Dissecting Sammy Watkins' quiet afternoon

[Fletch]

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- It hasn't taken long for Sammy Watkins (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/16725/sammy-watkins) to become a vital cog in the Buffalo Bills (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/buf/buffalo-bills)' offense.

Consider this: When Watkins has more than 30 receiving yards, the Bills are 5-0. When he has 30 or fewer, the Bills are 0-4.

Watkins was targeted 10 times in Sunday's 17-13 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/kc/kansas-city-chiefs), catching just four passes for 27 yards.


<tbody>





</tbody>
So what happened? Here's a breakdown of each of Watkins' 10 targets:

http://espn.go.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/15136/dissecting-sammy-watkins-quiet-afternoon

----------

Here's "one of those articles."

What isn't mentioned is that maybe Watkins' lesser games are because the competition in the opposing secondary is tougher than in the other games on average.

Also, we're 4-1 when we're positive in the turnover battle and 1-3 when we're negative or even, which has equally much to do with our wins.

Of the 5 wins mentioned above, only one of those teams, Detroit, is likely headed to the playoffs. The rest will be lucky to finish .500. Of the 4 mentioned losses, three of those teams are likely headed to the playoffs.

Too many people trying to make Watkins out to be more than he is.

We'll see how Watkins does the rest of the season, but if he continues to not do much against playoff teams and better secondaries then I don't see how people can continue to talk about him as if he was hands-down the best WR in this draft class.

He's good, but I think that the decision to trade away next year's 1st is going to be painful come draft time next year.

This isn't a knock on Watkins at all, rather a knock on Whaley.

[Buffalogic]

He's hurt.

[Fletch]

So are lots of other players. Megatron is hurt and has been hurt and he had 7 catches for 113 yards and a TD against Miami on Sunday.

That's "special."

Being hurt is an excuse. Watkins needs to start playing bigger and better against some of the better DBs more regularly and against the playoff caliber teams too if he wants, or rather if his fans want him to accede to that level of recognition.

[kingJofNYC]

Megatron hadn't played in weeks.

How'd your boy Benjamin do last night?

[Edward Robinson]

So are lots of other players. Megatron is hurt and has been hurt and he had 7 catches for 113 yards and a TD against Miami on Sunday.

That's "special."

Being hurt is an excuse. Watkins needs to start playing bigger and better against some of the better DBs more regularly and against the playoff caliber teams too if he wants, or rather if his fans want him to accede to that level of recognition.


So says the person who has never taken a college or NFL football snap in his life.

[kingJofNYC]

Sammie Watkins won us the Lions game with broken ribs, just an average joe who can't play through pain....

[feldspar]

He's hurt.

Yeah, he's hurt and he didn't really practice this week, which is bigger for a rookie.

Freddie was hurt too. Guess we should pile on him as well.

[kingJofNYC]

Yeah, he's hurt and he didn't really practice this week, which is bigger for a rookie.

Freddie was hurt too. Guess we should pile on him as well.

Fred's a gutless loser who can't fight through pain!

/Fletch

[Fletch]

Megatron hadn't played in weeks.

How'd your boy Benjamin do last night?

Exactly.

Don't know, go look and let me know. On the season though he's got more receiving yards, a greater yards per catch, and more TDs. I think that if OROY voting were to be held now he'd win it over Watkins.


Sammie Watkins won us the Lions game with broken ribs, just an average joe who can't play through pain....

Right, one of two games that we won due to Sammy. That and Minnesota.

Here's a question for you, why did we need a huge night from Sammy to beat Minnesota? At home?

Still, you're right, but those are the only two games. The Jets win was a rout from top to bottom as was the Fins game. Lots of players contributed as did the D in both games.

He did little in our Chicago win.

So two games like that is enough to annoint him as being special and the best WR in the draft?

[kingJofNYC]

Benjamin can't hold Watkins jock, he embarrassed himself last night. He has 50 more yards and a couple of more touchdowns, but yet he's the GOAT in your mind. Injury free too.

Whatever, if Watkins nukes Miami, we won't see you for another two weeks or longer. Watkins wrecks the Dolphins, that somehow doesn't count...lol Hilarious.

[Dr. Who]

You're trying to hard with your obsession with Sammy's value.
Why don't you just wait and see how things play out over the next year or so?
I think you're already pretty clearly wrong, but whatever the truth is, it won't be established by dissecting every game.

[kingJofNYC]

Here's the bottom line. We don't know what Watkins will develop into, but he's clearly our best offensive weapon.

Now Fletch is upset that Whaley spent 2015 first round pick on Watkins, fine, at some point he'll just get over it. I mean they spent 1st round picks on countless busts the last decade, some folks act like first rounders are sure fire hits. When it's the Bills doing the drafting you never know what you're going to get in the first round, or any team for that matter, but the Bills have a bad history in the 1st round. More ammo the better, I understand that, but with the Bills rep, I'd rather take a surer thing. Bills draft history is a different topic entirely.

I'm more angry that we spent a first on EJ, but I'm over at this point. At least with Watkins I know he's a quality player. Draft was deep at WR, but the first 3 were clearly above the rest in my mind.

[trapezeus]

Exactly.

Don't know, go look and let me know. On the season though he's got more receiving yards, a greater yards per catch, and more TDs. I think that if OROY voting were to be held now he'd win it over Watkins.



Right, one of two games that we won due to Sammy. That and Minnesota.

Here's a question for you, why did we need a huge night from Sammy to beat Minnesota? At home?

Still, you're right, but those are the only two games. The Jets win was a rout from top to bottom as was the Fins game. Lots of players contributed as did the D in both games.

He did little in our Chicago win.

So two games like that is enough to annoint him as being special and the best WR in the draft?


You are a complete tool. Half of the rookie of the year award is based on popularity and the talking heads. they are in love with watkins. no one says boo about benjamin. If it ended today, watkins would finish ahead of benjamin.

the rest of this tread remains garbage. your obsession to be right every 3 weeks is growing old.

and we did what you do before the game. said that KC has a great pass d by the stat line so we can dismiss watkins performance. We literally said this BEFORE the game. And then add a late week groin injury.

When are you going to stop posting here?

[trapezeus]

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- It hasn't taken long for Sammy Watkins (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/16725/sammy-watkins) to become a vital cog in the Buffalo Bills (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/buf/buffalo-bills)' offense.

Consider this: When Watkins has more than 30 receiving yards, the Bills are 5-0. When he has 30 or fewer, the Bills are 0-4.

Watkins was targeted 10 times in Sunday's 17-13 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/kc/kansas-city-chiefs), catching just four passes for 27 yards.


<tbody>





</tbody>
So what happened? Here's a breakdown of each of Watkins' 10 targets:

http://espn.go.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/15136/dissecting-sammy-watkins-quiet-afternoon

----------

Here's "one of those articles."

What isn't mentioned is that maybe Watkins' lesser games are because the competition in the opposing secondary is tougher than in the other games on average.

Also, we're 4-1 when we're positive in the turnover battle and 1-3 when we're negative or even, which has equally much to do with our wins.

Of the 5 wins mentioned above, only one of those teams, Detroit, is likely headed to the playoffs. The rest will be lucky to finish .500. Of the 4 mentioned losses, three of those teams are likely headed to the playoffs.

Too many people trying to make Watkins out to be more than he is.

We'll see how Watkins does the rest of the season, but if he continues to not do much against playoff teams and better secondaries then I don't see how people can continue to talk about him as if he was hands-down the best WR in this draft class.

He's good, but I think that the decision to trade away next year's 1st is going to be painful come draft time next year.

This isn't a knock on Watkins at all, rather a knock on Whaley.

do you read what you link to? and did you watch the game. he caught what was catchable. he had no drops. he broke up 2 possible interceptions.

On the actual stuff you know about, are you any good? Because you suck on this topic of WR stats and who you would rather have reached for with the 9 pick.

[Fletch]

Whatever, if Watkins nukes Miami, we won't see you for another two weeks or longer. Watkins wrecks the Dolphins, that somehow doesn't count...lol Hilarious.

Does everything have to turn into something personal here?

I'll come and post as threads offer good content. Several have diminished into nothing but little (or big) tiffs between varying posters.

Was there something in my posts that offended you personally? If so, please point it out and I'll do my best to refrain from such language in the future.

- - - Updated - - -


Here's the bottom line. We don't know what Watkins will develop into, but he's clearly our best offensive weapon.

Now Fletch is upset that Whaley spent 2015 first round pick on Watkins, fine, at some point he'll just get over it. I mean they spent 1st round picks on countless busts the last decade, some folks act like first rounders are sure fire hits. When it's the Bills doing the drafting you never know what you're going to get in the first round, or any team for that matter, but the Bills have a bad history in the 1st round. More ammo the better, I understand that, but with the Bills rep, I'd rather take a surer thing. Bills draft history is a different topic entirely.

I'm more angry that we spent a first on EJ, but I'm over at this point. At least with Watkins I know he's a quality player. Draft was deep at WR, but the first 3 were clearly above the rest in my mind.

I'll get over it when Whaley disappears. That's when I'll get over it. That's the root of our problems in this team.

[Pinkerton Security]

grasping for straws. Go become a Panthers fan Fletch, they looked great last night

[trapezeus]

Benjamin can't hold Watkins jock, he embarrassed himself last night. He has 50 more yards and a couple of more touchdowns, but yet he's the GOAT in your mind. Injury free too.

Whatever, if Watkins nukes Miami, we won't see you for another two weeks or longer. Watkins wrecks the Dolphins, that somehow doesn't count...lol Hilarious.


BUT But but...benjamin scored 2 TDs this week. watkins had none! Just disregard that benjamin had 3 catches for 70 yards. And as long as you disregard that you'll want to disregard that 2 of those 3 catches came with 9 minutes remaining and 5 minutes remaining when the score was 45-7. he got 61 yards (out of the 70) after the game was out of control and the scrubs were in.

that is clearly the sign of an allstar WR. His 1 catch for 9 yards on 8 targets don't say that he's just another rookie on a bad team that hasn't made a difference when the game was on the line. Watkins is a rookie on a bad team had has had more meaningful performance in game results and overall game day planning.

but remember someone is going to ask fletch for his well reasoned opinion. and we know this is true because it's all he ever says.

[kingJofNYC]

On the 4th down play:


https://twitter.com/YardsPerPass/status/532202148957007872

[feldspar]

Exactly.

Don't know, go look and let me know. On the season though he's got more receiving yards, a greater yards per catch, and more TDs. I think that if OROY voting were to be held now he'd win it over Watkins.

You are WAY too hung up on stats there, fella. How many of the Panthers games have you even watched this year? Seen the highlights on Sportscenter?

I guess you didn't watch the Eagles/Panthers game on Monday Night. Well, Kelvin Benjamin caught two longer touchdown passes...one for 21 yards, and another for 40 yards. Pretty impressive when you look at the stat sheet, isn't it? The only thing is that these stats are pretty much garbage. It was almost halfway through the 4th quarter when they happened, and the score was Philadelphia 45 - Carolina 7. Hurray! Final score, 45-21. Other than that meaningless garbage...AGAIN...Benjamin had ONE catch for 9 yards, which happened in the second quarter. Some more Benjamin garbage numbers that look good on paper.

You may want to actually WATCH the games before you say anything about who is who and what happened. The stat sheet won't tell you that, and neither will ESPN's highlight reel.


Right, one of two games that we won due to Sammy. That and Minnesota.

...

So two games like that is enough to annoint him as being special and the best WR in the draft?

If Sammy is the difference between the Bills being 5-4 and 3-6, that should be enough for any douchebag to STFU and be glad he's on the football team. The stats aren't enough for you or something? That's probably the best stat I could come up with.

Then again, why even watch the games? Just look at the stat sheet afterward.

[Fletch]

do you read what you link to? and did you watch the game. he caught what was catchable. he had no drops. he broke up 2 possible interceptions.

On the actual stuff you know about, are you any good? Because you suck on this topic of WR stats and who you would rather have reached for with the 9 pick.

Yes, I did, I thought it was a fairly objective account of the game. Still, he had 4 catches for 27 yards in this game.

I was one of the first if not the first person to point out that he was open on that failed 4th down play, some people even hammered me for insisting that the loss wasn't Brown's fault when Brown had nothing to do with that play and it was Orton's throw. I can't win for losing here with you.

Here's the thing, and it's a fact, besides Detroit Watkins hasn't stepped up in any of our biggest games. SD, whiff. NE, whiff. KC, whiff.

If that continues we'll see him whiff in most of our other games.

I think we need to look at reality here. That link to that ESPN article implies that Watkins was responsible for all the wins. Well, was he responsible for the Jets and Fins wins? Seems to me that both those games were blowouts and on the low end of scoring since we had to settle for a buttload of FGs in the Miami game.

The fact is that the only two games in which Watkins was the difference maker were the Detroit and Minny games, I've said this a number of times and you'll probably hammer me for repeating it, but the greater issue is ignoring that and denying that that's the case for purposes of discussion.

Otherwise, say what you will, Watkins simply has not distinguished himself as being so much better than two or three other rookie WRs, again, in a season where there's going to likely be a rookie record for 1,000 yard seasons. He's not tops overall in any categories and not even 2nd on average. To suggest that he's so much better just doesn't have the data to back it up. He's among the least consistent top rookies as well.

Look, if he, or his fans, want him to be legitimately labeled special, then he'll have to start showing up against some playoff teams. As it was we were probably lucky to have been able to play Detroit without their entire starting skill position line-up except for Tate in order to even give us the opportunity to pull that game out late, otherwise it's hard to envision Detroit not having scored at least another FG with megatron much less Bush and Bell in the lineup.

If Watkins is that good he'll aspire to that status, but it's not going to be because a bunch of posters in a fan forum that's for his team say so only.

[GvilleBills]

Fletch won't be happy until Whaley is gone, it's too bad.

Whaley is the best front office guy since Polian, but it doesn't matter.

Down with Dougie Whales!

[feldspar]

Fletch won't be happy until Whaley is gone, it's too bad.

Whaley is the best front office guy since Polian, but it doesn't matter.

Down with Dougie Whales!

Whaley has been the GM for about a year-and-a-half.

Guess he should have completely rebuilt this team by now...or is it that we can still blame him for what happened before?

He needs more time as the man in charge. Also, a little continuity wouldn't hurt. Bring in a new GM and coach, and they probably aren't trying to build the same type of team and system.

[Mr. Pink]

Much like Coastal with Mario Williams, nothing Watkins will ever be able to do will justify the price in Fletch's eyes.

[gebobs]

Kind of hard for Sammy to make it back to get a ball that was underthrown by about 10 effing yards.

[Fletch]

Kind of hard for Sammy to make it back to get a ball that was underthrown by about 10 effing yards.

Yes, I recall having been the first one to say that on Sunday when everyone was griping.

Don't let facts stand in the way of a good slandering though. Never has here.

You guys are so enrapt with personal vendetta that you can't even pick out the truth.

It's a real shame. Otherwise, really, I'm not sure what on earth I did to any of you to warrant this.

And yes, I won't be happy until Whaley's gone and yes, he's only been the GM for two years but he's also been the point man on personnel for 5 years. Naturally that doesn't account for anything here, but when he was in a far lesser role in Pittsburgh all of their good moves were because of him. That's the logic that you guys have reduced yourselves to.

It remains entertaining if nothing else.

[trapezeus]

Yes, I recall having been the first one to say that on Sunday when everyone was griping.

Don't let facts stand in the way of a good slandering though. Never has here.

You guys are so enrapt with personal vendetta that you can't even pick out the truth.

It's a real shame. Otherwise, really, I'm not sure what on earth I did to any of you to warrant this.

And yes, I won't be happy until Whaley's gone and yes, he's only been the GM for two years but he's also been the point man on personnel for 5 years. Naturally that doesn't account for anything here, but when he was in a far lesser role in Pittsburgh all of their good moves were because of him. That's the logic that you guys have reduced yourselves to.

It remains entertaining if nothing else.

feel free to find another board.

people disagree all the time on here. it's just your style that gets you in trouble. too meek to take the criticism when the results are poor, too fast to post idiotic posts like this when you have a sliver of an argument to stand on.

and your "oh, everyone takes it out on me" stance is pathetic.

[Fletch]

feel free to find another board.

people disagree all the time on here. it's just your style that gets you in trouble. too meek to take the criticism when the results are poor, too fast to post idiotic posts like this when you have a sliver of an argument to stand on.

and your "oh, everyone takes it out on me" stance is pathetic.

You obviously have a vendetta against me. There isn't a thing in any of my posts since Sunday that should set anyone off that doesn't have a mental problem. Seriously, pick out and find for us all the stuff that sets you off like this? Go ahead, I dare ya. Problem is that you can't without looking the mental ward candidate that you are.

Go ahead, find the offensive material and post it, here, now.

Talk about this "everyone takes it out on me" crap. Give it a rest.

[trapezeus]

it isn't a vendetta. its just that you want to be hailed as some hero for saying we paid too much. and no one disagrees with that. your then assertion that watkins isn't good and benjamin is is laughable. all you have is garbage number only analysis. everyone who watches the games sees a guy teams game plan around and another one that makes his catches late in big blow outs. vs the same opponents benjamin played worse.

you've even said, "why do we need watkins to have a big game against minny". This is perhaps the weakest of any of your idiotic defenses thus far.

we just want you to stop posting because you add nothing.

[casdhf]

18
Bills
5-4
--


Last Week: 18 Sammy Watkins finished with 27 receiving yards Sunday. The Bills are 0-4 this season when Watkins records 30 receiving yards or fewer and 5-0 when he has more than 30.

[Dr. Who]

18
Bills
5-4
--


Last Week: 18 Sammy Watkins finished with 27 receiving yards Sunday. The Bills are 0-4 this season when Watkins records 30 receiving yards or fewer and 5-0 when he has more than 30.

Interesting stat. I propose we open the game with a 31 yard pass to Watkins.

[trapezeus]

Interesting stat. I propose we open the game with a 31 yard pass to Watkins.

or four bubble screens when the DBs are playing 10 yards off him?

[Fletch]

it isn't a vendetta. its just that you want to be hailed as some hero for saying we paid too much. and no one disagrees with that. your then assertion that watkins isn't good and benjamin is is laughable. all you have is garbage number only analysis. everyone who watches the games sees a guy teams game plan around and another one that makes his catches late in big blow outs. vs the same opponents benjamin played worse.

you've even said, "why do we need watkins to have a big game against minny". This is perhaps the weakest of any of your idiotic defenses thus far.

we just want you to stop posting because you add nothing.

Here's an idea, put me on ignore.

A number of posters disagree with you. Don't know what else to tell ya other than if you want it your way, start your own forum.

This nonsense with you griping about every post of mine is absurd. I've gone out of my way to post in a very civil manner over the past several weeks and have done so to a T. Only you, Hammer, and justafan or whatever his name is are complaining. That's it, just the three of you.

[Fletch]

you've even said, "why do we need watkins to have a big game against minny". This is perhaps the weakest of any of your idiotic defenses thus far.

Idiotic? Really?

So what you're saying then is let's say that Watkins was out for that game, then you think that Minny's the better team and should have beaten us on the road here in Buffalo?

To believe that we'd have to believe that Jerick McKinnon, Asiata, and Felton are better than Jackson, Spiller, and Dixon.

That Bridgewater is better than Orton.

And that Greg Jennings, Jarius Wright, and Cordarelle Patterson are significantly better than Woods, Hogan, Chandler, and Williams.

And that the Vikes' D on the road is better than our D at home.

Or that some overall combination of those things would favor a Vikes win when Bridgewater hadn't even thrown an NFL TD prior to coming into that game. The only advantage in that entire list is Jennings and he had Bridgewater throwing which negates that.

You leave absolutely no possibility that you'd be wrong on that. I'm sorry to be the one to tell you this, but if we couldn't have won that game without Watkins then we're nowhere near a .500 team. Minny isn't so why would we be.

And you say that my position was idiotic.

That's what I call either being stupid or just plain dishonest. You can pick your poison on that one.

[trapezeus]

Idiotic? Really?

So what you're saying then is let's say that Watkins was out for that game, then you think that Minny's the better team and should have beaten us on the road here in Buffalo?

To believe that we'd have to believe that Jerick McKinnon, Asiata, and Felton are better than Jackson, Spiller, and Dixon.

That Bridgewater is better than Orton.

And that Greg Jennings, Jarius Wright, and Cordarelle Patterson are significantly better than Woods, Hogan, Chandler, and Williams.

And that the Vikes' D on the road is better than our D at home.

Or that some overall combination of those things would favor a Vikes win when Bridgewater hadn't even thrown an NFL TD prior to coming into that game. The only advantage in that entire list is Jennings and he had Bridgewater throwing which negates that.

You leave absolutely no possibility that you'd be wrong on that. I'm sorry to be the one to tell you this, but if we couldn't have won that game without Watkins then we're nowhere near a .500 team. Minny isn't so why would we be.

And you say that my position was idiotic.

That's what I call either being stupid or just plain dishonest. You can pick your poison on that one.

dishonest is your argument. you want to dismiss watkin's minny performance by saying "why did we need to have it come down to that?"

Well it did and he rose to the occassion. Why bemoan that? oh, cause you don't like the fact that he looks good because you took an extreme view to the point of not even enjoying his success. Furthermore if he didn't, you'd cite the slightly less crappy benjamin performance and pretend you were the super GM.

we all thought it was an expensive trade. but he's playing well. It is what it is. I would rather have him than the other players we were supposed to take at9. the TE at that spot that was supposed to be the best TE has not stood out. Mike Evans is largely invisible with a handful of catches.

And it's not a handful of people giving you a hard time. we all gave you a hard time. and the factyou disappear when you don't have an arguement to troll the board and then come back after a loss makes it pretty obvious who you are.

the other critical people on the board i tend to agree with, but they are actually happy when the team is proving them wrong.

i am with you. i don't think whaley is all that and i think russ brandon is largely the problem with this team. but guess what, the team is still in the playoff hunt and i'd rather pay attention to the things they can fix right now to be a better team than to talk about a trade i didn't like or a FO i don't have a ton of faith in. #billsfan.

Whereas you are #troll

[Fletch]

Well it did and he rose to the occassion. Why bemoan that?

If the difference between the Vikes being better than us and not is Watkins, then we're all way overrating this team.

It's ridiculous that a single player would mean so much when he hasn't meant that much in more than two games. Neither the Miami or Jets wins were in jeopardy had we not had Watkins either.

[trapezeus]

so in a game where both starting running backs leave, you think it's absurd the team needs to rely on its passing game?

[Generalissimus Gibby]

So what's the story behind Fletch's hatred for Sammy? Did Watkins steal his fiance, or what? I mean there is statistics, but man I half expect Pat Roberts to approve Fletch's statements about Watkins.

[Fletch]

So what's the story behind Fletch's hatred for Sammy? Did Watkins steal his fiance, or what? I mean there is statistics, but man I half expect Pat Roberts to approve Fletch's statements about Watkins.

No hatred. What's funny is that you guys repeatedly bash me for repeating myself, but despite having said about what, a hundred times maybe, really, that I just am not sold that Watkins is the best WR in this draft class and that I think we would have done better for the team had we taken the next best available like Benjamin or Beckum, and had our 1st and 4th in place for this upcoming draft still.

And yet you still don't know what my position has been and you have to lie and say that I hate the guy and imply that I think he sucks.

I just don't get it. Otherwise, why does that position, the real one, bother you so much? I want the team to be better than it is.

This incessant posting of things that I don't even believe is ridiculous and dishonest. I mean what, you'd think I went for your and trap's wife or something.

It's just football talk. Why do you guys get so upset?