Buffalo's playoff "chances"

[OpIv37]

I just looked at the standings.


The only way we can win the division is if NE loses out and we win out, and we know that's about as likely has me simultaneously winning the lottery, getting struck by lightning and getting blown by Gisele while Tom Brady gets his ass kicked by Jon Jones just because he's Tom Brady.

There is one 8-4 team and 6 7-5 teams in the WC hunt (not counting div leaders), counting us. We have head to head tiebreaker over Cleveland and I'm not sure about Pitt or Balt because their conf records are as bad as ours. The 8-4 team (SD) and the other 2 7-5 teams (KC, Miami) have one or more tiebreakers on us.

Houston is 6-6 but has the head to head tiebreaker on us, so they would get in over us if they end up with the same record.

So, we have to get a game ahead of KC and Miami or 2 games ahead of SD, and stay ahead of Balt, Pitt and KC. And this is assuming the div leaders don't change. Cincy or Denver could give us problems if they relinquish the div lead (possibly Indy too but that seems unlikely since they have a 3 game lead with only 4 left).

And we have to do this while playing Denver, GB and NE, and traveling to Oak.

Ouch.

I don't want to take away from what the team has done this season. The O has been inconsistent, but the D has been spectacular and, even if they lose out, they've won more games than they have in a long time. I can't even remember the last time we had a winning record in Dec- 2004 maybe? And despite the long odds, it's the most realistic playoff shot we've had this late in a season since 2004. But those losses to KC and Miami really killed our playoff chances.

[stuckincincy]

Root for all current AFC division leaders.

[YardRat]

I must have missed something...why do we have to get 2 games ahead of San Diego?

[OpIv37]

I must have missed something...why do we have to get 2 games ahead of San Diego?

They're a game ahead of us and have a head to head tiebreaker, so that's 2 games. Confusing phrasing on my part- we don't have to get two games ahead of them but we do have to make up 2 games on them if KC or Miami pulls away.

[BillsImpossible]

The Chargers remaining schedule is more daunting than the Bills.

New England, Denver, at San Francisco, at Kansas City.

Ouch.

[YardRat]

Ok, got it. Thanks for clarifying.

[Cntrygal]

Hey Op!

I'm in the middle of final projects and prepping for finals... Can you just remind me who I need to cheer for each week? :D

[BillsImpossible]

They're a game ahead of us and have a head to head tiebreaker, so that's 2 games. Confusing phrasing on my part- we don't have to get two games ahead of them but we do have to make up 2 games on them if KC or Miami pulls away.

Not worried about Miami after watching them barely beat the Jets last night.

Kansas City's remaining schedule is interesting.

at Arizona, Oakland, at Pittsburgh, San Diego.

I think the Bills will be in hunt for a Wild Card birth in week 17.

[Don't Panic]

They're a game ahead of us and have a head to head tiebreaker, so that's 2 games. Confusing phrasing on my part- we don't have to get two games ahead of them but we do have to make up 2 games on them if KC or Miami pulls away.

head to head doesn't count the same way if three or more teams are tied...

[BillsImpossible]

head to head doesn't count the same way if three or more teams are tied...

If 4 teams have the same record at let's say 9-7, 2 teams get in because of their better divisional records.

Bills are 3-2 in the division and will finish 3-3 at worse if they lose to the Pats.

The Chiefs are currently 1-3 in their division.

Chargers are 2-2.

Ravens are 2-3.

[The Jokeman]

Root for all current AFC division leaders.

Except the weeks we play them.

[The Jokeman]

head to head doesn't count the same way if three or more teams are tied...

Baltimore is the key to the Bills future. if somehow the Bills can be tied with Baltimore and/or Cleveland with another AFC North team for the final playoff spot we have a shot otherwise we're out.

[The Jokeman]

I just looked at the standings.


The only way we can win the division is if NE loses out and we win out, and we know that's about as likely has me simultaneously winning the lottery, getting struck by lightning and getting blown by Gisele while Tom Brady gets his ass kicked by Jon Jones just because he's Tom Brady.

There is one 8-4 team and 6 7-5 teams in the WC hunt (not counting div leaders), counting us. We have head to head tiebreaker over Cleveland and I'm not sure about Pitt or Balt because their conf records are as bad as ours. The 8-4 team (SD) and the other 2 7-5 teams (KC, Miami) have one or more tiebreakers on us.

Houston is 6-6 but has the head to head tiebreaker on us, so they would get in over us if they end up with the same record.

So, we have to get a game ahead of KC and Miami or 2 games ahead of SD, and stay ahead of Balt, Pitt and KC. And this is assuming the div leaders don't change. Cincy or Denver could give us problems if they relinquish the div lead (possibly Indy too but that seems unlikely since they have a 3 game lead with only 4 left).

And we have to do this while playing Denver, GB and NE, and traveling to Oak.

Ouch.

I don't want to take away from what the team has done this season. The O has been inconsistent, but the D has been spectacular and, even if they lose out, they've won more games than they have in a long time. I can't even remember the last time we had a winning record in Dec- 2004 maybe? And despite the long odds, it's the most realistic playoff shot we've had this late in a season since 2004. But those losses to KC and Miami really killed our playoff chances.

Week by week man, I mean a couple of weeks do you think anyone would have expected the Rams to beat the Broncos? Also if look at the Broncos other losses it seems like their running game was bottled up and say what you want but the way we stopped the Browns running attack this past week was a good sign as think they have a much stronger running attack than the Broncos. Of course the Broncos will ultimately live and die by Peyton, let's hope Julius Thomas is out another week and we can find away to Emmanuel Sanders as to me he's the critical part of their passing game with Thomas out. Sure Demarious Thomas and Welker are scary too but I think Manning goes to Sanders more than not to be the game changer.

[OpIv37]

Week by week man, I mean a couple of weeks do you think anyone would have expected the Rams to beat the Broncos? Also if look at the Broncos other losses it seems like their running game was bottled up and say what you want but the way we stopped the Browns running attack this past week was a good sign as think they have a much stronger running attack than the Broncos. Of course the Broncos will ultimately live and die by Peyton, let's hope Julius Thomas is out another week and we can find away to Emmanuel Sanders as to me he's the critical part of their passing game with Thomas out. Sure Demarious Thomas and Welker are scary too but I think Manning goes to Sanders more than not to be the game changer.

Well yeah. What's done is done. All they can do is go hard every week until they are mathematically eliminated. And even after that, with no first round pick there'd is nothing to gain by losing.

We can hope for the best, but the chances are very remote.

[The Jokeman]

Well yeah. What's done is done. All they can do is go hard every week until they are mathematically eliminated. And even after that, with no first round pick there'd is nothing to gain by losing.

We can hope for the best, but the chances are very remote.

Remote indeed and I thinking winning will do a lot to boost this team's morale and know that they can win. As I said it this preseason for the first time for me in a long time it feels like we're actually building something here. Of course if we ***** it up and let Hughes go as an UFA in favor for keeping Spiller around I might have issues. But I don't Whaley to me has been pretty good thus far as a GM even when I doubted him when we lost Byrd and traded up for Watkins.

[BillsImpossible]

Well yeah. What's done is done. All they can do is go hard every week until they are mathematically eliminated. And even after that, with no first round pick there'd is nothing to gain by losing.

We can hope for the best, but the chances are very remote.

It's going to go all the way down to the end of week 17.

[OpIv37]

It's going to go all the way down to the end of week 17.

I hope not.... That will be a 45-3 demolition

[imbondz]

I'll be shocked if were still in it by last game if season. Prepare for a 7-9 or 8-8 finish. That's more in step with reality

[BertSquirtgum]

Not worried about Miami after watching them barely beat the Jets last night.

Kansas City's remaining schedule is interesting.

at Arizona, Oakland, at Pittsburgh, San Diego.

I think the Bills will be in hunt for a Wild Card birth in week 17.

Puff puff pass. Don't hog it all to yourself.

[Ginger Vitis]

I hope not.... That will be a 45-3 demolition

You 're always predicting these 40points+ differential victories the Pats will hang on the Bills.. You were right in 2007 when the Pats beat the Bills on Sunday night in Buffalo but since then you're predictions have not come true..

[BillsOverDolphins]

We have to win our last 3 games...hopefully we get a 2nd-string Patriots team. The Denver game will be a massacre--realists know this.

[BertSquirtgum]

We have to win our last 3 games...hopefully we get a 2nd-string Patriots team. The Denver game will be a massacre--realists know this.

Most likely. Can't Hackett will call a horrible game like usual.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Mr. Pink has said that we can really only afford to lose the Green Bay game and still get in. While losing to GB hurts us the least, any loss in the last 4 effectively puts us at less than a 50% chance of playoffs.

In essence, our playoffs started already.

[Meathead]

lose to denver and its all over but the math

[Meathead]

sucks so freakin hard they gave back the win to kc. id like to crazy glue bryce browns hands together

[Don't Panic]

I hope not.... That will be a 45-3 demolition

If we're getting smoked that bad in week 17 then why are you starting a thread about playoff chances? You are the King of Billszone negativity. There is no competition.

[Don't Panic]

sucks so freakin hard they gave back the win to kc. id like to crazy glue bryce browns hands together

Such a fluke play. It would hurt even more if we hadn't squeaked out three games against the NFC North. All things considered, we're probably right where we deserve to be given the totality of how we've played.

[chris66]

If 4 teams have the same record at let's say 9-7, 2 teams get in because of their better divisional records.

Bills are 3-2 in the division and will finish 3-3 at worse if they lose to the Pats.

The Chiefs are currently 1-3 in their division.

Chargers are 2-2.

Ravens are 2-3.

Division record only counts for teams in the same division. Outside of that is conference record.

[OpIv37]

You 're always predicting these 40points+ differential victories the Pats will hang on the Bills.. You were right in 2007 when the Pats beat the Bills on Sunday night in Buffalo but since then you're predictions have not come true..
Yeah well they still beat us every time except once and most of the games have not been close.

[Forward_Lateral]

The Bills don't need to win out and the Pats lose out. The Bills can win the division at 9-7 or 10-6 conceivably. It's a long shot, but it's possible.

[OpIv37]

If we're getting smoked that bad in week 17 then why are you starting a thread about playoff chances? You are the King of Billszone negativity. There is no competition.

I started a thread about playoff chances because we are not mathematically eliminated. There is nothing positive or negative about what I said... it's reality. It is what it is. You assuming that it's negative because of who said it is your bias, not mine.

[Night Train]

Chances are...SLIM.

It is what it is.

[trapezeus]

i just hope the players aren't thinking like this. they just need to find a way to beat the broncos and get to the packers game.

[Pinkerton Security]

It's going to go all the way down to the end of week 17.

Did someone say Willie Parker (even before he was any good)? ugh...

[Ingtar33]

They're a game ahead of us and have a head to head tiebreaker, so that's 2 games. Confusing phrasing on my part- we don't have to get two games ahead of them but we do have to make up 2 games on them if KC or Miami pulls away.

head to head doesn't matter if there are more then 2 teams tied.

so if buffalo, miami, san diego and kc all tie, though we've lost to all of them, the first tiebreaker is conference record. so what we want are 3 way ties with teams we lost to, which we hold a better conference record then.

[chris66]

head to head doesn't matter if there are more then 2 teams tied.

so if buffalo, miami, san diego and kc all tie, though we've lost to all of them, the first tiebreaker is conference record. so what we want are 3 way ties with teams we lost to, which we hold a better conference record then.
No. The first tie breaker is miami over buffalo better division record. It then goes to conference record.
You have to break division ties first and thats head to head then division record

[Fletch]

We have to win our last 3 games...hopefully we get a 2nd-string Patriots team. The Denver game will be a massacre--realists know this.

The Denver game imo will be the true test of how good our D really is. So far it hasn't taken advantage of one team that has an above-average QB other than Detroit, but Stafford had only Tate and Tate posted a career game against us and they nearly won that game despite having almost no starting offensive talent on the field and still put up decent numbers considering.

I'm hoping we can do it and I'll take a step towards being convinced that ours is a D that can actually play up to a decent offense. But if Manning and Denver smoke us that'll be our third game against above average teams that that'll have happened against, and then barring great defensive games against either GB or NE (with Brady) I think that will emphasize the fact that we still need lots of work on D.

Manning isn't playing well right now, so this shouldn't be as monumental as it may seem. He's thrown 6 of his 9 INTs in the last 5 games and those defenses were NE, Oakland, and St. Louis. Our D is better than any of those for as good as our D may or may not be.

Our current scoring D ranking is ahead of KC and Seattle who held the Broncos to 20, 24, and 29. Our passing D ranks better than either in INTs generated, TDs allowed, and Sacks.

So presumably we can hold Denver to south of their scoring average of 30 points. St. Louis just held them to 7 a few weeks ago.

[Fletch]

Mr. Pink has said that we can really only afford to lose the Green Bay game and still get in. While losing to GB hurts us the least, any loss in the last 4 effectively puts us at less than a 50% chance of playoffs.

In essence, our playoffs started already.

LMAO at your sig pic.

[pmoon6]

I started a thread about playoff chances because we are not mathematically eliminated. There is nothing positive or negative about what I said... it's reality. It is what it is. You assuming that it's negative because of who said it is your bias, not mine.Well Opie, even when you are just presenting the facts your "aura" still follows you and your posting history can't help but taint some peoples' perception.

[Fletch]

If we're getting smoked that bad in week 17 then why are you starting a thread about playoff chances? You are the King of Billszone negativity. There is no competition.

Please, anyone talking about playoffs is delusional. This offense alone will see to it that it doesn't happen. I mean really, who on earth thinks that we're going to outscore Denver, NE, or GB? If we can hold Denver to 24 it will be half a miracle. Since when has our offense shown that it can score even 20 against any good D? The only team we've been able to hang 20+ on since weeks 1 & 2 and besides the Jets is NE and that was in garbage time and then even just barely to hit 22.

At this point a good goal is for our D to simply attempt to cement the notion that it is a great D by holding the Pats, Packers, and Broncos to under 30. That would be a good ending to this season if you ask me.

This team has no right to even look past Oakland whom, as Historian often points out, we haven't beaten in Oakland since what, '65. If Oakland can beat KC then they can beat us, even if only on the "on any given Sunday" thing.

[Fletch]

The Bills don't need to win out and the Pats lose out. The Bills can win the division at 9-7 or 10-6 conceivably. It's a long shot, but it's possible.

LOL

Yes, and anyone can become president too.

It's beyond a long-shot.

By the way, getting back to our 10-6 friendly wager, right now it would appear that the Chargers are a shoe-in for 10-6. All that has to happen is for any one of 5 other 7-5 teams to go 3-1.

[Fletch]

i just hope the players aren't thinking like this. they just need to find a way to beat the broncos and get to the packers game.

The Packers shouldn't even be a thought in any of the players' minds right now.

Climbing all over Manning should be the focus. He's not been playing well as you know.

[Forward_Lateral]

LOL

Yes, and anyone can become president too.

It's beyond a long-shot.

By the way, getting back to our 10-6 friendly wager, right now it would appear that the Chargers are a shoe-in for 10-6. All that has to happen is for any one of 5 other 7-5 teams to go 3-1.

A lot of teams play each other, which will help the Bills (if Buffalo can continue to win). I also don't know how you consider San Diego a "shoe in" to win 2 of their remaining games. They play Denver, New England, KC and San Fran

[Fletch]

head to head doesn't matter if there are more then 2 teams tied.

so if buffalo, miami, san diego and kc all tie, though we've lost to all of them, the first tiebreaker is conference record. so what we want are 3 way ties with teams we lost to, which we hold a better conference record then.

All three currently have better conference records than we do, you know this, right?

KC has the easiest remaining schedule of the four teams and should have no trouble keeping ahead of us in conference record since they're already a game ahead.

SD and Miami are two games ahead of us in conference record, so to even tie them, assuming that each wins 1 more of their final three conference games, we'd have to sweep Denver, NE, and Oakland. The odds of that happening have to be hundreds to one. If either of those teams wins two of their remaining conference games it becomes impossible for us.

[Fletch]

No. The first tie breaker is miami over buffalo better division record. It then goes to conference record.
You have to break division ties first and thats head to head then division record

So we lose to NE and go 3-3, all Miami has to do is beat the Jets in Miami or NE in NE to have 4 division wins. Miami probably has a better chance of beating NE in NE than we do.

[Fletch]

A lot of teams play each other, which will help the Bills (if Buffalo can continue to win). I also don't know how you consider San Diego a "shoe in" to win 2 of their remaining games. They play Denver, New England, KC and San Fran

SD played the Cards to within 1 in Arizona, beat Seattle, and beat Baltimore in Baltimore. They're perfectly capable of beating any of those teams. Their chances of beating Denver are better than ours, especially since that's a home game for them. Same with NE.

I think they'll win two of those. You're right though, it won't be easy. I took a liberty there.

[stuckincincy]

Tie breaking rules:

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

[Ed]

The chances of winning the division are obviously very slim, but if the Bills did win out, the Pats would only have to lose one other game for the Bills to take the division. If both finish 11-5, regardless of who the Pats lose to, the Bills would win all tie-breaker scenarios.

Personally, I think the Pats win out and take the #1 seed, but they're definitely not a lock for the division just yet.

[swiper]

It looks like Miami has the easiest ride:

http://www.wgr550.com/AFC-Playoff-Race-Primer/20463938

[Don't Panic]

I started a thread about playoff chances because we are not mathematically eliminated. There is nothing positive or negative about what I said... it's reality. It is what it is. You assuming that it's negative because of who said it is your bias, not mine.

Us getting beat 45-3 in a game that hasn't happened yet is reality? No bias and no negativity? That makes sense.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

head to head doesn't matter if there are more then 2 teams tied.

so if buffalo, miami, san diego and kc all tie, though we've lost to all of them, the first tiebreaker is conference record. so what we want are 3 way ties with teams we lost to, which we hold a better conference record then.

No, you apply division tiebreakers first until you are down to 1 team per division. So in our case, we would have to break the tie with Miami first before breaking the tie with whomever survived the KC/SD tie.

With Miami it goes first to H2H, which doesn't solve it since we split.

After that, it goes to division games. Buffalo is 3-2, Miami is 3-1. That's why they are ahead of us right now. This is where it really gets rough, because we both have the Pats on the road but Miami also has New York at home. This is probably what does us in.

After that, the next tiebreaker in division is common games (AFC West and NFC North games). Right now we are 3-2 with three to play (DEN, GB, OAK) and they are 3-4 with one to play (MIN). So this is our first chance to eliminate Miami. It's not an easy road, but beating Denver and Oakland would give it to us.

So beat Denver and we can start dreaming about Playoff scenarios. As it stands now we are teetering on the edge.

[Mace]

I guess I'm not even realistically thinking playoffs this year. I'll get dreamy if they beat Denver, I'll go wild if they beat New England, I'll be damn impressed if they beat Green Bay. I'm hoping they beat Oakland. If they split, I'm looking forward to next year, 1-3 makes me think nothing changed enough to get excited over, 3-1 makes me a sunshine susie, 4-0 makes me think kissed by glorious fate.

To be an exciting "maybe" team to me, they need own people in their own house, 7-1 or 6-2, and they need beat up in their own conference not roll around under .500 before meeting the heavyweights in a death gauntlet of one loss doom.

I have to admit I'm enjoying them this year more than I have in a while. Hate to agree with Sully of TBN but I'm not getting overexcited. Have plenty to chew on for next year.

They're teetering badly, yes. But haha, not eliminated in December yet !

[swiper]

Op hit it in the op by stating that the losses to KC and Miami in back-to-back weeks killed the Bills chances. They could have/should have won those two games.

Now they need to beat NE, Oakland and perhaps steal one of the other two.

The Dolphins seem to have an easier path in.