X's way to early off-season V1.0

[X-Era]

For me, I want to step forward even more. That may be tough since QB is a major concern and there isn't much via FA or the draft. The D needs to stay as it is. The O needs another potential future at QB or even 2 and to bolster the OL while adding more threats at RB and TE.

Front Office:

Approach: The team is on the upswing and has posted its first winning season in a long time. Keep the defensive scheme in tact and fix the offense. Make the Schwartz move on offense and get a proven guy to give us a sure-fire solid offense. Pegula could easily give this FO another year.

Russ- In
Whaley- In
Marrone- In
Hackett- Out
Pat Morris- Out

New OC-

Cap: ~30 mill in space

Sportrac has us at 110.7 with a cap of 138.6 which leaves us at 27.9 under. But I think the cap may reach 140 so I think 30 mill under is about where we land.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2015/
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2014/12/11/7376451/nfl-salary-cap-nflpa-2015

Free Agency:

Approach: Re-sign the key bodies on defense. Hughes was key to being the #1 sacking D. Spikes may be out of place but has helped the run defense so much we need to keep him. Let Spiller walk and get a draftee. Maintain the solid depth and add from the draft. Make the bold but relatively cheap move for another QB with upside and games under his belt to compete to start with EJ. Buck the Bills trend of signing a end of their career vet at QB.

Re-sign:

Jerry Hughes- 8 per... SB is pro-rated so that the cap hit is 8
Brandon Spikes- 3 per
Lee Smith- 0.7 per
Marcus Easley- 0.7 per

Eats 12.4 of the cap
Left- 17.6

Let walk:

CJ Spiller- Love the guy, love to have him back, but RB's are a dime a dozen and we can sign/draft a guy that we can count on more
DaNorris Searcy- Too many bodies and I personally want an upgrade or Rambo/Duke Williams to get a shot
Erik Pears
Chris Hairston- Too many bodies
Jarius Wynn
Stevenson Sylvester
Larry Dean

Re-structure:

Mario Williams- Current highest hit at DE in the league. Hit is 18.8 and the next highest is 13.1. Make the hit 13.
Adds- 5.8
Left- 23.4
http://www.spotrac.com/rankings/nfl/cap-hit/defensive-end/limit-25/

Extend:

Marcell Dareus- 9 mill cap hit, Geno Atkins money
Eats- 1 mill (already on the books for 8 hit in 2015)
Left- 22.4
http://www.spotrac.com/rankings/nfl/cap-hit/defensive-tackle/limit-25/


ERFA/RFA:

Keep all... Hogan, Bryant, Gay, Thigpen, Thompson
Eats 1.75
Left- 20.7

Sign:

Backups/role players- 3 mill
Eats- 3
Left 17.7

Trade:

RG3- 6.78 cap hit- The big move of the offseason. Adds a young guy with plenty of upside. Competes with Manuel day one and doesn't cost a fortune. See how he does and let him walk if we choose in 2016... he's a UFA that year. Compensation- conditional 3rd... 4th rounder... The Stevie pick
Eats- 6.78
Left- 9 mill
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/washington-redskins/robert-griffin-iii/
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000435730/article/robert-griffin-iii-wont-bring-redskins-value-in-trade

Draft:

Approach: Get the young RB to replace Spiller. Add a lower round QB prospect with upside to at least push Tuel. Add OL prospects to push last years class. Add a TE with speed. Add DB's to push guys like Ron Brooks, Meeks, maybe Duke Williams or Rambo. Projections fit at or around the current rankings from Scouts Inc on ESPN and CBS Sports.

2) TJ Yeldon, RB, Ala- Replaces CJ Spiller, fast, shifty, big
3) Traded for RG3
4a) Garrett Grayson, QB, Colorado State- Good potential should replace Tuel and act as a potential developmental guy
4b) John Miller, OG, Louisville
5a) Wes Saxton, TE, South Alabama- 6' 4" with 4.6 speed but very raw
5b) Corey Robinson, OT, South Carolina- 6' 7" 344 athletic LT who could move to RT
6) Justin Coleman, CB, Tenn- Could play at Nickel, good tackler
7) Justin Cox, CB/FS, Miss St

http://www.prosportstransactions.com/football/DraftTrades/Future/Bills.htm

Eats- Around 5 mill in cap space
Left- 4 mil

http://overthecap.com/2014-rookie-pool-estimates.php

[Ingtar33]

your problem with be extending Darius. He's going to want money similar to what Suh signs for, and frankly... he probably should get it after the way his last two years went. 10+ sack/year defensive tackles are RARE. the last one i can remember who could be reliably counted on for 10 sacks a season was Warren Sapp.

[X-Era]

your problem with be extending Darius. He's going to want money similar to what Suh signs for, and frankly... he probably should get it after the way his last two years went.He's top 5 in the league but so is Atkins. I used the Atkins contract as the model. Suhs deal is structured very oddly.

You're looking at around 10-11 mill per (not cap hit) for a top 5 DT

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/detroit-lions/ndamukong-suh/

[Ingtar33]

He's top 5 in the league but so is Atkins. I used the Atkins contract as the model.

then we'll need to extend him before Suh signs because Suh's money is going to be his contact demand.

[X-Era]

then we'll need to extend him before Suh signs because Suh's money is going to be his contact demand.
I don't think he gets Suh money. Between production in previous years that didn't meet Suhs and off the field concerns I think Atkins is the ceiling.

[Ed]

I don't think extending Dareus needs to be a priority this offseason. He's probably facing a suspension and it would be nice to see him continue to show that he's maturing before giving him the mega deal. I won't complain if they extend him though.

I'm surprised your plan doesn't have any significant free agent signings. I expect the Bills to make bringing in some vet O-linemen a top priority. A couple later round draft picks to replace Hairston and Pears doesn't seem like we're improving the OL, just hoping that young guys get better.

[X-Era]

I don't think extending Dareus needs to be a priority this offseason. He's probably facing a suspension and it would be nice to see him continue to show that he's maturing before giving him the mega deal. I won't complain if they extend him though.

I'm surprised your plan doesn't have any significant free agent signings. I expect the Bills to make bringing in some vet O-linemen a top priority. A couple later round draft picks to replace Hairston and Pears doesn't seem like we're improving the OL, just hoping that young guys get better.Here's why I didn't add a sure-fire G for example:

1) They have 2 draftees returning at G in Cujo and Richardson that they took high
2) Chris Williams will be back
3) They should add more OL from the draft
4) I made a judgement call on keeping Spikes at 3 mill and only adding depth from FA
5) I want us to keep the depth that we have... I think it was a major reason that we had success

But, we could let Spikes walk and not do much else in FA and add a guy like James Carpenter for say 6 mill per (cap)

[Mr. Pink]

Doesn't CJ have a player option?

Or do you just suggest that the team tell him he's not wanted back so he doesn't exercise it?

[Don't Panic]

Thanks for putting so much time and energy into this, X. A few thoughts...

I don't see us switching OCs. If we wanted to get a proven guy in here the time would be now. Marrone's keeping his boy.

I believe Spiller's player option counts towards the $110, so you can shave another $4+ million off our current cap number.

I don't see Mario restructuring. Maybe next year.

I think we let Hughes walk at that number. We can get a guy who can be equally advantageous in this situation as Hughes was when he came here for half the price. Being on a line with Kyle, Mario and Marcel makes guys better, especially in Schwartz's scheme. I'd even be up for drafting one in the 3rd. What a great situation for a young guy to come into.

I think we let Spikes walk too. Alonso/Brown/Bradham as starters and Rivers/FA as depth. We're good with that.

I agree that Dareus will cost more. I could see 5 years, $60 million.

I'd like to see us resign Wynn. I like him for depth.

RG3 isn't getting dealt, and we're not in a position to deal for him.

I LOVE the Yeldon pick. If he's there, I say no brainer. Great kid who can become a top 10 back. I've read from Alabama folks who think he's a better runner than Lacy. That's high praise. What a great situation to learn from Freddy too.

I'm going to do my homework on Grayson... he had a good coach so you'd think there's a solid foundation there.

[EDS]

As bad as he has been, I do not think the Bills could get RG III for a third round pick.

I also suspect the price for Hughes and Dareus is $10m per as a floor.

[Ed]

Here's why I didn't add a sure-fire G for example:

1) They have 2 draftees returning at G in Cujo and Richardson that they took high
2) Chris Williams will be back
3) They should add more OL from the draft
4) I made a judgement call on keeping Spikes at 3 mill and only adding depth from FA
5) I want us to keep the depth that we have... I think it was a major reason that we had success

But, we could let Spikes walk and not do much else in FA and add a guy like James Carpenter for say 6 mill per (cap)
I like keeping Spikes for what he brings in terms of attitude and leadership. He had a fairly limited role though, so they might be able to get him for less than $3 mil. He did say that he loved playing here.

I like our depth too, but I would consider cutting a few guys to add some cap space for free agency. I think Urbiks $2.3 mil in savings can better spent and with Kiko returning, I don't know that it's worth keeping Keith Rivers on the bench. Lawson is another guy that could go. So I would consider getting rid of Urbik for sure and either Rivers or Lawson, which would free up about $4 mil total.

[X-Era]

As bad as he has been, I do not think the Bills could get RG III for a third round pick.

I also suspect the price for Hughes and Dareus is $10m per as a floor.My number was cap hit not salary on Dareus.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

I don't think he gets Suh money. Between production in previous years that didn't meet Suhs and off the field concerns I think Atkins is the ceiling.

Suh's original contract is irrelevant because it was a pre rookie cap #2 pick deal. Atkins didn't set the market, McCoy set the market. $96 million, $50 million guaranteed, 15.8 per year (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tampa-bay-buccaneers/gerald-mccoy/) IMO it doesn't matter when Suh signs, Dareus is going to demand close to that on the market and will get it.

If we get out of paying Dareus at least 12-13 million he needs to fire his agent. From a cannon. Into the lake.

As for Hughes, 8 million per is also on the low end for an edge rusher. I think Michael Johnson's deal is a good guide post: 43.75 million, $18 guaranteed, 8.75 per (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tampa-bay-buccaneers/michael-johnson/) Hughes is a better pass rusher, but he is a worse run defender.

You also have two 4th rounders listed, one of those fourth rounders was already traded for Bryce Brown.

[X-Era]

I like keeping Spikes for what he brings in terms of attitude and leadership. He had a fairly limited role though, so they might be able to get him for less than $3 mil. He did say that he loved playing here.

I like our depth too, but I would consider cutting a few guys to add some cap space for free agency. I think Urbiks $2.3 mil in savings can better spent and with Kiko returning, I don't know that it's worth keeping Keith Rivers on the bench. Lawson is another guy that could go. So I would consider getting rid of Urbik for sure and either Rivers or Lawson, which would free up about $4 mil total.
Urbik should go. I will make that fix when I get to it. Rivers I'd agree with but rotation and depth matters to me.

I wouldn't mind a solid G addition from FA. But I could see it going either way. The Bills like to develop their people.

[X-Era]

Suh's original contract is irrelevant because it was a pre rookie cap #2 pick deal. Atkins didn't set the market, McCoy set the market. $96 million, $50 million guaranteed, 15.8 per year (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tampa-bay-buccaneers/gerald-mccoy/) IMO it doesn't matter when Suh signs, Dareus is going to demand close to that on the market and will get it.

If we get out of paying Dareus at least 12-13 million he needs to fire his agent. From a cannon. Into the lake.

As for Hughes, 8 million per is also on the low end for an edge rusher. I think Michael Johnson's deal is a good guide post: 43.75 million, $18 guaranteed, 8.75 per (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tampa-bay-buccaneers/michael-johnson/) Hughes is a better pass rusher, but he is a worse run defender.

You also have two 4th rounders listed, one of those fourth rounders was already traded for Bryce Brown.
YOu're going high end for Dareus, OK. I was listing cap hit.

Hughes contract would be Avrils IMO.

Check the link I had on the draft picks... it lists us possible having 2 4ths. I could be wrong it wasn't very clear.

[X-Era]

Thanks for putting so much time and energy into this, X. A few thoughts...

I don't see us switching OCs. If we wanted to get a proven guy in here the time would be now. Marrone's keeping his boy.

I believe Spiller's player option counts towards the $110, so you can shave another $4+ million off our current cap number.

I don't see Mario restructuring. Maybe next year.

I think we let Hughes walk at that number. We can get a guy who can be equally advantageous in this situation as Hughes was when he came here for half the price. Being on a line with Kyle, Mario and Marcel makes guys better, especially in Schwartz's scheme. I'd even be up for drafting one in the 3rd. What a great situation for a young guy to come into.

I think we let Spikes walk too. Alonso/Brown/Bradham as starters and Rivers/FA as depth. We're good with that.

I agree that Dareus will cost more. I could see 5 years, $60 million.

I'd like to see us resign Wynn. I like him for depth.

RG3 isn't getting dealt, and we're not in a position to deal for him.

I LOVE the Yeldon pick. If he's there, I say no brainer. Great kid who can become a top 10 back. I've read from Alabama folks who think he's a better runner than Lacy. That's high praise. What a great situation to learn from Freddy too.

I'm going to do my homework on Grayson... he had a good coach so you'd think there's a solid foundation there.I could see the Bills not investing so much in the DL. But I want it in tact. We ended #1 in the league for sacks by 5, and #4 overall on D. That was because they were so strong on the DL.

Keep what you have, fix what you dont.

[Ed]

I was under the impression that we don't have a 4th round pick at all, but I'm not sure anymore with all the trades. I thought our original 4th went to Cleveland for Sammy, then we got a 4th from SF for Stevie, and then used that 4th for Brown. But I think both the Stevie and Brown trades involved conditional picks, so I don't know how that impacts things either.

Never mind, the 4th for Sammy was from the previous draft.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

YOu're going high end for Dareus, OK. I was listing cap hit.

His cap hit won't be 9 million per either. We can arrange for a year or two of low hits to accomodate other players, but there's no way to get the hit to 9 million per year.


Hughes contract would be Avrils IMO.

Avril gave a hometown discount IMO, something Hughes has already said he won't do.


Check the link I had on the draft picks... it lists us possible having 2 4ths. I could be wrong it wasn't very clear.

We HAD two fourths, we traded them both away. I had forgotten that the 4th rounder from the Watkins trade applied this year, so our original 4th is off to Cleveland. The pick we get from San Francisco and the pick we send to Philly are both conditional, so it's not clear which one we send away. Since neither Johnson nor Brown played all that much or well, I'm assuming neither hit their conditions, so we get San Francisco's 4th and promptly turn around and send it to Philly. So our 2015 draft looks like:

1) Watkins
2)
3)
4a) Brown
4b) Watkins
5a)
5b)
6)
7)

- - - Updated - - -


Never mind, the 4th for Sammy was from the previous draft.

No it wasn't. Our 2014 4th rounder is Russ Cockrell.

[Ed]

His cap hit won't be 9 million per either. We can arrange for a year or two of low hits to accomodate other players, but there's no way to get the hit to 9 million per year.



Avril gave a hometown discount IMO, something Hughes has already said he won't do.



We HAD two fourths, we traded them both away. I had forgotten that the 4th rounder from the Watkins trade applied this year, so our original 4th is off to Cleveland. The pick we get from San Francisco and the pick we send to Philly are both conditional, so it's not clear which one we send away. Since neither Johnson nor Brown played all that much or well, I'm assuming neither hit their conditions, so we get San Francisco's 4th and promptly turn around and send it to Philly. So our 2015 draft looks like:

1) Watkins
2)
3)
4a) Brown
4b) Watkins
5a)
5b)
6)
7)

- - - Updated - - -



No it wasn't. Our 2014 4th rounder is Russ Cockrell.
Yeah, I keep getting it mixed up. I thought the 4th for Cockrell was the pick we got for trading back in the 2nd, but I believe that was a 5th.

Assuming we don't have a 1st or 4th this year, I can't see the Bills being quiet in free agency. If this is at all a make or break year for Whaley and Marrone I expect them to be aggressive in free agency and try to make some significant moves.

[X-Era]

His cap hit won't be 9 million per either. We can arrange for a year or two of low hits to accomodate other players, but there's no way to get the hit to 9 million per year.



Avril gave a hometown discount IMO, something Hughes has already said he won't do.



We HAD two fourths, we traded them both away. I had forgotten that the 4th rounder from the Watkins trade applied this year, so our original 4th is off to Cleveland. The pick we get from San Francisco and the pick we send to Philly are both conditional, so it's not clear which one we send away. Since neither Johnson nor Brown played all that much or well, I'm assuming neither hit their conditions, so we get San Francisco's 4th and promptly turn around and send it to Philly. So our 2015 draft looks like:

1) Watkins
2)
3)
4a) Brown
4b) Watkins
5a)
5b)
6)
7)

- - - Updated - - -



No it wasn't. Our 2014 4th rounder is Russ Cockrell.
I gave you the links to show the 9 mill in cap hit.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

I gave you the links to show the 9 mill in cap hit.

Yeah, and I'm telling you that contract is highway robbery by the Bengals. No way does Dareus take that deal if its offered.

[YardRat]

I'm tweaking mine, probably get it up today or tomorrow.

We can compare notes :D

[DraftBoy]

I think the contract numbers for Dareus and Hughes are a little low.

[X-Era]

I think the contract numbers for Dareus and Hughes are a little low.Get in line. Although to be fair I'm going with the cap hits not the actual contract numbers.

[jamze132]

I don't see us resigning Hughes and I don't see him coming close to his production wearing another uniform. He benefited from the other three lineman more than any other DE in the NFL. If Hughes is smart, he'll figure out what a "hometown discount" deal is to stay in Buffalo.

[DraftBoy]

Get in line. Although to be fair I'm going with the cap hits not the actual contract numbers.

Fair enough, I think the cap hit is a little low too.

[Buffalo Thriller]

Yeldon in the 2nd would be awesome. I've watched every game of Ingram, Lacy, Richardson and Yeldon,many of which in person. He always stood out the most.

[Uncle Jesse]

I like most of it except I hate the idea of taking a RB in the 2nd, I think you can get good RBs really anywhere, as they are a dime a dozen as you said yourself.

Also, I'd keep Searcy as he'll come cheap, is actually pretty good and better than Rambo or the other young guys there.

[TacklingDummy]

Take it to the bank, Dareus last game in Buffalo will be week 16 next year. If not already.

[jimmifli]

The time to extend Dareus was last season. There's no savings to be had now, he gains very little benefit by extending this season so unless we offer to make him the highest paid DT in the game he'll wait. Next year he'll get his market rate deal from us or get franchised... with all the acrimony that entails.

There are two motivations for signing guys early:

The first is to keep the player from hitting free agency (not much a concern now for the Bills since the a franchise tag is cheaper than the fair market price on Dareus). And the second reason is to save some money by slightly overpaying a player before they've earned it in hopes they turn into a superstar during the contract (like we did with Aaron Williams last season, or Jason Peters years ago), but at this point it's too late, Dareus already turned into a superstar so there is no savings to be had.

I've argued for two offseasons that the Bills should make a longterm extension a priority, maybe they did, but regardless it didn't get done. Now they have to pay him his fair market price which is probably the highest or second highest paid DT in the NFL. They might as well wait until next season to get that done and save a little cash in 2015.

[Fixxxer]

I see the Bills trying hard to re-sign Searcy. I think they like Jairus Wynn too, he's versatile (played DT last game) I don't know how they feel about Hairston but I would try to re-sign him, he won't gather much attention in FA.

They need to bring an OG that can start in FA.

[YardRat]

Gawdammit at this rate it's going to take a while to get mine done.

Almost finished? Orton retires...Tweaked and adjusted? Marrone bails...