X's way to early off-season V1.0

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  • X-Era
    What this generation tolerates, the next generation will embrace
    • Feb 2005
    • 27670

    X's way to early off-season V1.0

    For me, I want to step forward even more. That may be tough since QB is a major concern and there isn't much via FA or the draft. The D needs to stay as it is. The O needs another potential future at QB or even 2 and to bolster the OL while adding more threats at RB and TE.

    Front Office:

    Approach:
    The team is on the upswing and has posted its first winning season in a long time. Keep the defensive scheme in tact and fix the offense. Make the Schwartz move on offense and get a proven guy to give us a sure-fire solid offense. Pegula could easily give this FO another year.

    Russ- In
    Whaley- In
    Marrone- In
    Hackett- Out
    Pat Morris- Out

    New OC-

    Cap: ~30 mill in space

    Sportrac has us at 110.7 with a cap of 138.6 which leaves us at 27.9 under. But I think the cap may reach 140 so I think 30 mill under is about where we land.

    The Buffalo Bills 2015 salary cap table, including team cap space, dead cap figures, and complete breakdowns of player cap hits, salaries, and bonuses.

    The NFL owners came out of meetings Wednesday with an idea of the 2015 salary cap, but the NFL Players Association has a different opinion.


    Free Agency:

    Approach:
    Re-sign the key bodies on defense. Hughes was key to being the #1 sacking D. Spikes may be out of place but has helped the run defense so much we need to keep him. Let Spiller walk and get a draftee. Maintain the solid depth and add from the draft. Make the bold but relatively cheap move for another QB with upside and games under his belt to compete to start with EJ. Buck the Bills trend of signing a end of their career vet at QB.

    Re-sign:


    Jerry Hughes- 8 per... SB is pro-rated so that the cap hit is 8
    Brandon Spikes- 3 per
    Lee Smith- 0.7 per
    Marcus Easley- 0.7 per

    Eats 12.4 of the cap
    Left- 17.6

    Let walk:

    CJ Spiller- Love the guy, love to have him back, but RB's are a dime a dozen and we can sign/draft a guy that we can count on more
    DaNorris Searcy- Too many bodies and I personally want an upgrade or Rambo/Duke Williams to get a shot
    Erik Pears
    Chris Hairston- Too many bodies
    Jarius Wynn
    Stevenson Sylvester
    Larry Dean

    Re-structure:

    Mario Williams- Current highest hit at DE in the league. Hit is 18.8 and the next highest is 13.1. Make the hit 13.
    Adds- 5.8
    Left- 23.4


    Extend:

    Marcell Dareus- 9 mill cap hit, Geno Atkins money
    Eats- 1 mill (already on the books for 8 hit in 2015)
    Left- 22.4
    http://www.spotrac.com/rankings/nfl/...ckle/limit-25/


    ERFA/RFA:


    Keep all... Hogan, Bryant, Gay, Thigpen, Thompson
    Eats 1.75
    Left- 20.7

    Sign:

    Backups/role players- 3 mill
    Eats- 3
    Left 17.7

    Trade:

    RG3- 6.78 cap hit- The big move of the offseason. Adds a young guy with plenty of upside. Competes with Manuel day one and doesn't cost a fortune. See how he does and let him walk if we choose in 2016... he's a UFA that year. Compensation- conditional 3rd... 4th rounder... The Stevie pick
    Eats- 6.78
    Left- 9 mill

    Now that Robert Griffin III's Redskins future is up in the air, he's bound to be the subject of offseason trade speculation. But what do NFL executives have to say about his potential trade value?


    Draft:

    Approach: Get the young RB to replace Spiller. Add a lower round QB prospect with upside to at least push Tuel. Add OL prospects to push last years class. Add a TE with speed. Add DB's to push guys like Ron Brooks, Meeks, maybe Duke Williams or Rambo. Projections fit at or around the current rankings from Scouts Inc on ESPN and CBS Sports.

    2) TJ Yeldon, RB, Ala- Replaces CJ Spiller, fast, shifty, big
    3) Traded for RG3
    4a) Garrett Grayson, QB, Colorado State- Good potential should replace Tuel and act as a potential developmental guy
    4b) John Miller, OG, Louisville
    5a) Wes Saxton, TE, South Alabama- 6' 4" with 4.6 speed but very raw
    5b) Corey Robinson, OT, South Carolina- 6' 7" 344 athletic LT who could move to RT
    6) Justin Coleman, CB, Tenn- Could play at Nickel, good tackler
    7) Justin Cox, CB/FS, Miss St



    Eats- Around 5 mill in cap space
    Left- 4 mil

    Last edited by X-Era; 12-31-2014, 09:42 AM.

  • Ingtar33
    Dances With Buffaloes
    • Sep 2002
    • 15469

    #2
    Re: X's way to early off-season V1.0

    your problem with be extending Darius. He's going to want money similar to what Suh signs for, and frankly... he probably should get it after the way his last two years went. 10+ sack/year defensive tackles are RARE. the last one i can remember who could be reliably counted on for 10 sacks a season was Warren Sapp.
    Last edited by Ingtar33; 12-31-2014, 09:45 AM.
    My wife told me that if I had a dollar for every girl who found me unattractive, girls would find me VERY attractive.

    MY WIFE SAID THAT!!!

    Comment

    • X-Era
      What this generation tolerates, the next generation will embrace
      • Feb 2005
      • 27670

      #3
      Re: X's way to early off-season V1.0

      Originally posted by Ingtar33 View Post
      your problem with be extending Darius. He's going to want money similar to what Suh signs for, and frankly... he probably should get it after the way his last two years went.
      He's top 5 in the league but so is Atkins. I used the Atkins contract as the model. Suhs deal is structured very oddly.

      You're looking at around 10-11 mill per (not cap hit) for a top 5 DT

      A current summary of Detroit Lions 2024 player cap & cash figures.
      Last edited by X-Era; 12-31-2014, 09:47 AM.

      Comment

      • Ingtar33
        Dances With Buffaloes
        • Sep 2002
        • 15469

        #4
        Re: X's way to early off-season V1.0

        Originally posted by X-Era View Post
        He's top 5 in the league but so is Atkins. I used the Atkins contract as the model.
        then we'll need to extend him before Suh signs because Suh's money is going to be his contact demand.
        My wife told me that if I had a dollar for every girl who found me unattractive, girls would find me VERY attractive.

        MY WIFE SAID THAT!!!

        Comment

        • X-Era
          What this generation tolerates, the next generation will embrace
          • Feb 2005
          • 27670

          #5
          Re: X's way to early off-season V1.0

          Originally posted by Ingtar33 View Post
          then we'll need to extend him before Suh signs because Suh's money is going to be his contact demand.
          I don't think he gets Suh money. Between production in previous years that didn't meet Suhs and off the field concerns I think Atkins is the ceiling.

          Comment

          • Ed
            Registered User
            • Sep 2002
            • 9245

            #6
            Re: X's way to early off-season V1.0

            I don't think extending Dareus needs to be a priority this offseason. He's probably facing a suspension and it would be nice to see him continue to show that he's maturing before giving him the mega deal. I won't complain if they extend him though.

            I'm surprised your plan doesn't have any significant free agent signings. I expect the Bills to make bringing in some vet O-linemen a top priority. A couple later round draft picks to replace Hairston and Pears doesn't seem like we're improving the OL, just hoping that young guys get better.

            Comment

            • X-Era
              What this generation tolerates, the next generation will embrace
              • Feb 2005
              • 27670

              #7
              Re: X's way to early off-season V1.0

              Originally posted by Ed View Post
              I don't think extending Dareus needs to be a priority this offseason. He's probably facing a suspension and it would be nice to see him continue to show that he's maturing before giving him the mega deal. I won't complain if they extend him though.

              I'm surprised your plan doesn't have any significant free agent signings. I expect the Bills to make bringing in some vet O-linemen a top priority. A couple later round draft picks to replace Hairston and Pears doesn't seem like we're improving the OL, just hoping that young guys get better.
              Here's why I didn't add a sure-fire G for example:

              1) They have 2 draftees returning at G in Cujo and Richardson that they took high
              2) Chris Williams will be back
              3) They should add more OL from the draft
              4) I made a judgement call on keeping Spikes at 3 mill and only adding depth from FA
              5) I want us to keep the depth that we have... I think it was a major reason that we had success

              But, we could let Spikes walk and not do much else in FA and add a guy like James Carpenter for say 6 mill per (cap)

              Comment

              • Mr. Pink
                Peterman Sucks!
                • Mar 2006
                • 35303

                #8
                Re: X's way to early off-season V1.0

                Doesn't CJ have a player option?

                Or do you just suggest that the team tell him he's not wanted back so he doesn't exercise it?

                Comment

                • Don't Panic
                  All-Pro Zoner
                  • Dec 2005
                  • 4227

                  #9
                  Re: X's way to early off-season V1.0

                  Thanks for putting so much time and energy into this, X. A few thoughts...

                  I don't see us switching OCs. If we wanted to get a proven guy in here the time would be now. Marrone's keeping his boy.

                  I believe Spiller's player option counts towards the $110, so you can shave another $4+ million off our current cap number.

                  I don't see Mario restructuring. Maybe next year.

                  I think we let Hughes walk at that number. We can get a guy who can be equally advantageous in this situation as Hughes was when he came here for half the price. Being on a line with Kyle, Mario and Marcel makes guys better, especially in Schwartz's scheme. I'd even be up for drafting one in the 3rd. What a great situation for a young guy to come into.

                  I think we let Spikes walk too. Alonso/Brown/Bradham as starters and Rivers/FA as depth. We're good with that.

                  I agree that Dareus will cost more. I could see 5 years, $60 million.

                  I'd like to see us resign Wynn. I like him for depth.

                  RG3 isn't getting dealt, and we're not in a position to deal for him.

                  I LOVE the Yeldon pick. If he's there, I say no brainer. Great kid who can become a top 10 back. I've read from Alabama folks who think he's a better runner than Lacy. That's high praise. What a great situation to learn from Freddy too.

                  I'm going to do my homework on Grayson... he had a good coach so you'd think there's a solid foundation there.

                  Comment

                  • EDS
                    Registered User
                    • Jan 2003
                    • 5216

                    #10
                    Re: X's way to early off-season V1.0

                    As bad as he has been, I do not think the Bills could get RG III for a third round pick.

                    I also suspect the price for Hughes and Dareus is $10m per as a floor.

                    Comment

                    • Ed
                      Registered User
                      • Sep 2002
                      • 9245

                      #11
                      Re: X's way to early off-season V1.0

                      Originally posted by X-Era View Post
                      Here's why I didn't add a sure-fire G for example:

                      1) They have 2 draftees returning at G in Cujo and Richardson that they took high
                      2) Chris Williams will be back
                      3) They should add more OL from the draft
                      4) I made a judgement call on keeping Spikes at 3 mill and only adding depth from FA
                      5) I want us to keep the depth that we have... I think it was a major reason that we had success

                      But, we could let Spikes walk and not do much else in FA and add a guy like James Carpenter for say 6 mill per (cap)
                      I like keeping Spikes for what he brings in terms of attitude and leadership. He had a fairly limited role though, so they might be able to get him for less than $3 mil. He did say that he loved playing here.

                      I like our depth too, but I would consider cutting a few guys to add some cap space for free agency. I think Urbiks $2.3 mil in savings can better spent and with Kiko returning, I don't know that it's worth keeping Keith Rivers on the bench. Lawson is another guy that could go. So I would consider getting rid of Urbik for sure and either Rivers or Lawson, which would free up about $4 mil total.

                      Comment

                      • X-Era
                        What this generation tolerates, the next generation will embrace
                        • Feb 2005
                        • 27670

                        #12
                        Re: X's way to early off-season V1.0

                        Originally posted by EDS View Post
                        As bad as he has been, I do not think the Bills could get RG III for a third round pick.

                        I also suspect the price for Hughes and Dareus is $10m per as a floor.
                        My number was cap hit not salary on Dareus.

                        Comment

                        • IlluminatusUIUC
                          Registered User
                          • Sep 2012
                          • 8966

                          #13
                          Re: X's way to early off-season V1.0

                          Originally posted by X-Era View Post
                          I don't think he gets Suh money. Between production in previous years that didn't meet Suhs and off the field concerns I think Atkins is the ceiling.
                          Suh's original contract is irrelevant because it was a pre rookie cap #2 pick deal. Atkins didn't set the market, McCoy set the market. $96 million, $50 million guaranteed, 15.8 per year (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tampa-bay.../gerald-mccoy/) IMO it doesn't matter when Suh signs, Dareus is going to demand close to that on the market and will get it.

                          If we get out of paying Dareus at least 12-13 million he needs to fire his agent. From a cannon. Into the lake.

                          As for Hughes, 8 million per is also on the low end for an edge rusher. I think Michael Johnson's deal is a good guide post: 43.75 million, $18 guaranteed, 8.75 per (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tampa-bay...chael-johnson/) Hughes is a better pass rusher, but he is a worse run defender.

                          You also have two 4th rounders listed, one of those fourth rounders was already traded for Bryce Brown.


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                          • X-Era
                            What this generation tolerates, the next generation will embrace
                            • Feb 2005
                            • 27670

                            #14
                            Re: X's way to early off-season V1.0

                            Originally posted by Ed View Post
                            I like keeping Spikes for what he brings in terms of attitude and leadership. He had a fairly limited role though, so they might be able to get him for less than $3 mil. He did say that he loved playing here.

                            I like our depth too, but I would consider cutting a few guys to add some cap space for free agency. I think Urbiks $2.3 mil in savings can better spent and with Kiko returning, I don't know that it's worth keeping Keith Rivers on the bench. Lawson is another guy that could go. So I would consider getting rid of Urbik for sure and either Rivers or Lawson, which would free up about $4 mil total.
                            Urbik should go. I will make that fix when I get to it. Rivers I'd agree with but rotation and depth matters to me.

                            I wouldn't mind a solid G addition from FA. But I could see it going either way. The Bills like to develop their people.

                            Comment

                            • X-Era
                              What this generation tolerates, the next generation will embrace
                              • Feb 2005
                              • 27670

                              #15
                              Re: X's way to early off-season V1.0

                              Originally posted by IlluminatusUIUC View Post
                              Suh's original contract is irrelevant because it was a pre rookie cap #2 pick deal. Atkins didn't set the market, McCoy set the market. $96 million, $50 million guaranteed, 15.8 per year (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tampa-bay.../gerald-mccoy/) IMO it doesn't matter when Suh signs, Dareus is going to demand close to that on the market and will get it.

                              If we get out of paying Dareus at least 12-13 million he needs to fire his agent. From a cannon. Into the lake.

                              As for Hughes, 8 million per is also on the low end for an edge rusher. I think Michael Johnson's deal is a good guide post: 43.75 million, $18 guaranteed, 8.75 per (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tampa-bay...chael-johnson/) Hughes is a better pass rusher, but he is a worse run defender.

                              You also have two 4th rounders listed, one of those fourth rounders was already traded for Bryce Brown.
                              YOu're going high end for Dareus, OK. I was listing cap hit.

                              Hughes contract would be Avrils IMO.

                              Check the link I had on the draft picks... it lists us possible having 2 4ths. I could be wrong it wasn't very clear.

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