Hey Wys...

[TheGhostofJimKelly]

I have seen it asked a few times and still can't find the answer. If it is somewhere I am sorry for asking again. I understand you have lost faith in Drew due to the play in a half of a season. I want to know if Drew isn't/wasn't the answer, then who should be in there. I am very interested to know who we are missing out on. It doesn't have to be a long, bloated answer to make you sound smarter, just a name or two.

[Novacane]

Travis Brown.................did not you see he played 3 ok quarters against miamis prevent Defense. He's gonna be a super star

[TheGhostofJimKelly]

C'mon, I really want to know. Here is some to choose from:

Last years notable free agents:

Tony Banks, Jeff Blake, Bubby Brister, Chris Chandler, Trent Dilfer, Gus Ferrotte, Kent Graham, Rob Johnson, Paul Justin, Jeff Lewis, Shane Matthews, Jim Miller, Rick Mirer, Rodney Peete, Jon Quinn, Mark Rypien, and Danny Wuerfell.

Last years available rookies:
3 Rohan Davey LSU
4 Josh McCown Sam Houston St.
5 Patrick Ramsey Tulane
6 Kurt Kittner Illinois
7 Brandon Doman BYU
8 Randy Fasani Stanford
9 Major Applewhite Texas
10 Mike Rolovich Hawaii
11 Seth Burford Cal Poly
12 J.T. O'Sullivan Cal-Davis
13 David Garrard East Carolina
14 Greg Zolman Vanderbilt
15 Ronald Curry North Carolina

[Stewie]

ROFLMAO travis brown HAHAHAHAHA.. cant even unseat average van pelt

[LtBillsFan66]

Originally posted by paulB
ROFLMAO travis brown HAHAHAHAHA.. cant even unseat average van pelt

[sarcasm] Apparently, you didn't see the fine touch he put on those two TD passes. [/sarcasm]

[WG]

Re: Hey Wys...

Originally posted by TheGhostofJimKelly
I have seen it asked a few times and still can't find the answer. If it is somewhere I am sorry for asking again. I understand you have lost faith in Drew due to the play in a half of a season. I want to know if Drew isn't/wasn't the answer, then who should be in there. I am very interested to know who we are missing out on. It doesn't have to be a long, bloated answer to make you sound smarter, just a name or two.

How many times do I have to answer this Ghost?

Haven't you read any of my posts on this?

Nevertheless, since you are asking in what seems to be a very inquisitive and sincere inquiry, I'll answer it again for you.

BTW, I've gotten a kick outta the fact that the other thread that I started is already at 4 pages and I only made the initial posts. Too funny... LOL

OK, here it is.

I have never liked Drew. For as long as Drew has been in the league pretty much his entire rep has been based on things such as yardage, attempts, completions, etc., NONE of which actually have to do w/ things that help teams win. Unless of course they have added new rules which give credit for yardage attained.

Big deal you may say. Well, in fact it is! Here's why; Drew's yardage has never been efficient in its yield. I.e., he puts up tons of yards, more than most, but those yards don't always translate to points, which at last check, was what games were won on.

I loved it while Drew was in N.E. and always maintained that "the Pats would never win a SB w/ him there.[/i] Unfortunately, nothing in my opinion of Drew based on the facts has altered itself.

You ask me if I have lost faith in Drew "as a result of his play in half a season?" Well, first of all, it's more than half a season, it's 11 of 16 games or so. He didn't exactly play well v. the Jets being a large factor in the first loss w/ 2 key INTs. He also didn't play well v. the Raiders w/ 2 key INTs being the difference in that game. Would we have definitely won? No, but we had no chance b/c of those three INTs, the only TOs of the game BTW.

The big question is whether the first few games was anomalous, or whether the other 11 games were? Well, I'm going w/ the first bunch. Why? B/c he couldn't even string two decent games together after the Chicago game, and, b/c whether you like it or not or agree w/ it or not, the rest of the season is by far and away much more characteristic of his play throughout the rest of his career.

Drew cannot seem to win games v. the better teams in the league meaning teams over .500 and he sure has a really crappy record v. playoff teams during his career.

I used to wager a Pats buddy of mine for about 4 or 5 seasons, I would select the 4 or 5 toughest games, or those that I felt would be, then I would wager him that Drew could not toss more TDs in those games than INTs. Guess what? I never lost and took ~ $1K from him over those seasons. Keep in mind, the wager was not for "a lot of TDs!" Drew could have pitched only 1 TD in those games, right! It was "for a lack of 'more INTs than TDs'." I never had any doubts about that.

Moreover, if you remember, Drew's first NFL accolades after coming in loaded as a prospect out of Washington, were that he was what? He was "the youngest QB to throw for 10,000 yards." Big deal!! Did that achievement have anything to do with wins, points, or scoring in any way? Not really!

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/BledDr00.htm

In fact, over those 10,000 yards, Drew only put the ball into the endzone passing w/ every 200 yards (199.1 actually) of yardage thrown for! Is that efficient? Is it a good measure of a QB? I'll clue you in that the best QBs put in a TD w/ every 125 - 150! That makes Drew's production approx. 50% worse than most QBs, not even the allstars!

In fact, during his first 10,000 yards, or the first three seasons, he logged 10,556 yards and put up 53 TDs to 58 INTs. That's an average of less than 18 TDs/season to over 19 INTs/season w/ not a single season having more TDs than INTs! And that is something that N.E. fans should have gotten excited over?

Not me! It was always a head scratcher for me in how fans considered yardage to be some sort of milestone that would help their teams win. In fact, in spite of all that, the Pats were 21-27 over that stretch.

Now, let me give you some more info.

Suppose I listed a QB who had the following seasons:

15 TDs/15 INTs
25/27
13/16
20/14
19/21
17/13
2/2

for a total of: 111/108

Would you consider that anything short of average? If you say yes, then don't even bother responding to this thread/post b/c you're not being honest w/ yourself. It's extremely average, perhaps even less than average.

Well, those were Drew's #s for 7 of the 10 seasons that he's played! In fact, what, in only two of those seasons he tossed more TDs than INTs overall, and those years weren't anything special by a long shot.

OK, so your answer will be "But Wys, you're being ridiculous! You can't simply ignore the three best seasons of his career in determing how good a QB he is!"

To which I would agree w/ you! However, the same thing goes both ways, doesn't it! You and others cannot simply ignore the 5 or 6 worst seasons of his career in determining how good he is either! Yet, that's what's done!

As well and in fact also, let's compare Drew's best seasons to the best of some other QBs who had similar talent around them to work with:

Favre: Had 6 seasons in the 30s and his worst season exceeded 4 of Drew's seasons!

Manning: A QB w/ a similar style to Drew's has had better production in each of his five seasons than all but 2 of Drew's seasons!

Kerry Collins, a QB that most of you guys would rage if I compared to Drew, after a stint at Carolina as a starter where he didn't have half of what Drew's had in talent around him, in NY he's posted numbers very similar, yet more efficient than what Drew has posted over the years. Yet, he hasn't thrown all the key Picks that Drew has!

There are more, many more. Someone compared him to Marino the other day which is laughable! Marino posted 6 seasons better than Drew's best season, posted 4 30+ seasons, and had a much higher TD/INT ratio than Drew has and never, ever even had anything resembling Curtis Martin to draw some heat!

Now, let's talk about this past season.

Last season, w/ a very, very good and improving weekly OL, and one that only lost 3 games to injury to our Ts where Price filled in almost seemlessly, and where Henry, one of the league's top RBs emerged and had over 1,400 yards in spite of being underutilized, Drew managed to put up only 24 TDs and had 15 INTs.

You're gonna jump on that, but here's my problem w/ that; All 15 of those INTs were in the games that I'm telling you Drew can't win, games against superior Ds and teams that make the playoffs and are above .500! Unfortunately, those are the types of games we'll have to win to make the playoffs, win the division, win the AFC, and eventually win the SB if that's gonna happen.

While I might concede that Drew could possibly play a single good game in the playoffs, which would be a first in and of itself, but to think that he can win a divisional game by playing well, then play well (i.e. w/o making the types of errors that lose games) in a conference game, then play well in the SB, is baseless. He's so horrible from both performance and record standpoints in games of exactly that nature, that the odds are so incredibly high that that could happen.

Now, here's another issue that I have. With all that talent just mentioned, including JR whom Drew apparently decided not to use, presumably in favor of more of a deep game, he only managed to put up 24 TDs, and 14 of those in only a handful of games v. teams w/ passing Ds ranked 18th or below.

For contrast and comparison, here are some other QBs who tossed 24 or more TDs. Consider what they had for WRs, RBs, and OLs.

Brady put up 28! With what? Brown, Patten, Fauria, and Smith?

Manning put up 27 again, and with two RBs neither of which was special and only 1 proven WR to toss to.

Favre put up 27 also, with what? Driver, an emerging WR and an injured Green? He did so much more w/ so much less that it makes a comparison laughable.

Brooks, whom I've maintained is better than Drew for a while, put up 27 also! W/ what, Horn and McAllister in support? McA is good, but not better than Henry was!

Gannon put up 26 TDs w/ no traditional true RB.

Green put up 26 w/ no WRs to speak of!

McNair put up 22 w/ NO decent WRs, a washed up TE, and a RB plagued w/ injuries!

Pennington put up 22 in only 13 games as a first time starter! Quite a bit better than any of Drew's first 3 seasons!

B. Johnson, on a team not particularly prone to throwing, also put up two less and 22 w/ nowhere near the talent at WR and RB that Drew had. He only played 13 games too!

Maddux put up 20 in only 12 games with no great RB, a rookie WR, and Ward, not better than Moulds for sure.

Then there was a slew of QBs who put up in the high teens. Granted, they were 4 or 5 off of Drew's pace, but notice this too; they didn't toss up 15 INTs in the most important games while playing well only against scrub teams w/ no pass Ds.

Go verify that for yourself, don't believe me, although I just reviewed it.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/qbindex.htm

Now, I'll leave you w/ this question, which really answers the one that people keep asking me; namely, ...

"Which QBs do I think are better" and then relatedly, "what would some of our other options be/have been?"

To that, I say this;

How would all of those other QBs mentioned have performed w/ a green light and full autonomy pretty much from their OCs, and with our OL, Henry as the RB, and Moulds, Price, Reed, JR, and Centers??!!

I dare say that there wasn't a better collection of offensive skill position players on a team in the NFL than here!

I still say we're at the top this year, #1, in terms of OL/RB/WR as a trio. If you think there's a better combo of the three, I'd certainly like to know which team has it!

How would Kerry Collins have performed last season on this team w/ all that talent around him?

Or Brad Johnson?

Or Plummer, or Brunnell, or Brees, or Kitna, or Culpepper, or Garcia, or McNabb, etc.

I think that probably 20-25 of the starting QBs in this league could have launched a paltry total of only 24 TDs, or even more, with the team that we had last season and the fortunes we had injury wise!

To think that any even remotely qualified NFL QB couldn't put up 24 TDs w/ the talent we had and given the way the team was managed w/ a overpropensity to throw the ball, is ridiculous! In fact, I also think that most of those same QBs would have thrown 24 TDs w/ far fewer yards too!

And again, as yet another reminder, I don't think that one of all those 25 QBs threw 15, or even close, INTs in 7 games v. their best opponents.

So, there you have it, probably as best as I've every summed it up. Actually, I'm gonna C&P this for future use.

Anyway, there you have it. Peruse it, consider it, and then when we head into this season, remember what's in it, b/c I will guarantee you right here and now, that questions over Drew's play are gonna continue just as they have in many fans minds.

The perceptions will begin to end this season as a larger dose of reality begins to kick in.

Along w/ Jake Plummer, another collegiately heralded QB, Drew and he are the two most overrated QBs in the game today.

And as a bonus for asking this question in a very well thought out and reasoned manner, I will tell you which QBs I think are better than Drew, many of which simply haven't been given the smae chances w/ the same talent, among which you will find one or two that was available last season;

Favre
Vick
McNabb
Garcia
Manning
Brady
Pennington
Fiedler
McNair
Brunnell (although I think he is/was somewhat overrated as well)
Maddux
Blake
Gannon
Griese
Green
Collins
Culpepper
Chandler
B. Johnson
Brooks
Warner
Bulger

That's 22 QBs, a couple of backups, that I think would perform better on this team. Keep in mind, that performing better includes a minimization of critical errors.

Also, "playing better" does not necessarily mean a greater fantasy value either. Often better position players have a lower fantasy value due to their situations. Some examples are/were:

Dave Moore
KJ
Henry who wasn't used nearly as much as he should have been, although a great FV player nonetheless
McNabb
Collins
Dillon
there're others as well. I'm sure you get the point.

Anyway, I hope that helps. Consider it!

[TheGhostofJimKelly]

That is very well written and drawn out but it doesn't answer my question. Which option was better for this team last year? All you have to do is put down names, nothing more. I hope for reputation sake you aren't saying Jeff Blake because he has been on teams with similar talent.

[WG]

Originally posted by TheGhostofJimKelly
C'mon, I really want to know. Here is some to choose from:

Last years notable free agents:

Tony Banks, Jeff Blake, Bubby Brister, Chris Chandler, Trent Dilfer, Gus Ferrotte, Kent Graham, Rob Johnson, Paul Justin, Jeff Lewis, Shane Matthews, Jim Miller, Rick Mirer, Rodney Peete, Jon Quinn, Mark Rypien, and Danny Wuerfell.

Last years available rookies:
3 Rohan Davey LSU
4 Josh McCown Sam Houston St.
5 Patrick Ramsey Tulane
6 Kurt Kittner Illinois
7 Brandon Doman BYU
8 Randy Fasani Stanford
9 Major Applewhite Texas
10 Mike Rolovich Hawaii
11 Seth Burford Cal Poly
12 J.T. O'Sullivan Cal-Davis
13 David Garrard East Carolina
14 Greg Zolman Vanderbilt
15 Ronald Curry North Carolina

I think Brown, if given the opportunity this season, will be better than Drew is hands down. If that happens, many will dismiss it as "teams not knowing how to defend" or luck, even tho that former excuse didn't seem to apply to Drew last year although that's why I think he experienced success early on and then faded into oblivion after a handful of games.

As to your question, instead of Drew, I would have kept our pick, and gone w/ Blake first, then Dilfer, whom I said we should have picked up for nearly nothin' prior to the '01 season, and then Chandler, who's not reliable from an injury perspective and only would have been good for a season, possibly two.

You'll poo-poo those choices, but consider this; Blake's got better "game average" career numbers than Drew.

As well, he played only 10 games last season, was 5-5, and did it all w/ this talent:

Lewis v. Henry
a comparable, at best, OL
Taylor and Stokley v. Moulds, Price, Reed
Heap v. JR and Moore

So I don't think it's a stretch at all to think he could have done more here than Drew did.

Blake had 1.3 TDs/game w/ that motley crew! To think it would have diminished had he played here is to deny reality.

He did have 11 INTs, or 1.1/game, BUT, Drew had 15, or just about 1/game, w/ the exception that all 15 of Drew's were v. the the toughest teams on our schedule. Drew tossed 5 games (31%) of 2 or more INTs and added 4 lost fumbles as well. Blake tossed 3 games (30%) of 2 or more INTs. Drew threw 3 games w/ 2 INTs, 1 w/ 3, and 1 w/ 4. Blake threw 2 games w/ 2 INTs and 1 game w/ 3, none w/ 4.

In those games, Drew was 0-5 in those games, Blake was 0-3.

I cannot imagine for the life of me, that Blake could not have duplicated or beaten his career best of 28/17 in Cincy last year on this team. He is also incredibly more mobile than Drew.

Now don't get me wrong, before we signed Drew, I felt we should try Brown, rather get Chandler for only one season, and then pickup a QB in this season's draft. So you may find quotes about me not wanting Blake in Buffalo.

But when push came to shove and it was rumored that Bledsoe was coming here, I was begging for Blake, for several reasons.

First, he would have come at about a fifth of the price and he would have saved us our precious draft pick this season. We could have had two first rounders, perhaps then the McGahee pick wouldn't have been so questionable among so many fans and the pick would have allowed us to get McDougle, Fain, or Calvin Pace which would have been huge and filled immediate needs!

Also, having Blake wouldn't have prevented us from actively giving other QBs some reps to see what they could do. Many Bills fans will tell you Brown is not up to starting, but they don't know! WTH are they basing that on since he's hardly played. I don't know if he'll work out either, but he did show some things that were extremely unusual for a first time starter and rookie in the limited reps he got in the Miami game two seasons ago. I simply think that's worth pursuing. But having Bledsoe here precludes any of that.

I also understand that at times decisions must be made w/ fan perceptions in mind, such as the perceptions over Drew. But at some point, decisions have to be tempered in reality as well. The reality of the situation here in Buffalo now, is that Drew totally underachieved w/ the "toolbox" handed to him last season, especially considering that he had every green light from fellow co-conspirator Kevin Gilbride, our fearless leader on offense. Total dope too, but that's another story!

So, when you slice it like that, given the following two options:

A. Trade away a first round selection for Bledsoe, pay ~ $5.5M/yr. to him, and get what I consider for the reasons stated in this thread, a grossly overrated QB who's shown absolutely no proclivity to beat good teams;

OR

B. Keep our first round pick w/ which we would have been able to draft Jerome McDougle and push our DL from well below average to top 3 immediately, and save $4M or so per year, as well, likely also resulting in better use of Henry,

I don't think there's much of a choice. In hindsight as well as foresight I would have chosen option B w/o even giving it much thought.

Again, while Drew was in N.E., I realized that the Pats would never win a SB w/ him there. Nothing's changed, so simply b/c I'm a Bills fan does not alter my opinion of Drew. I hope, but my hope is tempered w/ a very cold dose of reality, and that reality played itself out again last season.

Expect more of the same this season. I just hope that this FO figures all this out before it's too late, and that we don't sign/pick up the extension for Drew beyond '04.

Ticket sales aren't going to increase any more as a result of Drew. They are only going to increase w/ winning now. Drew helped fill the seats last season, but now it's time to focus on winning, and no player should be bigger than the Bills like Drew currently is. The team and its interests and desires to win should be paramount. Which is also why I thought we should have drafted William Joseph instead of McGahee. WJ is a given in terms of his being able to contribute. McGahee is an enormous questionmark.

Anyhoo...

[LtBillsFan66]

Travis Brown!? That's almost as absurd as Nick Rolovic.

[WG]

Sorry Ghost, I was in the process of writing all that while you posted that. Not trying to ignore you...

BTW, I appreciate your level-headed approach to discussing this!!!

It's a far cry from what I usually get. As I said, I'm a Bills fan first, not simply a Rah-Rah cheerleader and FO yes man!

If I believe there are situations/players/coaches/perceptions that are detrimental to the team, whether I like it or not, I'll point those out and try to shed some light, particularly in areas where the media is driving falty perceptions, and in particular, ones that are harmful to the team whether or not they popular.

[WG]

Originally posted by billsfanone
Travis Brown!? That's almost as absurd as Nick Rolovic.

Naturally BFO!!!

Enter the "riff-raff" element....

Thus the appreciation Ghost!!!

[BillsMan80]

Except BF1 has a legit point. What in the hell has Travis Brown ever proven? NOTHING. Travis Brown can't even beat out AVP for the starting job. Real keeper there. Future Pro Bowler in waiting. And Wys, you are hiding information from people by just looking at the stats. It goes beyond the stats. Like in the fact that Drew had average to below average casts of players surrounding him in his New England days. The only QBs I would take over Drew are:

McNair
Manning
Gannon
McNabb
Favre
Garcia
Vick

[Dozerdog]

Originally posted by Wys Guy


I think Brown, if given the opportunity this season, will be better than Drew is hands down. If that happens, many will dismiss it as "teams not knowing how to defend" or luck, even tho that former excuse didn't seem to apply to Drew last year although that's why I think he experienced success early on and then faded into oblivion after a handful of games.

As to your question, instead of Drew, I would have kept our pick, and gone w/ Blake first, then Dilfer, whom I said we should have picked up for nearly nothin' prior to the '01 season, and then Chandler, who's not reliable from an injury perspective and only would have been good for a season, possibly two.

That's why Holmgren dumped his ass- and went with Dilfer. Because he's better than Drew., and gave up a #1 for GB's Matt Hasselback.


Wys- for the zillionth time- with that plan you put forth, the Bills would be a 4-12 team last season, going into this year with a rookie QB.

Guys like Spikes, Posey , Sam Adams would then avoid this team like the plague, no matter what money we toss at them. They are in it for the wins, they already collected their checks.

We got a pro bowl QB - and the kicker is the Pats paid for half of his cap hit.....($7 Million last season in bonus) what a bargain he was.

[Dozerdog]

Consider this- we gave up the #14 in a very weak draft for Drew - and basically got him for an extra season.

Seattle gave up the #17 for Matt Hasselback in a strong (2001) draft.

It was a bargain!

[JefftheBillsfan]

man, youve taken this to far wys. travis brown is not better than drew bledsoe.