Statistics: Bills Vs. Patriots

[BillsImpossible]

http://www.nfl.com/stats/team

Overall Offense ---

New England has the 21st ranked offense in the NFL after five weeks.

Buffalo is ranked 26th.

Passing Offense ---

Patriots have the 19th ranked passing offense.

Bills have the 21st ranked passing offense.

Rushing Offense ---

Patriots have the 14th ranked rushing offense.

Buffalo is ranked 20th.

Those offensive stats are quite similar, but what strikes me the most is that Tom Brady played all 5 games and EJ Manuel played 4.

I think it's safe to say that the Bills offense would be ranked higher if Orton started the season.

The defensive stats are very interesting. New England has a very good defense.

Overall Defense ---

The Bills are ranked 8th in the league.

The Pats are ranked 4th.

Passing Defense ---

The Bills are ranked 21st against the pass.

New England is ranked 3rd against the pass.

Run Defense ---

Buffalo is ranked 2nd in the league against the run.

New England is ranked 17th against the run.

So in other words, the Bills should run the ball a lot and the Pats should pass the ball a lot on paper.

I honestly don't like the matchup because the Bills have been struggling to run the ball, and Tom Brady is no stranger to throwing 49 times a game.

Who have the Patriots played so far?

Miami (33-20 loss)

Minnesota (30-7 win)

Oakland (16-9 win)

KC (41-14 loss)

Cincinnati (43-17 win)

Who have the Bills played so far?

Chicago (23-20 win)

Miami (29-10 win)

San Diego (22-10 loss)

Houston (23-17 loss)

Detroit (17-14 win)

The Bills have played better teams than the Patriots.

If the Patriots played against the Chargers and Bears in the first 5 weeks, I don't think they would have the 3rd best pass defense.

Orton is the Wild Card factor.

What's your game plan?

[YardRat]

Beat up Brady.

[The Jokeman]

Beat up Brady.

and somehow avoid getting Wilforked.

[Night Train]

What's your game plan?


:beer:

[BillsImpossible]

Beat up Brady.

Flag.

15 yard penalty, automatic first down.

[BillsImpossible]

Who's Corey Graham going to cover?

If Orton is the offensive wild card, Corey Graham is the defensive wild card for the Bills.

Who gets Gronk?

[The Jokeman]

Who's Corey Graham going to cover?

If Orton is the offensive wild card, Corey Graham is the defensive wild card for the Bills.

Who gets Gronk?

Corey might not see much time as he's an outside CB and I see us playing a lot of nickel against the Pats 2 TE sets. I'd like to see Gilmore and A Williams on Gronk, Robey would then draw Edelman in the slot. Leodis on LaFell and D Williams/Searcy on Wright. Yet we could also take D Williams/Searcy out and put Graham at Safety with him drawing Wright which to me a better game plan.

[BillsImpossible]

Corey might not see much time as he's an outside CB and I see us playing a lot of nickel against the Pats 2 TE sets. I'd like to see Gilmore and Williams on Gronk, Robey would then draw Edelman in the slot. Leodis on LaFell and Williams/Searcy on Wright. Yet we could also take Williams/Searcy out and put Graham at Safety with him drawing Wright which to me a better game plan.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but nickel coverage is 4 lineman, 2 linebackers and 5 DBs?

[The Jokeman]

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but nickel coverage is 4 lineman, 2 linebackers and 5 DBs?

Yes. I said D Williams/Searcy as not sure if Searcy will play or not.

[Fletch]

Who gets Gronk?

Great question. There isn't a LB on the roster capable of covering him. DBs are a mismatch. I'm expecting a huge day from him.

Then again, he can be his own worst enemy with injuries. Maybe he'll get hurt early. It's going to happen at some point this season.

[BillsImpossible]

This is a toughy.

Blitz the ever living crap out of Brady?

Schwartz doesn't blitz. Should he against Brady?

If the Bills are planning on going nickel coverage for most of the game, why not dime if the front 4 stuff the run early?

F that. Bring the heat and knock Brady's block off.

[BillsImpossible]

I want to see Marcell Dareus eat Tom Brady alive on the field like a lion tearing a zebra apart on the Discovery Channel.

[The Jokeman]

This is a toughy.

Blitz the ever living crap out of Brady?

Schwartz doesn't blitz. Should he against Brady?

If the Bills are planning on going nickel coverage for most of the game, why not dime if the front 4 stuff the run early?

F that. Bring the heat and knock Brady's block off.

Nickel it so if you want to bring an extra defender to rush Brady up the middle you can. As I'd love nothing more to see Spikes lower the boom on Brady.

[better days]

I think the Bills will be in their regular defense most of the game unless the Bills get a huge lead.

[Fletch]

This is a toughy.

Blitz the ever living crap out of Brady?

Schwartz doesn't blitz. Should he against Brady?

If the Bills are planning on going nickel coverage for most of the game, why not dime if the front 4 stuff the run early?

F that. Bring the heat and knock Brady's block off.

Teams typically don't have much success blitzing the daylights out of Brady unless their coaches are John Harbaugh or Tom Coughlin.

You know this.

My guess is that we'll try to simply put the pressure on using our Front four. I mean NE's O-line is a mess and we have the top DL in the league, right? At least that's what's being preached here.

So there doesn't seem to be much of a need to blitz now, does there.

If you ask me, and if I were Marrone, my first priority would be who's going to be covering Gronk and how are we going to prevent him from having a 150 yard 2 TD day while opening up the entire rest of NE's offense to add another 300 yards like the last time we beat them.

So who's going to cover Gronk? Spikes? Please. Bradham, Rivers, Preston Brown? None are capable. Searcy? Williams? Please.

Marrone needs to figure that out in the next 48 hours or it might be a very long day for us even if we manage to contain Vereen and Ridley running the ball.

[imbondz]

Anyone know the all time win/loss record between us and the patsies?

[Fletch]

I think the Bills will be in their regular defense most of the game unless the Bills get a huge lead.

When's the last game that we had a huge lead early on?

I have the Jets game 11 games ago. This ain't the Jets.

[Fletch]

Anyone know the all time win/loss record between us and the patsies?

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/game_query.cgi?tm1=buf&tm2=nwe&yr=all

Buffalo Bills trails New England Patriots (41-66-1)

[Fletch]

Nickel it so if you want to bring an extra defender to rush Brady up the middle you can. As I'd love nothing more to see Spikes lower the boom on Brady.

First of all, is Spikes even on the field for over half the defensive snaps at this point? He wasn't as of a week or two ago, not even close. So unless he's played most of the snaps, not so.

Secondly, he comes off the field on known passing downs, so how many opportunities do you think he's going to have to hammer Brady?

Thirdly, if we blitz Spikes, don't you think that Brady will take advantage of that?

That leads to this question, which is more likely, the Pats taking advantage of us when Spikes is on the field, or Spikes being a force against Brady?

Which one has the much greater upside in net result?

[better days]

When's the last game that we had a huge lead early on?

I have the Jets game 11 games ago. This ain't the Jets.

I'm not saying the Bills will get a huge lead.

I think it is more likely they play their regular defense most of the game.

And I think Rivers, Brown, Bradham will all get their chance covering Gronk who is not as fast as he used to be.

And I agree with you, I don't think the Bills will blitz much if at all, I think for the most part, they will let the front 4 put the pressure on Brady.

And YES, through the first 5 games, Spikes has had 51% of the snaps.

[chris66]

Bills do have a history of crapping their pants in big games

[Topas]

Common NFL rankings mean nothing. A defense is ranked highly if it never sees the field due to a very potent offense.
Example: the Indy defense was always ranked pretty average during the Manning days (IIRC) but only because it rarely saw the field. The defense sucked often but it could not be seen in the rankings.
DVOA of footballoutsiers is way better. see below.

Buf has the third best defense.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2014/week-5-dvoa-ratings



<tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">

TEAM
TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
TOTAL
DAVE
RANK
W-L
OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK


1
DEN
41.3%
3
34.5%
1
3-1
26.3%
1
-15.6%
2
-0.6%
19


2
SEA
38.5%
2
29.4%
2
3-1
23.8%
2
-12.0%
4
2.6%
9


3
GB
29.3%
6
25.8%
3
3-2
18.1%
5
-6.4%
12
4.7%
5


4
BAL
22.6%
5
15.2%
4
3-2
10.8%
10
-10.2%
5
1.6%
13


5
CIN
19.5%
1
13.3%
6
3-1
14.4%
6
-7.2%
9
-2.1%
22


6
ATL
18.7%
4
12.5%
7
2-3
22.1%
3
12.7%
28
9.3%
2


7
SD
15.7%
12
14.7%
5
4-1
9.0%
11
-5.6%
13
1.0%
17


8
NYG
9.8%
11
6.2%
9
3-2
3.2%
14
-8.8%
7
-2.3%
23


9
DET
9.2%
7
4.5%
13
3-2
-3.9%
20
-22.6%
1
-9.5%
30


10
NE
6.7%
23
8.9%
8
3-2
-5.4%
21
-6.5%
11
5.6%
4


11
PIT
6.5%
15
5.5%
12
3-2
10.9%
9
6.3%
21
1.8%
12


12
DAL
5.8%
13
2.6%
17
4-1
11.1%
8
7.4%
24
2.1%
10


13
PHI
5.6%
9
5.6%
10
4-1
-5.5%
22
-1.0%
16
10.2%
1


14
KC
4.9%
18
2.0%
18
2-3
4.3%
12
1.0%
17
1.6%
14


15
BUF
4.4%
10
2.6%
16
3-2
-17.4%
27
-13.8%
3
8.0%
3

</tbody>

[djjimkelly]

Great question. There isn't a LB on the roster capable of covering him. DBs are a mismatch. I'm expecting a huge day from him.

Then again, he can be his own worst enemy with injuries. Maybe he'll get hurt early. It's going to happen at some point this season.


im expecting a big day from their other TE i forget his name

[M]

They should put Lawson on Gronk but I don't know how that would work since he's consdered a DE now.

[The Jokeman]

First of all, is Spikes even on the field for over half the defensive snaps at this point? He wasn't as of a week or two ago, not even close. So unless he's played most of the snaps, not so.

Secondly, he comes off the field on known passing downs, so how many opportunities do you think he's going to have to hammer Brady?

Thirdly, if we blitz Spikes, don't you think that Brady will take advantage of that?

That leads to this question, which is more likely, the Pats taking advantage of us when Spikes is on the field, or Spikes being a force against Brady?

Which one has the much greater upside in net result?

If we're playing nickel defense as I eluded I'm okay having Spikes and Bradham as our two LBs. As Spikes is solid against the run and Bradham is probably our most complete LB with Alonso on the shelf. In terms of blitzing, it's always about timing but we still need our front four to do some damage and think we could or if we want to get tricky maybe we can do some zone blitzing and get Lawson as a DE on the field and backup in coverage while rushing Spikes. http://www.csnne.com/blog/patriots-talk/friday-bag-patriots-offensive-line-fixed is telling as he eludes that the Patriots O-line has struggled with d-lines that have made it a point to bring pressure and last week I think our D-line brought some serious pressure as think Schwartz knew that Stafford struggles against a heavy rush and hopefully it continues this week.

[YardRat]

I would hide a cover1 shell in a cover2 look, man up on the outside and zone-under with the LBers. Leaves the dump-offs and quick slants/short crossers open to a certain degree, but if they can get any kind of consistent pass rush throughout the game let Brady dink and dunk to Edelman and Ridley, pursue and hit hard. Gotta be careful of wheel route also. Doesn't leave the run game wide open for abuse. Hopefully, eventually, it could lead to a couple of mistakes or tip drill turnovers. Linemen need to get their hands in the air for tips/knockdowns. Don't give any big plays on the outside, and protect the seams.

[sudzy]

What's your game plan?

Over the years, there hasn't been a lot of Bills player that have had success vs the Pats. The one exception is Freddy Jackson. I would give Freddy the ball until his tongue was on the ground. On defense, you have to take Gronk out of the game. The one advantage they "should" have is our DT vs. their interior line. Brady doesn't do well vs interior pressure. Tell Marcell that if he has a game like last week, we'll give him all the pot he can smoke after the game. And I would design a couple blitzes that send Spikes up the middle, I'm sure he'd love to say hi to Tom.