Bills Toxic

[HAMMER]

Bills lead the league in "Toxic Differential", Championship!

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000419687/article/toxic-differential-watch-out-for-bills-texans-in-the-second-half

[swiper]

Bills lead the league in "Toxic Differential", Championship!

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000419687/article/toxic-differential-watch-out-for-bills-texans-in-the-second-half

Couple comments.

A) a lot of the what put the Bills there is Sammy Watkins - whether he did it himself or acted as a decoy to open up other receivers. I gotta get over this Id vs Ego battle I'm having about Watkins. Deep down inside I still believe that Whaley gave up the farm for this guy - but logic says he's a great player who is still getting better.

B) A lot of what put the Bills at the top was the lopsided plays all in the Jets game. I think this stat may change drastically for them after 5 or 6 more games.

C) Although I hate Billick and don't like that he thinks this way (that he describes in this article), I did find the article interesting and thought it made some sense.

But who cares what I think? LOL. I know the answer.

[better days]

If the Bills make the playoffs, the price for Watkins drops significantly & there is no question about his value.

[Ed]

This is pretty cool. I haven't heard of this before, but Billick is a pretty smart football guy.

With the way our defense is playing and having a guy like Watkins on offense, I would expect our explosive play differential to remain strong. I think turnovers have a significant amount of luck and unpredictability though. So I don't think we can just assume that our turnover ratio will continue to be this good. It will be interesting to see how things play out though. I'm looking forward to tracking this each week going forward. I'm assuming Billick will update this every week now.

[Fletch]

B) A lot of what put the Bills at the top was the lopsided plays all in the Jets game. I think this stat may change drastically for them after 5 or 6 more games.

Agree with you entirely.

Fans see what they want to see usually. I'm thinking the opposite, that we're in for another 2011 like slide in the second half and headed towards 8-8 if we're fortunate ourselves. The teams we've beaten are not good and aren't going anywhere and we barely beat three of them. The last two wins may very well be the worst two teams in the entire league. If not then they're both close to it. You have to look at what goes into stats like that too although many people don't.

Miami's worst game has been against us, they've played better against GB and NE than they did against us. I don't think that game is going to be easy for us. Oakland and the Jets are the only two teams that are worse than we are on our remaining schedule. Miami's comparable, Cleveland is comparable at worst and may be better, they'll have Gordon back for that game too, GB, NE, Denver, and KC are all better teams.

A lot of the stuff in that piece is overrated because of the Jets game in which we put up the fewest yards but over twice the amount of points on average that we usually have otherwise. That's not something you want to ignore when factoring all this stuff up.

[swiper]

The more fun that I have watching Watkins, the less I care what we paid to get him. That's my....

http://ts1.mm.bing.net/th?&id=HN.608015997622158723&w=300&h=300&c=0&pid=1.9&rs=0&p=0

[OpIv37]

If the Bills make the playoffs, the price for Watkins drops significantly & there is no question about his value.

The price has already been paid- it can't drop or rise.

What drops is the difference between what we paid for him and his actual value.

[swiper]

btw, how many different HAMMERS do we have here?

[imbondz]

I don't have the attention span to read that article and try to understand it. can someone explain what toxic differential is in 1-2 sentences?

[Fletch]

This is pretty cool. I haven't heard of this before, but Billick is a pretty smart football guy.

With the way our defense is playing and having a guy like Watkins on offense, I would expect our explosive play differential to remain strong. I think turnovers have a significant amount of luck and unpredictability though. So I don't think we can just assume that our turnover ratio will continue to be this good. It will be interesting to see how things play out though. I'm looking forward to tracking this each week going forward. I'm assuming Billick will update this every week now.

You're right about the TO ratio, but most of our TOs have come against the Jets, 1/3 of them in 8 games. We had none against SD or NE and we face four teams more on their caliber and with QBs like them, including NE again.

Minnesota, the Jets, Houston, Chicago and even Detroit are all ranked in the top 12 for offensive INTs. 2/3 of our TOs have been INTs.

Denver, GB, NE, Cleveland, and KC all rank in the bottom 10 teams for offensive INTs. Only Oakland and the Jets rank in the range of teams that we've gotten most of our TOs against. Even so, we struggled to win in three of those five wins where we had 7 total TOs. Once on a last-second FG, once on a last-second TD, neither of which teams had better talent than us on the field in those games, and once in OT.

Those predicting playoffs or even a winning record may want to prepare themselves for a dose of reality coming up.

[Fletch]

The more fun that I have watching Watkins, the less I care what we paid to get him.


The price has already been paid- it can't drop or rise.

What drops is the difference between what we paid for him and his actual value.

Fun to watch is one thing, making the best moves as a GM in building a playoff caliber team is entirely another.

To start, I think that this is going to hit home a little bit more if our 1st-round pick next season is a mid-high rounder and there's a good QB available.

Secondly, who are the best WRs in the game today, or have been? I'd say Andre Johnson being one, Calvin Johnson being another. Detroit has made the playoffs once and otherwise has performed worse than we have. Is or will Watkins be as good as CJ? I doubt it. He hasn't made that impact over there.

Same with Andre, he's been with the Texans almost since their inception but they're track record as a team isn't much better than our despite having had better and more consistent QBs, WRs, and RBs.

It's never about one player. We'll see at the end of the season. There aren't any other challengers to ROPY besides WRs, so if Watkins doesn't get that by a significant margin then it's going to be a difficult argument that he was worth two additional key picks next season over say Benjamin, who was available with our original pick, and those picks back.

Right now he's had four poor games against the Pats, Chargers, Houston, and Chicago. He's had great games against Minnesota, the Jets, and Miami. He played OK against Detroit. His ypr was very low prior to this last game which concerns me. He's putting up slot receiver ypr but he hasn't been playing the slot.

I'm definitely waiting to see more, like him playing well against some of the playoff teams on our schedule.

[feldspar]

I don't have the attention span to read that article and try to understand it. can someone explain what toxic differential is in 1-2 sentences?

Toxic differential is basically a number, which is arrived at by adding a team's net takeaways with a team's net number of plays that went for at least 20-yards.

So the Bills have forced 18 turnovers and turned the ball over 11 times: 18-11 = 7, so that that's half of it.

The Bills have had 35 offensive plays of 20-yards or more, and they've defensively allowed their opponents 22 plays of 20-yards or more: 35-22 = 13, and there is the other half of it.

Add the two categories together, 7 + 13, and the Bills' toxic differential is +20.

Got that, ya lazy bastard?

[trapezeus]

I don't have the attention span to read that article and try to understand it. can someone explain what toxic differential is in 1-2 sentences?


big plays offensively generated (20+ yards or more) - big plays defensively given up (TO)= number.

that number = + ----> you are doing a good job
that number = - ------> you are doing a bad job.

essentially every big play you have defensively should be met with a big play offensively.

bills get a crap load of turnovers. watkins is doing well. bills are the best in that category.

[HAMMER]

Didn't take long for the Douchers to come swarming. God forbid anyone enjoy a positive stat.

[trapezeus]

You're right about the TO ratio, but most of our TOs have come against the Jets, 1/3 of them in 8 games. We had none against SD or NE and we face four teams more on their caliber and with QBs like them, including NE again.

Minnesota, the Jets, Houston, Chicago and even Detroit are all ranked in the top 12 for offensive INTs. 2/3 of our TOs have been INTs.

Denver, GB, NE, Cleveland, and KC all rank in the bottom 10 teams for offensive INTs. Only Oakland and the Jets rank in the range of teams that we've gotten most of our TOs against. Even so, we struggled to win in three of those five wins where we had 7 total TOs. Once on a last-second FG, once on a last-second TD, neither of which teams had better talent than us on the field in those games, and once in OT.

Those predicting playoffs or even a winning record may want to prepare themselves for a dose of reality coming up.

and if they don't, if sure your doucheyness will be there to remind them. We'll also thank you for a season of constant reminders, even in the face of adversity.

[trapezeus]

Didn't take long for the Douchers to come swarming. God forbid anyone enjoy a positive stat.

you do have to adjust for outlier games to have the stat be meaningful/comparative.

it's definitely a good sign. my concern will always remain that the offense is unable to run a good 4-6 minute drive once or twice a game reliably. it's either 3 and out or its a long play. it puts a lot of wear and tear on a defense that is on the verge of being great. but they are being abandoned on the field.

[SpikedLemonade]

The teams we've beaten are not good and aren't going anywhere.....

That is not true of the Lions and Dolphins.

[Dr. Lecter]

That is not true of the Lions and Dolphins.

But they had bad games against the Bills and the Bills barely beat Detroit

They don't count.

[Dr. Lecter]

BTW, in terms of the Bills not beating good teams - they are 4th in the AFC and 7th in the NFL in strength of victory %

http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/sort/strengthOfVictory/order/true

So, in terms of actual breakdown of who they beat and how good the teams are, they are actually doing pretty well.

At least based on actual facts and stuff

[feldspar]

Didn't take long for the Douchers to come swarming.

It never does.

God forbid that they apply all these asterisks that they like so much to every other team, and nitpick everything all the time for those teams. No, everybody else's stats are squeaky clean, apparently...or at least not worth mentioning mostly.

Stats only mean so much, anyway. But turnovers and big plays are pretty important, I'd say. I can see giving some weight to the toxic differential.

[imbondz]

Toxic differential is basically a number, which is arrived at by adding a team's net takeaways with a team's net number of plays that went for at least 20-yards.

So the Bills have forced 18 turnovers and turned the ball over 11 times: 18-11 = 7, so that that's half of it.

The Bills have had 35 offensive plays of 20-yards or more, and they've defensively allowed their opponents 22 plays of 20-yards or more: 35-22 = 13, and there is the other half of it.

Add the two categories together, 7 + 13, and the Bills' toxic differential is +20.

Got that, ya lazy bastard?


yep! much easier than reading that article.

[Dr. Lecter]

yep! much easier than reading that article.


They really need to use more pictures with these articles for you.......

[SpikedLemonade]

But they had bad games against the Bills and the Bills barely beat Detroit

They don't count.

Look this could very well all fall apart during the next 4 games to no one's surprise, but that does not take away from an impressive first half of the season.

I wish our OL and running game were better since it would make us less vulnerable however perhaps our D has even another level it can rise to to enable us to win 5 more games.

[Fletch]

That is not true of the Lions and Dolphins.

It is true of Detroit, they were a shell of their normal team on offense when we played them.

I don't consider Miami to be good, they seem below average. I mean who is expecting them to break .500? All the talk here prior to the season was how they sucked, now they're good according to people here? They're OK, probably about like us. That game had much energy and much like the Jets last week we allowed them to hang around into the 4th too. Remember, it was a FG fest for us.

Either way, let's no leapfrog the point, the second half features teams much tougher than we had in the first half and teams that typically aren't going to make the kinds of TOs that have led us to victories. So we'll have to find ways to win otherwise.

[Fletch]

It never does.

God forbid that they apply all these asterisks that they like so much to every other team, and nitpick everything all the time for those teams. No, everybody else's stats are squeaky clean, apparently...or at least not worth mentioning mostly.

Stats only mean so much, anyway. But turnovers and big plays are pretty important, I'd say. I can see giving some weight to the toxic differential.

Let me ask some of you, what was so offensive about what I posted? Seriously?

What was so offensive to you that you felt you had no choice but to start name-calling and putting me down, etc.?

I mean are you guys that out of control with your emotional wherewithal? Sure seems like it.

Comes across to many like the same types that want to start brawls at games because they don't like what an opposing fan said.

[Fletch]

Look this could very well all fall apart during the next 4 games to no one's surprise, but that does not take away from an impressive first half of the season.

I wish our OL and running game were better since it would make us less vulnerable however perhaps our D has even another level it can rise to to enable us to win 5 more games.

What gets me is at the beginning of the season everyone was talking about how great our OL was and how our RBs were elite especially because we had players like Brown and Dixon as backups both of whom could start should the need arise. I can even go find the thread entitled that. Anyone that insisted otherwise was called all kinds of things.

Now all of a sudden they're problematic.

This is nuts here.

One thing that hardly anyone mentions is that our defense had better tighten up its running D here soon or we're ****ed. 333 yards allowed the last two weeks, I don't see any of these articles mentioning that. Only the positives.

I'm highly concerned about that. Only a fool wouldn't be.

[casdhf]

What gets me is at the beginning of the season everyone was talking about how great our OL was and how our RBs were elite especially because we had players like Brown and Dixon as backups both of whom could start should the need arise. I can even go find the thread entitled that. Anyone that insisted otherwise was called all kinds of things.

Now all of a sudden they're problematic.

This is nuts here.

One thing that hardly anyone mentions is that our defense had better tighten up its running D here soon or we're ****ed. 333 yards allowed the last two weeks, I don't see any of these articles mentioning that. Only the positives.

I'm highly concerned about that. Only a fool wouldn't be.
Kinda like all those threads saying Watkins was going to be a bust? You can't win them all, Fletch.

[trapezeus]

What gets me is at the beginning of the season everyone was talking about how great our OL was and how our RBs were elite especially because we had players like Brown and Dixon as backups both of whom could start should the need arise. I can even go find the thread entitled that. Anyone that insisted otherwise was called all kinds of things.

Now all of a sudden they're problematic.

This is nuts here.

One thing that hardly anyone mentions is that our defense had better tighten up its running D here soon or we're ****ed. 333 yards allowed the last two weeks, I don't see any of these articles mentioning that. Only the positives.

I'm highly concerned about that. Only a fool wouldn't be.

and you're the guy saying how dixon and bryce are no good because they went against the 6th rated rush defense and struggled to produce.

you're the kind of guy who goes to the stadium, talks nonstop about how right you are and then end up surprised that someone started a fight with you. always the victim, right fletch/very wide right

[Dr. Lecter]

One thing that hardly anyone mentions is that our defense had better tighten up its running D here soon or we're ****ed. 333 yards allowed the last two weeks, I don't see any of these articles mentioning that. Only the positives.

I'm highly concerned about that. Only a fool wouldn't be.

The run defense gave up 106 yards last week on 25 carries. 69 yards were to Vick. That is not on the run defense. It is on contain on the pass rushers.

Which was largely corrected at half time.

[Dr. Lecter]

Only the positives.




And this is funny.

And ironic.

[Fletch]

Kinda like all those threads saying Watkins was going to be a bust? You can't win them all, Fletch.

Yeah, it's a real shame that I didn't say that, huh. Try as you may, you'll never be able to quote me.

I will stand by my statement that I'd rather have taken Benjamin, the next best available, with our original 9th and still had our 1st and 4th next year.

Right now I don't think that there's a non-Bills fan out there that wouldn't make the same decision. Go ahead, send an e-mail to your favorite talking head and ask him which he would prefer. I dare ya. lol

[Dr. Lecter]

Yeah, it's a real shame that I didn't say that, huh. Try as you may, you'll never be able to quote me.

I will stand by my statement that I'd rather have taken Benjamin, the next best available, with our original 9th and still had our 1st and 4th next year.

Right now I don't think that there's a non-Bills fan out there that wouldn't make the same decision. Go ahead, send an e-mail to your favorite talking head and ask him which he would prefer. I dare ya. lol

Only if you e-mail your favorite talking head and ask him if he likes the Bills defense.

I dare ya

[Fletch]

The run defense gave up 106 yards last week on 25 carries. 69 yards were to Vick. That is not on the run defense. It is on contain on the pass rushers.

Which was largely corrected at half time.

LOL

Oh, I see, so those don't count.

I'll make a note for future reference. Who were the people ranting about our #1 ranked run D just two weeks ago? Yeah, that's right, you were in among them. So explain to us all how we're now ranked 8th?

The symbol for this place ought to be the Good Humor truck.

[Fletch]

Only if you e-mail your favorite talking head and ask him if he likes the Bills defense.

I dare ya

I never put faith in talking heads and I don't have a favorite. I'm perfectly capable of thinking on my own.

Happy to make some friendly wagers with you if you like since you seem to think that you know so much more than I do about this team.

Just let me know. At seasons end one of us will admit to the other that he doesn't know as much as he thought he did. Send me a PM if you want to engage.

[Dr. Lecter]

LOL

Oh, I see, so those don't count.

I'll make a note for future reference. Who were the people ranting about our #1 ranked run D just two weeks ago? Yeah, that's right, you were in among them. So explain to us all how we're now ranked 8th?

The symbol for this place ought to be the Good Humor truck.

that is not what I said.

What I said is that it is not on the run defense.

You can disagree with what I say. Don't miscontrue it.

If you know as much as you claim to about football and are the world's most smartest poster, then you would realize that there is a difference between a running play and a quarterback scrambling. It is quite different for the defense and stopping the plays requires a much different skill set and scheme

And where was I ranting? If you can provide a link I would like it.

BTW, want to tell me which team (Bills or Jets) you picked to win the game?

And cut the insults unless you are now willing to take them back. If you notice I addressed what you said directly.

But by all means. tell us all that we are stupid. And you are smart. Again

One other thing - you avoided a question last time. How old are you?

Based on the know it all attitude and the lack of ability to read what people say or have a reasonable discussion, I guess mid-late 20s. Maybe, early 30s.

[Dr. Lecter]

I never put faith in talking heads and I don't have a favorite. I'm perfectly capable of thinking on my own.

Happy to make some friendly wagers with you if you like since you seem to think that you know so much more than I do about this team.

Just let me know. At seasons end one of us will admit to the other that he doesn't know as much as he thought he did. Send me a PM if you want to engage.


I'm not the one calling people stupid in nearly every post.

That's you.

I read and learn here. And elsewhere.

Besides, the talking head thing was your idea.

[HAMMER]

Can't someone just ban this guy, he ruins every thread on the board.

[better days]

The price has already been paid- it can't drop or rise.

What drops is the difference between what we paid for him and his actual value.

The Bills paid a first & fourth rnd pick in the next draft.

If those picks are in the top 10 it is a much higher price than if at the bottom of the draft.

And if the Bills make the playoffs, it will be a MUCH lower pick & price than if the Bills finished with 3-4 wins as some said they would.

[feldspar]

Let me ask some of you, what was so offensive about what I posted? Seriously?

What was so offensive to you that you felt you had no choice but to start name-calling and putting me down, etc.?

I mean are you guys that out of control with your emotional wherewithal? Sure seems like it.



The relatively meaningless world of Internet message boards does not revolve around you, Fletch...since you asked.

I've never been offended by anything you say. I'd have to place some sort of importance in what you say before that could ever happen.

"Start brawls." LOL.

Read and understand what I said if you want to know what I meant. This was implicit.

Don't think that you'll ever understand exactly why some people view you as a douchebag, at this rate. Like I say, you have no idea why. It's certainly not for the reasons you think. It's not because of "the facts."

[swiper]

I don't have the attention span to read that article and try to understand it. can someone explain what toxic differential is in 1-2 sentences?

I have a poor attention span and I got through it. It's pretty easy to read. The more I read, the more interesting I found it.

[swiper]

Didn't take long for the Douchers to come swarming. God forbid anyone enjoy a positive stat.

It's a false thing. You publish that stat right after the Jets game where the Bills had a +6/43 point game? It is not going to last. So set yourself up to be sad.

[trapezeus]

Yeah, it's a real shame that I didn't say that, huh. Try as you may, you'll never be able to quote me.

I will stand by my statement that I'd rather have taken Benjamin, the next best available, with our original 9th and still had our 1st and 4th next year.

Right now I don't think that there's a non-Bills fan out there that wouldn't make the same decision. Go ahead, send an e-mail to your favorite talking head and ask him which he would prefer. I dare ya. lol

you should do this. tweet an NFL analyst and see if they can even respond to "without taking value into consideration, would you rather have watkins or benjamin" then ask them with the trade.

the first one, everyone would take watkins over benjamin. and i'm guessing its a 50/50 split taking the trade up.

each week, watkins continues to show that he's worth a high price. if he was producing at half his level, i'd say he has a good chance to pan out based on previous rookies.

the level of stupidity you reach on each post is astounding.

[tomz]

It's a false thing. You publish that stat right after the Jets game where the Bills had a +6/43 point game? It is not going to last. So set yourself up to be sad.

Actually, the Bills had one particularly good game against the Jets and one particularly bad one against the Pats. So there are 'outliers' in each direction. Before the Pats game, the Bills were tied for TO differential, I believe.

The bottom line is that though the stats are sometimes Rorschach tests, there are people here who will qualify or attempt to explain away anything that looks positive. We beat teams that are competent, it is not because we are a decent team, it's because those teams 'had a bad game' or were missing this or that player.

[gebobs]

Couple comments.

A) a lot of the what put the Bills there is Sammy Watkins - whether he did it himself or acted as a decoy to open up other receivers. I gotta get over this Id vs Ego battle I'm having about Watkins. Deep down inside I still believe that Whaley gave up the farm for this guy - but logic says he's a great player who is still getting better.

Watkins accounts for 9 of those 35 big plays, most on the Bills.

Watkins - 9
Chandler - 6
Freddy - 5
Woods - 5
CJ - 4
Hogan - 3
Mike Williams - 2
Boobie - 1
Goodwin - 1

Both QBs have played four games, EJ started well and got cold (4,4,4,1 - 13). Orton is more consistent (5,5,3,4 - 17). Note, these numbers do not include runs.

I'm with you on Sammy. I was a doubter. He's a rare player.


B) A lot of what put the Bills at the top was the lopsided plays all in the Jets game. I think this stat may change drastically for them after 5 or 6 more games.
The turnovers in that game were what really boosted the Bills. They only had four big plays according to this metric. Granted, two of them were long passes to Watkins, but they still only count as two. But yeah, the Jets game as a whole was the biggest game. I didn't count up the big plays against, but if we just go by turnover differential and big plays for, the game by game count is 8,7,4,3,6,2,2,10.

So, of course, games like that are going to be rare. Hopefully the other end will be rare too. But I agree. It's not likely that the Bills will continue to average 2.5 toxic points per game. I hope like hell they do. It'll be hard without Freddy and CJ.

The team is fun to watch most weeks so far. The only real stinkers were NE and SD. They could have won in Houston but for that bonehead play by EJ.

[JohnnyGold]

Yeah, it's a real shame that I didn't say that, huh. Try as you may, you'll never be able to quote me.

I will stand by my statement that I'd rather have taken Benjamin, the next best available, with our original 9th and still had our 1st and 4th next year.

Right now I don't think that there's a non-Bills fan out there that wouldn't make the same decision. Go ahead, send an e-mail to your favorite talking head and ask him which he would prefer. I dare ya. lol


Actually Fetch, couldn't disagree with you more on this one.

You may think (and may very well be right) that the Bills gave up too much for a specialty player, or that they could have used the picks differently, but living out of market, even talk radio where I am gushes about Watkins. The kid is a star, plain and simple. You don't need statistics to verify what you're seeing with your eyes. His one mistake all year was slowing up on an 84 yard reception--that's amazing.

He could (if he isn't already) easily be the best wide out in the league in the next few years... I'm glad we got him on this team, and I love watching him on Sundays!

[JohnnyGold]

Actually, the Bills had one particularly good game against the Jets and one particularly bad one against the Pats. So there are 'outliers' in each direction. Before the Pats game, the Bills were tied for TO differential, I believe.

The bottom line is that though the stats are sometimes Rorschach tests, there are people here who will qualify or attempt to explain away anything that looks positive. We beat teams that are competent, it is not because we are a decent team, it's because those teams 'had a bad game' or were missing this or that player.

Team v. team stats are largely useless in professional football. There are too many variables to control for, and it's not an accurate sample... each team does not play the same schedule, in the same environments, for a large enough amount of time. It is like looking outside your window at 9am in the morning, seeing a Toyota, a Ford, and a Toyota drive by, and deducing that 67% of the country drives Toyotas.

I know that's a very condescending way to explain NFL statistics, but it's amazing how poorly some people grasp simple mathematical concepts (not saying you're one of them!)

The NFL just isn't a "large" enough league to be wedded to statistics the way some fans want it to be... and that's why it's such a popular sport. You can come up with 100 statistical reasons why the Bills should beat the Chiefs in 2 weeks, but absolutely none of it matters or impacts that game in any way, shape, or form. And because most of the statistics are used ex post facto, they become EVEN MORE meaningless, because they can't be used to predict future results.

The internet, advanced metrics, and 24 hour news coverage of the sport has given fans access to the game like never before, and that's AWESOME. I can always read new things about the Bills, any day of the week, any time of the day. Man, I used to have to wait for SHOUT! (the official newspaper of the Buffalo Bills) to come in my out of market mailbox every week... and 1x a month in the offseason. Sometimes, the newspaper wouldn't get there until after the next game had already been played! But with this constant access comes this notion that... something new needs to be said every day... we can't just talk about being excited about the games, or talk about how we HOPE the Bills beat the Chiefs... or how Watkins is our favorite player...

We now feel that we need to quantify these things, or rationalize them. Watkins can't be the best because his DVOA is lower than his TOXIC rating indicates it should be against the top percentile of teams in a strength of schedule rating... what?

Who gives a *****?

GO BILLS!

[Mace]

I have a poor attention span and I got through it. It's pretty easy to read. The more I read, the more interesting I found it.

For what it's worth, I'm not a big Billick fan, but I found it real interesting even before I realized we were at the top of it. I skipped over the chart at first.

It's a just a metric but a happy one for us. Maybe it will carry more weight as the games proceed, maybe not, but it is good to see for now. Billick is not an arbitrary Bills booster.

[tomz]

Well said. I Agree completely. In my post the examples mentioned were not my opinion but we're meant to illustrate what you see on the board. As you say let's not overthink this! Go Bills!

[Edward Robinson]

Agree with you entirely.

Fans see what they want to see usually. I'm thinking the opposite, that we're in for another 2011 like slide in the second half and headed towards 8-8 if we're fortunate ourselves. The teams we've beaten are not good and aren't going anywhere and we barely beat three of them. The last two wins may very well be the worst two teams in the entire league. If not then they're both close to it. You have to look at what goes into stats like that too although many people don't.


Miami's worst game has been against us, they've played better against GB and NE than they did against us. I don't think that game is going to be easy for us. Oakland and the Jets are the only two teams that are worse than we are on our remaining schedule. Miami's comparable, Cleveland is comparable at worst and may be better, they'll have Gordon back for that game too, GB, NE, Denver, and KC are all better teams.

A lot of the stuff in that piece is overrated because of the Jets game in which we put up the fewest yards but over twice the amount of points on average that we usually have otherwise. That's not something you want to ignore when factoring all this stuff up.

No fletch usually see what he wants to see. Just like you kept harping on how bad the run d was because we havent faced anyone. Yet we play the jets and shut them down and now I do not here anything about the run d. You are a funny dude posing as a BILLS fan

[HAMMER]

More over ANALyzation as usual. Just enjoy the stat folks. We all know there are many variables involved.

[OpIv37]

More over ANALyzation as usual. Just enjoy the stat folks. We all know there are many variables involved.

so you post a stat that attempts to rank teams by combining the plus-minus ratio of big plays (defined as 20+ yards) with the plus-minus ratio of turnovers, then whine that other people are over-analyzing.

Sure, makes perfect sense.

[HAMMER]

Sour Puss

[BuffaloRedleg]

This is a self-evidently useless stat. Look at the rankings in this differential, and then overlay team records.

Fun to see us at the top though and getting some positive press.

[psubills62]

gebobs beat me to it. We put up 43 points, but that isn't what's counted in toxic differential. Only 4 explosive plays for Buffalo, which if you consider we had 35 over 8 games, that's only just above our average from the other games.

The turnovers affect the stat, but remove the Jets game and we're still a +12 toxic differential, which would be tied for 3rd. So yeah, still really good.

[gebobs]

This is a self-evidently useless stat. Look at the rankings in this differential, and then overlay team records.

Fun to see us at the top though and getting some positive press.

The only statistic that means a damn thing is wins. Every other stat is an attempt to predict future performance based on the past. And as Niels Bohr once said: "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future."

[gebobs]

The NFL just isn't a "large" enough league to be wedded to statistics the way some fans want it to be... and that's why it's such a popular sport. You can come up with 100 statistical reasons why the Bills should beat the Chiefs in 2 weeks, but absolutely none of it matters or impacts that game in any way, shape, or form. And because most of the statistics are used ex post facto, they become EVEN MORE meaningless, because they can't be used to predict future results.

Truth.

But that's part of the appeal of NFL stats. Every team, well maybe not the Raiders, can point to some stat to buoy their spirits. Hey, my quarterback had a 90+ rating for 3 weeks straight. So? Well, he's obviously going to do that forever. Hmmmm...betcha two bits he doesn't this week.

[Ed]

These stats aren't meant to be a predictor of future success. They simply demonstrate that there is a strong correlation between turnover/explosive play ratios and winning football games. Through the first half of the season a team like the Bills has been widely considered an overachiever and a team like the Saints an underachiever, and when you look at toxic differential it's easy to see how they have gotten there.

The Jets game helped to inflate the Bills toxic differential, but whether they had been +1 or +10 in that game doesn't change their record and has no impact on what their toxic differential will be during their last 8 games.

I think turnovers are going to be harder to come by in the second half based on our opponents, so if the Bills want to maintain a high toxic differential it's really going to come down to how well Orton takes care of the football and eliminating costly fumbles by the other guys on offense.

[justasportsfan]

Fletch logic.



The run defense gave up 106 yards last week on 25 carries. 69 yards were to Vick. That is not on the run defense. It is on contain on the pass rushers.


LOL

Oh, I see, so those don't count.



but when Watkins catches over 100 yards vs. Jets......

Fletch: " but if you take away his longest catch........ he caught that vs. a bad pass D......blah,blah"







Fans see what they want to see usually.

look in the mirror. You're arguing with yourself.

[trapezeus]

the interesting thing is that our big play guy has made those big plays with double coverage. teams can try to shut him down to gain the advantage, but it isn't really working.

the pats game was a bit odd because they were using him as a decoy and woods had a good game. so the offensive big plays will be hard to stop if orton remains the qb.

the turnover seem to come in bunches. and the team is somewhat reliant to get turnovers in wins.:

week1. - +2 W
Week 2 - +2 W
Week 3 - 0 L
Week 4 - +1 L - their one turnover was a pick 6 so the defense couldn't bail us out
week 5 - +1 W - their kicker missed 3 kicks which was like 3 turnovers.
Week 6 - -3 L
Week 7- -2 W
week 8 - +6 W