YardRat
01-01-2015, 01:14 PM
What the hell, can't wait forever. At the rate things are changing it'll have to undergo a complete re-do by next weekend anyway...Red=roster, green=practice squad, parenthesis=current IR, stars=current PS.
The 2015 off season should consist of three specific goals-Hire a new Head Coach complete with new offensive staff, upgrade the interior of the offensive line, and keep the defense (staff and roster) intact. Other than Hughes, Searcy and Spikes there are a few UFA's the team should try to keep, and should come with a reasonable price tag. IMO they should pay Hughes, can afford Searcy and the rest, but may not be able to keep Spikes depending on what kind of bank he's looking for. At this point, I'm actually expecting the opposite to happen though. Keep in mind when reading this I'm running the off-season under an almost best-case, wish-list scenario, and don't expect the team to be able to pull everything off.
Priorities---
1. Hire Cowher.
2. Re-sign Hughes and Spikes.
3. Free agent Guard and TE.
1. Let me start off by stating I am not a Cowher fan, and have lobbied in the past to NOT bring him in, even if he was willing. Considering the state of the team, I have to admit I'm warming up to the idea. The defense and special teams are set, all Cowher would have to do is generally run the show and make game-day decisions. One of the aspects of a Cowher hire are available assistants he can bring with him...Gailey for OC, Grimm for oline. Granted he's been out of the league for years, but Gailey and Grimm haven't. Granted he's already won a SB and may not have the same hunger as a younger guy, but considering a dominant defense already being in place and some talent on the offensive side of the ball the opportunity to be the first HC to win a championship with two different teams is no better anywhere in the league (yes, even San Fran) and may be enough to re-light a spark. Cowher is a fit here, Gailey can still run an offense, and Grimm could probably create a decently functioning oline with what we have plus one or two additions. If the window for success actually is short, might as well shoot for the stars now. What's the worse that can happen...we don't make the playoffs again?
2. Not ideal, but I don't think the team is going to do both. I expect Hughes to price himself out of the Buffalo market. That makes re-signing Spikes a must, and moving somebody like Bradham up into the front four rotation.
3. We are fortunate that there seems to be a lot of interior talent available in FA this off-season, and possibly even a TE. Sign most of our on defense to return and really the FA budget should be mostly spent on a starting G and a blocking TE.
Roster Analysis
QB--Kyle Orton, EJ Manual, <tuel></tuel>*Tuel*
Well, Orton pulling the retirement card from up his sleeve certainly made a bad situation worse. Yeah, it isn't the greatest, but considering the dearth of talent in free agency and the draft this year the best they can hope for is to grab a youngster with potential in the draft and develop him on the practice squad (Sean Mannion,QB,Ore St). Hopefully improving the oline will help either a new guy or EJ up their game as well. QB is probably going to have to wait until 2016 for any major changes, but it would be nice if a vet presence was added. I don't honestly see anybody worth acquiring, though, and EJ and Tuel may be the best we can do. One caveat---if the new coaching staff can't bring in a QB coach with some chops, I'd seriously consider putting Jim Kelly on the payroll (not the coaching staff, though) to mentor EJ and Jeff this entire off season. Marino's input in Miami has had decent results with Tannehill, maybe Kelly can do the same with our young guys.
RB--F.Jackson, CJ Spiller, B. Brown, B. Dixon
Freddie is getting old. CJ is ineffective. Brown and Dixon are depth and change of pace. With FJax nearing the end of his career it's time to find his long term replacement. Ideally, TJ Yeldon/RB,Ala declares and lasts until our pick in third round. He's the closest thing to FJ that I've seen at the college level.
FB--M. Gray
This coaching staff seems to like Gray's versatility, but if we can add a couple of decent TE's to replace Smith and Gragg I'd seriously consider bringing Summers back into the fold to replace him here. Also wouldn't be surprised if the new crew does just that.
WR--Watkins, Woods, Goodwin, Easley/UFA, Hogan, Thigpen/RFA, Thompson/UFA
(Holley)*Palmer*
Would be nice to keep Easley, but if he doesn't bring anything at all to the table at WR he may not be back..I like Thigpen as a returner and he should keep his spot for next season. Goodwin really adds little to the offense so replacing him with Kenny Bell,WR,Neb should be an upgrade. Bell runs good routes, has decent speed, good hands,and a little bit of an attitude, kind of reminds me of Robert Woods. With a new offensive staff, I would also consider giving Mike Williams another shot (replace Hogan or even Easley) but he probably wouldn't want it.
TE--Chandler, Smith/UFA, Gragg
IMO Chandler is good enough to hang onto, even as a starter. Decent receiver and blocker, not really excellent at either. Still need significant upgrades over Smith and Gragg. Jeff Heuermann,TE,Ohio St is a solid all-around prospect, and I know Zach Miller is a little long in the tooth (30) and not the fancy name pick-up, but he's a solid blocker that's desperately needed to fill a void in this unit while Heuermann develops at this level. I'd be good with Gresham or Jordan, but they don't bring any better blocking ability than Chandler, although they might be better receivers.
G--Urbik, Pears/UFA, Richardson <campbell, morrell=""> (C.Williams)*Campbell, Morrell*
Pears should be gone. Urbik, especially if Marrone stays, probably will be shown the door also. This squad is the most in need of an overhaul. Hopefully the team will be able to land a quality starter in FA (Mike Iupati, Clint Boling, or James Carpenter) I want a top tier guy this season, not a 'settle for' like CW last year. IMO in an ideal world we can get a legit center via the draft (see the center spot for who) and move Wood into a G position opposite the new FA, but if not I'd be happy with Arie Kouandijo,G,Ala, Tre Jackson,G,Fla St or Jarvis Harrison,G,Texas A&M. Boling would be a instant starter and has good versatility in case of injuries.
OT--Glenn, Henderson, Hairston/UFA, Kuondijo
Glenn can revert to 2013 form and Henderson can improve if the shambles of the interior line are addressed, so I'm not as worried about OT as some may be. Hairston is decent, versatile depth that should come back cheap, and KuJo will get another season to find a spot on the roster, and the line. Still like giving him more reps at G.
C--Wood (move to guard)
I could live with Wood one more season at C, but would really like an upgrade, and if there in the second round Cam Erving,C,Fla St would be the guy. Erving has the ability to dominate at the next level, and Wood can be an ideal back-up and possibly help fix the mess at guard.
DE--M.Williams,Hughes/UFA, Lawson, Wynn/UFA <johnson,
*Johnson, Igbinosun* Bradham
PAY THE MAN. It's that simple. Other than a guard, the biggest FA move this off-season should be finding a way to hang onto Hughes. Than worry about re-structuring Mario, and re-signing Dareus. If he's asking for the moon, let him go. If a draft pick ends up knocking the socks off of the coaching staff, I could see the youngster pushing Lawson or Wynn out of the picture. Otherwise, the only additions to this group should be a low pick or UDFA for the practice squad. If they don't re-sign Hughes look for a current 'backer to move into his spot (Bradham) and DE depth becomes a bigger priority in FA and the draft.
DT--K.Williams, Dareus, Charles, Bryant/ERFA *Towns*
<towns>
I like this group a lot, but KW is up there with FJ and his eventual replacement is going to have to be picked up in the next couple of seasons. Charles and Bryant are good depth, so this can probably wait until 2016 as long as they re-up Marcel.
OLB--Brown, Johnson, Rivers, Dean/UFA, (Alonso, Sylvester/UFA)
In less than two years Whaley has rebuilt this squad from a glaring weakness into one of the stronger and deeper units on the team. Kiko coming back really creates a log-jam of talent, which is a good problem to have. All of these guys are young and have a high ceiling. Dean and Sylvester may move on because they just don't see themselves getting a shot, and if Spikes isn't re-signed Brown may move to MLB with Alonso and Bradham on the outside.
MLB--Spikes/UFA, Powell *Gaines*
<gaines>
Would love to keep Spikes, and if the team can afford it/Spikes wants to stay I would gladly trade Rivers' spot on the roster for Brandon. I don't have a lot of confidence that is going to happen, though, unless the team lets Hughes walk and moves a LB into his spot at rush DE (Bradham?) Gaines can use another season on the PS.
CB--Gilmore, Graham, Robey, Brooks, Cockrell (McKelvin, Butler) *Sweeting* <sweeting>
We have corners, although admittedly Brooks needs to go, he's simply too much of a liability when forced into action. Hopefully Cockrell grows so there is no need to add anybody here, as long as McKelvin and Butler can come back healthy, other than to fill practice squad spots.
SS--Searcy/UFA, D.Williams, (Meeks)
They like Searcy, hopefully another team doesn't offer him obnoxious money and they can bring him back at a reasonable price. He's going to get a raise, hopefully he's not looking for AW money, because although he's played well he isn't worth that. Duke got better, and Meeks may end up a numbers victim.
FS--A.Williams, Rambo (Ladler) *Broomfield*
Tough call here on who will back up AW, and I like the Rambo kid, but just have a gut feeling that he's one-and-done in Buffalo. Ladler is a little slow for my liking at safety but I think he gets the edge. If Searcy bolts, both could stick.
PK--Carpenter
P--Schmidt
LS--Sanborn
KOS--Gay/ERFA
Carpenter is money, as is Sanborn, Schmidt does great at dropping kicks inside the 20 and should get better at not having the occassional shank with experience. I know some don't like wasting a roster spot on a kick off specialist, but I'm OK with keeping Carpenter's leg fresh for when it's needed the most, on FG's.
----------------------------------------------------------------
2015 Draft
2-Cam Erving,C,Fla St/Spencer Drango,OT,Baylor/Arie Kouandijo, G,Ala
3-Tre Jackson,G,Fla St/Jarvis Harrison,G,Texas A&M,TJ Yeldon/RB,Ala
5a-Jeff Heuermann,TE,Ohio St/Tony Washington,OLB,Oregon/Tyrus Thompson,OT,Okla
5b-Shane Carden,QB,East Car/Kenny Bell,WR,Neb/CJ Olaniyan, DE,PennSt
6-Kaleb Johnson,G,Rutgers/Sean Mannion,QB,Ore St/Kaleb Eulls, DT,Miss St
7-Jemauria Rascu,DE,LSU/Elkino Watson,DT,S.Fla/Taiwan Jones, MLB,Mich St
Yeldon may not last until the third round, and I would hate to take a RB with the first selection this season, but I'd be willing to grab him earlier and snag one of the guards (Jackson or Harrison) in the third.
2015 Free Agency
G-Mike Iupati, Clint Boling, James Carpenter
TE-Jermaine Gresham, Cameron Jordan, Zach Miller
FB-Frank Summers
QB--Ugggh.</broomfield></sweeting></gaines></towns></johnson,></campbell,></palmer>
The 2015 off season should consist of three specific goals-Hire a new Head Coach complete with new offensive staff, upgrade the interior of the offensive line, and keep the defense (staff and roster) intact. Other than Hughes, Searcy and Spikes there are a few UFA's the team should try to keep, and should come with a reasonable price tag. IMO they should pay Hughes, can afford Searcy and the rest, but may not be able to keep Spikes depending on what kind of bank he's looking for. At this point, I'm actually expecting the opposite to happen though. Keep in mind when reading this I'm running the off-season under an almost best-case, wish-list scenario, and don't expect the team to be able to pull everything off.
Priorities---
1. Hire Cowher.
2. Re-sign Hughes and Spikes.
3. Free agent Guard and TE.
1. Let me start off by stating I am not a Cowher fan, and have lobbied in the past to NOT bring him in, even if he was willing. Considering the state of the team, I have to admit I'm warming up to the idea. The defense and special teams are set, all Cowher would have to do is generally run the show and make game-day decisions. One of the aspects of a Cowher hire are available assistants he can bring with him...Gailey for OC, Grimm for oline. Granted he's been out of the league for years, but Gailey and Grimm haven't. Granted he's already won a SB and may not have the same hunger as a younger guy, but considering a dominant defense already being in place and some talent on the offensive side of the ball the opportunity to be the first HC to win a championship with two different teams is no better anywhere in the league (yes, even San Fran) and may be enough to re-light a spark. Cowher is a fit here, Gailey can still run an offense, and Grimm could probably create a decently functioning oline with what we have plus one or two additions. If the window for success actually is short, might as well shoot for the stars now. What's the worse that can happen...we don't make the playoffs again?
2. Not ideal, but I don't think the team is going to do both. I expect Hughes to price himself out of the Buffalo market. That makes re-signing Spikes a must, and moving somebody like Bradham up into the front four rotation.
3. We are fortunate that there seems to be a lot of interior talent available in FA this off-season, and possibly even a TE. Sign most of our on defense to return and really the FA budget should be mostly spent on a starting G and a blocking TE.
Roster Analysis
QB--Kyle Orton, EJ Manual, <tuel></tuel>*Tuel*
Well, Orton pulling the retirement card from up his sleeve certainly made a bad situation worse. Yeah, it isn't the greatest, but considering the dearth of talent in free agency and the draft this year the best they can hope for is to grab a youngster with potential in the draft and develop him on the practice squad (Sean Mannion,QB,Ore St). Hopefully improving the oline will help either a new guy or EJ up their game as well. QB is probably going to have to wait until 2016 for any major changes, but it would be nice if a vet presence was added. I don't honestly see anybody worth acquiring, though, and EJ and Tuel may be the best we can do. One caveat---if the new coaching staff can't bring in a QB coach with some chops, I'd seriously consider putting Jim Kelly on the payroll (not the coaching staff, though) to mentor EJ and Jeff this entire off season. Marino's input in Miami has had decent results with Tannehill, maybe Kelly can do the same with our young guys.
RB--F.Jackson, CJ Spiller, B. Brown, B. Dixon
Freddie is getting old. CJ is ineffective. Brown and Dixon are depth and change of pace. With FJax nearing the end of his career it's time to find his long term replacement. Ideally, TJ Yeldon/RB,Ala declares and lasts until our pick in third round. He's the closest thing to FJ that I've seen at the college level.
FB--M. Gray
This coaching staff seems to like Gray's versatility, but if we can add a couple of decent TE's to replace Smith and Gragg I'd seriously consider bringing Summers back into the fold to replace him here. Also wouldn't be surprised if the new crew does just that.
WR--Watkins, Woods, Goodwin, Easley/UFA, Hogan, Thigpen/RFA, Thompson/UFA
(Holley)*Palmer*
Would be nice to keep Easley, but if he doesn't bring anything at all to the table at WR he may not be back..I like Thigpen as a returner and he should keep his spot for next season. Goodwin really adds little to the offense so replacing him with Kenny Bell,WR,Neb should be an upgrade. Bell runs good routes, has decent speed, good hands,and a little bit of an attitude, kind of reminds me of Robert Woods. With a new offensive staff, I would also consider giving Mike Williams another shot (replace Hogan or even Easley) but he probably wouldn't want it.
TE--Chandler, Smith/UFA, Gragg
IMO Chandler is good enough to hang onto, even as a starter. Decent receiver and blocker, not really excellent at either. Still need significant upgrades over Smith and Gragg. Jeff Heuermann,TE,Ohio St is a solid all-around prospect, and I know Zach Miller is a little long in the tooth (30) and not the fancy name pick-up, but he's a solid blocker that's desperately needed to fill a void in this unit while Heuermann develops at this level. I'd be good with Gresham or Jordan, but they don't bring any better blocking ability than Chandler, although they might be better receivers.
G--Urbik, Pears/UFA, Richardson <campbell, morrell=""> (C.Williams)*Campbell, Morrell*
Pears should be gone. Urbik, especially if Marrone stays, probably will be shown the door also. This squad is the most in need of an overhaul. Hopefully the team will be able to land a quality starter in FA (Mike Iupati, Clint Boling, or James Carpenter) I want a top tier guy this season, not a 'settle for' like CW last year. IMO in an ideal world we can get a legit center via the draft (see the center spot for who) and move Wood into a G position opposite the new FA, but if not I'd be happy with Arie Kouandijo,G,Ala, Tre Jackson,G,Fla St or Jarvis Harrison,G,Texas A&M. Boling would be a instant starter and has good versatility in case of injuries.
OT--Glenn, Henderson, Hairston/UFA, Kuondijo
Glenn can revert to 2013 form and Henderson can improve if the shambles of the interior line are addressed, so I'm not as worried about OT as some may be. Hairston is decent, versatile depth that should come back cheap, and KuJo will get another season to find a spot on the roster, and the line. Still like giving him more reps at G.
C--Wood (move to guard)
I could live with Wood one more season at C, but would really like an upgrade, and if there in the second round Cam Erving,C,Fla St would be the guy. Erving has the ability to dominate at the next level, and Wood can be an ideal back-up and possibly help fix the mess at guard.
DE--M.Williams,Hughes/UFA, Lawson, Wynn/UFA <johnson,
*Johnson, Igbinosun* Bradham
PAY THE MAN. It's that simple. Other than a guard, the biggest FA move this off-season should be finding a way to hang onto Hughes. Than worry about re-structuring Mario, and re-signing Dareus. If he's asking for the moon, let him go. If a draft pick ends up knocking the socks off of the coaching staff, I could see the youngster pushing Lawson or Wynn out of the picture. Otherwise, the only additions to this group should be a low pick or UDFA for the practice squad. If they don't re-sign Hughes look for a current 'backer to move into his spot (Bradham) and DE depth becomes a bigger priority in FA and the draft.
DT--K.Williams, Dareus, Charles, Bryant/ERFA *Towns*
<towns>
I like this group a lot, but KW is up there with FJ and his eventual replacement is going to have to be picked up in the next couple of seasons. Charles and Bryant are good depth, so this can probably wait until 2016 as long as they re-up Marcel.
OLB--Brown, Johnson, Rivers, Dean/UFA, (Alonso, Sylvester/UFA)
In less than two years Whaley has rebuilt this squad from a glaring weakness into one of the stronger and deeper units on the team. Kiko coming back really creates a log-jam of talent, which is a good problem to have. All of these guys are young and have a high ceiling. Dean and Sylvester may move on because they just don't see themselves getting a shot, and if Spikes isn't re-signed Brown may move to MLB with Alonso and Bradham on the outside.
MLB--Spikes/UFA, Powell *Gaines*
<gaines>
Would love to keep Spikes, and if the team can afford it/Spikes wants to stay I would gladly trade Rivers' spot on the roster for Brandon. I don't have a lot of confidence that is going to happen, though, unless the team lets Hughes walk and moves a LB into his spot at rush DE (Bradham?) Gaines can use another season on the PS.
CB--Gilmore, Graham, Robey, Brooks, Cockrell (McKelvin, Butler) *Sweeting* <sweeting>
We have corners, although admittedly Brooks needs to go, he's simply too much of a liability when forced into action. Hopefully Cockrell grows so there is no need to add anybody here, as long as McKelvin and Butler can come back healthy, other than to fill practice squad spots.
SS--Searcy/UFA, D.Williams, (Meeks)
They like Searcy, hopefully another team doesn't offer him obnoxious money and they can bring him back at a reasonable price. He's going to get a raise, hopefully he's not looking for AW money, because although he's played well he isn't worth that. Duke got better, and Meeks may end up a numbers victim.
FS--A.Williams, Rambo (Ladler) *Broomfield*
Tough call here on who will back up AW, and I like the Rambo kid, but just have a gut feeling that he's one-and-done in Buffalo. Ladler is a little slow for my liking at safety but I think he gets the edge. If Searcy bolts, both could stick.
PK--Carpenter
P--Schmidt
LS--Sanborn
KOS--Gay/ERFA
Carpenter is money, as is Sanborn, Schmidt does great at dropping kicks inside the 20 and should get better at not having the occassional shank with experience. I know some don't like wasting a roster spot on a kick off specialist, but I'm OK with keeping Carpenter's leg fresh for when it's needed the most, on FG's.
----------------------------------------------------------------
2015 Draft
2-Cam Erving,C,Fla St/Spencer Drango,OT,Baylor/Arie Kouandijo, G,Ala
3-Tre Jackson,G,Fla St/Jarvis Harrison,G,Texas A&M,TJ Yeldon/RB,Ala
5a-Jeff Heuermann,TE,Ohio St/Tony Washington,OLB,Oregon/Tyrus Thompson,OT,Okla
5b-Shane Carden,QB,East Car/Kenny Bell,WR,Neb/CJ Olaniyan, DE,PennSt
6-Kaleb Johnson,G,Rutgers/Sean Mannion,QB,Ore St/Kaleb Eulls, DT,Miss St
7-Jemauria Rascu,DE,LSU/Elkino Watson,DT,S.Fla/Taiwan Jones, MLB,Mich St
Yeldon may not last until the third round, and I would hate to take a RB with the first selection this season, but I'd be willing to grab him earlier and snag one of the guards (Jackson or Harrison) in the third.
2015 Free Agency
G-Mike Iupati, Clint Boling, James Carpenter
TE-Jermaine Gresham, Cameron Jordan, Zach Miller
FB-Frank Summers
QB--Ugggh.</broomfield></sweeting></gaines></towns></johnson,></campbell,></palmer>