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Its been a long time since the team has been good enough to inspire me to start a thread about ~anything~ this team does. But I keep coming back to the offense and it's issues over and over again in my head. I'm not going to go too deeply into the passing scheme this team runs, mostly because i don't know a lot about how Marrone has the passing attack set up. That and i've not seen a lot from the passing attack I don't see elsewhere. What really has caught my eye is the Running game and the coaching of that running game
The Running Game:
Generally there are two schools of thought in modern football about the running attack. The traditional school of thought is to run to set up the pass. People say this a lot, but sometimes i get the feeling they don't know what it means. What this means is by running, or the threat of you running either by formation, personnel, or play action, you cause the defense to "cheat" toward defending a run, and open up options in the passing game. Notice, i don't speak about successfully running, or running a certain amount of time. I'm simply speaking about doing enough in your running game to open up the defense to allow easy completions and gains in the passing attack. That is running to set up the pass. Passing to set up the run is the opposite. It's doing enough in your passing game that you, either by formation, personnel or even down and distance open up plays in your running game for easy yards. Chan Gailey passed to set up the run, and as a result we were a top 10 rushing attack every year he was here. We certainly weren't a run first team, nor were we a power running team, but he had a brilliant feel for when to take advantage of a defense with a surprise rushing play. Both methods work only if the coaching staff and quarterback can take advantage of looks in the defense, and this is where we are failing right now.
Currently the buffalo bills do not pass to set up the run, nor do they run to set up the pass. They don't have enough dedication to either pass or run to set each other up, they don't pass or run well enough to cause this type of adjustment by a defense.
It looks to me like since CJ and FJ went down with injury we're being coached to pass to set up the run (prior to thier injuries we certainly were a run to set up the pass offense). at least that's what the play calling looks like to me. we don't run a lot of play action, nor do we do we show any real dedication to the running game even when it's working. The amusing thing is, in the early part of the season, we were getting the advantages of a run to set up the pass look, due to the coaching staff's reluctance to expose EJ. When Orton came in he took advantage of all the openings opposing defenses gave him due to that "run to set up the pass" mindset. However, after CJ and FJ went down teams abandoned all pretense of defending the run against us, and the offense came apart.
Now it looks like i'm defending the playcalling a bit, I am not. because even before CJ and FJ went down, the playcalling was questionable, and likely far less effective then it could have been. I'll discuss the theory here
Run to set up the pass: playcalling primer
in order to properly set up a defense you must show dedication to running the ball.
-This means in 3rd and short you better call running plays at least half or more of the time.
-this means on 2nd and long you run the ball to make it a 3rd and manageable
-this means you follow up a good run with another run regardless of situation
-this means if the defense can't stop your running back from gaining 4 yards a pop, you keep feeding him until they do
-this means in 4 down territory you RUN on 3rd down
-this means in short yardage you run INSIDE the tackles, not outside, not pass
in order to take advantage of what you've done to the defense you need to
-call play action on first down inside the red zone
-call play action on 3rd down and short 1/2 the time
-only call a straight up pass in obvious passing downs (3rd and long), and have a draw play audible available to your QB even in that situation (no empty backfield)
-pass after play action against 8 men fronts
this is all "high percentage" football. it's offensive coaching 101, you see this type of by the book unimaginative play calling at EVERY level of football. It's common because it works... eventually... over time. You won't surprise the dumbest player on the opposing defense with this type of play calling. They all know what to expect. Which is why its so important to SHOW them what they expect. running to set up the pass requires dedication to boring, by the book, paint by numbers coaching. It works better, the better you run the ball. BUT it STILL can work pretty well even if you don't run well. The patriots pulled this number on us in the first game against us in their halftime adjustments. They never really ran the ball effectively against us that game, but they ran enough they made their play action work on the linebackers, which then gave brady all the room he needed to find open guys behind them. You don't need to run well to make it work, you just need to dedicate yourself to it. The bills sorta did this when EJ was playing under center, and they sorta did it when Orton came in up until FJ and CJ got hurt, that said this coaching staff has "tells" in it's playcalling that are fatal to being truely effective at running to set up the pass. One such is their complete unwillingness to run on 3rd and 2-4. if you won't run on 3rd and short, you'll never convince a team you're dedicated to running the ball. and the bills simply don't run on 3rd and 2-4yards
Passing to set up the run: playcalling primer
-this type of offense typically uses playaction just to hold up the passrush, there is no threat of an actual run to scare the linebackers. It also uses playaction to "detect" when defenses are no longer respecting the run
-pass in obvious running situations
-run to slow up the passrush (again, situational)
-run to take advantage of man defense and blitzes
-run to take advantage of pass defense personnel (dime coverages)
generally it's a situational and personnel driven play call. This requires a passing game that's dangerous enough that defenses respect it via personal or scheme. often times these are designed audibles that are made at the line of scrimmage. That said, it usually takes a little more "feel" for the "flow" of the game and personnel to call this type of running play. I gave credit to chan galley earlier, because he literally was a master of passing to set up the run. He got defenses into some horrible situations and then popped a run with CJ or FJ that would look childishly simple. The main downside to this type of running attack is it can't be depended on to run out the clock at the end of a football game, as it's the rare pass first team that has a good enough mauling type offensive line to run the ball when it's expected. Still there are plenty of teams in the league that would qualify as a pass first type of team... the Packers and Broncos definitely would be a couple of them. The Bills have been operating as a true "pass first" team since CJ and FJ got hurt. Unfortunately, it's not working. For one, we don't run well enough when we do run to make teams who sell out against our passing attack suffer for it. secondly, teams are playing a lot more deep zone defense against us then they used to, and unfortunately, it's pulled all the electricity out of the passing game for reasons i'll outline next
The Passing Attack
I said at the beginning i wouldn't get too much into the problems in our passing game because i wasn't familiar enough with the system we're running. However i'll point out some issues i've noticed.
-No separation: we have a group of wide receivers who don't get open fast, and when they do get open they don't get a whole lot of separation. Watkins mostly because he doesn't run sharp routs, Woods and Hogan simply aren't that fast.
-Poor timing: the biggest error i've seen from orton is his atrocious timing with the WR corps. Sometimes it doesn't matter all that much, particularly against a bad defense, but it REALLY matters against a good defense. He simply doesn't get the ball out of his hand on time, often double clutching, because he doesn't trust throwing the ball at a WR who's not looking at him. I suspect this is mostly due to the late arrival to the team, but it's a clear problem that hasn't improved as the season goes on. He has the least trust in Watkins and Chandler, i've noticed he hesitates the least with Hogan... likely because hogan was so deep in the depth chart at the start of the year he was the main WR he worked with in practice.
-poor blitz pickups: this is both the o-line's fault and a result of the injuries at RB, this has to be the worse season i've seen e.woods have in the nfl. The line has looked better since Ubrick and Pears became starters at guard, but it's still a work in progress.
-bad rout running - this is likely the other source of Orton's hesitation. the WRs in general, watkins especially seem to be running the wrong routs REGULARLY. it has cost orton a few interceptions and intentional grounding penalties... including an intentional grounding/safety, where Watkins was supposed to run a 10 yard out, and turned it into a 15 yard out... causing orton to be called for intentional grounding when he threw it early. Had watkins run the rout as called, he would have been close enough there would have been no penalty. There have been other situations similar to this caused by all of the wide receivers at some point in time.
Conclusion:
Many of the problems plaguing the Bills offense are COACHING and EXPERIENCE problems. Rookies will be rookies, so i am not concerned about Watkins' lack of timing with Orton, or him running the wrong or a poor rout. Woods and Hogan are both young as well, and this is only the 2nd year in the offense for both. They don't make the same mistakes Watkins does for the most part so i consider that just part of the growing pains with a young receiving corps. The QB is very new to the team by NFL standards, so his lack of timing with the WRs is to be expected, as is his lack of trust. the biggest personnel issues would be the lack of a dependable threat at Tight End, the sorry shape of the inside of the line... and the questionable play calling of the coaching staff.
The Running Game:
Generally there are two schools of thought in modern football about the running attack. The traditional school of thought is to run to set up the pass. People say this a lot, but sometimes i get the feeling they don't know what it means. What this means is by running, or the threat of you running either by formation, personnel, or play action, you cause the defense to "cheat" toward defending a run, and open up options in the passing game. Notice, i don't speak about successfully running, or running a certain amount of time. I'm simply speaking about doing enough in your running game to open up the defense to allow easy completions and gains in the passing attack. That is running to set up the pass. Passing to set up the run is the opposite. It's doing enough in your passing game that you, either by formation, personnel or even down and distance open up plays in your running game for easy yards. Chan Gailey passed to set up the run, and as a result we were a top 10 rushing attack every year he was here. We certainly weren't a run first team, nor were we a power running team, but he had a brilliant feel for when to take advantage of a defense with a surprise rushing play. Both methods work only if the coaching staff and quarterback can take advantage of looks in the defense, and this is where we are failing right now.
Currently the buffalo bills do not pass to set up the run, nor do they run to set up the pass. They don't have enough dedication to either pass or run to set each other up, they don't pass or run well enough to cause this type of adjustment by a defense.
It looks to me like since CJ and FJ went down with injury we're being coached to pass to set up the run (prior to thier injuries we certainly were a run to set up the pass offense). at least that's what the play calling looks like to me. we don't run a lot of play action, nor do we do we show any real dedication to the running game even when it's working. The amusing thing is, in the early part of the season, we were getting the advantages of a run to set up the pass look, due to the coaching staff's reluctance to expose EJ. When Orton came in he took advantage of all the openings opposing defenses gave him due to that "run to set up the pass" mindset. However, after CJ and FJ went down teams abandoned all pretense of defending the run against us, and the offense came apart.
Now it looks like i'm defending the playcalling a bit, I am not. because even before CJ and FJ went down, the playcalling was questionable, and likely far less effective then it could have been. I'll discuss the theory here
Run to set up the pass: playcalling primer
in order to properly set up a defense you must show dedication to running the ball.
-This means in 3rd and short you better call running plays at least half or more of the time.
-this means on 2nd and long you run the ball to make it a 3rd and manageable
-this means you follow up a good run with another run regardless of situation
-this means if the defense can't stop your running back from gaining 4 yards a pop, you keep feeding him until they do
-this means in 4 down territory you RUN on 3rd down
-this means in short yardage you run INSIDE the tackles, not outside, not pass
in order to take advantage of what you've done to the defense you need to
-call play action on first down inside the red zone
-call play action on 3rd down and short 1/2 the time
-only call a straight up pass in obvious passing downs (3rd and long), and have a draw play audible available to your QB even in that situation (no empty backfield)
-pass after play action against 8 men fronts
this is all "high percentage" football. it's offensive coaching 101, you see this type of by the book unimaginative play calling at EVERY level of football. It's common because it works... eventually... over time. You won't surprise the dumbest player on the opposing defense with this type of play calling. They all know what to expect. Which is why its so important to SHOW them what they expect. running to set up the pass requires dedication to boring, by the book, paint by numbers coaching. It works better, the better you run the ball. BUT it STILL can work pretty well even if you don't run well. The patriots pulled this number on us in the first game against us in their halftime adjustments. They never really ran the ball effectively against us that game, but they ran enough they made their play action work on the linebackers, which then gave brady all the room he needed to find open guys behind them. You don't need to run well to make it work, you just need to dedicate yourself to it. The bills sorta did this when EJ was playing under center, and they sorta did it when Orton came in up until FJ and CJ got hurt, that said this coaching staff has "tells" in it's playcalling that are fatal to being truely effective at running to set up the pass. One such is their complete unwillingness to run on 3rd and 2-4. if you won't run on 3rd and short, you'll never convince a team you're dedicated to running the ball. and the bills simply don't run on 3rd and 2-4yards
Passing to set up the run: playcalling primer
-this type of offense typically uses playaction just to hold up the passrush, there is no threat of an actual run to scare the linebackers. It also uses playaction to "detect" when defenses are no longer respecting the run
-pass in obvious running situations
-run to slow up the passrush (again, situational)
-run to take advantage of man defense and blitzes
-run to take advantage of pass defense personnel (dime coverages)
generally it's a situational and personnel driven play call. This requires a passing game that's dangerous enough that defenses respect it via personal or scheme. often times these are designed audibles that are made at the line of scrimmage. That said, it usually takes a little more "feel" for the "flow" of the game and personnel to call this type of running play. I gave credit to chan galley earlier, because he literally was a master of passing to set up the run. He got defenses into some horrible situations and then popped a run with CJ or FJ that would look childishly simple. The main downside to this type of running attack is it can't be depended on to run out the clock at the end of a football game, as it's the rare pass first team that has a good enough mauling type offensive line to run the ball when it's expected. Still there are plenty of teams in the league that would qualify as a pass first type of team... the Packers and Broncos definitely would be a couple of them. The Bills have been operating as a true "pass first" team since CJ and FJ got hurt. Unfortunately, it's not working. For one, we don't run well enough when we do run to make teams who sell out against our passing attack suffer for it. secondly, teams are playing a lot more deep zone defense against us then they used to, and unfortunately, it's pulled all the electricity out of the passing game for reasons i'll outline next
The Passing Attack
I said at the beginning i wouldn't get too much into the problems in our passing game because i wasn't familiar enough with the system we're running. However i'll point out some issues i've noticed.
-No separation: we have a group of wide receivers who don't get open fast, and when they do get open they don't get a whole lot of separation. Watkins mostly because he doesn't run sharp routs, Woods and Hogan simply aren't that fast.
-Poor timing: the biggest error i've seen from orton is his atrocious timing with the WR corps. Sometimes it doesn't matter all that much, particularly against a bad defense, but it REALLY matters against a good defense. He simply doesn't get the ball out of his hand on time, often double clutching, because he doesn't trust throwing the ball at a WR who's not looking at him. I suspect this is mostly due to the late arrival to the team, but it's a clear problem that hasn't improved as the season goes on. He has the least trust in Watkins and Chandler, i've noticed he hesitates the least with Hogan... likely because hogan was so deep in the depth chart at the start of the year he was the main WR he worked with in practice.
-poor blitz pickups: this is both the o-line's fault and a result of the injuries at RB, this has to be the worse season i've seen e.woods have in the nfl. The line has looked better since Ubrick and Pears became starters at guard, but it's still a work in progress.
-bad rout running - this is likely the other source of Orton's hesitation. the WRs in general, watkins especially seem to be running the wrong routs REGULARLY. it has cost orton a few interceptions and intentional grounding penalties... including an intentional grounding/safety, where Watkins was supposed to run a 10 yard out, and turned it into a 15 yard out... causing orton to be called for intentional grounding when he threw it early. Had watkins run the rout as called, he would have been close enough there would have been no penalty. There have been other situations similar to this caused by all of the wide receivers at some point in time.
Conclusion:
Many of the problems plaguing the Bills offense are COACHING and EXPERIENCE problems. Rookies will be rookies, so i am not concerned about Watkins' lack of timing with Orton, or him running the wrong or a poor rout. Woods and Hogan are both young as well, and this is only the 2nd year in the offense for both. They don't make the same mistakes Watkins does for the most part so i consider that just part of the growing pains with a young receiving corps. The QB is very new to the team by NFL standards, so his lack of timing with the WRs is to be expected, as is his lack of trust. the biggest personnel issues would be the lack of a dependable threat at Tight End, the sorry shape of the inside of the line... and the questionable play calling of the coaching staff.
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