Current State of the Buffalo Bills: An objective look

[OpIv37]

Current players under contract: 59

Current cap space: ~$17.25 million
(Bleacher Report (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2378636-2015-nfl-free-agency-a-cap-space-guide-for-every-team/page/5) says $31 million, minus $9.75 for McCoy and $4.75 for Cassell, plus 750k for Kiko). FYI this doesn't include the rookie cap allocation, so the amount the team can spend is actually less.

Draft picks: 6 (none in the first round, only 3 in the first 5 rounds).

UFA's and RFA's:
C.J. Spiller UFA
Kyle Orton UFA
Jerry Hughes UFA
Erik Pears UFA
Brandon Spikes UFA
Keith Rivers UFA
Da'Norris Searcy UFA
Chris Hairston UFA
Marcus Easley UFA
Lee Smith UFA
Jarius Wynn UFA
Stevenson Sylvester UFA
Larry Dean UFA
Marcus Thigpen RFA
Corbin Bryant ERFA
Chris Hogan ERFA
Jordan Gay ERFA

Clearly, Spiller and Orton have been replaced. But this team has < $17.25 million and 6 draft picks (only 3 in the first 5 rounds) to:
1. Upgrade the OL
2. Re-sign or replace Searcy
3. Re-sign or replace Hughes
4. Re-sign or replace Spikes
5. Upgrade TE
6. Do something about DL Depth (Bryant and Wynn are both unsigned)
7. Do something about WR depth (Hogan and Thigpen are both unsigned)
8. Do something about OL depth (I'm no big fan of Pears or Hairston but without them we don't even have enough bodies)

Ouch.

And people wonder why I'm concerned.

[X-Era]

Sorry... any thread started by you and using the word "objective" in the title is suspect. LOL.

[OpIv37]

Sorry... any thread started by you and using the word "objective" in the title is suspect. LOL.

say what you want- the facts and numbers are all there and it ain't pretty.

[BidsJr]

hahahahahaha objective!

[OpIv37]

hahahahahaha objective!

How can you say it's not objective? It's real numbers and a list of real players who aren't signed.

[The Jokeman]

Current players under contract: 59

Current cap space: ~$17.25 million
(Bleacher Report (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2378636-2015-nfl-free-agency-a-cap-space-guide-for-every-team/page/5) says $31 million, minus $9.75 for McCoy and $4.75 for Cassell, plus 750k for Kiko). FYI this doesn't include the rookie cap allocation, so the amount the team can spend is actually less.

Draft picks: 6 (none in the first round, only 3 in the first 5 rounds).

UFA's and RFA's:
C.J. Spiller UFA replaced with McCoy
Kyle Orton UFA replaced with Cassel
Jerry Hughes UFA replace with Trent Cole or LaMarr Woodley and Hau'Oli Kikaha@ pick 50)
Erik Pears UFA replace with Ritchie Incognto
Brandon Spikes UFA replace with Stevenson Sylvester
Keith Rivers UFAI don't think we need to replace him
Da'Norris Searcy UFA replace with DaWan Landry
Chris Hairston UFAreplace with Adam Snyder
Marcus Easley UFAwill re-sign
Lee Smith UFA replace with Jermaine Gresham
Jarius Wynn UFA will re-sign or maybe sign a NT type like Kenrick Ellis or maybe bring back Alex Carrington
Stevenson Sylvester UFA [He wasn't on the 53 man roster last year[/b]
Larry Dean UFA will re-sign
Marcus Thigpen RFA will re-sign
Corbin Bryant ERFA will re-sign
Chris Hogan ERFA will re-sign
Jordan Gay ERFA will re-sign

Clearly, Spiller and Orton have been replaced. But this team has < $17.25 million and 6 draft picks (only 3 in the first 5 rounds) to:
1. Upgrade the OL
2. Re-sign or replace Searcy
3. Re-sign or replace Hughes
4. Re-sign or replace Spikes
5. Upgrade TE
6. Do something about DL Depth (Bryant and Wynn are both unsigned)
7. Do something about WR depth (Hogan and Thigpen are both unsigned)
8. Do something about OL depth (I'm no big fan of Pears or Hairston but without them we don't even have enough bodies)

Ouch.

And people wonder why I'm concerned.

I've bolded my plan of attack. As I think you're forgetting that Incognito is an upgrade on the OL. The guy missed the 2013 because of a suspension not because of injury. Yes he's over 30 but he's still got to be better than Cyril Richardson was. Yes, there are questions at the other OG but perhaps a veteran UFA can be had or we draft someone in Round 3. I think Searcy can be replaced for a low cost guy Dawan Landry could do that. Hughes will be tougher to replace but maybe we can go with a pass rusher in Round 2 and add a veteran like Lamarr Woodley (see ties to Whaley in Pittsburgh and experience in a 34 D) or maybe it be pretty cool if could land Trent Cole. Replacing Spikes is a question mark but maybe a healthy Sylvester could do something. I agree we need to Upgrade TE. Hopefully it be with Jordan Cameron, Julius Thomas or Clay or Gresham. Bryant is an EFA so he's not going anywhere, Wynn is just a guy. Hogan and Thigpen are both RFA and can't see them going anywhere. In terms of O-line depth I brought up Adam Snyder before as he can play OG and OT and has played under Roman briefly in San Fran as a possible Hairston replacement.

[X-Era]

say what you want- the facts and numbers are all there and it ain't pretty.

Replace Searcy- Can be done from the existing roster IMO
Replace Hughes- An issue if he isn't resigned and must be addressed or compensated for in other areas as I said
Replace Spikes- See Hughes
Upgrade TE- A wish not a must. Yet something I think we will actually do
Do something about DL depth- I dont consider Bryant or Wynn not easily replaceable... not a big concern in my mind
Do something about WR depth- Again neither Hogan nor Easley nor Thigpen is irreplaceable
Do something about OL depth- OL depth is not currently the issue; its the quality of the starters at OG. I would upgrade one of the G spots from FA and hopefully the draft. I think we will do this.

[justasportsfan]

Sorry... any thread started by you and using the word "objective" in the title is suspect. LOL.

OP is the most objective poster on any mb. He objects to everything.

[Skooby]

What sort of objective look makes you think the team isn't getting better ?? It's not even March 10th and we've made a few huge moves to get better.

[OpIv37]

What sort of objective look makes you think the team isn't getting better ?? It's not even March 10th and we've made a few huge moves to get better.

McCoy makes us better but at a steep price and a high opportunity cost. Plus the lack of OL will hold him back.

Cassell is not an upgrade over Orton and he came at the price of worsening an already weak draft position.

[The Jokeman]

McCoy makes us better but at a steep price and a high opportunity cost. Plus the lack of OL will hold him back.

Cassell is not an upgrade over Orton and he came at the price of worsening an already weak draft position.

You really thinking flipping a 5th for a 6th is a major deal? Heck we could probably trade our 5th during the draft and get a lower 5th and 6th back come draft day as needed. In terms of Cassel vs an UFA option that's the big question but to me he was the best QB available.

[Skooby]

McCoy makes us better but at a steep price and a high opportunity cost. Plus the lack of OL will hold him back.

Cassell is not an upgrade over Orton and he came at the price of worsening an already weak draft position.

If we win, is it a steep cost or the cost of doing business ? Cassel helped lead the Pats to a 11-5 record & is much more experienced than EJ, keep in mind that he still might be a back-up.

[THATHURMANATOR]

Another **** thread
We will check back when free agency and the draft is over

[better days]

How can you say it's not objective? It's real numbers and a list of real players who aren't signed.

It is not objective because as I said before, McCoy's contract numbers can be adjusted if that needs to be done & more than likely there will be a couple of cuts that create some more cap space.

[Mr. Miyagi]

McCoy makes us better but at a steep price and a high opportunity cost. Plus the lack of OL will hold him back.
If we had brought in a bunch of mid level guys with that money you would've said we're shooting for mediocrity again. There's only so much money to spend, and great players cost more. Either way you're not going to be happy.

Your constant *****ing act is getting really old. Jesus, take a vacation will ya?

[psubills62]

OL is clearly a need, always has been. I've seen a couple guys who have been cut, like Doug Free, Todd Herremans, etc. We have cap room to sign 1-2 guys easily.

Searcy didn't do squat for several years, now he's a priority? Screw that noise. Pretty sure we have a couple drafted safeties on the roster already who could fill in. I didn't think Spikes was a big deal to replace, personally. Hughes is talented, but Ryan's scheme is what powers the defense. The guy got what, ~8 sacks or something out of Aaron Maybin? I think we'll find someone.

I've wanted to upgrade TE for a long time, but reality is that it's not a priority position. Maybe draft someone on Day 3 and see how they turn out. I thought Marqueis Gray (sp?) was intriguing too.

I've said for a long time that this draft should be focused more on the DL than most people think. We've gone two years now without drafting a single DL, and that's not a recipe for success no matter how much talent we have starting there now. You see teams like GB draft DL every year even if it's not a reported need because it's such an important position. I'd like to see 2+ DL drafted, personally.

Not concerned about WR depth. Hogan had his moments, so maybe re-sign him for cheap, but in the end you can always find depth WR's out there.

Get 2 starters on OL, draft one for depth and we should be OK.

They won't fill every hole, but they have opportunity to make the team decently stronger, especially on offense. I'm interested to see what they do in FA and the draft. Have to assume they'll target a couple OL in FA.

[OpIv37]

If we had brought in a bunch of mid level guys with that money you would've said we're shooting for mediocrity again. There's only so much money to spend, and great players cost more. Either way you're not going to be happy.

Your constant *****ing act is getting really old. Jesus, take a vacation will ya?
I'll take a vacation when this org starts doing moves that are actually good.

We had the money to make moves that were more than mediocre. Now we don't, and we only improved at a position that could have been improved at a lower cost and is neutralized by the lack of an OL.

[OpIv37]

It is not objective because as I said before, McCoy's contract numbers can be adjusted if that needs to be done & more than likely there will be a couple of cuts that create some more cap space.

McCoy wouldn't restructure in Philly and is on record as not being happy about the trade and saying he wasn't going to make it easy on us. But sure, keep up this delusion that he'll restructure...

[OpIv37]

If we had brought in a bunch of mid level guys with that money you would've said we're shooting for mediocrity again. There's only so much money to spend, and great players cost more. Either way you're not going to be happy.

Your constant *****ing act is getting really old. Jesus, take a vacation will ya?
And one more thing: this entire argument is based on you creating a hypothetical then getting pissed at your assumption of how I would have reacted. What a load of crap.

[YardRat]

You left nose tackle and DE off of the list.

[Night Train]

The actual off-season of player movement starts Tuesday. The Bills have already made a preemtive strike with 3 aquisitions at helping the weak link of this team, the Offense.

The normal order of business for this time of year is where ALL 32 teams are.

In the next couple of weeks, we'll see a veteran or three cut due to their cap figure. Designate a couple more for post June 1st cuts..

We'll sign 2-3 FA's..then Draft 6 players..

Then fill out our roster with other vet FA's & camp bodies..

Camp will start in July and we'll see where the Bills are at.


But as of today, EVERY team is short players and has their normal work to put in over the next few months to complete the roster.

[Topas]

OPs message:
Whaley clearly sucks. He has not signed a single FA prior to the start of Free Agency. And dont get me started about the draft. Whaley still hasn't drafted a single player in 2015. What is he doing? And we did not trade for Luck for a 7th round pick. And honestly, fleecing Indy via trades is the easiest thing there is. So Whaley clearly sucks !!!

[YardRat]

My two cents---

UFA's and RFA's:
C.J. Spiller UFA-gone
Kyle Orton UFA-gone
Jerry Hughes UFA-gone
Erik Pears UFA-gone
Brandon Spikes UFA
Keith Rivers UFA-gone
Da'Norris Searcy UFA-gone
Chris Hairston UFA
Marcus Easley UFA
Lee Smith UFA
Jarius Wynn UFA
Stevenson Sylvester UFA
Larry Dean UFA
Marcus Thigpen RFA
Corbin Bryant ERFA
Chris Hogan ERFA
Jordan Gay ERFA

I would expect them to re-sign most of the guys in bold, and none are going to cost much more than minimum except for Spikes.

1. Upgrade the OL---expect one more free agent and a draft pick (1 of 6, C Irving or G Jackson in second or third))
2. Re-sign or replace Searcy---already on roster (AW, DW, Meeks, Rambo, Ladler, but may bring in Landry)
3. Re-sign or replace Hughes---already on roster, probably Bradham
4. Re-sign or replace Spikes---would like to, but Rex may bring in Harris
5. Upgrade TE---Heuermann from Ohio St in draft (2 of 6)
6. Do something about DL Depth (Bryant and Wynn are both unsigned)--I would expect at least Bryant back, both will be cheap
7. Do something about WR depth (Hogan and Thigpen are both unsigned)---I would expect both to be back, plus a draft pick (3 of 6, let's say Bell from Nebraska)
8. Do something about OL depth (I'm no big fan of Pears or Hairston but without them we don't even have enough bodies)---Already have Ritchie, plus the draft pick, plus a FA.

I'm going to assume we also take a late flyer on a QB in the draft (4 of 6), so that leaves us with 2 still left.
We still need a NT.

Most of the above will be addressed cheaply (re-signings) or through the draft (still cheap with the rookie wage scale).

We needed a guard---check.
We needed a RB---check.
We needed a QB---check.

I would also assume that Shady's deal is going to get re-done for about 5mil cap relief, so that put's us at about 22mil to cover rookies, our own FA's for depth (only about 8 guys), and pick up a couple of players in FA (OL, NT, ILB...maybe a TE) plus we've already hypothetically addressed WR, TE, QB, and Oline in the draft and have two picks to spare (DL, DB or LBer?)

IMO that's very doable.

[Night Train]

My two cents---

UFA's and RFA's:
C.J. Spiller UFA-gone
Kyle Orton UFA-gone
Jerry Hughes UFA-gone
Erik Pears UFA-gone
Brandon Spikes UFA
Keith Rivers UFA-gone
Da'Norris Searcy UFA-gone
Chris Hairston UFA
Marcus Easley UFA
Lee Smith UFA
Jarius Wynn UFA
Stevenson Sylvester UFA
Larry Dean UFA
Marcus Thigpen RFA
Corbin Bryant ERFA
Chris Hogan ERFA
Jordan Gay ERFA


That's pretty much how I viewed it. Harris for Spikes if that's their preference. Lee Smith could be replaced. Hughes and Searcy walk but can be replaced internally (to be determined)

[YardRat]

Hey Op, look at it from this perspective...if the team had re-signed Levitre and Byrd (which you pissed and moaned about when they didn't), right now we'd be over the cap, still have all of the needs you listed in the opening post, plus adding to it the need to replace a S and G that are over-paid and probably won't be able to stay on the field against this season.

[mightysimi]

McCoy wouldn't restructure in Philly and is on record as not being happy about the trade and saying he wasn't going to make it easy on us. But sure, keep up this delusion that he'll restructure...

I'm pretty sure McCoy wouldn't take a pay cut. Not restructure. There is what 1M left of the guaranteed money? I'm quite sure he will take upfront guaranteed money now as opposed to hanging on to a high base salary with no guarantees.

[Mahdi]

I think OP is actually right. The moves the Bills have made so far can easily blow up in their faces and prevent them from actually making good moves in FA on Tuesday.

McCoy -- Sick player, his best season was playing behind a very good OL. Spending a big chunk of cap space on a RB when you have major needs at pass rusher, OL, TE and inside LB is dangerous.

Then you go out and get a QB for 5 mil who may or may not be better than any other QB on the market like Sanchez or Hoyer. In fact I'd rather have any of those two than Cassel.

Now we have 15-17 mil left and major holes to fill.

We have to replace the following players, either because they are FA or because they are weak links:

Cyril Richardson (Incognito is not a sure thing), Pears, Henderson (was a weak link at RT IMO, always needed help in pass pro, weak run blocker)

Jerry Hughes -- Huge cost to replace a 10 sack player who was our best pure pass rusher.

Chandler -- Is staying but needs to be upgraded -

DL -- I think we need more interior linemen - KW has injury history and is 33, Charles is a good rotational player but we need another - We currently have 3 DT and 2 DE on the roster

A starting CB - Neither Leodis or Gilmore have proven to be true SHUTDOWN CBs

In summary we need:

2 OG
1 OT
1 DL
1 TE
1 pass rusher
1 CB

If McCoy does not restructure we will have a hard time filling holes needed to make a playoff push

[Mr. Pink]

Da'Norris Searcy will be the biggest loss, roster wise, this offseason.

[MikeInRoch]

I took an objective look at the calendar. March 5th. Not September.

[Mahdi]

Da'Norris Searcy will be the biggest loss, roster wise, this offseason.

He is the easiest to fill.

We have Duke who might even be better than Searcy. We also have Baccari Rambo, Meeks and Kenny Ladler. All those guys have a good shot to start.

Even if none of those guys look good. Vet safeties are cheap.

[DraftBoy]

He is the easiest to fill.

We have Duke who might even be better than Searcy. We also have Baccari Rambo, Meeks and Kenny Ladler. All those guys have a good shot to start.

Even if none of those guys look good. Vet safeties are cheap.

The only one that actually fits the role though is Duke and he's struggled badly at times.

I've never been a Searcy fan but this D plays to his strengths as an in the box run stopper. None of the safeties you mentioned have come close to proving themselves at that assignment yet.

[Mahdi]

The only one that actually fits the role though is Duke and he's struggled badly at times.

I've never been a Searcy fan but this D plays to his strengths as an in the box run stopper. None of the safeties you mentioned have come close to proving themselves at that assignment yet.

Ya they are more coverage safeties. Ladler has the characteristics to be a box safety and so does Duke. Duke just needs more consistent playing time like Searcy got.

[DraftBoy]

Ya they are more coverage safeties. Ladler has the characteristics to be a box safety and so does Duke. Duke just needs more consistent playing time like Searcy got.

He could also use to learn how not to bite on every play fake, how to stop looking for big hits and make more form tackles.

[Mahdi]

He could also use to learn how not to bite on every play fake, how to stop looking for big hits and make more form tackles.

Ya but that can come with more experience. He looked good last year in small samples. Obviously he is going to struggle early in his career.

[Buddo]

Fwiw, Bryant and Hogan along with Brown the WR, have all been tendered today. Crisis narrowly averted?

[better days]

Hey Op, look at it from this perspective...if the team had re-signed Levitre and Byrd (which you pissed and moaned about when they didn't), right now we'd be over the cap, still have all of the needs you listed in the opening post, plus adding to it the need to replace a S and G that are over-paid and probably won't be able to stay on the field against this season.

To be fair to Op, I wanted Levitre resigned as well...but not at the price the Titans paid him.