IlluminatusUIUC
01-28-2015, 05:38 PM
I think we've heard enough about deflated balls in the other threads, and it's obvious by now the NFL isn't going to levy any punishments before the game. So let's talk about the game.
I think the recency bias of Seattle stealing the NFCCG and New England crushing the Colts is leading people to think it would be a Pats blowout. The Super Bowl line swung more than 3 points from Seattle -2 to New England -1.5 last I looked, a massive swing for a game of this magnitude.
IMO Seattle will win
1) Wilson's atrocious day and Green Bay's horrendous coaching overshadowed how well Seattle's defense played. Holding Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers to one TD despite four turnovers in the first half? That game could have easily been 24 or 28-0 midway through the 2nd quarter.
2) The AFC was horribly weak this year. After Manning's arm fell off and Baltimore's entire secondary went to the hospital ward, the only real threat to knock them out of the playoffs was Pitt, who they never played. Indy is still a two man show that gets exposed against the top tier opponents.
Seattle's biggest weakness is their lack of any real dynamic pass catcher. Baldwin and Kearse are useful cogs, but I wouldn't expect either of them to get open frequently on Browner/Revis. They can spring them on bunch sets and such, but Belichick + prep time is extremely hard to fool. They have no tight end of note either. So it's crucially important that they stay out of 3rd and long type situations, and IMO the game is on Wilson and Lynch as running threats to grind up the Pats defense. The Pats rushing D statistically is quite good, but IMO that's more a function of their passing offense building leads that force others to abandon it.
I think Seattle can frustrate Brady like they did to Manning, but I don't think they run away with it like last year because they don't have a Percy Harvin type big play guy anymore. I'm thinking a lower scoring, 20-14 type game TBH.
I think the recency bias of Seattle stealing the NFCCG and New England crushing the Colts is leading people to think it would be a Pats blowout. The Super Bowl line swung more than 3 points from Seattle -2 to New England -1.5 last I looked, a massive swing for a game of this magnitude.
IMO Seattle will win
1) Wilson's atrocious day and Green Bay's horrendous coaching overshadowed how well Seattle's defense played. Holding Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers to one TD despite four turnovers in the first half? That game could have easily been 24 or 28-0 midway through the 2nd quarter.
2) The AFC was horribly weak this year. After Manning's arm fell off and Baltimore's entire secondary went to the hospital ward, the only real threat to knock them out of the playoffs was Pitt, who they never played. Indy is still a two man show that gets exposed against the top tier opponents.
Seattle's biggest weakness is their lack of any real dynamic pass catcher. Baldwin and Kearse are useful cogs, but I wouldn't expect either of them to get open frequently on Browner/Revis. They can spring them on bunch sets and such, but Belichick + prep time is extremely hard to fool. They have no tight end of note either. So it's crucially important that they stay out of 3rd and long type situations, and IMO the game is on Wilson and Lynch as running threats to grind up the Pats defense. The Pats rushing D statistically is quite good, but IMO that's more a function of their passing offense building leads that force others to abandon it.
I think Seattle can frustrate Brady like they did to Manning, but I don't think they run away with it like last year because they don't have a Percy Harvin type big play guy anymore. I'm thinking a lower scoring, 20-14 type game TBH.