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Not that this point hasn't been beaten into the ground, but this morning I put together some information that (some of) you may find useful
We have all seen certain numbers thrown around with regards to the Bills chances of making the playoffs--10%, 7%, 1%... But what does it really mean?
I wanted to look at the games that truly impact the Bills chances of making the playoffs, and what our rooting interest should be in each contest--but I wanted that created in such a way so as to be updated after each successive contest: for instance, the Chargers play Saturday night, the Steelers/Ravens play Sunday at 1, and then the Bengals on Monday night.
*To note: these calculations below assume the Bills are going to win out. If they lose a game, this conversation is a moot point.
Looking at the teams remaining in contention for the final 3 playoff spots (AFC North Champion/2 wild cards) and removing the Bills from the equation, we are left with:
Bengals/Ravens/Steelers/Chiefs/Chargers
Now, between those 5 teams, there are a combined 7 games that impact Buffalo's playoff lives:
Week 16
Chargers at 49ers/Chiefs at Steelers/Ravens at Texans/Broncos at Bengals
Week 17
Bengals at Steelers/Browns at Ravens/Chargers at Chiefs
Taking THAT one step further... out of those 7 games, there a possible 128 combinations of outcomes. And yes, I went through each of them and plugged them into the ESPN playoff calculator.
What I was left with was not nearly as bleak or as dire as the statistical prognosticators would have you believe.
From the 128 scenarios that could play out across those 7 games, 44 result in the Bills making the playoffs (34% of scenarios).
And just how big is the Chargers/49ers game?
Well, when a winner of that game is determined (barring ties) there will remain only 64 scenarios by which the remaining 6 games could be played out.
A Chargers win leaves 14 of those 64 scenarios as a way for the Bills to get into the playoffs (22%).
A 49ers gives us 30 out of 64 possible scenarios favorable to Buffalo making the playoffs (47%).
Think about that--a 49ers win and it becomes almost 50/50 that Buffalo will make the playoffs if they win out.
I will post each of the permutations below: a red line indicates the Bills will not make the playoffs, a green line indicates they would be in.
We have all seen certain numbers thrown around with regards to the Bills chances of making the playoffs--10%, 7%, 1%... But what does it really mean?
I wanted to look at the games that truly impact the Bills chances of making the playoffs, and what our rooting interest should be in each contest--but I wanted that created in such a way so as to be updated after each successive contest: for instance, the Chargers play Saturday night, the Steelers/Ravens play Sunday at 1, and then the Bengals on Monday night.
*To note: these calculations below assume the Bills are going to win out. If they lose a game, this conversation is a moot point.
Looking at the teams remaining in contention for the final 3 playoff spots (AFC North Champion/2 wild cards) and removing the Bills from the equation, we are left with:
Bengals/Ravens/Steelers/Chiefs/Chargers
Now, between those 5 teams, there are a combined 7 games that impact Buffalo's playoff lives:
Week 16
Chargers at 49ers/Chiefs at Steelers/Ravens at Texans/Broncos at Bengals
Week 17
Bengals at Steelers/Browns at Ravens/Chargers at Chiefs
Taking THAT one step further... out of those 7 games, there a possible 128 combinations of outcomes. And yes, I went through each of them and plugged them into the ESPN playoff calculator.
What I was left with was not nearly as bleak or as dire as the statistical prognosticators would have you believe.
From the 128 scenarios that could play out across those 7 games, 44 result in the Bills making the playoffs (34% of scenarios).
And just how big is the Chargers/49ers game?
Well, when a winner of that game is determined (barring ties) there will remain only 64 scenarios by which the remaining 6 games could be played out.
A Chargers win leaves 14 of those 64 scenarios as a way for the Bills to get into the playoffs (22%).
A 49ers gives us 30 out of 64 possible scenarios favorable to Buffalo making the playoffs (47%).
Think about that--a 49ers win and it becomes almost 50/50 that Buffalo will make the playoffs if they win out.
I will post each of the permutations below: a red line indicates the Bills will not make the playoffs, a green line indicates they would be in.
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