Nate Silver: Week 8 Predictions

[trapezeus]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/nfl-week-8-elo-ratings-and-playoff-odds/

He the bills odds of winning the division at 10% and making the playoffs at 20%.

The model picks the bills to win 51% of the time in the simulations over the jets and winning by 1pt.

The model vs the point spread YTD was 49-50-3 while the straight up winner is 74-31-1. I think that's fairly impressive.

[MidnightVoice]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000415690/article/around-the-nfls-power-picks-week-8

NFL has 4 picks for the Jets, 1 for us.


http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

ESPN has 8 jets, 5 bills

So I make the odds 2 to 1 against :D

[Jry44]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000415690/article/around-the-nfls-power-picks-week-8

NFL has 4 picks for the Jets, 1 for us.


http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

ESPN has 8 jets, 5 bills

So I make the odds 2 to 1 against :D

And they were 100% for the Lions and Bears, or very close to it. These guys are no better at making picks than we are.

[justasportsfan]

Bills will beat Sexy Rexy who will be fired on Monday but be our next DC once Schwartz leaves for a HC job next year. :D

[IlluminatusUIUC]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/nfl-week-8-elo-ratings-and-playoff-odds/

He the bills odds of winning the division at 10% and making the playoffs at 20%.

The model picks the bills to win 51% of the time in the simulations over the jets and winning by 1pt.

The model vs the point spread YTD was 49-50-3 while the straight up winner is 74-31-1. I think that's fairly impressive.

A 51% chance of winning with a 1 point prediction? That might be the closest thing to a coin flip his system can produce.

[trapezeus]

A 51% chance of winning with a 1 point prediction? That might be the closest thing to a coin flip his system can produce.

yeah...i like using his model to confirm my gut feeling on a game. and where i differ, i start looking into stats to see what i think is a big driver.

his model is pretty intriguing though because it takes a teams historic period into account. so an .500 team that's been to the playoffs a few times gets a lot more credit than a hot team above .500 but been on the outside looking in for the last few years.

it makes sense in the grand scheme of things but it misses a little of the momentum.

his model had seattle as one of the most sure bet games last week and i thought so as well. i picked them for my pickem pool and am now out. thanks a lot nate silver!

[Don't Panic]

Pickcenter has it at 22-18 and 22-20, both Jets...

http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/pickcenter/nfl/game?gameid=400554298&lang=EN

I like the Bills getting 3 in this game. Of course, I'd like 3.5 a lot more!

[Fletch]

PFT says this;

Bills at Jets
MDS’s take: I’ve felt all year that the Jets are a better team than they’re showing on the field, and I think we’re finally going to see them turn in a complete game on Sunday. The Bills’ offense will struggle with the Jets’ defense and the Jets will win a low-scoring game.


MDS’s pick: Jets 17, Bills 13.


Florio’s take: The Jets surely won’t finish 1-15. What better way to get a win than against a Bills team that is rattled at the tailback position and generally not a good as its 4-3 record suggests? While Percy Harvin (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5197/percy-harvin) isn’t good enough to turn around a lost season in New York, he’s good enough to make a difference in this one.


Florio’s pick: Jets 24, Bills 20.

I don't see Orton having a good game in this one nor do I see our rushing game posting better than an average performance.

The question is whether our "elite D" and formerly #1 (now #5) rushing D can stop the Jets four-headed rushing attack which just got harder with the addition of Harvin.

The potential exists for a Jets blowout if we struggle to score again.

[trapezeus]

you aren't going to like that the jets 4 headed running attack has typically stopped itself. morningweg will call off the dogs and go to his overly complicated offense for no reason.

i think the jets are much better than they seem to be. but the jet fans i work with all say the same thing, "if geno has time to throw, he'll eat the bills secondary alive. if he's under any pressure, it's going to be ugly."

we've split these games the last couple years, i don't expect any different.

this typically is the game that a harvin player has just a spectacular game making the talking heads wonder how such a trade can occur and 4 weeks later we never hear from harvin again.

bills win this one, playoff watch is very much alive. lose this one and you can pack it up. 6-8 wins will be the cap.

[better days]

If the Bills win this game, they will have reached the half way point of the season with a winning record.

When is the last time that happened?

[Historian]

I'm thinking 33-30 Jets.

[better days]

I'm thinking 33-30 Jets.

Seriously? You think the Jets are going to hang 33 points on the Bills?

The Jets may win this game, but I would bet the under on your numbers.

[DynaPaul]

Does the statistical model take biased refereeing into account? For instance, Walt Coleman officiating a Patriots game should automatically add 7 points to their score by default.

[Historian]

I do.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

If the Bills win this game, they will have reached the half way point of the season with a winning record.

When is the last time that happened?

2011

[trapezeus]

Does the statistical model take biased refereeing into account? For instance, Walt Coleman officiating a Patriots game should automatically add 7 points to their score by default.

probably because it's looking at historical results. so a 4-4 patriot team will be ranked significantly higher than say a 6-2 bills team because we don't get to the playoffs and they do. in there is the beauty of the pats gifted penalties. i'm hoping that having a rich owner will get the NFL to take care of us like they have the pats.

[BillsOverDolphins]

Bills will beat Sexy Rexy who will be fired on Monday but be our next DC once Schwartz leaves for a HC job next year. :D

Schwartz ain't getting another HC job anytime soon

[swiper]

Mike Rodak: The Bills have never won at MetLife Stadium, losing each year there since that facility opened in 2010. The Jets haven't done too much well this season, but they have gotten to the opposing quarterback. Their 20 sacks are tied for sixth in the NFL. Meanwhile, Kyle Orton has been sacked 11 times over the past two weeks. Pass protection has been a problem for the Bills, and their deficiencies catch up to them in the Meadowlands. Jets 17, Bills 13

Rich Cimini: The Jets have lost six straight, including four games by one score (eight points) or less -- the most such losses in the NFL. They have to win a game at some point, and this might be their best chance, facing a team they dominate at home. This will be an ugly, low-scoring game, dominated by two terrific defensive lines. In the end, it'll be decided by a turnover. For a change, it'll be the other quarterback -- not Geno Smith -- making the big mistake. Jets 20, Bills 16

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/145838/nfl-nation-week-8-game-predictions

[swiper]

Seems everyone picking the Jets. Marrone has to get his team to go out and take care of business. Hope Aaron Williams is near 100%

[sudzy]

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/145838/nfl-nation-week-8-game-predictions

This is what I got out of that


The Bills have never won at MetLife Stadium, losing each year there since that facility opened in 2010.

[Don't Panic]

This is what I got out of that

Poor sample size... I'm thinking 5th time is the charm.

[ublinkwescore]

I would bet on Buffalo winning tomorrow...

- - - Updated - - -

I would bet on Buffalo winning tomorrow...

[swiper]

Poor sample size... I'm thinking 5th time is the charm.

I wouldn't bet on the Bills in this one. Something tells me....

The key to the game? To me, it's the o-line's ability to run/pass block effectively. If they can do that reasonably well, then the Bills can win.

[Woodman]

Don't bet just enjoy the game.