why we watch the games- QB stats

[trapezeus]

In first full season (16 game season) for 1. Drew Brees, 2. Peyton Manning, 3. Ben Roethlisberger, 4. JP Losman and 5. EJ manuel (thus far at 13).

My point from stats below isn't that he'll be great or terrible. he could be kyle orton and just stay at this level. but most QBs, it seems, have very similar paths when starting. EJ is still 3 games shy of a full 16. i can't think of who a worse qb was than losman, but i would suspect his first 16 games would be in this general company.

I think once we hit 20-25 games, we start to see who plans to develop and who is going to fade away. the 3 guys who got it, got better the following year. Only Brees struggled for another year before he took off. Losman steadily got worse.

So really the only point of this is to say, I don't really know where EJ is going. I have a lot of concerns on the accuracy in terms of all the throws on the passing tree (clearly not a stat) and how that plays out long term. i think we need to see 20-25 games before we have a good feel for him. and i would be willing to go a full season with him to conclusively prove he isn't the answer than to prolong that period of figuring out who he will be by benching him this season. My expectations for this season were pretty low and i really just want to know if we need to look again for a QB next year or not. I would hate to have this situation where we all know the guy has failed but we stick with him through another 1-2 seasons like we have the last 4-5 qb's we've had.

1. Completion percentage - 60.8%,
3,284 yards,
YPA - 6.24,
TD/Turnovers - 0.94x
QBR - 76.9


2. Completion percentage - 56.7%,
3,739 yards,
YPA - 6.5,
TD/Turnovers - 0.87x
QBR - 71.2

3. Completion percentage - 66.4%,
2,621 yards,
YPA - 8.89,
TD/Turnovers - 1.42x
QBR - 98.1

4. Completion percentage - 62.5%,
3,051 yards,
YPA - 7.11,
TD/Turnovers - 0.90x
QBR - 84.6

5 Completion percentage - 59.8%,
2,585 yards,
YPA - 6.58,
TD/Turnovers - 0.82x
QBR - 80.6

[stuckincincy]

How do you figure in recent successes, like youngsters such as Luck, Dalton, Wilson, and Kapernick getting their clubs into playoffs?

[RedEyE]

Great question Cincy and excellent thread.

[BuffaloRedleg]

My question is more intangible and ultimately unanswerable.

What kind of reads were those young QBs making you are comparing him to? Were they taking the short dump-off like Trent and EJ do and missing the open reads down field? Did they play afraid? I remember Brady used to do that stuff all the time, but I don't think he was missing reads I think the offense was intentionally designed that way. This is a much more talented offense than Brady had in his early years. Other than him, I don't remember any elite QB in the league right now who played so scared early.

That is my issue. My problem is not accuracy or stats or anything like that. It's just that he plays afraid. He doesn't have a killer instinct when he runs with the ball and runs out of bounds 2 yards before a first down to avoid contact.

Great QBs are fearless. EJ plays comfortable. QBs need to be tenacious and compete hard. I just don't see it in EJ, who just does not play with an edge at all.

You can coach and teach a lot of things, but I'm not so sure you can teach that ferocious edge that separates Russel Wilson (who is otherwise a nice calm religious guy) and EJ. That doesn't mean being fearless is everything, as evidenced by JP Losman and Geno Smith. They play fearless but do not have the smarts.

I'm hesitant to say a professional NFL player is playing scared because it's a tough and physical job, but they are compensated very well to do that job. Playing scared is inexcusable and results in they types of games we saw Sunday.

[BOBM253]

EJ doesn't pass the eye test. Stats aside, just look at his play, passing ability, accuracy, composure, football smarts and temperment. Most future stars look the part even when struggling. I haven't seen that yet in EJ. Hope he eventually gets it.

[trapezeus]

EJ doesn't pass the eye test. Stats aside, just look at his play, passing ability, accuracy, composure, football smarts and temperment. Most future stars look the part even when struggling. I haven't seen that yet in EJ. Hope he eventually gets it.

you felt that with brees in his first few years? he seemed smallish, struggled to make an impact and was on a mid-level team. and he struggled with a great running back and TE.

Roesthlisberger got a lot of game manager accolades. but you can see in his stats, when he threw, he connected for bigger plays and avoided turnovers. Peyton is peyton. i think we all felt like he was going to come along and was just on a truly bad team when he took over.

there definitely is a non quant piece to this. and as i said, to me that is accuracy. i don't know how you show it other than, as you say, it doesn't pass the eye test.

but to me, if you bail on him now, there are a few things that makes this very buffalo:

1. we are paying him for the season - it is another 2-3 years with him on contract. why go to term, if we can find out now that we don't want him? why make those payments? why carry that cost? this is just a business decision.
2. we need to know while the team's assets are still fresh- the team is still fairly young across the board. the WRs, the line, many parts of the d. why waste a couple years wasting everyone's time when you can just spend one year and see how it goes.

personally, i think the stats for manuel will comes out flat. he'll remain fairly average and it will be a hard call stat wise on whether he should be given more time. the con is that his accuracy is very questionable, the pro is that he never lets it get to him. losman, edwards, fitz, when teams got to them, they just carried it on their shoulders and you knew they couldn't come back. Manuel shrugs a lot of the negative off and comes right back looking ot make a play. that is a good characteristic to have if he can be coached to perform better.

[sudzy]

How do you figure in recent successes, like youngsters such as Luck, Dalton, Wilson, and Kapernick getting their clubs into playoffs?

We'll just ignore that, because it doesn't serve their point.

[Fletch]

personally, i think the stats for manuel will comes out flat. he'll remain fairly average and it will be a hard call stat wise on whether he should be given more time. the con is that his accuracy is very questionable, the pro is that he never lets it get to him. losman, edwards, fitz, when teams got to them, they just carried it on their shoulders and you knew they couldn't come back. Manuel shrugs a lot of the negative off and comes right back looking ot make a play. that is a good characteristic to have if he can be coached to perform better.

Thank you Mr. Astute. Looking to make plays and actually making them are two different things that you've obviously failed to pick up on.

Here's something to chew on, Manuel never let things get to him at FSU. The coaching there was superior to what ours is here.

I realize that you don't think that it's relevant, but it is. Have you ever bothered to look at what Brees and Roethlisburger did in college, probably with less talent? There isn't a big comparison. They didn't show the same issues through three or four years of college ball that EJ has.

I'm holding out hope that this will sink in for you at some point prior to when EJ permanently becomes a backup somewhere else.

[Meathead]

im not buying this 'ej is still a rookie' angle

game experience obviously is best but theres real science behind the idea of mental reps. research shows that shooting foul shots either in your mind via visualization or in real life is close to equivalent (literally 90+%) regarding your level of improvement over time

a responsible player uses that time to intensely visualize everything they are learning, all opponent breakdowns, all game plan preparation, every adjustment they are trying to change in their own game, everything. a young qb can get great value just miming footwork even if they care barely walk, effectively programming it into memory for when they hit the field

so i would honestly say mental reps count for at least half of game experience and probably more likely three-quarters. whatever pcent you choose, for a qb it really is a mental game, either by experience and/or natural ability. you need the physical play to keep everything at game speed and variability, but most of what youre doing happens between the earholes, and that can be exercised via responsible visualization

one thing we can confidently say about ej is that he is a responsible player. so his missed starts really do still count to a very significant degree in his mental development. he needs to show he can use all that information now, all the same expectations as if he had started every game still apply

hes a second year qb

case cloosed

http://blog.sarcasmsociety.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/ArchieBunker.jpg

[trapezeus]

We'll just ignore that, because it doesn't serve their point.
free to look those guys up. again, you'll see their stats in the same area over 16 games.

[The Jokeman]

How do you figure in recent successes, like youngsters such as Luck, Dalton, Wilson, and Kapernick getting their clubs into playoffs?

They were added to teams that had better surrounding casts. Luck was a 1st overall pick to yet three years prior to his arrival were a Super Bowl team. Dalton, Wilson and Kaepernick were all drafted outside Round 1. Look at some of the players drafted before them that there team acquired: AJ Green, Bruce Irvin and Bobby Wagner and Aldon Smith to name a few. Sure the Bills landed Kiko after EJ so that might be debatable but I'd contend the talent level we har surrounding EJ last year was a lot worse than the Colts, Bengals and Seahawks had early in their QBs careers. I think this year the Bills may have gotten the talent level that we're no longer a bottom 10 team.

[The Jokeman]

im not buying this 'ej is still a rookie' angle

game experience obviously is best but theres real science behind the idea of mental reps. research shows that shooting foul shots either in your mind via visualization or in real life is close to equivalent (literally 90+%) regarding your level of improvement over time

a responsible player uses that time to intensely visualize everything they are learning, all opponent breakdowns, all game plan preparation, every adjustment they are trying to change in their own game, everything. a young qb can get great value just miming footwork even if they care barely walk, effectively programming it into memory for when they hit the field

so i would honestly say mental reps count for at least half of game experience and probably more likely three-quarters. whatever pcent you choose, for a qb it really is a mental game, either by experience and/or natural ability. you need the physical play to keep everything at game speed and variability, but most of what youre doing happens between the earholes, and that can be exercised via responsible visualization

one thing we can confidently say about ej is that he is a responsible player. so his missed starts really do still count to a very significant degree in his mental development. he needs to show he can use all that information now, all the same expectations as if he had started every game still apply

hes a second year qb

case cloosed

http://blog.sarcasmsociety.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/ArchieBunker.jpg

and look at what some other 2nd year QBs have done this year. Would you say EJ has played worse than Geno Smith and Mike Glennon? I wouldn't. As to me he's been better. As "bad" as EJ has looked he's still 6-7 thirteen into his NFL career. Let's not forget Jim Kelly went 4-12 despite having two years experience with the USFL before arriving in the NFL.

[sudzy]

and look at what some other 2nd year QBs have done this year. Would you say EJ has played worse than Geno Smith and Mike Glennon? I wouldn't. As to me he's been better. As "bad" as EJ has looked he's still 6-7 thirteen into his NFL career. Let's not forget Jim Kelly went 4-12 despite having two years experience with the USFL before arriving in the NFL.

I love when people compare Kelly's 1986 record to EJ. Kelly took over a team that was coming off two consecutive 2-14 seasons, with a bottom 5 defense and Rob Riddick as it's leading rusher. EJ has a top ten defense and CJ and Freddy. Apples and oranges.

[The Jokeman]

I love when people compare Kelly's 1986 record to EJ. Kelly took over a team that was coming off two consecutive 2-14 seasons, with a bottom 5 defense and Rob Riddick as it's leading rusher. EJ has a top ten defense and CJ and Freddy. Apples and oranges.

Where do you rank the Bills D from last year? Sure we got sacks and INTs but we weren't ranked all that high as we were like butter against the run easily bottom 5 in that category and sure we were strong against the pass but think it more a reflection on how bad a run D we had. Also back to Jim and the O wasn't great until we got Thurman Thomas, hate to tell you but Freddie is no Thurman Thomas. He might have been close in 2011 but how many Pro Bowls has he been to? Oh yeah none. Freddie is a great locker room guy and guy that fans can appreciate but he's not a great NFL RB just average in my book. AM I saying EJ has looked great? No but I don't think he's played as bad as some make him out to be either. To me EJ's ceiling is that of a Rich Gannon/Steve McNair type which to me is above average.

[OpIv37]

I love when people compare Kelly's 1986 record to EJ. Kelly took over a team that was coming off two consecutive 2-14 seasons, with a bottom 5 defense and Rob Riddick as it's leading rusher. EJ has a top ten defense and CJ and Freddy. Apples and oranges.
I agree with your general sentiment that it's not a good comparison but disagree on the top 10 D thing. With Kiko this D would have had an outside shot but without him they'll be middle of the pack.

[sudzy]

and yet Jim and the O wasn't great until we got Thurman Thomas, hate to tell you but Freddie is no Thurman Thomas. He might have been close in 2011 but how many Pro Bowls has he been to? Oh yeah none. Freddie is a great locker room guy and guy that fans can appreciate but he's not a great NFL RB just average in my book.

OK so Thurman>Freddy>>>>>>Rob Riddick. The talent on this team is 10x better then the 1986 Bills. So comparing Kelly 86 record to EJ's first 13 games is like comparing apples and oranges.

[sudzy]

I agree with your general sentiment that it's not a good comparison but disagree on the top 10 D thing. With Kiko this D would have had an outside shot but without him they'll be middle of the pack.

2013 Bills 10th in total defense
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&defensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&conference=ALL&role=OPP&season=2013&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=TOTAL_YARDS_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-n=1

That's what I'm going off of and that's the year 10 of EJ's 13 games we're using as a comparison.

[The Jokeman]

OK so Thurman>Freddy>>>>>>Rob Riddick. The talent on this team is 10x better then the 1986 Bills. So comparing Kelly 86 record to EJ's first 13 games is like comparing apples and oranges.
Okay then let's look at Kelly's second year we were 6-6 his third year 13-3 and his fourth year 6-7 or a combined 29-28 his first four years. So let's not toss EJ aside just yet is all I'm saying. Give this kid the rest of the season and see what we can do and heck maybe next season too.

[swiper]

They were added to teams that had better surrounding casts.

ROFLMAO. The Bills have a great supporting cast.

[sudzy]

Okay then let's look at Kelly's second year we were 6-6 his third year 13-3 and his fourth year 6-7 or a combined 29-28 his first four years. So let's not toss EJ aside just yet is all I'm saying. Give this kid the rest of the season and see what we can do and heck maybe next season too.

He's getting next year. Whaley has seen to that when he traded away their best chance to replace him. My question is : in two year, if Whaley is fortunate to get another GM job will he be willing to bet on EJ again.

[The Jokeman]

He's getting next year. Whaley has seen to that when he traded away their best chance to replace him. My question is : in two year, if Whaley is fortunate to get another GM job will he be willing to bet on EJ again.

IF Whaley fails as GM here I doubt he'll get a second chance. He might get a chance to be a team's Pro Personnel director but unlikely a GM job unless he can latch onto a team and helps them turn around from a middle of the pack team to a Super Bowl contender overnight.

[swiper]

He's not off to a great start.

[The Jokeman]

He's not off to a great start.

We agree to disagree. I think this team has looked far better and seems to have more talent front to back that we've seen in recent years. EJ is what he is a game manager this year butt with a little polish he can be a top 15 NFL QB.

[Mace]

I love when people compare Kelly's 1986 record to EJ. Kelly took over a team that was coming off two consecutive 2-14 seasons, with a bottom 5 defense and Rob Riddick as it's leading rusher. EJ has a top ten defense and CJ and Freddy. Apples and oranges.

Oh geez, as OP said, apples and oranges, just because the game has changed, but they had Andre Reed (HOF), Metzelaars, their O-line was Jones, Ritcher, Hull, Wolford and Devlin.

On D they had Bruce Smith (HOF), Talley, aging but still capable Freeman and Romes, yet to top out Marve and Bellinger....

Ray Bentley, Derrick Burroughs, Jerry Butler, Dwight Drane, Mark Kelso and Frank Reich.

A lot of those guys weren't superstars, but decent players comparable to the current roster if not superstars for their day.

For that matter Elway was not all that back then for quite a while.

The '86 coaches were Bullough (hc), Ringo (oc) and Herb Pattera (dc) for heavens sakes. It took Levy coming in and handing off OC to Marchibroda and DC to Walt Corey to make them a buzzsaw.

I'm with BuffaloRedleg and I'll refine it more. Manuel doesn't play with aggressive confidence and is too quick to pawn off his responsibilities on "the team" while attempting to be "The Man".

It doesn't mean he can't step up and may as well roll with it now, but it's real alarming he's not yet broken 300 yards, only ever came close once, and they seem unable to turn him loose when they need to.

You don't usually see young QB's throwing behind so many receivers, they're aggressive, trying to make their mark and wanting to get that ball downfield and not as mentioned playing scared.

This coaching staff is not going to get the best out of whatever Manuel could become imho. He's confidently passive because he's sure he's doing what they told him to and he is.

[YardRat]

How do you figure in recent successes, like youngsters such as Luck, Dalton, Wilson, and Kapernick getting their clubs into playoffs?

Luck---joined a team whose talent wasn't nearly as bad as their record, in a poor division...Irsay tanked the season.
Dalton---Defense
Wilson---Definitely defense
Kaoernick---joined a playoff team, defense

There is, for the most part, a common thread...and it ain't QB.

[The Jokeman]

Oh geez, as OP said, apples and oranges, just because the game has changed, but they had Andre Reed (HOF), Metzelaars, their O-line was Jones, Ritcher, Hull, Wolford and Devlin.

On D they had Bruce Smith (HOF), Talley, aging but still capable Freeman and Romes, yet to top out Marve and Bellinger....

Ray Bentley, Derrick Burroughs, Jerry Butler, Dwight Drane, Mark Kelso and Frank Reich.

A lot of those guys weren't superstars, but decent players comparable to the current roster if not superstars for their day.

For that matter Elway was not all that back then for quite a while.

The '86 coaches were Bullough (hc), Ringo (oc) and Herb Pattera (dc) for heavens sakes. It took Levy coming in and handing off OC to Marchibroda and DC to Walt Corey to make them a buzzsaw.

I'm with BuffaloRedleg and I'll refine it more. Manuel doesn't play with aggressive confidence and is too quick to pawn off his responsibilities on "the team" while attempting to be "The Man".

It doesn't mean he can't step up and may as well roll with it now, but it's real alarming he's not yet broken 300 yards, only ever came close once, and they seem unable to turn him loose when they need to.

You don't usually see young QB's throwing behind so many receivers, they're aggressive, trying to make their mark and wanting to get that ball downfield and not as mentioned playing scared.

This coaching staff is not going to get the best out of whatever Manuel could become imho. He's confidently passive because he's sure he's doing what they told him to and he is.

EJ kind of reminds me of RJ in that he's so hell bent on making a critical mistake. The difference is EJ he can at least sense pressure and/or avoid the sack by dumping it off to RBs. I guess that's where the Trent comparisons come from. He does have problems getting receivers in stride no doubt. But honestly I prefer EJ playing the way he does than say Geno Smith who to me kills his team with all the turnovers.

[Mace]

EJ kind of reminds me of RJ in that he's so hell bent on making a critical mistake. The difference is EJ he can at least sense pressure and/or avoid the sack by dumping it off to RBs. I guess that's where the Trent comparisons come from. He does have problems getting receivers in stride no doubt. But honestly I prefer EJ playing the way he does than say Geno Smith who to me kills his team with all the turnovers.

I can absolutely agree with that, yes.

[YardRat]

Ray Bentley, Derrick Burroughs, Jerry Butler, Dwight Drane, Mark Kelso and Frank Reich.

I thanked this post simply because of the mention of Burroughs...Kid was just coming into his own and reaching lock-down ability. IMO he'd be in the discussion for best Bills cb ever if not for the neck injury in Houston.

[Mace]

I thanked this post simply because of the mention of Burroughs...Kid was just coming into his own and reaching lock-down ability. IMO he'd be in the discussion for best Bills cb ever if not for the neck injury in Houston.

I want to say Bellinger, and Marve also had career damaging injuries back then, I know Butler did. That team had some talent, if coached by Bullough with Paterra as DC. Yes, I remember Burroughs well though.

[trapezeus]

what struck me from the qb's i selected is that if EJ can play like Big Ben's first year which was "don't throw a lot, but make sure the throws you make are in the 7 yard range or better, vs shorter screens, then you don't have to do much." ben didn't make a lot of turnovers. EJ for better or worse has not made many turnovers. thus far, when EJ is throwing 7 yards on average or higher, the team does well. when it's less than 7 it tends to be a lot of drive stalls etc.

some of the guys like brees and peyton were clearly going to have to carry teams to win. That worked with their style. i don't think that's what we are going to get if EJ succeeds. i think he'll be a big ben type. where the repetion of playing conservatively helps him over a year or two to develop. if he doesn't come along, then he'll be a bust.

for him to get to that ben status, he's going to have to deliver passes over 6 yards accurately when it's called for him. and what is odd is if you look at his situational stats, he actually is more accuarte on passes over 6 yards than under. some of that is because he dinks a lot more than going for 7+ yard passes. so when he connects on 2 of his 3 attempts it looks better than when he goes 5 of 10 on shorter passes. but he isn't completely failing on his longer throws. he has the stats to say he can do it. he needs to trust the play and make these plays. if he can't, at the end of the year, we'll know we have to find another qb.

[stuckincincy]

Luck---joined a team whose talent wasn't nearly as bad as their record, in a poor division...Irsay tanked the season.
Dalton---Defense
Wilson---Definitely defense
Kaoernick---joined a playoff team, defense

There is, for the most part, a common thread...and it ain't QB.

Oh, it definitely helps to be drafted by a club with a decent defense - although, statistically at least, BUF's was good.

But Luck, Dalton, Wilson, and Kaepernick when he got the call stepped in and took command of an offense, showed pocket presence, that extra set of "eyes" that sense the open man, that anticipates a receiver's moves and routes. Manual is not there yet; time will tell. And frankly, I'd like to see him risk the interception and get those longer balls down. :tip:

They did benefit from good coaching, the exception being Dalton who was burdened with Jay Gruden. His play calls in playoff games were horrid, and his overall philosophy was take what they give you, rather that try to enforce your will.

I'm not sure that raw QB stats - absent something glaring like a bunch of interceptions or fumbles - is an especially meaningful yardstick. I feel that the inexorable rule changes favoring the pass game blurs them.

[Yasgur's Farm]

I love when people compare Kelly's 1986 record to EJ. Kelly took over a team that was coming off two consecutive 2-14 seasons, with a bottom 5 defense and Rob Riddick as it's leading rusher. EJ has a top ten defense and CJ and Freddy. Apples and oranges.You can go there if you like... But your also gonna have to acknowledge the fact that Kelly had 2 years of pro football with the USFL.