1st Round QB's

[The King]

Here's a list of all QB's drafted in the first round since 2001.

The transition from college to pro at the QB is the most difficult to predict. For those of you who are calling for the head of Whaley take a look at this list. There's very few sure-fire QB's here.

2012: Luck (1), Griffin, Tannehill and Weeden
2011: Newton (1), Locker, Ponder, Gabbert
2010: Bradford (1), Tebow
2009: Stafford (1), Sanchez and Freeman
2008: Ryan, Flacco
2007: Russell (1), Quinn
2006: Young, Leinhart, Cutler
2005: Smith (1), Rodgers, Campbell
2004: Manning (1), Rivers, Roethlisberger, Losman
2003: Palmer (1), Leftwich, Grossman, Boller
2002: Carr (1), Harrington, Ramsey
2001: Vick (1)

35 players selected. 10 of them ended up as franchise QB's for teams that drafted them (28%). And that's giving the benefit of the doubt to Newton, and Vick. 5 of those were taken with the #1 overall pick. Which we didn't have.

The verdict is still out on EJ, it doesn't look great but at least we had the foresight to pick up an extra pick with the deal. If EJ doesn't pan it we still hit on the Kiko selection so this isn't a JP Losman type move where it sets the team back 5 years. He hedged his bet.

The 2013 QB class wasn't a strong one… but everyone wanted Fitzpatrick out. Fans were screaming for it. So he was let go. We signed Kolb and we were forced to take a QB in a rough draft class. Then we had to play him. We've seen the results first-hand.

I think his response to this season will be what ultimately decides his future. It's his job to turn the Watkins trade into a positive and it's his job to respond to this QB situation. He deserves that chance. To bring in a new regime will set us back another three years. This team is on the fence. It's one or two upgrades away.

[k-oneputt]

And that in a nutshell is what separates the good gm's from the poor gm's.
Making the right decisions.
Nobody said it is easy, but his team has had way to many misses since Polian left.

[better days]

Bringing in a new HC did not set back the Eagles, Cardinals or Chiefs.

You have to bring in someone BETTER than the person he replaced & the team will improve quickly.

[Albany,n.y.]

A new regime will not set the team back 3 years. Best example was Baltimore the 1st year Harbaugh came in. He was forced to start a rookie QB (who they had traded up to get) and made the playoffs with a 11-5 record after going 5-11 in 2007. They even made it to the AFC Championship game. Many new regimes have things completely turned around in 1-2 years. Look at what Parcells did to the worst teams in football when he coached the Jets & was in Miami's front office. Back in 1996 both expansion teams made their conference championship in their 2nd season. Only continued mismanagement can set a team back 3 years, new management over the years has proven quite effective.

Also-A lot of the GMs who picked the loser QBs in the 1st round got fired.

[trapezeus]

i like your point about hedging hte bet and not going all in on EJ. That's why i liked it.

but i do think the bills are very close to their ceiling right now. a .500 team with the aspiration to make the playoffs but to go out quietly.

i think a rebuild may cause the streak to roll on, but if done right, the ceiling will be pushed up to be a competitive playoff team. i want to be a playoff team badly as well, but once we do it, it will suck ot know that we don't really have a contender.

[The King]

It's not like Whaley whiffed and took the wrong guy.

[OpIv37]

Here's a list of all QB's drafted in the first round since 2001.

The transition from college to pro at the QB is the most difficult to predict. For those of you who are calling for the head of Whaley take a look at this list. There's very few sure-fire QB's here.

2012: Luck (1), Griffin, Tannehill and Weeden
2011: Newton (1), Locker, Ponder, Gabbert
2010: Bradford (1), Tebow
2009: Stafford (1), Sanchez and Freeman
2008: Ryan, Flacco
2007: Russell (1), Quinn
2006: Young, Leinhart, Cutler
2005: Smith (1), Rodgers, Campbell
2004: Manning (1), Rivers, Roethlisberger, Losman
2003: Palmer (1), Leftwich, Grossman, Boller
2002: Carr (1), Harrington, Ramsey
2001: Vick (1)

35 players selected. 10 of them ended up as franchise QB's for teams that drafted them (28%). And that's giving the benefit of the doubt to Newton, and Vick. 5 of those were taken with the #1 overall pick. Which we didn't have.

The verdict is still out on EJ, it doesn't look great but at least we had the foresight to pick up an extra pick with the deal. If EJ doesn't pan it we still hit on the Kiko selection so this isn't a JP Losman type move where it sets the team back 5 years. He hedged his bet.

The 2013 QB class wasn't a strong one… but everyone wanted Fitzpatrick out. Fans were screaming for it. So he was let go. We signed Kolb and we were forced to take a QB in a rough draft class. Then we had to play him. We've seen the results first-hand.

I think his response to this season will be what ultimately decides his future. It's his job to turn the Watkins trade into a positive and it's his job to respond to this QB situation. He deserves that chance. To bring in a new regime will set us back another three years. This team is on the fence. It's one or two upgrades away.

Here's the problem: by the time we get the one or two upgrades, this won't be the same team. Kyle Williams is getting old and Dareus and Hughes need extensions. OL and RB need to be upgraded, and of course QB. With no first round pick, it's gonna be 3 years or so before that hole can be filled, and in the meantime a plethora of new holes will arise.

So pick your poison: start the rebuild now and hopefully be competitive in 3 years, or wait two years grasping at straws that these guys will eventually get it right and be starting the rebuild in 2-3 years instead of finishing it.

Whaley did some good things- notably Preston Brown and Schwartz, maybe Henderson. But he made a bad pick with EJ then doubled down by using our best chance to replace him on a WR that's useless without a QB that can get him the ball. The EJ pick itself may not set the team back 3 years, but combined with the Warkins trade it absolutely sets is back 3 years.

That's an awful lot to overlook in the name of stability.

[Fletch]

Here's what I have a problem with, Manuel was not projected as a true 1st-round talent by many, only an obscure few thought he was.

There was plenty of info out there including an article that I've posted the link to a good 20 times and that even someone else did after the fact earlier this season that spelled out why Manuel was a long-shot to make a good NFL QB. It was written by people that had access to FSU's coaching staff and who saw every game he participated in. It even quoted Mike Mayock who's opinion aligned with theirs.

Manuel quite possibly could have been had in round 2 or maybe even 3. Between him, Barkley, and Smith, there was no clearcut first overall choice there, in fact, many had the others going before Manuel.

When as a GM you reach like that, you do not set yourself up to be given a mulligan the way that has been initiated here.

Factor in last season's trade up while rendering promises of playoffs and we have a verdict.

What's next, Whaley trading 2016's and 2017's 1st-round picks for one mid-1st-rounder this year? Or our 2nd, 3rd, and next 2016's 1st?

No thanks. Time for new blood.

[Mr. Miyagi]

IND - Luck (1)
WAS - Griffin, Campbell, Ramsey
MIA - Tannehill
CLE - Weeden, Quinn
CAR - Newton (1)
TEN - Locker, Young
MIN - Ponder
JAX - Gabbert, Leftwich
STL - Bradford (1)
DEN - Tebow, Cutler
DET - Stafford (1), Harrington
NYJ - Sanchez
TB - Freeman
ATL - Ryan, Vick
BAL - Flacco, Boller
OAK - Russell (1)
ARI - Leinhart
SF - Smith (1)
GB - Rodgers
NYG - Manning (1)
SD - Rivers
PIT - Roethlisberger
BUF - Losman
CIN - Palmer (1)
CHI - Grossman
HOU - Carr (1)

Some teams are awful at picking QBs. Washington, Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Cleveland suck at it. Cleveland with Johnny Football not on the list yet either. Buffalo has Losman and the jury is still out on EJ so I won't count that.

[Albany,n.y.]

It's not like Whaley whiffed and took the wrong guy.

Sure he did. When there's nobody worth drafting at the position, you don't create a need and then draft someone anyway, you wait a year and draft the right guy. A GM is not supposed to be so short sighted that he only looks at the current draft when he makes a decision. As far as everyone wanting Fitz out, I'll go back to Marv Levy's statement about that: When you start listening to the fans you end up sitting with them in the stands. I hope next year Marrone & Whaley are sitting right next to me when I go to a Bills game.

[Fletch]

Sure he did. When there's nobody worth drafting at the position, you don't create a need and then draft someone anyway, you wait a year and draft the right guy. A GM is not supposed to be so short sighted that he only looks at the current draft when he makes a decision.

Exactly. That's the basis for my answer when people challenge me as to "who I would have taken." You and I wouldn't be in that spot to begin with is the point.

[EDS]

Here's a list of all QB's drafted in the first round since 2001.

The transition from college to pro at the QB is the most difficult to predict. For those of you who are calling for the head of Whaley take a look at this list. There's very few sure-fire QB's here.

2012: Luck (1), Griffin, Tannehill and Weeden
2011: Newton (1), Locker, Ponder, Gabbert
2010: Bradford (1), Tebow
2009: Stafford (1), Sanchez and Freeman
2008: Ryan, Flacco
2007: Russell (1), Quinn
2006: Young, Leinhart, Cutler
2005: Smith (1), Rodgers, Campbell
2004: Manning (1), Rivers, Roethlisberger, Losman
2003: Palmer (1), Leftwich, Grossman, Boller
2002: Carr (1), Harrington, Ramsey
2001: Vick (1)

35 players selected. 10 of them ended up as franchise QB's for teams that drafted them (28%). And that's giving the benefit of the doubt to Newton, and Vick. 5 of those were taken with the #1 overall pick. Which we didn't have.

The verdict is still out on EJ, it doesn't look great but at least we had the foresight to pick up an extra pick with the deal. If EJ doesn't pan it we still hit on the Kiko selection so this isn't a JP Losman type move where it sets the team back 5 years. He hedged his bet.

The 2013 QB class wasn't a strong one… but everyone wanted Fitzpatrick out. Fans were screaming for it. So he was let go. We signed Kolb and we were forced to take a QB in a rough draft class. Then we had to play him. We've seen the results first-hand.

I think his response to this season will be what ultimately decides his future. It's his job to turn the Watkins trade into a positive and it's his job to respond to this QB situation. He deserves that chance. To bring in a new regime will set us back another three years. This team is on the fence. It's one or two upgrades away.

How many of the GM's that picked non-bolded QB's from your list above got fired within two years after making those picks?

[Fletch]

How many of the GM's that picked non-bolded QB's from your list above got fired within two years after making those picks?

How many of those GMs reached out of round by 1 to 4 rounds to get those QBs?

The very critical element of discussion that you're ignoring is the fact that just about all, if not all outright, of those non-bolded QBs were projected by the vast majority of draft experts to have been legitimate 1st-round picks, quite often very high ones in fact. If anything, how Russell and Young turned out should have been more of a flag for the team than anything.

QB is the toughest spot to nail down, that's common knowledge, but making the job harder and the chances even more unlikely, is reaching well out of round and perhaps into several rounds down to pick one in the mid-1st.

No one's on Whaley for picking a QB per se. What they're on him for is for reaching for one that wasn't viewed as a consensus 1st-round pick or even close to one. There's a huge difference there in your argument.

Here's the thing, even Whaley says so himself that his future in Buffalo came down to that pick. If you haven't viewed it yet, view the video in my sig.

You're arguing with Whaley himself on this who fully understood that if he whiffed on Manuel then it would be his ass.

[Fletch]

By the way, whether he's here or not he's also going to be taking similar heat for trading what he traded to get Watkins, and Watkins is good, Manuel stinks and won't ever be more than a backup.

[better days]

Here's the problem: by the time we get the one or two upgrades, this won't be the same team. Kyle Williams is getting old and Dareus and Hughes need extensions. OL and RB need to be upgraded, and of course QB. With no first round pick, it's gonna be 3 years or so before that hole can be filled, and in the meantime a plethora of new holes will arise.

So pick your poison: start the rebuild now and hopefully be competitive in 3 years, or wait two years grasping at straws that these guys will eventually get it right and be starting the rebuild in 2-3 years instead of finishing it.

Whaley did some good things- notably Preston Brown and Schwartz, maybe Henderson. But he made a bad pick with EJ then doubled down by using our best chance to replace him on a WR that's useless without a QB that can get him the ball. The EJ pick itself may not set the team back 3 years, but combined with the Warkins trade it absolutely sets is back 3 years.

That's an awful lot to overlook in the name of stability.

Kyle Williams is 31 years old.

If he avoids a major injury, he could easily play another 6 years at a high level.

I expect this front office to keep Darius & Hughes long term or I will be on board with firing them all.

[OpIv37]

Kyle Williams is 31 years old.

If he avoids a major injury, he could easily play another 6 years at a high level.

I expect this front office to keep Darius & Hughes long term or I will be on board with firing them all.

He could, or his knees could give out at 33 from crashing his 300 lb frame into another 300 lb frame for the last decade. Some dt's last long- most don't.

And I think they want to lock up Hughes and Dareus long term but whether they have the cap space to do it or whether those guys want to stay is a different story.

[better days]

He could, or his knees could give out at 33 from crashing his 300 lb frame into another 300 lb frame for the last decade. Some dt's last long- most don't.

And I think they want to lock up Hughes and Dareus long term but whether they have the cap space to do it or whether those guys want to stay is a different story.

The Bills will have the cap space, a lot of dead money is coming off the books after this year.

[WagonCircler]

It's not like Whaley whiffed and took the wrong guy.

Essentially, he did. He's a s much as said so.

But then he totally took ownership of the pick by deciding that EJ was good enough to go into this season without drafting a QB, instead misjudging what he had into Tuel and Lewis as well.

He whiffed TWICE on EJ, and on his backups.

He didn't just whiff. He whiffed like Tin Cup on the water trap hole.

He is clueless when it comes to the most important position on the filed.

That spells doom.

[The Jokeman]

Here's the problem: by the time we get the one or two upgrades, this won't be the same team. Kyle Williams is getting old and Dareus and Hughes need extensions. OL and RB need to be upgraded, and of course QB. With no first round pick, it's gonna be 3 years or so before that hole can be filled, and in the meantime a plethora of new holes will arise.

So pick your poison: start the rebuild now and hopefully be competitive in 3 years, or wait two years grasping at straws that these guys will eventually get it right and be starting the rebuild in 2-3 years instead of finishing it.

Whaley did some good things- notably Preston Brown and Schwartz, maybe Henderson. But he made a bad pick with EJ then doubled down by using our best chance to replace him on a WR that's useless without a QB that can get him the ball. The EJ pick itself may not set the team back 3 years, but combined with the Warkins trade it absolutely sets is back 3 years.

That's an awful lot to overlook in the name of stability.

My biggest issue wasn't the Manuel pick but moreso when we took him. I don't think we have the players around him to make EJ or any QB to excel. I know everyone clamors that franchise QBs make everyone else around them better. I;ll agree with that when it comes to veteran guys but to me young guys need more talent around them to succeed. I mean is RG III really a worse payer since his injury or has the talent/scheme around him not fit him as well? Also some of the guys you bolded in terms of franchise QBs had much better casts around them then EJ had when he came here. Personally my plan of attack for this offseason is keep as much of this D in tact. Bring in a starting caliber TE I mentioned guys like Jordan Cameron and Julius Thomas before another guy that might be out there is Jermaine Gresham. Add a veteran OG to add to the mix. Then with our top pick either take a quality OG prospect, maybe a D-lineman to show up some depth or maybe a QB depending what's out there. I really don't think the Watkins pick has set us back as many included me have eluded too in the past. Assuming we can shore up some holes and not avoid any this offseason.

[The Jokeman]

Who knows with Orton still a question we might also see the Bills pursue a guy like Sanchez, Locker, Ponder or Gabbert this offseason. At the very least they should be a good backup but could do a Chris Miller impression and be good for one year when he has a good surrounding cast around him. Or maybe we draft a QB like Garrett Grayson who becomes Andy Daltonesque.

[YardRat]

Personally, I think you're giving Ryan and Flacco too much benefit of the doubt also. Matty hasn't won anything yet, And Flacco owes about three quarters of his new contract and his ring to the defense and Boldin.

[djjimkelly]

Who knows with Orton still a question we might also see the Bills pursue a guy like Sanchez, Locker, Ponder or Gabbert this offseason. At the very least they should be a good backup but could do a Chris Miller impression and be good for one year when he has a good surrounding cast around him. Or maybe we draft a QB like Garrett Grayson who becomes Andy Daltonesque.

whats funny is i dont know know why i keep having the feeling jake locker will be a bill next year just havent wanted to post it and catch the flack hat is coming now

[trapezeus]

Here's the problem: by the time we get the one or two upgrades, this won't be the same team. Kyle Williams is getting old and Dareus and Hughes need extensions. OL and RB need to be upgraded, and of course QB. With no first round pick, it's gonna be 3 years or so before that hole can be filled, and in the meantime a plethora of new holes will arise.

So pick your poison: start the rebuild now and hopefully be competitive in 3 years, or wait two years grasping at straws that these guys will eventually get it right and be starting the rebuild in 2-3 years instead of finishing it.

Whaley did some good things- notably Preston Brown and Schwartz, maybe Henderson. But he made a bad pick with EJ then doubled down by using our best chance to replace him on a WR that's useless without a QB that can get him the ball. The EJ pick itself may not set the team back 3 years, but combined with the Warkins trade it absolutely sets is back 3 years.

That's an awful lot to overlook in the name of stability.

it seems a lot like the 2010 sabres. not that great, but seemingly aspirational for a playoff spot. the thinking was, let's just give them some help and see if that core can do it. and it failed. the core wasn't that talented.

for this bills team, i think the d is largely that talented, but the contracts coming up will make it impossible to keep.

a tear down will mean that hopefully this build will be done with craftsmanship and not the same idiots that keep getting it wrong.

[tonyc37]

I disagree.Anytime you are drafting in the top ten and miss on your first round pick it sets your team back.Teams that win consistently know how to draft.The one thing that irks me about the Bills is if there isn't a guy their they don't move very often.

- - - Updated - - -

I disagree.Anytime you are drafting in the top ten and miss on your first round pick it sets your team back.Teams that win consistently know how to draft.The one thing that irks me about the Bills is if there isn't a guy their they don't move very often.