I'm afraid all signs are pointing to a 8-8 Bills team

[ghz in pittsburgh]

7 games in, we see more or less what this team is.

They have a good defense, maybe very good, but certainly not a dominating defense.

The offense struggles to score 20 points on its own. And that's a kind statement.

In the short teerm, they need to fix the turnover porblem asap. I think bigger changes may come after the bye. Next week at Jets, if they continue to turn the ball over at the clip since Orton started the last 3 games, they stand no chance. I think the biggest part is on Orton. He's averaging an INT and a fumble a game. THAT cannot continue!!!!

Longer term this season, you need someone to step up to have a career year and I don't believe it will be rookies like Watkins. I still think the most likely source is the offensive running game. Orton is not Brady. Without a meaningful running game, I don't see the Bills team going anywhere.

[black N yellow]

8-8 would be an improvement at least.

[Night Train]

Yesterdays "win" felt like a loss... but I'm hopeful for an intervention during the Bye week. :shutup:

[trapezeus]

after the watkins trade, all i wanted was to not hand over a top 10 pick to cleveland. if 8-8 does that, then we dodged a huge bullet.

normally i hate the mid level finish, but they've put us in a situation where we can't hand over a high pick.

i just don't like our chances of getting better the following year based on the lack of QB of the future, continued weakness in the OL, and help needed in the secondary.

[Thundering Buffalo]

Houston loss will haunt us...unfortunately

[better days]

Well, in preseason, some IDIOTS were saying this was a 3-4 win team.

This team should win 8 games minimum & Hackett at the least needs to be fired if the Bills fail to win at least 9 games this year.

[streetkings01]

after the watkins trade, all i wanted was to not hand over a top 10 pick to cleveland. if 8-8 does that, then we dodged a huge bullet.

normally i hate the mid level finish, but they've put us in a situation where we can't hand over a high pick.

i just don't like our chances of getting better the following year based on the lack of QB of the future, continued weakness in the OL, and help needed in the secondary.
Yea becaue free agency , draft and experience cant fix the oline and secondary in one season. This is the NFL.........year to year teams get better or worse , this is a young team that has a chance to get better. Look at the Cowboys , they were left for dead this offseason and now their currently a top 2 team in the NFL.

[Meathead]

you never know when a team will gel. i know we have had mediocre so long that it feels inevitable but its not. this team appears to be a decent oline away from being consistently above average and with all the new guys up front they could come together at any time

pretty much every playoff team has games they shoulda won that they lost and vice versa. the bills already have a couple surprise wins, one bad loss, and the obligatory ugly ass win. probably gonna have to beat either the pack at the ralph or the cheaters in cheatertown to make the playoffs

im sticking with ten wins. if i keep saying it every season one of these decades i will be right

[Historian]

7-9

It gives me that warm Jauron feeling to say it.

[Fletch]

7 games in, we see more or less what this team is.

They have a good defense, maybe very good, but certainly not a dominating defense.

The offense struggles to score 20 points on its own. And that's a kind statement.

Funny that you mention those things. Orton's a much better passer but we're averaging fewer points with him in there (18.7) than we were with Manuel. (19.75)

What happened to our "elite" defense? Now all of a sudden it's very good but not dominating. If it's not dominating I don't see how it can possibly be elite.

What happened to our rushing defense in particular?

Yesterday we played a team featuring a starting RB who was a rookie 3rd-round draft pick from Georgia Southern and he had a fantastic day averaging 5.4 ypc. The Vikes put up 158 rushing on us overall. How is that even possible against an average D?

Bridgewater was allowed to throw his first NFL TD ever.

I hardly call that defense very good. If that had been any of the remaining teams on our schedule they'd have all easily scored well over 20 points yesterday and the game was at home.

As to the offense, if they can't start putting up more than 17 points we'll win one, maybe two more games given the opponents. The Jets may suck but they've put up at least 17 points in all but one game. Cleveland has put up 21 in five of six and 26 or more in four of five. Miami's last three have all been over 24. Oakland's the only team that hasn't put up 17 -20 regularly.

I see difficulties ahead. There isn't a gimme game on the schedule over the next 7 and until we play Oakland in Oakland where our history is poor.

I'm still seeing a 6-10 or 7-9 team here tops.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

This Vikings game highlighted what a running game game can do for your offense. Imagine if someone can run the ball McKinnon did for the Bills, how much it would help Orton and the O-Line?

Norv Turner saw something in Bills D and he stuck with it. And I still don't think Kyle is himself quite yet - you don't see then knifing into the backfield quite as much for disruption, giving Mckinnon time to bouce outside where Hughes lost contain several times. Expect that to continue for the Jets game.

Also for the 2nd game in a row, the Bills got out coached on both sides. Schwartz didn't quite believe the Vikings can run the ball/stick to to running the ball. He called more stunts on D line which confused the rookie QB and resulted some sacks. But the Vikings had lead for 59:59 minutes of the game which allowed them able to stick to the run game. It is the worst thing to do stunts while the other team is running the ball -- eactly the kind of delimma the Bills offense is in (can't run the ball, which affords the opposing defenses to throw all kinds of stunts and blitz packages at our inexperienced O-line).

[Fletch]

And I still don't think Kyle is himself quite yet - you don't see then knifing into the backfield quite as much for disruption, giving Mckinnon time to bouce outside where Hughes lost contain several times. Expect that to continue for the Jets game.

Also for the 2nd game in a row, the Bills got out coached on both sides.

Well Kyle had better find himself pretty soon. Right now all he does is what Bledsoe did, lots of yards in the open field but ****s himself in the red zone and can't punch it into the end zone. 10 points against that sorry D for 59+ minutes and coming down to the last play to win.

The D is and has been overrated. They've benefitted from other teams offenses being far less than full strength. It's going to be exposed here soon as anything but an elite D. We just don't have the talent on D. And yet one more game where the DL just didn't perform adding to my insistance that it's far from elite because it's far from consistent. Five sacks on Bridgewater, great, but 158 rushing yards against on 5.4 ypc? Inexcusable for any good D much less an elite one. It kept Minny in the game.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Funny that you mention those things. Orton's a much better passer but we're averaging fewer points with him in there (18.7) than we were with Manuel. (19.75)

You keep posting this without any context. For one thing, we're dealing with a small sample, which skews those numbers. If you take away CJ Spiller's 102 yard KR (which you should as Manuel had nothing to do with it), Manuel's PPG drops to 18.

The bigger issue has been turnovers. Manuel couldn't move the offense, but he is also better about coughing it up than Orton. Some of that has been athleticism, Manuel has escaped some sure sacks where Orton would have turtled, but others are just bad fumbles and bad bounces. Forcing fumbles and securing the ball are skills, but recovering fumbles is generally luck. We've been on the bad side of that coin, losing 7 of 11 fumbles so far.


What happened to our "elite" defense? Now all of a sudden it's very good but not dominating. If it's not dominating I don't see how it can possibly be elite.

What happened to our rushing defense in particular?

Yesterday we played a team featuring a starting RB who was a rookie 3rd-round draft pick from Georgia Southern and he had a fantastic day averaging 5.4 ypc. The Vikes put up 158 rushing on us overall. How is that even possible against an average D?

I'll agree that it's not "elite" but does anyone in the league have an "elite" defense at the moment? Seattle gave up 162 rushing yards at home last week. Cincy got completely wrecked by Trent Richardson, one of the worst HB busts of the decade. San Francisco got pounded on SNF. It happens.

Meanwhile, our offense coughed up the ball four times and the defense only allowed 9 points off of them. The Vikings' longest scoring drive started on their own 40. With the game on the line and 1st and goal from the 7, the D got two sacks and forced a field goal, which left Orton the chance to win it.

This defense isn't the 85 bears team, but it is clearly a playoff caliber unit.


I see difficulties ahead. There isn't a gimme game on the schedule over the next 7 and until we play Oakland in Oakland where our history is poor.

True, but for the first time in many years, WE aren't a gimme game on everyone else's schedule.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Well Kyle had better find himself pretty soon.

Sorry I mean Kyle Williams. Not our QN.

[Forward_Lateral]

Well Kyle had better find himself pretty soon. Right now all he does is what Bledsoe did, lots of yards in the open field but ****s himself in the red zone and can't punch it into the end zone. 10 points against that sorry D for 59+ minutes and coming down to the last play to win.

The D is and has been overrated. They've benefitted from other teams offenses being far less than full strength. It's going to be exposed here soon as anything but an elite D. We just don't have the talent on D. And yet one more game where the DL just didn't perform adding to my insistance that it's far from elite because it's far from consistent. Five sacks on Bridgewater, great, but 158 rushing yards against on 5.4 ypc? Inexcusable for any good D much less an elite one. It kept Minny in the game.

You do realize that that "sorry" D is top 10 vs the pass, and in the top half of the league overall, right?

[Fletch]

Funny that you mention those things. Orton's a much better passer but we're averaging fewer points with him in there (18.7) than we were with Manuel. (19.75)


You keep posting this without any context.

Context? Are you serious? I have in fact posted some context about the quality of Ds that we've faced, among which are NE and Minnesota, both below average.

I've also said, repeatedly, as in "keep posting this" that I don't understand why. But it's relevant whether we understand it or not, wouldn't you say?

17, 22, and 17 points scored aren't typically going to result in 2-1 as it has over the last three weeks, wouldn't you agree? Good thing we've played Minnesota and Detroit with almost all of their offensive skill position players out, wouldn't you say? If that had been most other teams there's a great chance we'd have been 0-3 during that stretch.

All I'm saying is that whatever the reason, they'd better get that figured out this week or we'll lose a whole bunch of games coming up.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Context? Are you serious? I have in fact posted some context about the quality of Ds that we've faced, among which are NE and Minnesota, both below average.

I've also said, repeatedly, as in "keep posting this" that I don't understand why. But it's relevant whether we understand it or not, wouldn't you say?

17, 22, and 17 points scored aren't typically going to result in 2-1 as it has over the last three weeks, wouldn't you agree? Good thing we've played Minnesota and Detroit with almost all of their offensive skill position players out, wouldn't you say? If that had been most other teams there's a great chance we'd have been 0-3 during that stretch.

All I'm saying is that whatever the reason, they'd better get that figured out this week or we'll lose a whole bunch of games coming up.

I told you the why. You included a special teams TD in Manuel's offensive output, which made his average seem higher than Orton's, and our turnover differential has flipped.

And no, 17, 22, and 17 points are not sustainable win totals, but the fact that we did win two anyway (despite going -4 in TOs) shows the quality of our defense.

[Fletch]

You do realize that that "sorry" D is top 10 vs the pass, and in the top half of the league overall, right?

26th in completion % against
19th in ypg against
20th in ypa against
Tied 6-ways for 21st in passing TDs allowed and once again on pace for one of our worst seasons ever as a franchise in passing TDs allowed.
17th in QB Rating against

3rd in INTs
1st in sacks

Once again, this season appears to be a referendum on the fact that there's something more to good defense than sacks and INTs. Half our our 8 team INTs have come against Bridgewater and Fitzpatrick. 4 in the other 5 games. Impressive?

It also appears to be a referendum that just because your tops in rushing D, despite the fact that we seem to be falling quickly in that way, doesn't mean that your overall D is good. Our D has been good because we've played a whole lot of second-rate talent on opposing offenses, mostly due to injury lists.

I don't expect too many here to pick up on that or realize how relevant that is, but it is relevant.

[HHURRICANE]

7 games in, we see more or less what this team is.

They have a good defense, maybe very good, but certainly not a dominating defense.

The offense struggles to score 20 points on its own. And that's a kind statement.

In the short teerm, they need to fix the turnover porblem asap. I think bigger changes may come after the bye. Next week at Jets, if they continue to turn the ball over at the clip since Orton started the last 3 games, they stand no chance. I think the biggest part is on Orton. He's averaging an INT and a fumble a game. THAT cannot continue!!!!

Longer term this season, you need someone to step up to have a career year and I don't believe it will be rookies like Watkins. I still think the most likely source is the offensive running game. Orton is not Brady. Without a meaningful running game, I don't see the Bills team going anywhere.

I agree, and just posted a thread with similar expectations. However, I think our schedule alone is the reason we aren't going anywhere at this point.

[Fletch]

I told you the why. You included a special teams TD in Manuel's offensive output, which made his average seem higher than Orton's, and our turnover differential has flipped.

And no, 17, 22, and 17 points are not sustainable win totals, but the fact that we did win two anyway (despite going -4 in TOs) shows the quality of our defense.

Funny you cite that, because when the shoe's on the other foot that special teams TD seems to factor right in.

Either way, take it away. We're still averaging only a half-point per game better with Orton. Does that strike you as being significant?

Again, explain the very significant increase in passing yards and somewhat significant increase in overall yards but the lack of accompanying scoring?

I can't, I'm at a loss.

I do see a string of losses ahead of us though.

[better days]

Funny that you mention those things. Orton's a much better passer but we're averaging fewer points with him in there (18.7) than we were with Manuel. (19.75)

What happened to our "elite" defense? Now all of a sudden it's very good but not dominating. If it's not dominating I don't see how it can possibly be elite.

What happened to our rushing defense in particular?

Yesterday we played a team featuring a starting RB who was a rookie 3rd-round draft pick from Georgia Southern and he had a fantastic day averaging 5.4 ypc. The Vikes put up 158 rushing on us overall. How is that even possible against an average D?

Bridgewater was allowed to throw his first NFL TD ever.

I hardly call that defense very good. If that had been any of the remaining teams on our schedule they'd have all easily scored well over 20 points yesterday and the game was at home.

As to the offense, if they can't start putting up more than 17 points we'll win one, maybe two more games given the opponents. The Jets may suck but they've put up at least 17 points in all but one game. Cleveland has put up 21 in five of six and 26 or more in four of five. Miami's last three have all been over 24. Oakland's the only team that hasn't put up 17 -20 regularly.

I see difficulties ahead. There isn't a gimme game on the schedule over the next 7 and until we play Oakland in Oakland where our history is poor.

I'm still seeing a 6-10 or 7-9 team here tops.

There have been injuries on Defense.

That is how a team goes from being ELITE to GOOD.

And while the Vikings are not the Packers, the Bills held them to 16 points yesterday..........pretty damn good.

And the Defense would have held them to fewer points than that if the offense did not put them in bad position so often.

This should have been an EASY win if the Offense did not suck so much in this game.

[Fletch]

There have been injuries on Defense.

That is how a team goes from being ELITE to GOOD.

And while the Vikings are not the Packers, the Bills held them to 16 points yesterday..........pretty damn good.

And the Defense would have held them to fewer points than that if the offense did not put them in bad position so often.

This should have been an EASY win if the Offense did not suck so much in this game.

Up til yesterday we've had fewer injuries than just about every team in the league. There's no playing the injury card this season.

There's also no playing the "we lost x-number of games by 3 points or less" card either. We've now won three of our four wins by 3 points or less, once in OT.

Losing Spiller is a wash. He's a role player and won't be missed if Brown is half of what you and others have insisted that he is. Jackson, as much as most of us love the guy, is finished in Buffalo. He may stick around but he won't be a significant difference any longer. Age has now caught up to him.

This team had better find a RB that can play on 3rd-downs very quickly.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Funny you cite that, because when the shoe's on the other foot that special teams TD seems to factor right in.

?


Either way, take it away. We're still averaging only a half-point per game better with Orton. Does that strike you as being significant?

I knew this was coming.

"The offense regressed with Orton"
"No, it didn't, if you remove a score the offense wasn't involved in."
"Well, the offense didn't improve enough."


Again, explain the very significant increase in passing yards and somewhat significant increase in overall yards but the lack of accompanying scoring?

I can't, I'm at a loss.

I've already told you twice, so here's a third time: Turnovers.

Orton has been better at moving the football then Manuel but worse at protecting it. Just yesterday we had drives of 42 and 50 yards than ended in fumbles in scoring position. If we recover those balls and just kick field goals, the game looks a lot different.

[notacon]

:rofl: 8-8???

I bet that we will end up 5-11...6-10 at the very best.

[better days]

Up til yesterday we've had fewer injuries than just about every team in the league. There's no playing the injury card this season.

There's also no playing the "we lost x-number of games by 3 points or less" card either. We've now won three of our four wins by 3 points or less, once in OT.

Losing Spiller is a wash. He's a role player and won't be missed if Brown is half of what you and others have insisted that he is. Jackson, as much as most of us love the guy, is finished in Buffalo. He may stick around but he won't be a significant difference any longer. Age has now caught up to him.

This team had better find a RB that can play on 3rd-downs very quickly.

All teams have injuries, but we lost Kiko before the season started.

Aaron Williams is a huge loss to injury & even if playing is not 100%. McKelvin was also injured against the Vikings.

You want to know how a Defense goes from Elite to Good, that is how. INJURIES.