainly not Roethlisberger.

The more passes thrown by a QB, the more likely bad something happens like a deflection, INT, etc. if you can limit the good thing (a long completion/RAC).

Before everyone rips me, I want to add that Manning and Roethlisberger right now are more than likely to lead their teams to beat the Bills, but they will get big plays - Manning through exploiting matchups and Roethlisberger through scramble big plays.

The way Schwartz sets up the D line rotation, he's keeping the aging but still the best players like Mario and Kyle fresh at the end of the game. God knows we are going to play this kind of close games against good teams this season where you want your best in the last series.

This is pretty much the idea behind the Tampa two defense.

Force other teams into having to run a lot of plays to score points. Do not give up the big play. Keep everything in front of you on defense.

[trapezeus]

We played in a way that won't win us many games. We won, but we're not going 10-6 by playing that way. More like 4-12.

We simply cannot give up 4.8 yards per carry and allow 30 1st downs and 400+ yards on a regular basis. It won't win games.

That should be simple enough.

On that note, what happened to our illustrious rushing defense? Wasn't it suppose to be a top-5 rushing D?

It's only been one week, but we rank 21st in rushing average and 12th in yards.

who said they were a top 5 rushing defense? they weren't last year and they lost a few LBs to make it hard to believe they would be top 5.

as long as we are using week 1 stats as a proxy of how the team will end up at year end, let's look at the bills #4 ranked rush offense. If they do that every week, 200 yards rushing a week will win a lot of games.

i like looking at stats in a vacuum and making bold statements. thanks fletch

[better days]

who said they were a top 5 rushing defense? they weren't last year and they lost a few LBs to make it hard to believe they would be top 5.

as long as we are using week 1 stats as a proxy of how the team will end up at year end, let's look at the bills #4 ranked rush offense. If they do that every week, 200 yards rushing a week will win a lot of games.

i like looking at stats in a vacuum and making bold statements. thanks fletch

I said I think the Bills would have a top 10 rush defense this year under Schwartz & that I would not be surprised if they were in the top 5.

I still feel that way, & Spikes had a monster game against the Bears.

[trapezeus]

spikes also looked like a weak link in coverage. exactly how he was for the pats. a hard hitting player on run support, a potential liability in coverage on RBs. if kiko was there, i think the defense would have a better chance of being in top 5.

as it stands now, they needs some help. gettting gilmore back may help.

[OLDSRIP]

The only stat that matters is 23-20.

Somebody better tell Joe Flacco's Ravens and Eli Manning's Giants v.1 that they have to give their Lombardi Trophy's back, because looking at the statistics they were both outplayed by San Fran and New England, respectively.


Exactly correct, Yardrat.

The final score is all that matters.
Big offensive numbers have never meant you win the game.

I can't believe some people are complaining about how they won.

Just enjoy it and hope it continues.

Go Bills

[Buckets]

Bills never get any props.

[Fletch]

Bills never get any props.

Should we be getting them?

With our record of futility I think we've got some major digging to do to merely gain some simple respect first. No one's going to give us the time of day until that happens.

[Fletch]

The only stat that matters is 23-20.

Is that all that matters? Really?

You don't think that it matters that if we play like that week in and week out that winning is unsustainable?

It's all that matters for a good team that lapses a couple of times a season and pulls one out of their ass like that.

I'm not sure it's irrelevant if you're us and cannot provide any sustained consistently good play.

Again, you think that having allowed 4.8 ypc rushing doesn't matter? You keep talking but you never address whether or not this may be relevant in future games.

You think that allowing over 400 yards is irrelevant?

Or 30 1st downs? OK, 29 then. You think that's irrelevant?

In the discussion of one game maybe if one is so short-sighted, but over the longer haul of an entire season it should be very relevant.

I've already asked the question and can't seem to see anyone responding, but what happened to our rushing D? It was supposed to be all but airtight. But we allowed 4.8 yards per carry, 21st in the league. Doesn't sound very good to me. Yet, there's no explanation.

And before you or anyone else says it's only one game and it's a long season, consider that your remarks don't seem to reflect that. If that's the case then this, "how we won," becomes very relevant because its not a method by which we will consistently win more games. You don't win games by allowing 400+ yards, 30 1st-downs, or by allowing almost 5 yards per carry rushing.

Feel free to actually address the questions.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Schwartz has said the only thing he cares about is points on the board.

As a Bucs fan as well as a Bills fan, I watched the Bucs give up a lot of yards while going to & winning a Super Bowl.

The Bucs were best in the league by yards in 2002. They didn't bend OR break. Indeed they never fell out of the Top 10 in yards allowed (and barely fell out of the Top 5) from Dungy's 2nd year on through until their collapse in 2006.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

You win games by putting up more points than the other team.

The Bucs gave up MANY more yards than they put up the year they won the Super Bowl.

The Bucs put the points on the board, not the yards on some fantasy sheet.

This is not only false, but easily proven false.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/tam/2002.htm

[Buckets]

Should we be getting them?

With our record of futility I think we've got some major digging to do to merely gain some simple respect first. No one's going to give us the time of day until that happens.

Yes we won the game. Excuses don't count. The score at the end of the game is what matters. Need any more to justify some props at least on the zone?