What needs to happen for Buffalo to make the playoffs!

[JohnnyGold]

Not that this point hasn't been beaten into the ground, but this morning I put together some information that (some of) you may find useful

We have all seen certain numbers thrown around with regards to the Bills chances of making the playoffs--10%, 7%, 1%... But what does it really mean?

I wanted to look at the games that truly impact the Bills chances of making the playoffs, and what our rooting interest should be in each contest--but I wanted that created in such a way so as to be updated after each successive contest: for instance, the Chargers play Saturday night, the Steelers/Ravens play Sunday at 1, and then the Bengals on Monday night.

*To note: these calculations below assume the Bills are going to win out. If they lose a game, this conversation is a moot point.

Looking at the teams remaining in contention for the final 3 playoff spots (AFC North Champion/2 wild cards) and removing the Bills from the equation, we are left with:
Bengals/Ravens/Steelers/Chiefs/Chargers

Now, between those 5 teams, there are a combined 7 games that impact Buffalo's playoff lives:

Week 16
Chargers at 49ers/Chiefs at Steelers/Ravens at Texans/Broncos at Bengals

Week 17
Bengals at Steelers/Browns at Ravens/Chargers at Chiefs

Taking THAT one step further... out of those 7 games, there a possible 128 combinations of outcomes. And yes, I went through each of them and plugged them into the ESPN playoff calculator.

What I was left with was not nearly as bleak or as dire as the statistical prognosticators would have you believe.

From the 128 scenarios that could play out across those 7 games, 44 result in the Bills making the playoffs (34% of scenarios).

And just how big is the Chargers/49ers game?

Well, when a winner of that game is determined (barring ties) there will remain only 64 scenarios by which the remaining 6 games could be played out.

A Chargers win leaves 14 of those 64 scenarios as a way for the Bills to get into the playoffs (22%).

A 49ers gives us 30 out of 64 possible scenarios favorable to Buffalo making the playoffs (47%).

Think about that--a 49ers win and it becomes almost 50/50 that Buffalo will make the playoffs if they win out.

I will post each of the permutations below: a red line indicates the Bills will not make the playoffs, a green line indicates they would be in.

[JohnnyGold]

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[Mr. Miyagi]

Nice but do you have a day job?

[JohnnyGold]

damn i just went through and edited that so it was color coded, but the admins have specified that my post can only be edited for 10 minutes after posting.

that was fun.

[Mr. Miyagi]

LOL good stuff though for sure!

[JohnnyGold]

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steelers
browns
chargers


49ers
steelers
bengals
ravens
steelers
browns
chiefs


49ers
steelers
bengals
ravens
steelers
ravens
chargers


49ers
steelers
bengals
ravens
steelers
ravens
chiefs


49ers
steelers
bengals
texans
bengals
browns
chargers


49ers
steelers
bengals
texans
bengals
browns
chiefs


49ers
steelers
bengals
texans
bengals
ravens
chargers


49ers
steelers
bengals
texans
bengals
ravens
chiefs


49ers
steelers
bengals
texans
steelers
browns
chargers


49ers
steelers
bengals
texans
steelers
browns
chiefs


49ers
steelers
bengals
texans
steelers
ravens
chargers


49ers
steelers
bengals
texans
steelers
ravens
chiefs

</tbody>

[JohnnyGold]

I wanted to elaborate on this before the games kick off tonight--not that the Titans/Jaguars has any bearing on our playoff chances!

Before the Bills start Sunday at 4:25 there are 3 games to be played that will impact the Bills playoff odds:
San Diego at San Francisco (8pm Saturday)/Baltimore at Houston(1pm)/Kansas City at Pittsburgh (1pm)

The results of those three games can only play out 8 ways--excluding ties. Those results range from extremely advantageous to the Bills, to eliminating us from the playoff race before we even kick off. Following those 3 games (and ours) there will be 4 games remaining that impact our playoff chances--which will leave 16 possible scenarios for outcomes.

So, in looking at the games that will be played BEFORE the Bills kick off, here are the possible outcomes, ranked in order of preference for Bills fans, and preceded by the percentage of remaining scenarios that will remain available (on Monday morning, before the Broncos/Bengals game) that results in a wild card birth for the Bills!
I hope someone (anyone)finds this mildly interesting!!


<colgroup><col width="64" span="2" style="width:48pt"> </colgroup><tbody>
63%
49ers/Texans/Steelers


63%
49ers/Texans/Chiefs


38%
49ers/Ravens/Chiefs


38%
Chargesr/Texans/Steelers


38%
Chargers/Texans/Chiefs


25%
49ers/Ravens/Steelers


13%
Chargers/Ravens/Steelers


0%
Chargers/Ravens/Chiefs

</tbody>

[Buffalogic]

This week we want SD to lose against SF. We want KC to lose against PIT. We want Cin to lose against Denver. We want Bal to lose against Hou. All seem probable except maybe Baltimore.

If this happens and we beat Oakland, we are looking pretty good going into the final week.

[JohnnyGold]

This week we want SD to lose against SF. We want KC to lose against PIT. We want Cin to lose against Denver. We want Bal to lose against Hou. All seem probable except maybe Baltimore.

If this happens and we beat Oakland, we are looking pretty good going into the final week.

This is why I started this thread!

It is not as simple as rooting for pit--the result of the sd/sf game and the bal/hou game affects our rooting interest in the kc/pit game.

As of right now, we're rooting for the 49ers saturday night. After that game, the possible permutations of the final 2 weeks (as it affects the Bills) will be reduced from 128 possible scenarios, to 64.

By far and away, the most important game for the Bills this weekend is sd/sf.

[Buffalogic]

^ Ya. I think SF pulls it out. Hope so.

[Meathead]

this is good i just with you would provide more detail

[JohnnyGold]

this is good i just with you would provide more detail


what would you like more info on?

I would love to add to this!

[BuffaloRedleg]

what would you like more info on?

I would love to add to this!

I just spent 5 minutes looking for Meatheads famous "That went over your head" picture he always posts but I can't find it.

Great job though this is awesome I love this stuff.

[Ed]

I wanted to elaborate on this before the games kick off tonight--not that the Titans/Jaguars has any bearing on our playoff chances!

Before the Bills start Sunday at 4:25 there are 3 games to be played that will impact the Bills playoff odds:
San Diego at San Francisco (8pm Saturday)/Baltimore at Houston(1pm)/Kansas City at Pittsburgh (1pm)

The results of those three games can only play out 8 ways--excluding ties. Those results range from extremely advantageous to the Bills, to eliminating us from the playoff race before we even kick off. Following those 3 games (and ours) there will be 4 games remaining that impact our playoff chances--which will leave 16 possible scenarios for outcomes.

So, in looking at the games that will be played BEFORE the Bills kick off, here are the possible outcomes, ranked in order of preference for Bills fans, and preceded by the percentage of remaining scenarios that will remain available (on Monday morning, before the Broncos/Bengals game) that results in a wild card birth for the Bills!
I hope someone (anyone)finds this mildly interesting!!


<colgroup><col width="64" span="2" style="width:48pt"> </colgroup><tbody>
63%
49ers/Texans/Steelers


63%
49ers/Texans/Chiefs


38%
49ers/Ravens/Chiefs


38%
Chargesr/Texans/Steelers


38%
Chargers/Texans/Chiefs


25%
49ers/Ravens/Steelers


13%
Chargers/Ravens/Steelers


0%
Chargers/Ravens/Chiefs

</tbody>
I would take 49ers/Ravens/Steelers over any of the three preceding scenarios you have listed with 38% remaining scenarios. I think any scenario that has the Ravens losing to the Texans and Browns is unrealistic and has the least chance of happening.

[jimmifli]

Rivers is hurt. Missed his first practice in years.

[jimmifli]

I think any scenario that has the Ravens losing to the Texans and Browns is unrealistic and has the least chance of happening.
The ravens are 1-5 vs teams with winning records.

[The Beef]

IMO the most realistic way we get in is this.

The Steelers win out over KC and Cinci.

The Bengals drop both games vs Denver and Pitt.

SD drops either KC or SF.

Bills need to beat Oak and NE, which is the most far fetched possibility of everything mentioned.

The formula is pretty simple though.

[Skooby]

We need a Christmas miracle & the Ref crew scheduled to work the Bills / Pats game to get food poisoning just before the game starts.

[Ed]

The ravens are 1-5 vs teams with winning records.
That would be a nice stat if the Texans and Browns had winning records, but they don't. Ravens are 8-0 against teams .500 or worse. I'll be rooting as hard as anyone for the Texans this weekend, but they'll be starting Case Keenum or Thad Lewis against a defense that's kicking butt right now. And then there's Johnny Manziel. Any way you look at it, of all the games that could help us, the Ravens losing back to back games to Keenum/Lewis and Manziel has the lowest odds of happening.

[jamze132]

Maybe we should have won another game prior to this week...

[JohnnyGold]

I just spent 5 minutes looking for Meatheads famous "That went over your head" picture he always posts but I can't find it.

Great job though this is awesome I love this stuff.

Haha, sorry... it's tough to tell if people genuinely want more information or not.

To me, these scenarios are great, because so often people in positions of power (radio hosts) will say that the Bills have "essentially been eliminated from playoff contention."

Actually looking at what needs to happen for the Bills to make the playoffs is more meaningful that complaining about the Chiefs game we lost...

And 20 responses in, I think people are STILL confused about the percentages.

38% does not mean that if the Ravens/49ers/Steelers win, there is a 38% chances the Bills make the playoffs... it means that after those 3 games have been played, there will only be 16 possible outcomes on the table for the remaining 4 games. Out of those 16 outcomes, 38% result in buf making the playoffs. it is an objective measure of WHO to root for this weekend.

I would rather enter week 17 with 6 out of 8 scenarios in play that result in buf making the post season, as opposed to 2 out of 8.

[Ed]

Haha, sorry... it's tough to tell if people genuinely want more information or not.

To me, these scenarios are great, because so often people in positions of power (radio hosts) will say that the Bills have "essentially been eliminated from playoff contention."

Actually looking at what needs to happen for the Bills to make the playoffs is more meaningful that complaining about the Chiefs game we lost...

And 20 responses in, I think people are STILL confused about the percentages.

38% does not mean that if the Ravens/49ers/Steelers win, there is a 38% chances the Bills make the playoffs... it means that after those 3 games have been played, there will only be 16 possible outcomes on the table for the remaining 4 games. Out of those 16 outcomes, 38% result in buf making the playoffs. it is an objective measure of WHO to root for this weekend.

I would rather enter week 17 with 6 out of 8 scenarios in play that result in buf making the post season, as opposed to 2 out of 8.
But all scenarios aren't equal. Some scenarios are more likely to happen than others. I'd be more concerned about which scenarios are remaining entering week 17 than the amount.

[Meathead]

Maybe we should have won another game prior to this week...

most seasons you can point to two or three plays all year that if you could flip them would result in making the playoffs

this seasons we only need one: the bryce brown fumble. turned that win into a loss and its totally ****ed us up

[Joe Fo Sho]

most seasons you can point to two or three plays all year that if you could flip them would result in making the playoffs

this seasons we only need one: the bryce brown fumble. turned that win into a loss and its totally ****ed us up

It works both ways though. There's no way in hell we should have won the Detroit game.