Can we really win this way?

[BuffaloRedleg]

If Whaley and Rex are 100% successful in building the team they want (or more have been forced to build due to lack of QBs available), can we win a Superbowl?

Since the Bills do not seem to be pursuing a legit QB this off-season, it is forcing me to consider whether it actually is possible to win a Superbowl in the modern NFL with a great run game and great defense but bad QB play.

That seems to be what Rex and Whaley are going for here, so we better get used to it.

For arguments sake lets say they are successful at building a powerful and effective run game and our defense remains as good as last year. Lets say that Cassel/EJ play as well as they have in the past and are ineffective most of the time and are merely not blowing the game for their team on their best day.

Can that team win a Superbowl? Can it make the playoffs?

I know they don't really have a choice, so before you stomp your feet and say they have no other option we are talking not about whether or not they should do it but whether or not you are confident it will work. Also, before anyone says it Russel Wilson is an excellent QB and Dilfer/Johnson were outliers (and from what I think is a different era). In fact, I think that Wilson might be the worst QB to win a SB in the last 10 years and he is light years better than anyone we have.

Just curious what everyone thinks around here as I've been debating this with friends a lot lately. My opinion is that they have to do it, but I can't see how it will work. The Colts, for example, are considered in a class far ahead of us (and a SB contender possibly) yet are worse than us in almost every phase of the game. That's just my opinion and not really the thing I want to debate here, but you get my point. I hope this works, and it would be pretty cool to win old school, but I think the NFL is deliberately built to enable their marquee QBs to succeed.

Thoughts?

[SpikedLemonade]

Play-offs -- perhaps.

Win a SB -- no.

I assume it is progress for the next number of years until we find that QB.

[BuffaloRedleg]

Play-offs -- perhaps.

Win a SB -- no.

I assume it is progress for the next number of years until we find that QB.

Right? That has to be the endgame for them. Wait until they can attract a 2nd tier/top 3rd tier QB who wants to go to a team built to win now through free agency, or maybe draft someone they think they can coach up to be decent.

Either way, as my friend said they're shuffling chairs on the Titanic until the get a QB.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

They can win a Super Bowl, but it has to be one of those years where everything breaks right for them.

[BillsOwnAll]

Trent dilfer did it

[psubills62]

I'm confused. Are you talking about just this year or in the years to come? Because yes, we certainly are in a poor position for QB's this year. But then you say "so we better get used to it." Why? Are they not going to try to improve the QB position after this year?

[jimmifli]

Yes. Last year's defense could have beaten any team in the league.

And a team that believes it can win is dangerous, even with a subpar offense.

Is it probable? No.

In this era you must be able to score points.

[Downinfloflo]

After 15 years, Just making the playoffs, Buffalo will act like they just won the Super Bowl, So I would say yes.

[soapman]

Since the Bills do not seem to be pursuing a legit QB this off-season, it is forcing me to consider whether it actually is possible to win a Superbowl in the modern NFL with a great run game and great defense but bad QB play.


Who were they supposed to "Target?" Market is dry as the Sahara.

[DesertFox24]

This model will work for a few years. What they want to do is develop a qb with this running game def model and still win games as he develops. Everyone forgets that is what pats did with brady in his early years. Granted he played well as well but he was not rewriting the record books till moss showed up.

That being said they have the wR weapons, need a Te, better ol.

Maybe they draft a petty and develop him for a year or maybe EJ gets it and we are lucky.

But As other posters said we will have a chance at playoffs but highly doubtful super bowl. Also we are competing for wild card still. Brady has two more years since he has not been injuried like Peyton

[BuffaloRedleg]

I'm confused. Are you talking about just this year or in the years to come? Because yes, we certainly are in a poor position for QB's this year. But then you say "so we better get used to it." Why? Are they not going to try to improve the QB position after this year?

I'm just saying that if they are 100% effective at what the intend to do this year-- to run the ball well and play good defense-- can they win the Superbowl? Is this a viable method to win in this league?

[BuffaloRedleg]

This model will work for a few years. What they want to do is develop a qb with this running game def model and still win games as he develops. Everyone forgets that is what pats did with brady in his early years. Granted he played well as well but he was not rewriting the record books till moss showed up.

That being said they have the wR weapons, need a Te, better ol.

Maybe they draft a petty and develop him for a year or maybe EJ gets it and we are lucky.

But As other posters said we will have a chance at playoffs but highly doubtful super bowl. Also we are competing for wild card still. Brady has two more years since he has not been injuried like Peyton

But what about the current model they have for the team, run the ball and play sound defense?

Is that good enough to overcome the QBs we have on the roster so that we can win a SB?

I'm thinking no of course, which is a bummer.

It's a shame the NFL is designed to have only 1 path to success in the league these days.

[Night Train]

I just wish to get the last wild card slot into the playoffs. Once you're in, anything can happen.

[Historian]

I think Cassell is going to surprise some folks, I really do.

[chris66]

I think Cassell is going to surprise some folks, I really do.
I dont, I think he will be responsible for giving up points. He is not very good.

If the Bills make the playoffs they could go on a run, but making the playoffs without a qb is highly unlikely no matter how good the defense is. You need a qb in this league.

[GreedoII]

unless they have the 2000 Ravens D then no way they can win the Bowl but playoffs is a very good possibilty.

[EricStratton]

The team has an young potentially elite number 1 WR, a very good #2 WR, a developmental pass catching TE, they are looking to ink a very good pass catching TE and they have a group of RB's who are all above average at catching the ball.

Add in a OC who will throw the ball.

Why are we being looked at as a run first team.

[DesertFox24]

But what about the current model they have for the team, run the ball and play sound defense?

Is that good enough to overcome the QBs we have on the roster so that we can win a SB?

I'm thinking no of course, which is a bummer.

It's a shame the NFL is designed to have only 1 path to success in the league these days.

In my opinion we are competing for wild card. I could be wrong but without an offense capable of 24 points a game I think we will end up losing a game or two we should have won. Reason will be an off day by def or running game.

This is a short term solution to help win games and develop a qb. The pats and seahawks have done this or are currently doing it.

We will not be bad enough to pick first overall with Whaley and Rex so no luck for us. Our best hope would be getting a guy like flacco in mid first. As a result this wi be the model until we get a guy who is above average

[JohnnyGold]

They can win a Super Bowl, but it has to be one of those years where everything breaks right for them.

This is true about every team in the league, every year, and will be for every year that the NFL exists.

The best team doesn't always win. In fact, how do you even ascertain who the best team is, when teams play division-centric schedules and compete in a one-and-done tournament.

There is no such thing as "a best team" in the league, there is just the squad who ran the guantlet that year, caught some breaks, got some matchups, some calls, had a ball or two that didnt move an 8th of an inch when a receiver hit the ground, etc. etc. etc.

If Dez makes that catch vs. Green Bay, or Lynch gets the call against NE, the 2014 season would go down completely different in the books.

The fact is, we have now assembled a roster that will get us into the field of 12 (14?) that plays one-off games in January to determine a champion. Why worry about if we CAN win, let's just enjoy the ride for the first time in 20 some odd years.

[trapezeus]

they are building what they can. this idea of not pursuing a qb is ridiculous. there is nothing to pursue. There is no top flight QB in the draft, there are no free agency qbs worth anything.

What they know is:

1. they have a reason to believe the defense can continue to be good.
2. the qb play, no matter what is acquired or improved on within the season, will most likely not be able to win games on their own throwing 30-45 times a game.
3. there are no qbs who have a high probability of coming in and saving a season via FA, trades or draft.

So they then are forced to fortify the positions of strength (d, signing hughes, keep drafting LBs, CBs, etc) and run game (pick up backs, pick up OL, pick of TE) T

This should be good enough to get you to a playoff game. which at this point is an unbelieve thing for bills fans.

i do not believe the bills have the appetite of a rebuild. i don't think rex is ready to start over, that was last year for him. he wants to win and they seem to be realistic to the situation they are in.

The QB position is either solved with EJ getting it magically and having a system that actually works, or they are going to have to find a guy in the draft this yera or next and give him time learning on the sideline with no reason to be rushed into the game.

[BuffaloRedleg]

they are building what they can. this idea of not pursuing a qb is ridiculous. there is nothing to pursue. There is no top flight QB in the draft, there are no free agency qbs worth anything.

What they know is:

1. they have a reason to believe the defense can continue to be good.
2. the qb play, no matter what is acquired or improved on within the season, will most likely not be able to win games on their own throwing 30-45 times a game.
3. there are no qbs who have a high probability of coming in and saving a season via FA, trades or draft.

So they then are forced to fortify the positions of strength (d, signing hughes, keep drafting LBs, CBs, etc) and run game (pick up backs, pick up OL, pick of TE) T

This should be good enough to get you to a playoff game. which at this point is an unbelieve thing for bills fans.

i do not believe the bills have the appetite of a rebuild. i don't think rex is ready to start over, that was last year for him. he wants to win and they seem to be realistic to the situation they are in.

The QB position is either solved with EJ getting it magically and having a system that actually works, or they are going to have to find a guy in the draft this yera or next and give him time learning on the sideline with no reason to be rushed into the game.

Why doesn't anyone actually read? I'm not saying that there is a buffet of QBs available and they are ignoring them. I even say in the bolded text in the very first sentence that they have been forced into this situation with the lack of QBs available.

All I'm asking is whether or not a team that is built to run first and play great defense and is 100% successful at their plan can win the Superbowl. I'm not even really talking about the Bills her totally. Insert any team name.

Can a team that is great at the run, bad at QB, great at D win the Superbowl?

It's not just you, I have no idea why people are talking about how good they think Cassel will be etc. It is very hard to start a thread here with more than 3 sentences of text, so that's my fault.

[trapezeus]

Why doesn't anyone actually read? I'm not saying that there is a buffet of QBs available and they are ignoring them. I even say in the bolded text in the very first sentence that they have been forced into this situation with the lack of QBs available.

All I'm asking is whether or not a team that is built to run first and play great defense and is 100% successful at their plan can win the Superbowl. I'm not even really talking about the Bills her totally. Insert any team name.

Can a team that is great at the run, bad at QB, great at D win the Superbowl?

It's not just you, I have no idea why people are talking about how good they think Cassel will be etc. It is very hard to start a thread here with more than 3 sentences of text, so that's my fault.

fair enough. sorry to not read the whole thread or your initial post. i think with the context that i set up above, the situation is the best of a bad situation. it does not ensure a stable way to win. having a qb is the best chance at winning and that's not in the cards.

so then your options are either to work to your strengths of a good d and make it great and get an offense that can win on the run and has outlets that average qb's can use like a great TE and some good YAC receivers.

If you don't like that, then you kind of have to blow up the team and let rex build it with time and essentially agree that in the next 2 years a good QB will come out. but what i don't love about that is that the guys who have been given time like rodgers probably see the game a lot slower and feel a lot less pressure when they finally got the call than a guy who comes in as the 3rd pick overall and is struggling to adjust and has the pressure of the fanbase wanting him to succeed now.

we've seen teams like the bucs and ravens win with the bills current approach. also it's only worked about 2-3 times in 50 SBs. so not great odds.

but at the end, i think the pegulas and the bills want to knock the 15 year streak down without adding more years. if that's the organizational goal, then this is the best way to do it.

[justasportsfan]

I'd like to make playoffs first. Maybe then I can think about making it to the sb .

[soapman]

I dont, I think he will be responsible for giving up points. He is not very good.

If the Bills make the playoffs they could go on a run, but making the playoffs without a qb is highly unlikely no matter how good the defense is. You need a qb in this league.

Cassell=EJ

Same Same

[Mr. Pink]

With these two bum QBs? This isn't a playoff team, it's a team on the upper edge of the pretenders. Those teams who hope to go 9-7 and sneak in with the 6th seed.

Cassel couldn't get a more talented and team used to winning to the playoffs when he took over when Brady went down.

And EJ is a straight out clown.

The team is built well for the future though, when some kind of legitimate NFL QB actually shows up on this roster.

[Night Train]

I'd rather win this way.

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/12/10/article-0-0F21BAC100000578-531_634x864.jpg

[WagonCircler]

This conversation is occurring thanks to the gaping hole created by Doug Whaley.

I can forgive a GM for reaching on a QB who flops. It happens.

But to then double down and put this franchise into the bottom of the QB well without a rope by refusing to recognize how badly you shat the bed on your QB reach? Unforgivable.

This team is in QB hell because 31 other franchises understand the importance of the QB position, but Whaley is now forcing the franchise to fight with one hand tied behind its back, thanks to his desire to force EJ Manuel on us.

If you listen to his public comments recently, he seems to finally understand that EJ is unsalvageable, but it's way too late. The damage has been done, and we're living with the aftermath.

[Meathead]

theyve made the rules so that the easiest way to win a sb in the nfl BY FAR is to have a very good qb. the better the qb, the ѕhittier the rest of the team can be, and it always is due to the salary cap

a powerful defense and a ball protecting qb is the second easiest way

[EDS]

Playoffs are a legitimate goal and possibility for the Bills as currently constructed. Absent a significant jump forward at QB the Super Bowl is likely out of reach. It is interesting to consider what the Bills "window" really is given all of that. A few of the teams key defenders are now 30+ so that will need to factor into the roster management.

[Meathead]

the easiest way to win a sb

or of course to cheat

[DesertFox24]

Why doesn't anyone actually read? I'm not saying that there is a buffet of QBs available and they are ignoring them. I even say in the bolded text in the very first sentence that they have been forced into this situation with the lack of QBs available.

All I'm asking is whether or not a team that is built to run first and play great defense and is 100% successful at their plan can win the Superbowl. I'm not even really talking about the Bills her totally. Insert any team name.

Can a team that is great at the run, bad at QB, great at D win the Superbowl?

It's not just you, I have no idea why people are talking about how good they think Cassel will be etc. It is very hard to start a thread here with more than 3 sentences of text, so that's my fault.

yes the Seahawks won with this approach in 2013, is the answer to your question. Russell Wilson I think had 3 games each season of throwing more than 250 yards.

[coastal]

I think any given Sunday it's going to be a very difficult proposition playing against the Buffalo Bills.

[DesertFox24]

fair enough. sorry to not read the whole thread or your initial post. i think with the context that i set up above, the situation is the best of a bad situation. it does not ensure a stable way to win. having a qb is the best chance at winning and that's not in the cards.

so then your options are either to work to your strengths of a good d and make it great and get an offense that can win on the run and has outlets that average qb's can use like a great TE and some good YAC receivers.

If you don't like that, then you kind of have to blow up the team and let rex build it with time and essentially agree that in the next 2 years a good QB will come out. but what i don't love about that is that the guys who have been given time like rodgers probably see the game a lot slower and feel a lot less pressure when they finally got the call than a guy who comes in as the 3rd pick overall and is struggling to adjust and has the pressure of the fanbase wanting him to succeed now.

we've seen teams like the bucs and ravens win with the bills current approach. also it's only worked about 2-3 times in 50 SBs. so not great odds.

but at the end, i think the pegulas and the bills want to knock the 15 year streak down without adding more years. if that's the organizational goal, then this is the best way to do it.

Worked a lot more than 2 or 3 times in 50 super bowls, look at the passing stats. Additionally, the ground and pound was the model of almost every team back in the day. It has only be recently that passing first offenses have shown up and that has to do with rules changes.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

This is true about every team in the league, every year, and will be for every year that the NFL exists.

No, it really isn't. The NFL likes to spin this tale that every team can potentially win it all every year. But realistically, even though they might improve their W/L record, there are several teams that are not winning the title. I think no matter what happens in the draft or free agency, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Oakland are pretty much out of the AFC running already. We slipped out of that group last year, and now we are in the muddle of teams who can sneak in as a wild card and hope to get hot.

We are not in the class of teams that overcome any serious adversity on the way. Remember this year's playoffs? New England was down by two touchdowns on two separate occasions to Baltimore. They were down two scores to Seattle in the Bowl. Seattle themselves had one of the most disastrous performances of any QB through three quarters of the NFCCG and then had to drive 79 yards in the last two minutes (with one of the most insane catches ever) to even reach the Lynch moment you are talking about.

When you look at this team, do you really see one that's going to come back from a 14 point playoff deficit? I don't, and that's why I see us as a team that could only win a title when the breaks either balance or fall our way. If you look back at Tampa and 00 Baltimore, that's what happened to them when they won with subpar QBs. Neither team ever trailed by more than 7 points in the entire playoffs, and Tampa got a dream Super Bowl matchup vs. their coaches' old team after one of their best players had a mental breakdown.


The best team doesn't always win. In fact, how do you even ascertain who the best team is, when teams play division-centric schedules and compete in a one-and-done tournament.

There is no such thing as "a best team" in the league, there is just the squad who ran the guantlet that year, caught some breaks, got some matchups, some calls, had a ball or two that didnt move an 8th of an inch when a receiver hit the ground, etc. etc. etc.

If Dez makes that catch vs. Green Bay, or Lynch gets the call against NE, the 2014 season would go down completely different in the books.

No, the best teams don't always win, but the best teams usually win. And those sorts of unlucky bounces are the exact things I don't believe we can surmount.


The fact is, we have now assembled a roster that will get us into the field of 12 (14?) that plays one-off games in January to determine a champion. Why worry about if we CAN win, let's just enjoy the ride for the first time in 20 some odd years.

I will enjoy the ride, I just don't expect it will last as long as you do.

[BuffaloRedleg]

I'd like to make playoffs first. Maybe then I can think about making it to the sb .

That's really profound.

Thank you for adding to the conversation.

Everyone hold all talks about the viability of a Run First/Strong Defense team build winning a Superbowl until we make the playoffs, because justasportsfan said so!

[BuffaloRedleg]

No, it really isn't. The NFL likes to spin this tale that every team can potentially win it all every year. But realistically, even though they might improve their W/L record, there are several teams that are not winning the title. I think no matter what happens in the draft or free agency, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Oakland are pretty much out of the AFC running already. We slipped out of that group last year, and now we are in the muddle of teams who can sneak in as a wild card and hope to get hot.

We are not in the class of teams that overcome any serious adversity on the way. Remember this year's playoffs? New England was down by two touchdowns on two separate occasions to Baltimore. They were down two scores to Seattle in the Bowl. Seattle themselves had one of the most disastrous performances of any QB through three quarters of the NFCCG and then had to drive 79 yards in the last two minutes (with one of the most insane catches ever) to even reach the Lynch moment you are talking about.

When you look at this team, do you really see one that's going to come back from a 14 point playoff deficit? I don't, and that's why I see us as a team that could only win a title when the breaks either balance or fall our way. If you look back at Tampa and 00 Baltimore, that's what happened to them when they won with subpar QBs. Neither team ever trailed by more than 7 points in the entire playoffs, and Tampa got a dream Super Bowl matchup vs. their coaches' old team after one of their best players had a mental breakdown.



No, the best teams don't always win, but the best teams usually win. And those sorts of unlucky bounces are the exact things I don't believe we can surmount.



I will enjoy the ride, I just don't expect it will last as long as you do.

I think that is actually right on the money.

Maybe the problem with a run/D build model is not that it isn't viable to win games or regularly be competitive, it's that your ability to overcome adversity is basically zero.

Great teams aren't great because they are dominant in this league, it is that they can come back and win those ones where they should have lost. This league has so much "parity" that bad teams get close with good teams all the time, but when push comes to shove the team with the good QB can move the ball down the field (flags help) and get the win.

The Bills know this first hand.

In a lot of ways I really think it is a lot about penalties. You don't get any major chain movers running the ball, but passing you can really get free money pretty easy. Maybe that is why things are so skewed now.

[BuffaloRedleg]

yes the Seahawks won with this approach in 2013, is the answer to your question. Russell Wilson I think had 3 games each season of throwing more than 250 yards.

But he is still a phenomenal QB and is always a threat to beat you deep. I don't see anyone on this roster who can sniff his jock.

He might be the worst QB since Dilfer/Johnson to win a SB and he is still a damn good QB all things considered.

I don't think they fit the model we are currently being forced to build as we don't have anyone close to his caliber.

[DesertFox24]

But he is still a phenomenal QB and is always a threat to beat you deep. I don't see anyone on this roster who can sniff his jock.

He might be the worst QB since Dilfer/Johnson to win a SB and he is still a damn good QB all things considered.

I don't think they fit the model we are currently being forced to build as we don't have anyone close to his caliber.

Wilson is better than Kaep but he is not the pocket passer that wins the super bowl that your original question was asking.

I do agree with you though we have no shot at the super bowl with our QBs, that is unless EJ just goes off (not going to happen).

That being said Bills are doing what is necessary to play winning football, with the hope that EJ or rookie they draft this year or next year will develop and be ready to go and lead the team once the defense is gutted in 4 years.