Amazing fumble stats on the Cheaters

[Strongman]

A soft football helps with fumbles also.

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/?p=2932

Looks like they have been at for awhile. Maybe a little at first, but have gotten bolder with it as the years went on.

[harmonkoz]

How anyone can look at these stats and think everything is ok is beyond me. This basically proves this has been going on for quite some time. The NFL better come down on them, and come down ***** hard.

You can't tell me Belicheat did not realize or see his team does not fumble the ball.

[Strongman]

How anyone can look at these stats and think everything is ok is beyond me. This basically proves this has been going on for quite some time. The NFL better come down on them, and come down ***** hard.

You can't tell me Belicheat did not realize or see his team does not fumble the ball.

It's not proof, but it is strong evidence they are cheating.

In this age of team parity, I don't think you can be this good year in and year out. I don't buy the "Belichick is a great coach" Pat fans are saying because you can only coach someone to hold a football in so many ways. There's been no revolutionary breakthrough in how to hold a football.

They are *probably* using tampered balls.

[Strongman]

I guess their servers crashed because of all the traffic they are getting. Here it is:

The New England Patriots Prevention of Fumbles is Nearly Impossible
Posted on January 22, 2015
Yesterday I investigated whether or not the New England Patriots outperform expectations in bad weather. I had several recommendations to look at home and road data, as opposed to just home data. Mulling whether or not to undertake that further (time consuming) analysis, I watched this video:


I immediately noticed something that cannot be overlooked: the issue with ball security and fumbles. Then I remembered this remarkable fact:

The 2014 Patriots were just the 3rd team in the last 25 years to never have lost a fumble at home! The biggest difference between the Patriots and the other 2 teams who did it was that New England ran between 150 and 200 MORE plays this year than those teams did in the years they had zero home fumbles, making the Patriots stand alone in this unique statistic.

Based on the desire to incorporate full season data (not just home games, as a team theoretically bring “doctored footballs” with them on the road) I performed the following analysis:

I looked at the last 5 years of data (since 2010) and examined TOTAL FUMBLES in all games (as well as fumbles/game) but more importantly, TOTAL OFFENSIVE PLAYS RUN. Thus, we can to determine average PLAYS per FUMBLE, a much more valuable statistic. The results are displayed in the chart below. Keep in mind, this is for all games since 2010, regardless of indoors, outdoors, weather, site, etc. EVERYTHING.

(click to enlarge)

One can CLEARLY SEE the Patriots, visually, are off the chart. There is no other team even close to being near to their rate of 187 offensive plays (passes+rushes+sacks) per fumble. The league average is 105 plays/fumble. Most teams are within 21 plays of that number.

I spoke with a data scientist who I know from work on the NFLproject.com website, and sent him the data. He said:

Based on the assumption that fumbles per play follow a normal distribution, you’d expect to see, according to random fluctuation, the results that the Patriots have gotten over this period, once in 16,233.77 instances”.

Which in layman’s terms means that this result only being a coincidence, is like winning a raffle where you have a 0.0000616 probability to win. Which in other words, it’s very unlikely that it’s a coincidence.

I actually went back and researched 5 year periods for the entire NFL over the last 25 years. The Patriots ratio of 187 plays to 1 fumble is the BEST of ANY team in the NFL for ANY 5 year span of time over the last 25 years. Not was it just the best, it wasn’t close:

2010-2014 Patriots: 187 plays/fumble
2009-2013 Patriots: 156 plays/fumble
2006-2010 Colts: 156 plays/fumble
2005-2009 Colts: 153 plays/fumble
2007-2011 Patriots: 149 plays/fumble
2008-2012 Patriots: 148 plays/fumble
2010-2014 Texans: 140 plays/fumble
2004-2008 Colts: 139 plays/fumble
2006-2010 Jets: 135 plays/fumble
1999-2003 Chiefs: 134 plays/fumble
There are a few key takeaways. First and foremost, the 187 plays/fumble dwarfs even the rest of the best seasons the last 25 years. Second, the Patriots have been at the top of the NFL since 2007.

Ironically, as my study yesterday showed, the Patriots performance in wet weather home games mysteriously turned ridiculous starting in 2007. In 2006, they went 0-2. From 2007 onward, they went 14-1.

The next obvious question becomes, where were the Patriots in this statistic pre-2007? Take a look:

(click to enlarge)

As you can see, the Patriots won their Super Bowls having a below average rate of fumbles lost given today’s average of 105 plays/game. But in 2007, something happened to propel them to a much better rate (you’ll remember, that just so happened to be the same year they went 16-0 in the regular season). But even looking at these numbers, its clear how insane the 187 number is: they are almost running 100 MORE plays without a single fumble as compared to the 2002-2006 period when they won 2 of their 3 Super Bowls.

To further illustrate how these numbers are astonishing, the below graphics lay out clearly how far off the Patriots are from the rest of the league. Its evident to the eye how far removed they are from the norm. Whether we look at a histogram laying it out, where the Patriots and their 187 plays/fumble is far from the “bell shaped curve”:

(click to enlarge)

or the same chart as above, this time displaying color bands as we move away from the 105 plays/fumble average. You can see the darker red band contains all teams but the bottom 3 and the top 3, and that the bottom 3 are very close to the darker red band. Meanwhile, the Patriots are really in a league of their own:

(click to enlarge)

Could the Patriots be so good that they just defy the numbers? As my friend theorized: Perhaps they’ve invented a revolutionary in-house way to protect the ball, or perhaps they’ve intentionally stocked their skill positions with players who don’t have a propensity to fumble. Or perhaps still, they call plays which intentionally result in a lower percentage of fumbles. Or maybe its just that they play with deflated footballs on offense. It could be any combination of the above.

But regardless of what, specifically, is causing these numbers, the fact remains: this is an extremely abnormal occurrence and is NOT simply random fluctuation.

_____________________________________

UPDATE: It was suggested that I look at ALL fumbles, not just fumbles lost. With that said, let’s look there:

First, it should be noted (as the tables above show) that teams playing indoors fumble the ball less frequently. Reasons are many, foremost the ball won’t be wet from precipitation, damp from late night condensation, and a variety of other reasons. Which is why, if you look at the very first chart I posted above, you’ll see the teams who fumble the MOST/play are generally colder weather teams who play outdoors (PHI, DEN, BUF, PIT, WAS, NYG, KC, NYJ). Whereas at the other end of the spectrum, aside from the Patriots in their own world, are HOU, ATL and NO, all dome teams.

The below graphic looks at ALL fumbles over 5 year periods the last 25 years. I planned to cut this off at JUST the top 10 teams, but all we would have seen were the Patriots and dome teams. Top 15 would have accomplished the same. So I had to expand to the top 25 team periods. As you can see, of the top 25 team-periods, 17 are dome teams, including 11 of the top 15. First, let’s look at the chart, then we’ll look at comparisons to average:

(click to enlarge)

As is apparent, the Patriots are the only outdoor NFL team the last 25 years to average 70 plays/fumble or better, and they did it from 2007-2014 (four, five year periods). Its simply uncanny, as the statistics above similarly showed.

Averages:

Over the last 25 years, indoor teams averaged 43 plays/fumble (in all games they played that season, regardless of site, understanding that half their games would be played indoor sans-weather).
Since 2000, they improved to 46 plays/fumble.
Over the last 25 years, outdoor teams averaged 41 plays/fumble.
Since 2000, they improved to 43 plays/fumble.
The Patriots averaged 73 plays/fumble the past 5 years, almost 70% better than the 43 plays/fumble that outdoor teams averaged since 2000.

Next, lets look only at the current 5 year period:

The league average plays per fumble from 2010 thru 2014 was 50 plays/fumble.

For indoor teams, the average was 55 plays/fumble.
For outdoor teams, excluding the Patriots, the average was 46 plays/fumble (9 fewer).
The Patriots averaged 73 plays/fumble, almost 60% MORE than outdoor teams, and almost 50% MORE than the league average the past 5 years.

(click to enlarge)

Since we now can clearly in the data, both near term and long term, that dome-based teams (who play at least 8 games out of the elements) have an advantage in the fumble department, we can exclude them from comparisons to the Patriots.

If we do, I can produce a chart identical to the one at the very top which looked ONLY at fumbles lost. This one looks at ALL fumbles, whether lost or recovered. I think the point still remains:

(click to enlarge)

If this chart looks nearly identical, it should. The Patriots are so “off the map” when it comes to either fumbles or only fumbles lost. As mentioned earlier: this is an extremely abnormal occurrence and is NOT simply random fluctuation.

[Strongman]

If you don't believe it. There's a very easy way to test it... Look at RBs that have left New England. If their fumble rate suddenly jumps up after leaving NE, then I would say it's because of the footballs they used.

Here's one... BenJarvus Green-Ellis' stats at New England and afterwards. What happens?

http://www.nfl.com/player/benjarvusgreen-ellis/929/careerstats

He mysteriously doesn't fumble with the Patriots, but suddenly fumbles with the Bengals...

[coastal]

Wow... very curious that the site is down.

[harmonkoz]

The site is up, it was returning a database connection error. More than likely they were not prepared for the amount of traffic they were going to get.

[Strongman]

Another way the tampered ball hypothesis can be tested...

In 2006, Brady and Manning lobbied the NFL Rules Committee to allow QBs to bring their footballs to away games (before this, the home team su0lied the footballs). Because of this, we can compare fumbles of home vs. away games before and after 2007 to see if there is a difference.

[YardRat]

If you don't believe it. There's a very easy way to test it... Look at RBs that have left New England. If their fumble rate suddenly jumps up after leaving NE, then I would say it's because of the footballs they used.

Here's one... BenJarvus Green-Ellis' stats at New England and afterwards. What happens?

http://www.nfl.com/player/benjarvusgreen-ellis/929/careerstats

He mysteriously doesn't fumble with the Patriots, but suddenly fumbles with the Bengals...

As I was reading through this and the article I was thinking that would be another good data set to compile.

This a huge deal, especially when compounded with all of the other transgressions, if there really is anything of substance behind the numbers. Hell, just one game with deflated balls against the Chiefs and this team may have made the playoffs.

[harmonkoz]

Searching for 'sharpfootball' on twitter this morning. It appears this getting some traction. Wgr has picked it up.

[Strongman]

As I was reading through this and the article I was thinking that would be another good data set to compile.

This a huge deal, especially when compounded with all of the other transgressions, if there really is anything of substance behind the numbers. Hell, just one game with deflated balls against the Chiefs and this team may have made the playoffs.

Yes, and what makes this nice is it's testable.

In 2006, Manning and Brady lobbied the NFL to allow QBs to bring and use their footballs at away games. In 2007, Brady went from being a good QB to an amazing QB. I think this is because he was now using his doctored footballs at both AND away games. Previous to this, I'm guessing he just used them at homes games.

Before 2007, we should test Brady's passing stats and the teams fumbles to see if there is a difference between away and home games. If there is a big difference then it indicates he had some advantage (doctored footballs).

There's a few more things I think we can come up with as well.

I think this is really big.

[Historian]

Buffalo Bills: 10 plays/fumble

:couch:

[Joe Fo Sho]

Buffalo Bills: 10 plays/fumble

:couch:

THIS IS ABOUT NEW ENGLAND AND NEW ENGLAND ONLY! DON'T LOSE FOCUS!!!

[imbondz]

Buffalo Bills: 10 plays/fumble

:couch:

at least we can be sure we don't doctor the footballs. Or if we do we suck at that too.

[Strongman]

Yes, and what makes this nice is it's testable.

In 2006, Manning and Brady lobbied the NFL to allow QBs to bring and use their footballs at away games. In 2007, Brady went from being a good QB to an amazing QB. I think this is because he was now using his doctored footballs at both AND away games. Previous to this, I'm guessing he just used them at homes games.

Before 2007, we should test Brady's passing stats and the teams fumbles to see if there is a difference between away and home games. If there is a big difference then it indicates he had some advantage (doctored footballs).

There's a few more things I think we can come up with as well.

I think this is really big.

One thought I had after posting the above is. There is probably a Spygate effect that might make comparisons between the pre-Spygate and post-Spygate era which might make it difficult to isolate some trends.

[Joe Fo Sho]

In 2006, Manning and Brady lobbied the NFL to allow QBs to bring and use their footballs at away games. In 2007, Brady went from being a good QB to an amazing QB. I think this is because he was now using his doctored footballs at both AND away games. Previous to this, I'm guessing he just used them at homes games.

I would almost doubt that he deflated the balls previous to this new rule that he lobbied for. If that were the case, then the away team would have deflated balls too, which wouldn't yield an advantage. Unless somehow they were able to keep the 12 of their balls separate from the 12 of their opponents. I guess they could do that, if any team could it would be the Deflatriots.

[Strongman]

I would almost doubt that he deflated the balls previous to this new rule that he lobbied for. If that were the case, then the away team would have deflated balls too, which wouldn't yield an advantage. Unless somehow they were able to keep the 12 of their balls separate from the 12 of their opponents. I guess they could do that, if any team could it would be the Deflatriots.

That's a REALLY good point. You are probably right that they wouldn't chance that.

So basically it is starting to look like their wins are the result from changing from one cheating system up to 2006 (Spygate) to another in 2007 and beyond (Deflategate).

[Joe Fo Sho]

That's a REALLY good point. You are probably right that they wouldn't chance that.

So basically it is starting to look like their wins are the result from changing from one cheating system up to 2006 (Spygate) to another in 2007 and beyond (Deflategate).

Tom Brady

2006 Stats - 3529 YDS 24 TDS 12 INTS
2007 Stats - 4806 YDS 50 TDS 8 INTS


**** this guy so much.

[trapezeus]

when you have outliers like this and their times they beat the spread when playing at home, it usually means they are doing something no one else is doing.

What is so pathetic to me is that "journalists" aren't writing these stories. it's bloggers. and these numbers take away the "they hate us because they ain't us" defense by patriot fans. these are damning numbers that require explanation. and the "journalist" are writing puff pieces and letting belichick and brady off the hook with simple press conferences without items like these to say, "these are the figures, how can you explain it. it can't be blind luck. do you think under inflating the balls gives you a big advantage"

[trapezeus]

one other point, remember that one of those fumbles last year was the pats running back just letting go of the ball because he was making a cut against the bills. and he got benched.

[imbondz]

Tom Brady

2006 Stats - 3529 YDS 24 TDS 12 INTS
2007 Stats - 4806 YDS 50 TDS 8 INTS


**** this guy so much.


Lol. What are a manning stats during that same period?

[Joe Fo Sho]

Lol. What are a manning stats during that same period?

Peyton Manning

2006 Stats - 4397 YDS 31 TDS 9 INTS
2007 Stats - 4040 YDS 31 TDS 14 INTS

Manning has been pretty consistent during his career with the Colts, usually hovering around 4200 YDs plus or minus a couple hundred and 26-33 TDs, except in 2004 when he had 49 TDs. His stats exploded when he got to Denver, obviously.

[Strongman]

Lol. What are a manning stats during that same period?

Peyton Manning

2006 4397 YDS 31 TDS 9 INT
2007 4040 YDS 31 TDS 14 INT

[Lucidvizion]

They should kick the Patriots out of the NFL and create a new expansion team. I'm completely disgusted.

[Strongman]

They should kick the Patriots out of the NFL and create a new expansion team. I'm completely disgusted.

I'd rather see Kraft be forced to sell his team, give him back his original investment minus whatever fines he should pay, and the rest of the money used to reimburse the fans of other teams.

[DynaPaul]

I'd rather see Kraft be forced to sell his team, give him back his original investment minus whatever fines he should pay, and the rest of the money used to reimburse the fans of other teams.

Kraft is the Emperor and Belichick Darth Vader. Tom Brady is just Darth Maul waiting to be cut in half.

[Ingtar33]

fantastic statistical analysis.

[Generalissimus Gibby]

They should kick the Patriots out of the NFL and create a new expansion team. I'm completely disgusted.

Move the Rams to L.A and move the Cheaties to St. Louis and call them the Stallions, and make those blue and red seats at the Ed make sense.

[YardRat]

I'd rather see Kraft be forced to sell his team, give him back his original investment minus whatever fines he should pay, and the rest of the money used to reimburse the fans of other teams.

A law firm with their eyes on getting 'on the map' could get some decent pub with a class action lawsuit against the NFL.

Hit the league where it hurts...in the pocket book. Reimbursement for public funds poured into stadiums over the years, fraud, the threat against their anti-trust status...

[trapezeus]

A law firm with their eyes on getting 'on the map' could get some decent pub with a class action lawsuit against the NFL.

Hit the league where it hurts...in the pocket book. Reimbursement for public funds poured into stadiums over the years, fraud, the threat against their anti-trust status...

i suspect the legal team of the NFL is ready to take this on and dismiss it immediately, but it would be awesome. i'd sign on. i can calculate my season ticket purchases, souveniers, etc, get a cost i paid expecting fair football to only be handed the WWE. i'd be ready to sign right now for 75% of that cost.

[Strongman]

A law firm with their eyes on getting 'on the map' could get some decent pub with a class action lawsuit against the NFL.

Hit the league where it hurts...in the pocket book. Reimbursement for public funds poured into stadiums over the years, fraud, the threat against their anti-trust status...

If the money is there, the lawyers will follow.

On a side note, I think it's interesting that the Nevada US Senators are turning their attention to the NFL. I'm sure Vegas is losing money on this.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/deflategate-patriots-nfl-harry-reid-dean-heller-114513.html

[Lucidvizion]

I'd rather see Kraft be forced to sell his team, give him back his original investment minus whatever fines he should pay, and the rest of the money used to reimburse the fans of other teams.

**** Kraft too. I'd rather see him stuck with a worthless football team that no longer has an NFL revenue stream but still has contractual obligations to pay out to players and staff.

[Mr. Pink]

Steven Ridley apparently missed the memo about the deflated balls.

9 fumbles in 52 games

[Lucidvizion]

One could only imagine how many he'd lose with properly inflated balls.

[Oaf]

For those on twitter, etc, we've got to do our part to build the sharpfootball traction so other writers take notice (though I'm sure it can on its own).

[Strongman]

Steven Ridley apparently missed the memo about the deflated balls.

9 fumbles in 52 games

The question is would he have even more fumbles if he was on another team?

[Oaf]

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/?p=2932

[Mr. Pink]

Brady fumbled in week 3 vs the Raiders - recovered himself

Jamie Collins (LB) fumbled in week 5 vs the Bengals - team recovered

Brady fumbled in week 8 vs the Bears, RB james White recovered

James Develin (FB) fumbled in week 9 against Denver, own recovery

Danny Aiken (LS) fumbled in week 12 against Detroit, punter recovered

Julian Edelman fumbled week 15 against Miami, own recovery

6 total fumbles at home, 10 total fumbles away for the year. Not a huge variation.

In comparison their opponents fumbled 19 total times on the year. For a Bills comparison, the Bills fumbled 22 times on the year, and their opponents 20 times.

The fumbling thing is much ado about nothing, imo.

[Strongman]

Brady fumbled in week 3 vs the Raiders - recovered himself

Jamie Collins (LB) fumbled in week 5 vs the Bengals - team recovered

Brady fumbled in week 8 vs the Bears, RB james White recovered

James Develin (FB) fumbled in week 9 against Denver, own recovery

Danny Aiken (LS) fumbled in week 12 against Detroit, punter recovered

Julian Edelman fumbled week 15 against Miami, own recovery

6 total fumbles at home, 10 total fumbles away for the year. Not a huge variation.

In comparison their opponents fumbled 19 total times on the year. For a Bills comparison, the Bills fumbled 22 times on the year, and their opponents 20 times.

The fumbling thing is much ado about nothing, imo.

Fair enough. Please go to http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/?p=2932 and explain, exactly, where his methodology and analysis is faulty.

[Meathead]

well youre not factoring in that belichick is such a total genius that he wills his team not to fumble

[Strongman]

Here's the analysis Sharp did concerning bad weather and the Patriots

The Patriots and Tom Brady Suspiciously Outperform Expectations in Wet Weather

Posted on January 21, 2015
According to the NFL, the New England Patriots were found to have introduced 11 under inflated footballs of the 12 they were required to provide during Sunday’s AFC Championship game vs the Colts. The footballs were said to be underinflated by two pounds per square inch. The incentive to having the Patriots offense play with underinflated footballs is that they are easier to grip, throw and catch as compared to properly inflated footballs.

Naturally, the immediate question arises: “How long have the Patriots been playing with underinflated footballs?” That’s impossible to know, but if the Patriots and Tom Brady believed it was to their advantage to underinflate the footballs for easier grip, presumably they would be doing it in wet weather, much like the weather in New England for the game vs the Colts.

I went through all NFL game books for the Patriots home games since the 2005 season. What I found was, at a minimum, intriguing. The game books list the “game weather”. First, the data I share below assumes this weather report is at least somewhat accurate. I did go back and cross reference every game vs historical daily weather reports for the area. That said, its possible one or two additional games should be added in case the game book reported clear conditions when it was, in fact, wet.

Second, I presumed that Tom Brady, the quarterback, was the primary individual who would benefit most from underinflated footballs, so I excluded the 2008 season when he did not play due to injury suffered in week 1. I won’t speculate as to whether the direction to underinflate the football was given by Brady or not, but I simply removed games he did not start.

The first table below shows the Patriots performance in wet weather in a game by game basis. After the Patriots suffered losses in their only two home wet weather games in 2006, a strange phenomenon occurred:

The Patriots went 14-1 (93%) in Tom Brady’s home games played in wet weather since 2007. Their only loss was to the San Francisco 49ers in 2012. For some comparison, the Patriots went 51-9 (85%) in home games played in dry weather during that same period. On average, in both wet and dry weather, the Patriots were favored by approximately 9 ppg. In the NFL, 9 point favorites should win the game approximately 81% of the time.

(click to enlarge)

As you can see from the averages at the bottom, Tom Brady put up remarkably similar numbers in wet weather as he did in dry weather: 7.4 yds/att vs 7.6 yds/att, a 99 passer rtg vs 101 passer rtg, and a slightly better TD:INT ratio in wet weather as compared to dry weather.

The second table (below) looks more in depth at the results of those 15 wet weather home games since 2007 as compared to the Patriots performance in dry weather home games. The compared results are strikingly different:

The Patriots went 31-29 ATS (52%) in dry weather home games, but 10-5 ATS (67%) in wet weather home games. The oddsmakers on the games projected the Patriots would score an average of 28 ppg, whether the conditions were wet or dry. But the Patriots scored 35 ppg in wet weather (+7) vs 31 ppg in dry weather. They also held opponents to 5 ppg fewer in wet weather home games.

Thus, their average win improved from 30.7-19.6 to 34.6-14.3. In other words, they went from winning games by 11 points to winning by over 20 points on average, despite being favored by 9 ppg in both scenarios.

(click to enlarge)

This analysis does not prove or disprove anything. It certainly may fuel the fire of conspiracy theorists, but without any concrete evidence that the Patriots were underinflating footballs for Tom Brady in wet weather, we can only look at the game results. While obviously suspicious, despite how strongly it appears “something” is helping the Patriots in wet weather, nothing can be proven by this study.

I always watched the Patriots and saw how they performed in wet weather. Anecdotally it seemed like they “got it”: they knew the pass rush was slower and while other teams shifted AWAY from the pass and to more ground based games in the wet weather, it seemed the Patriots shifted the opposite direction, and passed the ball more frequently. I always thought this was just “Bill Belichick and Tom Brady being smart and ahead of the game”. Perhaps that is still the case. Or perhaps they passed more because their offense played with underinflated footballs in wet weather while their opponent played with regulation footballs. Its total speculation. I am of the opinion that we will never know. This whole allegation could be a lot of hot air. I am not opining on what happened, whether other teams do it too, the level of advantage which is gained, etc. I am simply providing actual data on game results and letting you use the data in conjunction with news/media reports to form your own conclusions.

[Mr. Pink]

Fair enough. Please go to http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/?p=2932 and explain, exactly, where his methodology and analysis is faulty.

So the fact they got lucky and recovered their own fumbles makes it damning evidence?

They're not the only cold weather team to fumble more on the road than at home with low fumble total for the year. Hell even the Browns only fumbled 17 times total with 8 at home. And no one will ever accuse them of cheating. :rofl:

[Strongman]

So the fact they got lucky and recovered their own fumbles makes it damning evidence?

They're not the only cold weather team to fumble more on the road than at home with low fumble total for the year. Hell even the Browns only fumbled 17 times total with 8 at home. And no one will ever accuse them of cheating. :rofl:

You need to look at it using statistics. He's looking at how many standard deviations (SD) the Patriots** fumbles are away from the mean. When something is that many SDs away from the mean, it is highly unlikely to happen by chance alone.

If you had a die and it rolled it twenty times and the "6" came up 17 out of 20 times, wouldn't you think something might be funky with that die?

[YardRat]

I love how this is bringing out the number crunchers and putting anything they can get their hands on under a microscope.

[Strongman]

I love how this is bringing out the number crunchers and putting anything they can get their hands on under a microscope.

I'm surprised it hasn't gotten more traction. You would think when something only has a 1 in 16,233.77 chance of happening, more people would think something was amiss.

[Mr. Pink]

You need to look at it using statistics. He's looking at how many standard deviations (SD) the Patriots** fumbles are away from the mean. When something is that many SDs away from the mean, it is highly unlikely to happen by chance alone.

If you had a die and it rolled it twenty times and the "6" came up 17 out of 20 times, wouldn't you think something might be funky with that die?

If the Pats would have lost >half of their home fumbles, nothing would have even come out of this. The fact they somehow recovered every single one of them makes it stand out.

I won't dispute it helps in the passing game, but it also has to make you wonder if guys like Manning, Roethlisberger and Rodgers use underinflated footballs too as the three of them can also put up big numbers in bad weather games.

[Strongman]

If the Pats would have lost >half of their home fumbles, nothing would have even come out of this. The fact they somehow recovered every single one of them makes it stand out.

I won't dispute it helps in the passing game, but it also has to make you wonder if guys like Manning, Roethlisberger and Rodgers use underinflated footballs too as the three of them can also put up big numbers in bad weather games.

You need to read it all. Towards the end, he has an update that looks at all fumbles. It still points to the Patriots** not having as many:

The Patriots averaged 73 plays/fumble, almost 60% MORE than outdoor teams, and almost 50% MORE than the league average the past 5 years.

Now, he did leave out teams that play indoors which is seems valid because those teams have the advantage of not playing half of their games in adverse weather.

Assuming Sharp's premise is correct, if other QBs did something, then their teams would also benefit by having less fumbles. The data doesn't support that so that doesn't seem to be the case.

I think it's more likely that the 6th round afterthought is a fraud.

[Meathead]

Since 2010, New England Has the Lowest Fumble Rate in the NFL

New England has had an uncanny ability to hold on to the football for quite some time. According to data compiled by Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis, the Patriots fumble far less than any other team that plays outdoors, where the elements can make the football harder to handle. Beginning in the 2010 season, Patriots players have fumbled (whether lost or recovered) once every 73 touches from scrimmage, which is 52% better than the league average. The next best team is the Ravens, who have fumbled once every 55 touches.

Additionally, according to Stats, LLC, the six players who have played extensively for the Patriots and other teams in this span all fumbled far less frequently wearing the New England uniform. Including recovered fumbles, Danny Amendola, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, Wes Welker, Brandon LaFell and LeGarrette Blount have lost the ball eight times in 1,482 touches for the Patriots since 2010, or once every 185.3 times. For their other teams, they fumbled 22 times in 1,701 touches (once every 77.3).

The Patriots didn’t return a request for comment.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/patriots-always-keep-a-tight-grip-on-the-ball-1422054846

hopefully the wsj picking this theme up will ensure it has legs looong after the superbowl, keeps the public talking about this much longer after that, and forces the nfl to no be able to sweep it under the rug (again) and harshly punish the cheating cheat cheaters who cheat and cheat and cheat

[Strongman]

Cool. It's in the traditional media now.

[Discotrish]

One thing I like about these stats is that it gives us a pretty good idea how long the cheating has been going on.

Patti

[Meathead]

Let's not rush to judgment, we need to wait until the superbowl is over and everyone forgets about it ... err, i mean all the facts are in.

- the commish

[Meathead]

seriously, is there any way possible the nfl CANT come down hard on the cheatriots now?

i mean for gods sake this has got to be the most awkward situation possible for them now
- marcias ridiculous performance where he lied about as well as my mom at church, and was extremely arrogant and flippant as you could possibly be. that image is burned in ppls minds now
- belicheat, who is famous for micromanaging everything under the sun that is remotely related to his team, suddenly has no idea how game balls are managed. yeah no we totally believe you
- stats out the gazoo that shows the cheats miraculous domination of fumble statistics that are like 40+% better than the next best team (!!) since '10, demonstrating a very long period of consistent cheating
- on top of the infamous spygate whitewash that got them a slap on the wrist that was insulting to anyone with moral values
- with the gross mishandling of the ray rice situation still fresh in the publics mind and the general feeling that the nfl has become a bunch of low character individuals on and off the field

what they really should do is suspend both of them for the sb. wont ever happen but it would be the right thing to do. since they wont do that, seems they will have to come down very hard on the cheats next season. belicheat should be suspended the whole season. brady at least four games if not eight if not the season. will it happen? will anything happen other than token pick and money penalties? or will we simply watch as the nfl becomes a bigger joke than the nhl, and essentially an extension of the wwe?

[starrymessenger]

seriously, is there any way possible the nfl CANT come down hard on the cheatriots now?

i mean for gods sake this has got to be the most awkward situation possible for them now
- marcias ridiculous performance where he lied about as well as my mom at church, and was extremely arrogant and flippant as you could possibly be. that image is burned in ppls minds now
- belicheat, who is famous for micromanaging everything under the sun that is remotely related to his team, suddenly has no idea how game balls are managed. yeah no we totally believe you
- stats out the gazoo that shows the cheats miraculous domination of fumble statistics that are like 40+% better than the next best team (!!) since '10, demonstrating a very long period of consistent cheating
- on top of the infamous spygate whitewash that got them a slap on the wrist that was insulting to anyone with moral values
- with the gross mishandling of the ray rice situation still fresh in the publics mind and the general feeling that the nfl has become a bunch of low character individuals on and off the field

what they really should do is suspend both of them for the sb. wont ever happen but it would be the right thing to do. since they wont do that, seems they will have to come down very hard on the cheats next season. belicheat should be suspended the whole season. brady at least four games if not eight if not the season. will it happen? will anything happen other than token pick and money penalties? or will we simply watch as the nfl becomes a bigger joke than the nhl, and essentially an extension of the wwe?

Yeah Belly the micromanager who in the very same presser in which he denied knowledge of deflated balls went on at length on how he does all sorts of things with practice balls to make them as unmanageable as possible. Don't ask him. You have to ask Teflon Tom instead. They are both boldfaced liars. Good thing for them that Kraft has Goodell's pecker in his pocket.

[coastal]

The NFL is pure trash. Where's Goodell in all of this... you know... the Commissioner of the whole enchilada announcing they will get to the bottom of this scandal and if a systemic practice of cheating is uncovered, the most severe penalties will be handed out.

thats not happening though. The NFL has been mute. They're waiting and watching and praying this blows over into the whisps of the offseason.

meat nailed it. It's the WWE.

[DynaPaul]

Not for nothing but these aberrant stats have been around since before SpyGate came to light. The fumble statistics are just more numbers pointing to their dishonesty as a franchise. I think everyone is just fed up with the NFL not doing anything about their "success" and nailing them on any charge possible. Seriously, Belichick should have been banished from the game after SpyGate unfolded.

[harmonkoz]

Slate is running it now too.

http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2015/01/ballghazi_the_new_england_patriots_lose_an_insanely_low_number_of_fumbles.html

[Meathead]

Slate is running it now too.

http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2015/01/ballghazi_the_new_england_patriots_lose_an_insanely_low_number_of_fumbles.html

awesome

make this as uncomfortable as possible for goodell, as long as possible. now i hope the wwe meme catches on too. just embarrass the hell out of goodell and the nfl and force them to deal with this super harshly - as it should have been done the first ****ing time they got caught

[better days]

If the Pats would have lost >half of their home fumbles, nothing would have even come out of this. The fact they somehow recovered every single one of them makes it stand out.

I won't dispute it helps in the passing game, but it also has to make you wonder if guys like Manning, Roethlisberger and Rodgers use underinflated footballs too as the three of them can also put up big numbers in bad weather games.

Manning obviously didn't use a deflated ball. His throws this year have been awful.

Roethlisburger & Rodgers don't need an underinflated ball because they both have big enough hands to get a good grip on the ball, unlike Brady.

[ICRockets]

I do think it's possible that the deflated balls were new for the Patriots this year. That's because I have long held that the Patriots have been using HGH regularly for the last decade. I believe it helped Junior Seau revitalize his career, I believe it helped Tom Brady return from a season-ending injury to become twice the quarterback he was prior, I believe it helped Tedy Bruschi recover from his stroke...I think it's no coincidence that Deflate-Gate is happening shortly after the NFL finally introduced testing for HGH into their banned substances program.

[harmonkoz]

I do think it's possible that the deflated balls were new for the Patriots this year. That's because I have long held that the Patriots have been using HGH regularly for the last decade. I believe it helped Junior Seau revitalize his career, I believe it helped Tom Brady return from a season-ending injury to become twice the quarterback he was prior, I believe it helped Tedy Bruschi recover from his stroke...I think it's no coincidence that Deflate-Gate is happening shortly after the NFL finally introduced testing for HGH into their banned substances program.

How does HGH help you hold on to the ball?

[BuffaloRedleg]

Friends, we live in an amazing time.

[Strongman]

Advanced NFL Stats guys are now picking up on the post 2007 Patriots** fumble correlation with their own analysis.

https://twitter.com/Adv_NFL_Stats/status/558722164397182976

[coastal]

Wow

[Discotrish]

Depressingly, the Bills have been third WORST in number of carries per fumble lost category. No doubt the weather has something to do with that, the dome teams rank pretty well. And the Patriots of course are much better than the dome teams when it comes to hanging onto the ball. Through amazing statistical coincidence of course!

Thanks to Strongman for highlighting this interesting info!

http://blogs.westword.com/latestword/tom.brady.memes.9.jpg

Patti

[Strongman]

Depressingly, the Bills have been third WORST in number of carries per fumble lost category. No doubt the weather has something to do with that, the dome teams rank pretty well. And the Patriots of course are much better than the dome teams when it comes to hanging onto the ball. Through amazing statistical coincidence of course!

Thanks to Strongman for highlighting this interesting info!
Patti

I first saw this information on a Jets' Forum. If someone is going to find dirt on the Patriots**, that's the first place to look.

As a science geek, the statistics really jumped out at me. I was also looking for something that happened right around 2007 when Brady went from being a good QB, to suddenly becoming talked about as one of the best QBs of all time.

I think we are going to find that playing with a slightly deflated ball has a synergistic effect. First off, turnovers correlate highly with winning and running the ball effectively and taking time off the clock is also advantageous. It's probably easier for Brady to throw those quick passes more accurately. Once you get a lead on an opponent, they have to rely on passing more so you can adjust your defense to that. You can even use cheaper players who suddenly become more effective and spend more money on key players, and on and on...

What surprises me most is how low tech it is. It's brilliant, but cheating.

[Mr. Pink]

Manning obviously didn't use a deflated ball. His throws this year have been awful.

Roethlisburger & Rodgers don't need an underinflated ball because they both have big enough hands to get a good grip on the ball, unlike Brady.

Roethlisberger had more fumbles on the year than Brady and Manning did...he plays pretty reckless though and his line doesn't always do him any favors but Leveon Bell had 373 touches on the year 0 fumbles. The Steelers fumbled 17 times total on the year. Ben also had the same INT rate as Brady. Cheating?

Here's the funny thing...teams that throw a lot more than they run, tend to fumble less.

Steelers 612 passes, 423 runs, 17 fumbles. Patriots 609 passes, 438 runs, 16 fumbles. Broncos 607 passes, 443 runs, 17 fumbles. Shocking stuff.

But I know it's more fun to just hate on the Patriots and think they're cheating to get a leg up on the league especially from a Bills fan perspective since they've owned the Bills for over the past decade. I wonder if fans in the 70s thought the Dolphins were cheating too.

[Strongman]

Roethlisberger had more fumbles on the year than Brady and Manning did...he plays pretty reckless though and his line doesn't always do him any favors but Leveon Bell had 373 touches on the year 0 fumbles. The Steelers fumbled 17 times total on the year. Ben also had the same INT rate as Brady. Cheating?

Here's the funny thing...teams that throw a lot more than they run, tend to fumble less.

Steelers 612 passes, 423 runs, 17 fumbles. Patriots 609 passes, 438 runs, 16 fumbles. Broncos 607 passes, 443 runs, 17 fumbles. Shocking stuff.

But I know it's more fun to just hate on the Patriots and think they're cheating to get a leg up on the league especially from a Bills fan perspective since they've owned the Bills for over the past decade. I wonder if fans in the 70s thought the Dolphins were cheating too.

Again, it's the degree of how little they fumble which is probably 4-5 SDs from the mean. In my job, when something is 3SD from the mean, we stop and investigate to find out what's wrong.

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Fumble-Chart-2.png

And how come we don't see this with them before 2007 when the rule was changed to allow away teams to use their own game balls?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8D62RRIgAAGEc5.png

[GvilleBills]

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for a response from Goodell.
No WiFi signal under Kraft's desk.

[better days]

How does HGH help you hold on to the ball?

HGH or Human Growth Hormone, helps an OLD body behave like a YOUNG body.

[Meathead]

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Fumble-Chart-2.png


tell me why that isnt the smoking gun right there

tell me why congress shouldnt be starting proceedings to go after the nfl for the sham product theyve allowed the cheaters to put out for the last seven years

[sudzy]

Again, it's the degree of how little they fumble which is probably 4-5 SDs from the mean. In my job, when something is 3SD from the mean, we stop and investigate to find out what's wrong.

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Fumble-Chart-2.png

A

Buffalo must be over inflating their balls.

[Strongman]

Buffalo must be over inflating their balls.

No, we have the fumbling machine known as CJ Spiller.

[harmonkoz]

HGH or Human Growth Hormone, helps an OLD body behave like a YOUNG body.

Yes I know that, what I was questioning was his premise that the deflated footballs had only been going on this year. He seemed to point out that HGH was in use the previous years (which it probably was). However these stats point to the Patriots fumbling, or lack thereof for a much longer time period. That is what I was questioning. How does HGH help you hold on to the football? It doesn't.

[sudzy]

How does HGH help you hold on to the football? It doesn't.

A bigger, stronger body could handle a hit better without fumbling. That goes without saying. But, NE wasn't the only team using HGH. So that would not explain the gap between them and everyone else. Under inflated balls might.

[coastal]

tell me why that isnt the smoking gun right there

tell me why congress shouldnt be starting proceedings to go after the nfl for the sham product theyve allowed the cheaters to put out for the last seven yearsif something like this doesn't happen.. or the NFL doesn't clamp down...

im done.

[Strongman]

tell me why that isnt the smoking gun right there

tell me why congress shouldnt be starting proceedings to go after the nfl for the sham product theyve allowed the cheaters to put out for the last seven years

It is a smoking gun, but I also think the other chart makes it more clear something dramatic changed with the Patriots** after the rule change.

If this doesn't get resolved fairly quickly, I won't be surprised to see Congress look into it.

[Strongman]

The guys over at Advanced NFL Statistics looked at the work Warren Sharp did regarding the Patriots** lack of fumbles. They pretty much agreed with his assessment that the Patriots** seem to fumble a lot less than other teams. He didn't conclude if it was due to coaching or having an unfair advantage. He did notice something had changed in 2007. Anyhow, it's worth a read.

http://alturl.com/umq6s

[sudzy]

If this doesn't get resolved fairly quickly, I won't be surprised to see Congress look into it.

Yes, the Pats cheated and Belichick should be strung up for this. But, is it wrong for me to want Congress to focus on more important stuff like, the economy, terrorism, immigration?

[Meathead]

while this is of course only entertainment, its still a huge business in america with unprecedented enormous advantages in the market courtesy of congress. ppl (some ppl anyway) expect their major sports entertainment to be fair and real, at least as real as something like football can get

if the nfl is going to allow it to be turned into a three ring vaudeville act where cheating is essentially tolerated like it was the wwf then congress has an obligation to reset the rules on those enormous financial advantages they give to the nfl

[harmonkoz]

while this is of course only entertainment, its still a huge business in america with unprecedented enormous advantages in the market courtesy of congress. ppl (some ppl anyway) expect their major sports entertainment to be fair and real, at least as real as something like football can get

if the nfl is going to allow it to be turned into a three ring vaudeville act where cheating is essentially tolerated like it was the wwf then congress has an obligation to reset the rules on those enormous financial advantages they give to the nfl

I am of the mind that they should not get any breaks. Let it stand on it's own merit. But I have that opinion of just about any type of business.

[Strongman]

Another interesting stat:

If you look at just Brady's fumbles as a % of Sacks you get something like:

2001-2006: 59 fumbles / 182 sacks (32%)
2007-2014: 37 fumbles / 182 sacks (20%)

[coastal]

Nothing short of banned from the game...

[Strongman]

Brady's QBR jump after 2007 is interesting:


Brady: '01 to '06 = 88.5
Brady: '07 to '14= 99.7

Manning: '01 to '06 = 99.7
Manning: '07 to '14=101.0

[Strongman]

This new blog entry is fascinating!


New England Patriots Fumble More Often When Playing for Other Teams

By Warren Sharp

Last Thursday’s groundbreaking article on the impossibly real fumble prevention statistics by the New England Patriots was certainly a perfect lesson on the power of social media and sending a critical story “viral”. I tried to take a very unassuming, impartial look into a highly controversial topic, based not on opinion, but on statistics. What caught the attention of many was that it was uniquely different from the other “theory based” pieces on this topic, and contained undeniable concrete evidence that whatever was happening in New England since 2007 was more than just ridiculously abnormal. It was absolutely not a random fluctuation in the data and was extremely unlikely to be a mere coincidence.

Read more here:

http://t.co/CmsJv3Gnkf

[harmonkoz]

This new blog entry is fascinating!


New England Patriots Fumble More Often When Playing for Other Teams

By Warren Sharp

Last Thursday’s groundbreaking article on the impossibly real fumble prevention statistics by the New England Patriots was certainly a perfect lesson on the power of social media and sending a critical story “viral”. I tried to take a very unassuming, impartial look into a highly controversial topic, based not on opinion, but on statistics. What caught the attention of many was that it was uniquely different from the other “theory based” pieces on this topic, and contained undeniable concrete evidence that whatever was happening in New England since 2007 was more than just ridiculously abnormal. It was absolutely not a random fluctuation in the data and was extremely unlikely to be a mere coincidence.

Read more here:

http://t.co/CmsJv3Gnkf

I really do not understand how the major media (Except WSJ and Slate) can ignore this.

[Discotrish]

http://media0.giphy.com/media/DO411SRLV9g8E/200.gif

Patti

[Strongman]

I really do not understand how the major media (Except WSJ and Slate) can ignore this.

Me either. It seems like it would be a big story.

[imbondz]

can't wait til next year when they lead the league in fumbles because they can't get away with deflating balls anymore.

[Woodman]

Billy Billy Billy this is a big one .

[Strongman]

There's a new blog post up now at http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/

Stats Show the New England Patriots Became Nearly Fumble-Proof after 2006 Rule Change Proposed by Tom Brady

[harmonkoz]

There's a new blog post up now at http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/

Stats Show the New England Patriots Became Nearly Fumble-Proof after 2006 Rule Change Proposed by Tom Brady

I thought the first blog posting was the smoking gun, well the gun is on friggin' fire now.

http://scontent-b.cdninstagram.com/hphotos-xaf1/t51.2885-15/s306x306/e15/10954269_316005745274202_883496943_n.jpg

[Discotrish]

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/UPDATED-Patriots-Fumble-Rate-Histogram-Comparison-00-06-v-07-141.png

Terrific graphic.

TOM Terrific graphic, I should say.

Patti

[Strongman]

Warren Sharp has a new blog entry out (Jan. 28th) where he's defending his analysis from detractors. It's a good read:

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/

[Skooby]

So much for keeping all the balls below regulation play.

[imbondz]

I really do not understand how the major media (Except WSJ and Slate) can ignore this.

I think this is finally getting some national attention


http://sports.yahoo.com/news/deflate-gate-triggers-stat-spat-as-analysts-attempt-to-solve-why-patriots-don-t-fumble-003107565-nfl.html

[Strongman]

During Belicheat's press conference, he made the claim that he likes using slippery, muddy balls during their practices. If that's true, I find it peculiar that can't find a single picture of this on the internet. All of the practice balls look pretty pristine.

[Strongman]

Brian Burke at Advanced Football Analytics looked at the Cheats fumble data a little further. He didn't throw out dome teams and corrected for various field/game conditions . This is the most comprehensive analytics to date:

http://i1039.photobucket.com/albums/a479/hatch113/oppfum_zpsa52cfee7.png

While he can't exclude cheating, it still looks suspicious. Interestingly, ATL has also come under cheating allegations (piping in crowd noise).

Link: http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/analysis/team-analysis/227-a-look-at-ne-s-fumbles

[Bellowing4DaBills]

Like Florence Griffith Joyner's sprint times, in sports, you know something is up/deflated when a stat is so ridiculously beyond the mean.

[Strongman]

Patriots locker room attendant tried to put unapproved ball into AFC final

A locker room attendant for the New England Patriots tried to introduce an unapproved special teams football into last month's AFC Championship Game, the same game at the center of the "Deflategate" allegations, four sources familiar with the investigation told "Outside the Lines."

One source said that the attendant assigned to the officials' locker room, identified as 48-year-old Jim McNally, has been interviewed by investigators for Ted Wells, the attorney the NFL hired last month to lead an investigation into allegations the Patriots intentionally used underinflated footballs on offensive plays in the first half of that game against the Indianapolis Colts, which New England won 45-7.

Three sources said that McNally has worked Patriots games for a decade, and has been in charge of the officials' locker room at Gillette Stadium since at least 2008. In the first half of the AFC Championship Game, the sources said, McNally tried to give the unapproved football to an alternate official who was in charge of the special-teams footballs. Those footballs are known as "kicking balls" or "K balls."

Before every NFL game, footballs are inspected and measured by NFL officials in their locker room before they can be approved for in-game use. The "K balls" are used for special teams, and not by the offenses of either team.

Jim McNally, highlighted in upper left, attempted to give an unapproved football to an alternate official who was in charge of the special-teams footballs for the AFC Championship Game.
NFL officials put a special mark or stamp on each ball approved for use on offensive possessions, as well as the "K balls" used on special teams, to ensure only properly inspected and approved footballs are used in that game. Walt Anderson, the referee for the AFC title game, had personally inspected and marked each of the footballs that were approved for use in that game.

The alternate official, Greg Yette, became suspicious when he noticed that the football McNally handed him did not have the proper markings on it, three sources said. One of those sources added that Yette found it surprising that the officials' locker room attendant was on the field, trying to hand him a ball, because officials' locker room attendants don't typically have ball-handling responsibilities during NFL games. Once McNally tried to introduce the unapproved football into the game, the source said, Yette notified the NFL's vice president of game operations, Mike Kensil, who was at the game in the press box.

Sources said they are not sure at what point during the first half McNally tried to introduce the impermissible football to Yette. They didn't know his motivation for doing so, either. Yette, when reached by Outside the Lines, declined to comment.

An Outside the Lines reporter approached McNally at his home in Amherst, New Hampshire, earlier this month, but he said, "I can't talk to you," waving the reporter away as he walked up his driveway.

McNally is a part-time employee who was hired by The Kraft Group, a company owned by Patriots owners Robert Kraft. Kelly Way, the director of operations for TeamOps at Gillette Stadium, said NFL game-day employees are paid by The Kraft Group. McNally is not listed in the Patriots' main switchboard directory.

It is not known if McNally is the same locker room attendant who reportedly ducked into a bathroom with a bag of footballs for 90 seconds before taking them out to the field before the start of the AFC Championship Game. On Jan. 26, FoxSports.com's Jay Glazer reported that a locker-room attendant from the Patriots allegedly took footballs "from the officials locker room to another area" on the way to the field, and that Wells' investigators have video of that. Pro Football Talk later reported that the attendant stopped in a restroom with the game balls for 90 seconds. That locker room attendant, according to Foxsports.com, is a "strong person of interest."

The Patriots, who won the Super Bowl over the Seattle Seahawks on Feb. 1, came under scrutiny prior to the AFC Championship Game, when the Colts reportedly alerted the NFL during the regular season that the Patriots may be using underinflated footballs after the teams met Nov. 16.

A source told Outside the Lines that Kensil decided to personally go down to the officials' locker room at halftime of the Patriots-Colts game to check the game balls, in part, because of the suspicions McNally's actions raised.

Kensil did not respond to requests for comment but it has also been reported that the Colts noticed an underinflated football after an interception by linebacker D'Qwell Jackson. Jackson said at the Pro Bowl that he didn't notice that the football was underinflated. Also, Troy Vincent, the NFL's executive vice president of football operations, told "60 Minutes Sports" that Colts General Manager Ryan Grigson told league officials in the second quarter of the AFC Championship Game that the Patriots might be tampering with footballs.

One source said Kensil personally checked the PSI (pounds per square inch) levels of all 12 footballs the Patriots had for use on offense and found that 11 of those 12 were underinflated by "one to two pounds." They were reinflated to the league-required level and were returned for use in the second half.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick has attributed the 11 underinflated game balls to atmospheric conditions and has said the Patriots "try to do everything right; we err on the side of caution." Team owner Robert Kraft, in a strong defense of his head coach and quarterback Tom Brady, said: "I want to make it clear that I believe unconditionally that the New England Patriots have done nothing inappropriate in this process or are in violation of NFL rules."

He added "I would expect and hope that the league would apologize to our entire team" if the Wells investigation "is unable to definitively determine that our organization tampered with the air pressure in the footballs."

The NFL hired Wells on Jan. 23 to lead an investigation into Deflategate. In a statement released late last month, Wells said he expected his investigation to go on for "at least several more weeks" and asked that "everyone involved or potentially involved in this matter avoids public comment concerning the matter until the investigation is concluded. The results will be shared publicly."

Dean Blandino, the NFL's head of officiating, said at a Super Bowl news conference: "There was an issue that was brought up during the first half, a football came into question, and then the decision was made to test them at halftime. There's an investigation going on, I can't really get into specifics."

When asked for comment by OTL, Blandino texted, "I can't elaborate with the investigation still ongoing."

The NFL, though a spokesman, told OTL: "We're not commenting on the details of the ongoing investigation."

This story was updated to fix attribution on the Patriots' locker room attendant stopping in a restroom for 90 seconds.

http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/12340408/new-england-patriots-employee-gave-unapproved-ball-official-lines-reports

[CommissarSpartacus]

"One source said Kensil personally checked the PSI (pounds per square inch) levels of all 12 footballs the Patriots had for use on offense and found that 11 of those 12 were underinflated by "one to two pounds." They were reinflated to the league-required level and were returned for use in the second half."

Why does this guy neglect to mention that the latest reports are that only one ball was under-inflated by 2 psi and the other eleven were just "a tic under"?

As this guy admits, there is one ONE source claiming they were all way under.

I believe it was Chris Mortenson who reported that.

And the kicking football thing is weird. All the game balls are marked. Why would this guy run out on to the field and try to give an official an unmarked kicking ball?

If the Patriots are the personification of evil, why would they do something so blatantly stupid?