Clay Offer Sheet Signed

[Yasgur's Farm]

Per Carruci

[vanbillsfan]

Vic Carucci ‏@viccarucci (https://twitter.com/viccarucci)<small class="time" style="font-size: 13px; color: rgb(136, 153, 166);"> 3m3 minutes ago (https://twitter.com/viccarucci/status/577973626198183937)</small>
The #Bills (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bills?src=hash)' offer to Clay is for 5 yrs and $38 million. More than $20 million guaranteed.

[justasportsfan]

Pegulas are cheap

[YardRat]

Damn...about 600k per more than the transition, right?

[SpikedLemonade]

OK.

I hope they know what they are doing.

A little over $7.5M per year and $20M guaranteed is a lot of money for TE who has not dominated.

- - - Updated - - -


Damn...about 600k per more than the transition, right?

Yup.

[elltrain22]

Hell yeah!! Love it

[X-Era]

So the Fins will do one of two things:

Take that deal and screw us over... meaning they planted the reports that they wont match and have moved on

Let him come to us and save face by saying they dont think hes worth it

[Yasgur's Farm]

Way to be there with a link... Good job!
Vic Carucci ‏@viccarucci 3m3 minutes ago
The #Bills' offer to Clay is for 5 yrs and $38 million. More than $20 million guaranteed.

[X-Era]

The hillarious part is that a non-household name TE has now become a major battle ground between rivals... LOL

http://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/seuss/images/1/13/Zax_(2).jpg/revision/latest?cb=20130206183540

[SpikedLemonade]

@viccarucci: More on the #Bills' offer sheet to TE Charles Clay: $24.5 million over the first 2 years.

[Mike]

Offer Sheet from BillsTuesday, March 17Vic Carucci (https://twitter.com/viccarucci/status/577972376132009984)of The Buffalo News reported Clay signed an offer sheet from the Bills, which the Dolphins have five days to match. Carruci (https://twitter.com/viccarucci/status/577973626198183937) reported the offer sheet is for five years and $38 million, with $20 million guaranteed.
NFL (http://bleacherreport.com/nfl).com's Michael Silver (https://twitter.com/MikeSilver/status/577974623582568448) reported the Dolphins' final offer to Clay was for $27 million over the next four years, with under $15 million guaranteed.

[SpikedLemonade]

The Fish will not match that, but over $12M per year for the 1st 2 years is ridiculous for a TE of Clay's talent.

I understand the gamesmanship however I wonder if the Bills got too involved in the game here.

[Yasgur's Farm]

That's gotta mean like $18.5M cap hit in 2016... Just what the Fins can't absorb with the Suh hit North of $20M that same year.

[YardRat]

merged

[DraftBoy]

Well what's done is done but that's a lot of money for a TE who has never been a game changer.

I love Clay's versatility but that's a lot of money.

[SpikedLemonade]

@NEPD_Loyko: Over the next two seasons Rob Gronkowski will make 15.2 million. Or 9 million less than Charles Clay. There is a reason why #Patriots win.

[YardRat]

Uggh

[jpdex12]

don't even ***** about this you negative a-holes. OBD is trying like hell to make a winner before the season even starts.

[EDS]

That's gotta mean like $18.5M cap hit in 2016... Just what the Fins can't absorb with the Suh hit North of $20M that same year.

Yikes. I would be pissed if this is the reason Dareus, Gilmore or Glenn walks next season.

[Yasgur's Farm]

don't even ***** about this you negative a-holes. OBD is trying like hell to make a winner before the season even starts.Publicly agree with everything except "a-holes"... Privately? I'd consider it.

[YardRat]

don't even ***** about this you negative a-holes. OBD is trying like hell to make a winner before the season even starts.

Not being really negative, but adding a FB, RB, TE and maybe WR at the total cost when there is a crying need for linemen on both sides of the ball doesn't jive with my version of 'making a winner'.

I hope like hell the young olinemen grow up in a hurry, and a NT and DE fall into our laps sometime before the season starts.

[BidsJr]

Not being really negative, but adding a FB, RB, TE and maybe WR at the total cost when there is a crying need for linemen on both sides of the ball doesn't jive with my version of 'making a winner'.

I hope like hell the young olinemen grow up in a hurry, and a NT and DE fall into our laps sometime before the season starts.

Crying need for lineman on D??????

lolollollollollollolololololololololololooloololol

[SpikedLemonade]

don't even ***** about this you negative a-holes. OBD is trying like hell to make a winner before the season even starts.

Why you so angry bro?

It has been one angry post after the other from you over the past week or so.

Maybe you should walk away from the computer if this is causing you such pain.

Did you even know who Clay was when this season ended?

Probably not and now we are paying this quasi TE over $7.5M per year with almost $25M of that coming in the first 2 years.

I hope he works out, but if doesn't, this is the kind of experiment that gets a GM fired.

[finfan34]

Why you so angry bro?

It has been one angry post after the other from you over the past week or so.

Maybe you should walk away from the computer if this is causing you such pain.

Did you even know who Clay was when this season ended?

Probably not and now we are paying this quasi TE over $7.5M per year with almost $25M of that coming in the first 2 years.

I hope he works out, but if doesn't, this is the kind of experiment that gets a GM fired.

agree. You guys overpaid. First off, you already have offensive weapons, why do you need clay taking reps? From what I know about the bills you need o line help. Why do you sign a TE who isn't a good blocker? Was fine with Mia wringing for one year. For 20 mill guaranteed, you can have him and his bad knees.

[Yasgur's Farm]

Tell me more about "bad knees"... Seriously.

[SpikedLemonade]

Tell me more about "bad knees"... Seriously.

That got your attention eh?

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Wow this dude better be the focal point of our offense for that money.

What's that? He's going to be at best the third option behind Watkins and McCoy? Well crap.

[DraftBoy]

Wow this dude better be the focal point of our offense for that money.

What's that? He's going to be the third option behind Watkins and McCoy? Well crap.

Nothing wrong with the slot of his option if the intent truly is to be versatile and keep the defense off balance. I'm just not sure they have a QB or OL to actually make the idea work.

[MikeInRoch]

It's too much, especially next year when we have players to sign.

[Yasgur's Farm]

That got your attention eh?Lurking for negatives eh?

[Buffalogic]

Major influx of talent and speed on the offense this offseason. That's the important part, not the money.

[DraftBoy]

It's too much, especially next year when we have players to sign.

I gotta admit adding big cap money to next year when you know Dareus is going to ask for $100m plus seems a bit...well...stupid.

[X-Era]

@NEPD_Loyko: Over the next two seasons Rob Gronkowski will make 15.2 million. Or 9 million less than Charles Clay. There is a reason why #Patriots win.
HOF HC and HOF QB is why they win.

Let's see the contract breakdown with yearly cap hits before weighing in too heavy.

[Yasgur's Farm]

I gotta admit adding big cap money to next year when you know Dareus is going to ask for six figures seems a bit...well...stupid.Uhm... Isn't that 7 figures?

[SpikedLemonade]

Lurking for negatives eh?

No. When I read his comment I just decided I did not want to know.

[Ed]

Uhm... Isn't that 7 figures?
8 figures/year.

[YardRat]

Crying need for lineman on D??????

lolollollollollollolololololololololololooloololol

We have one defensive end---Dareus.
We have no true nose tackle---Kyle is too small and not strong enough.
We have, ummm, let's see...nobody to play DE opposite Dareus. Nobody.

Yeah...1 for 3 = 'crying need' to me.

[EDS]

Uhm... Isn't that 7 figures?

8 more likely.

[Meathead]

best QB ever and a painfully mediocre HC who is a good defensive coordinator is why they win.


fixed

[DraftBoy]

Uhm... Isn't that 7 figures?

Maybe...I never said I wasn't stupid.

[Meathead]

best QB ever and a painfully mediocre HC who is a good defensive coordinator and is a confirmed repeated cheater is why they win.


fixed again

[Yasgur's Farm]

http://www.kffl.com/player/24062/nfl/injury_history/charles-clay
I got Hammy twice in 2011 and ribs once in 2012... That's it... Never knees.

[Mr. Miyagi]

@NEPD_Loyko: Over the next two seasons Rob Gronkowski will make 15.2 million. Or 9 million less than Charles Clay. There is a reason why #Patriots win.

Because they save the most money? No.

When we didn't sign Clay you people were *****ing they don't do anything. When we sign him and you people are *****ing it's too expensive. WTF.

[DraftBoy]

Because they save the most money? No.

When we didn't sign Clay you people were *****ing they don't do anything. When we sign him and you people are *****ing it's too expensive. WTF.

This was never a black and white issue. You don't just sign a guy and get immediate praise, just like you don't just pass on a guy and get immediate criticism.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Nothing wrong with the slot of his option if the intent truly is to be versatile and keep the defense off balance. I'm just not sure they have a QB or OL to actually make the idea work.

The "slot of his option"?


Because they save the most money? No.

When we didn't sign Clay you people were *****ing they don't do anything. When we sign him and you people are *****ing it's too expensive. WTF.

If these reports are accurate, Clay just got more guaranteed money then Jimmy Graham.

Is that wise spending?

In any event, I hope Miami matches.

[Meathead]

breaking news: clay signs

http://www.garageart.com/images/prods/18953.jpg https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/236x/18/ee/3e/18ee3e69a0a6fbec8961be851af73cca.jpg http://www.angelfire.com/ny2/diceman/images/dicemancometh.gif

[Mr. Pink]

That is mindblowingly stupid money for a TE not named Gronk or Graham.

It's good to spend the money but hell, how the F are they gonna afford to keep guys like Dareus, Gilmore and Glenn next year?

All 3 are gonna wanna get paid.

[ct bills fan]

Why are we *****ing about money? First of all, it's not our money plus money doesn't matter if the team stays comfortably under the cap. Now, if it's preventing us from signing a top 2016 fa qb then that's another thing. But who knows what qbs will be available next year anyway??

[lavuuk153]

That is mindblowingly stupid money for a TE not named Gronk or Graham.

It's good to spend the money but hell, how the F are they gonna afford to keep guys like Dareus, Gilmore and Glenn next year?

All 3 are gonna wanna get paid.

I'm not even going to pretend to know all the rules around the cap, but I would think there are 2 good reasons they can keep who they want next year. They aren't paying a lot of money to QB's which means they can go a little overboard on other positions and they can probably free up a decent amount of space by restructuring Mario's contract.

[Meathead]

official mh the geek® odds on the clay saga now that the offer is on the table:

36.247% fish decline match, clay signs with bills
61.83834730349% fish take all five days and match offer just before the deadline even tho they knew within five seconds of seeing the offer they would thus breaking the hearts of bills fans everywhere but possibly doing them a favor in the long run

[Mace]

We have one defensive end---Dareus.
We have no true nose tackle---Kyle is too small and not strong enough.
We have, ummm, let's see...nobody to play DE opposite Dareus. Nobody.

Yeah...1 for 3 = 'crying need' to me.

Like I keep saying though, Ryan doesn't do traditional 3-4, he does 4-3 under and alignments.

Pettine to Schwartz explanation : http://www.buffalorumblings.com/buffalo-bills-re-watch/2014/1/25/5344744/comparing-base-defenses-jim-schwartz-vs-mike-pettine

Schwartz to Ryan explanation : http://www.buffalorumblings.com/bills-news-notes/2015/1/13/7536851/rex-ryan-jim-schwartz-buffalo-bills-defense-donnie-henderson

Chris Brown answering a NT question (#2) : http://blogs.buffalobills.com/2015/02/27/fan-friday-2-27-2/

DT's are Dareus/Williams, Ends/"LB"'s are Hughes/Lawson/Mario.

They only need depth.

Anyway, huge sack of Moolah for Clay the first 2 years, then he gets dirt cheap. I dunno. What Rexy wants, Rexy gets. I don't really get it, but hey, there's a lot I don't get this offseason.

[wmoz11]

I'm not worried too much about this affecting Dareus, Gilmore, or Glenn. 24.2M is over the first two years. After that, it's 13.8M over 3 years - or ~4.5M/year. The extensions of the aforementioned players will just have to have low cap-hits in '16. The cap will keep going up, as well.

Not to mention that they didn't make this offer hastily. They know about what it will cost to extend those guys and obviously thought about structuring future deals.

[Buffalogic]

Graham gets 10 mil a season, not 7.5m. Cameron is getting 7.5m per from the fins. We are paying Clay market standard not some crazy price like some people want to make it out to be.

[Meathead]

ok fine

2.000274% mh is a loatian transvestite living in his adopted moms basement

[BertSquirtgum]

Dumb

[ct bills fan]

Bills have 101 million tied into the top 51 players in 2016. Cap is projected to be over 145 million. We are fine to sign all 4 of our top fa's next year is even without restructuring Mario or anybody else.

[DraftBoy]

Bills have 101 million tied into the top 51 players in 2016. Cap is projected to be over 145 million. We are fine to sign all 4 of our top fa's next year is even without restructuring Mario or anybody else.

I don't believe that number includes Clay's Year 2 cap hit.

[Meathead]

i actually thought it would be more. clay used this for leverage but fish will plan to move stuff around next season and match

even if clay becomes top shelf and stays relatively healthy, in the long run it might help us by forcing the fish hand and reducing their financial flexibility the next few seasons

and of course he could still easily under-earn that money. if he becomes a stud it will hurt a lot more

[SpikedLemonade]

Let's see the contract breakdown with yearly cap hits before weighing in too heavy.

@ArmandoSalguero: Bye: RT @JamesWalkerNFL: Im told cap hit in 2016 in Charles Clays contract is around $12 million....

With the above and other tweets, do you now have enough information to know this contract breakdown?

[X-Era]

@ArmandoSalguero: Bye: RT @JamesWalkerNFL: Im told cap hit in 2016 in Charles Clays contract is around $12 million....

With the above and other tweets, do you now have enough information to know this contract breakdown?No.

Cap hit for all years, bonus amortization, etc...

Let's see the whole contract

[The Jokeman]

That's gotta mean like $18.5M cap hit in 2016... Just what the Fins can't absorb with the Suh hit North of $20M that same year.

Toss in Tannehill is going to either get the top 3rd-24th QB salary if the Dolphins take his "option" or workout a bigger contract for him with a long term extension. Kudos for the Bills for taking a chance on a guy they like. This something we'd never see if Ralph was still the owner.

[psubills62]

Cool, let's hope they are able to use him really well in the offense.

[The Jokeman]

Graham gets 10 mil a season, not 7.5m. Cameron is getting 7.5m per from the fins. We are paying Clay market standard not some crazy price like some people want to make it out to be.

Actually Cameron is only getting $4.5m this year and 9.5m next season. http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/miami-dolphins/jordan-cameron/

[IlluminatusUIUC]

I don't believe that number includes Clay's Year 2 cap hit.

It does not, but it also means that we would consume our available cap space re-signing our own and be fairly minor players outside our roster. Which would be fine, but if we were going whole hog on FAs, these wouldn't have been the ones I went for.

[BertSquirtgum]

I don't know why some people are talking like he's already on the bills. The dolphins are most likely going to match this contract.

[BertSquirtgum]

And I hope they do

[SpikedLemonade]

@BuffRumblings: To restructure a year from now to help MIA, Clay would have to trade a $10m roster bonus for guaranteed money down the road 2017 & beyond.

[Goobylal]

Comparing this to Gronk's contract from 3 years ago is stupid.

[Mike13]

Well Miami certainly has the cap space to match the offer, will they? I dont think Clay is worth top 10 TE money.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

I don't know why some people are talking like he's already on the bills. The dolphins are most likely going to match this contract.


And I hope they do

Agreed.

[DraftBoy]

It does not, but it also means that we would consume our available cap space re-signing our own and be fairly minor players outside our roster. Which would be fine, but if we were going whole hog on FAs, these wouldn't have been the ones I went for.

I don't know how they are going to resign Glenn, Dareus, and Bradham with only 25 or so million to spend. Gilmore is the year after.

[SpikedLemonade]

I don't know how they are going to resign Glenn, Dareus, and Bradham with only 25 or so million to spend. Gilmore is the year after.

Next year, restructure Mario's contract and convert Clay's 2nd year money into a signing bonus that can be spread over 4 more years.

[The Jokeman]

I don't know how they are going to resign Glenn, Dareus, and Bradham with only 25 or so million to spend. Gilmore is the year after.

Maybe we turn Mario's base salary into a bonus next year and sign him to a 4 year extension. Who knows but I'm sure Whaley et all have a plan. You have to believe that. Darus to me is the biggest worry as maybe their hinging on replacing Glenn if Henderson/Kujo step up. While I would say Bradham was our best LB last season I can't say he isn't replaceable.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

I don't know how they are going to resign Glenn, Dareus, and Bradham with only 25 or so million to spend. Gilmore is the year after.

Gilmore has the 5th year option but I haven't heard that we've exercised it yet. Even assuming we do, that's still going to be something like $11 million that year.

[Jry44]

I don't know how they are going to resign Glenn, Dareus, and Bradham with only 25 or so million to spend. Gilmore is the year after.

They will make cuts and restructure other players contracts. We see it all of the time, and yet fans still incessantly worry about future cap. What's the sense?! Contracts in the NFL are never guaranteed, , only bonuses and hit incentives. Why do people worry and obsess over this so much?!

The new league year is 1 week old. Lets settle down and see what else happens before getting bent out of shape. You don't have to either love or hate every move immediately!

[DraftBoy]

Gilmore has the 5th year option but I haven't heard that we've exercised it yet. Even assuming we do, that's still going to be something like $11 million that year.

$10M per people on Twitter.

- - - Updated - - -


They will make cuts and restructure other players contracts. We see it all of the time, and yet fans still incessantly worry about future cap. What's the sense?! Contracts in the NFL are never guaranteed, , only bonuses and hit incentives. Why do people worry and obsess over this so much?!

The new league year is 1 week old. Lets settle down and see what else happens before getting bent out of shape. You don't have to either love or hate every move immediately!

Restructuring is a two way street.

- - - Updated - - -


Next year, restructure Mario's contract and convert Clay's 2nd year money into a signing bonus that can be spread over 4 more years.

You're assuming either player wants to do that.

[DraftBoy]

Maybe we turn Mario's base salary into a bonus next year and sign him to a 4 year extension. Who knows but I'm sure Whaley et all have a plan. You have to believe that. Darus to me is the biggest worry as maybe their hinging on replacing Glenn if Henderson/Kujo step up. While I would say Bradham was our best LB last season I can't say he isn't replaceable.

They could, but again that's a two way street. I find it odd (though not necessarily definitive) that there was no talk of restructuring Mario this year.

[The Jokeman]

They could, but again that's a two way street. I find it odd (though not necessarily definitive) that there was no talk of restructuring Mario this year.

They still could for all we know, as with Clay's contract does anywhere we stand for the 2015 cap? As I still feel we could go after Dawan Landry at SS to replace Norris if have $1.5-$2.0M.

[psubills62]

I just can't get into the hand-wringing over cap space in 2016. So many things change between now and then. There are obviously some bloated contracts, going to wait and see what happens.

I also don't expect to sign all of the young talent we have anyway. Seems like a good problem to have and indicates they are bringing a lot more talent to the team to begin with. Many good teams end up needing to choose who to re-sign and who to let go.

[ct bills fan]

25m for dareus, bradham and Glenn can be made to work. Suh, for instance, got more than any of these 3, especially the latter 2, and his first year cap hit is only 6.5m

[YardRat]

Like I keep saying though, Ryan doesn't do traditional 3-4, he does 4-3 under and alignments.

Pettine to Schwartz explanation : http://www.buffalorumblings.com/buffalo-bills-re-watch/2014/1/25/5344744/comparing-base-defenses-jim-schwartz-vs-mike-pettine

Schwartz to Ryan explanation : http://www.buffalorumblings.com/bills-news-notes/2015/1/13/7536851/rex-ryan-jim-schwartz-buffalo-bills-defense-donnie-henderson

Chris Brown answering a NT question (#2) : http://blogs.buffalobills.com/2015/02/27/fan-friday-2-27-2/

DT's are Dareus/Williams, Ends/"LB"'s are Hughes/Lawson/Mario.

They only need depth.

Anyway, huge sack of Moolah for Clay the first 2 years, then he gets dirt cheap. I dunno. What Rexy wants, Rexy gets. I don't really get it, but hey, there's a lot I don't get this offseason.

I'm sorry Mace, but that's just not the case.

Dareus-KW-Carrington/Branch. That was your starting dline under Pettine. Mario-Moats-Kiko-Lawson. Those were the starting 'backers. Yes, that's right...Lawson started (I believe IIRC) 14 games, Hughes was coming off the bench. It will work the same under Ryan, but with no 4-5tech DE at the moment opposite Dareus, unless Rex plans on trying to plug Mario in on the strong side with Dareus on the nose, or Hughes/Lawson opposite Dareus, either of which would be a mistake.

Looking at the first link and diagram, I'm fully aware that Lawson/Hughes/Mario are going to put their hand on the ground at times, but that doesn't make them a DE, they are still playing the Jack. Now look at the two triangles to the immediate rt of the Jack. We have NOBODY for the first (no Carrington/Branch) and still have an undersized NT in KW. With 5 guys on the line, basically, that leaves in the middle of the field Moats and Kiko...look at that positional triangle...THAT'S why Pettine's D fared poorly against runs up the middle.

As far as the second link, it's the exact same as the first (Pettine's defense), and Galliford (IMO) almost grossly over-estimates Lawson/Hughes ability to cover...that's not either's strong suit, by far. He does however point out the same thing I've been saying...the team currently has nobody to plug into that 4-5tech DE that was occupied by Carrington/Branch two seasons ago.

As far as CB's link, even in an under alignment, you still need somebody bigger/stronger than KW and somebody to man the 4-5tech DE. Maybe Bryant/Charles/Brown can step up and fill that role, it's certainly possible.

We've seen this defense before, with by and large these same players, and it wasn't nearly as effective (let alone dominant) as last year's, and I don't expect it to be much better.

[swiper]

don't even ***** about this you negative a-holes. OBD is trying like hell to make a winner before the season even starts.

This is Ville Leino 2.0.

Throwing money at a situation won't necessarily fix it. Just ask Dan Snyder.

This guy had better score a lot of TDs.

[The Jokeman]

I'm sorry Mace, but that's just not the case.

Dareus-KW-Carrington/Branch. That was your starting dline under Pettine. Mario-Moats-Kiko-Lawson. Those were the starting 'backers. Yes, that's right...Lawson started (I believe IIRC) 14 games, Hughes was coming off the bench. It will work the same under Ryan, but with no 4-5tech DE at the moment opposite Dareus, unless Rex plans on trying to plug Mario in on the strong side with Dareus on the nose, or Hughes/Lawson opposite Dareus, either of which would be a mistake.

Looking at the first link and diagram, I'm fully aware that Lawson/Hughes/Mario are going to put their hand on the ground at times, but that doesn't make them a DE, they are still playing the Jack. Now look at the two triangles to the immediate rt of the Jack. We have NOBODY for the first (no Carrington/Branch) and still have an undersized NT in KW. With 5 guys on the line, basically, that leaves in the middle of the field Moats and Kiko...look at that positional triangle...THAT'S why Pettine's D fared poorly against runs up the middle.

As far as the second link, it's the exact same as the first (Pettine's defense), and Galliford (IMO) almost grossly over-estimates Lawson/Hughes ability to cover...that's not either's strong suit, by far. He does however point out the same thing I've been saying...the team currently has nobody to plug into that 4-5tech DE that was occupied by Carrington/Branch two seasons ago.

As far as CB's link, even in an under alignment, you still need somebody bigger/stronger than KW and somebody to man the 4-5tech DE. Maybe Bryant/Charles/Brown can step up and fill that role, it's certainly possible.

We've seen this defense before, with by and large these same players, and it wasn't nearly as effective (let alone dominant) as last year's, and I don't expect it to be much better.

I hate to debate with you but Lawson did well in coverage under Pettine. I agree we're lacking a Branch/Carrington type at DE right now but Carrington is currently an UFA and doubt it take major money to re-sign him or we might be able to nab a guy like Henry Anderson in Round 3.


Lawson graded out as the top cover linebacker in the league last year by Pro Football Focus, so it's a questionable fit even with the Bills moving to a 4-3. Barring an upgrade in the draft, Lawson should remain at strong-side linebacker. Jerry Hughes is expected to see the majority of snaps opposite Mario Williams.
http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/nfl/3692/manny-lawson

[YardRat]

I would love to have Carrington back, didn't remember/realize he only signed a one year deal.

[The Jokeman]

I would love to have Carrington back, didn't remember/realize he only signed a one year deal.

Yep, just one year:
Rams agreed to terms with DT Alex Carrington, formerly of the Bills, on a one-year contract.
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5793/alex-carrington

[kingJofNYC]

Lot of money to throw around.

How many of you guys were afraid to face Clay when he was in Miami? Whatever, live and learn.

[Mr. Pink]

25m for dareus, bradham and Glenn can be made to work. Suh, for instance, got more than any of these 3, especially the latter 2, and his first year cap hit is only 6.5m

Every year salaries go up, so next year when Dareus hits the market unless he decides to give a bit of a hometown discount and also not thinking his play is gonna fall off a cliff, he's gonna command the same type of money Suh just got.

If Glenn's play returns to 2013 form, he'll command top LT money.

Bradham will likely be cheapish so not too worried on his deal.

Gilmore has an option for 10m if the team plans to exercise it, which I dunno if he'd get 10m on the open market anyway.

Add all of that up and I don't think you're staying under 25m, that doesn't even include some lesser role type players or signing guys to replace them + draft picks.

This organization literally in one offseason did what John Butler did to the team over the course of a few seasons...of course the team was winning under Butler so there's your tradeoff. Difference is, this team as constructed hasn't won jack yet.

[USC_Gamecock]

Some of you guys need to get rid of the old Bills mentality and just have a little faith that our FO might just know what they're doing -- finally. Enjoy the ride fellas!!

Maybe we need to start a 12-step recovery program for Bills fans -- like AA.

[kingJofNYC]

Funny thing is, this is their only really big FA move. They resigned Hughes, finally kept one of our own. McCoy deal was the backbreaker, give up a promising cover LB for a RB, compound the problem big giving him more money, and yet we have no ****ing OL to block for him. No reason to use all these resources on a RB, when your OL is much more important.

Never understood the hard on for Clay, he's a nice player, but not worth this kind of money, he just isn't. Whatever, honestly, it doesn't even matter, at least they're trying to put a decent team together, but no QB and a suspect OL, and big pieces due money in 2016....lets see how this works shakes out.

[MidnightVoice]

http://espn.go.com/blog/miami-dolphins/post/_/id/13873/dolphins-should-let-charles-clay-walk


The Dolphins do not need Clay nearly as much as the Bills do. .....

But here is the key figure that should help make this decision for the Dolphins: Clay's cap hit will be about $12 million in 2016, according to a source.

That 2016 season is important because Ndamukong Suh's cap charge will be huge with a value set at $28.6 million. The Dolphins also are expected to dole out new money to quarterback Ryan Tannehill, Pro Bowl offensive lineman Mike Pouncey and starting defensive end Olivier Vernon by that time.

Miami can’t pay everyone. The team would not be wise to pay Clay at the expense of any of these aforementioned players.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000479677/article/charles-clay-signs-offer-sheet-with-buffalo-bills

The Dolphins now have five days to match the offer sheet or lose Clay to the Bills without getting anything in return. It would be a surprise if the Dolphins matched it. With Clay set to receive $24.5 million over the first two years, Rapoport notes the deal is structured to attack Miami's salary cap in 2016. In comparison, Rob Gronkowsk's average annual salary is about $9 million.

The total deal is "only" for $38 million for five years. In essense, the Bills are gambling that Clay stays on the roster for the length of the deal. If he gets hurt in his second season, they will have paid him like a top-five NFL wide receiver.

Miami recently signed Jordan Cameron to a two-year, $15 million contract, seemingly in anticipation of Clay leaving town. NFL Media columnist Michael Silver reports that the Dolphins' last offer for Clay was four years for $27 million, including less than $14 million guaranteed. That offer came after Cameron signed.

Clay would give the Bills another unique weapon that can move around the offensive formation, much like Percy Harvin and LeSean McCoy. Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods adds to the team's arsenal, and new offensive coordinator Greg Roman loves to get creative. Buffalo's quarterback situation may be up in the air, but this is one of the most talented teams in football on both sides of the ball.

[kingJofNYC]

Good thing is, Roman loves a the TE, he'll take advantage of what Clay brings to the table, that's a positive at the very least.

[starrymessenger]

Clay will be a major centerpiece for Roman's O, even if he has to share touches with now many outstanding skill position players. Whether as an in line or downfield blocker, split wide or lined up in the backfield he will be the glue that helps hold it all together. He will make McCoy, Watkins, Harvin etc...better, because opposing Ds will always have to account for him. Unlike most "versatile" players who do everything well, but do nothing exceptionally well, Clay does everything very well. I feel he is being sold short by some posters because they do not understand his true value and what he brings to the table.
Bills have taken a major step forward IMO.
I'm sure the Bills have done their homework and will be able to sign their guys within the cap.
Now if they can only find a way to swing Mathis or Evans our offseason would be pretty near perfect.

[BertSquirtgum]

If the Bills end up with this guy and it keeps them from being able to sign all their own guys next year I will blow a gasket.

[better days]

The only way the Bills were going to pry Clay out of Miami was to over pay for him.

But they did not over pay by all that much.

And those that worry about the future cap hit, the cap is going UP next year, that is the reason the Fins are taking such a huge hit on Suh next year.

I am HAPPY about this signing & hope the Fins don't match it...but if they do it will cost them.

[better days]

And I promise Bills fans, Clay will be a fan favorite by the end of next year.

Clay is a hard nosed, hard working guy, he will fit right in ONE BUFFALO.

[Mike]

official mh the geek® odds on the clay saga now that the offer is on the table:

36.247% fish decline match, clay signs with bills
61.83834730349% fish take all five days and match offer just before the deadline even tho they knew within five seconds of seeing the offer they would thus breaking the hearts of bills fans everywhere but possibly doing them a favor in the long run

85% chance Dolphins take all 5 days & Don't match offer.

[Jry44]

$10M per people on Twitter.

- - - Updated - - -



Restructuring is a two way street.

- - - Updated - - -



You're assuming either player wants to do that.

Yet it's a street that's often traveled. Just relax and let things play out...

[BertSquirtgum]

The only way the Bills were going to pry Clay out of Miami was to over pay for him.

But they did not over pay by all that much.

And those that worry about the future cap hit, the cap is going UP next year, that is the reason the Fins are taking such a huge hit on Suh next year.

I am HAPPY about this signing & hope the Fins don't match it...but if they do it will cost them.

Hold on there skip. He's not on the Bills yet.

- - - Updated - - -


85% chance Dolphins take all 5 days & Don't match offer.

100% chance the Dolphins wait until the last second to let it be known.

[better days]

Hold on there skip. He's not on the Bills yet.

- - - Updated - - -



100% chance the Dolphins wait until the last second to let it be known.

Yeah, I know Clay is not on the Bills yet, did you read the last sentence of my post?

Still, I like our chances of getting him & IF Clay becomes a Bill, people questioning his signing will be on board before the season is over.

[BertSquirtgum]

Yeah, I know Clay is not on the Bills yet, did you read the last sentence of my post?

Still, I like our chances of getting him & IF Clay becomes a Bill, people questioning his signing will be on board before the season is over.

I'll only be on board if the Bills are able to sign Marcell next year. I'll be complaining about it until he gets inked.

[better days]

I'll only be on board if the Bills are able to sign Marcell next year. I'll be complaining about it until he gets inked.

Like I said, the cap is going up next year.

Clay will not affect the Bills keeping Dareus. Or anyone else they want to keep for that matter.

And Pegula has the Money & the will to do things to make the Bills a winner that Ralph did not have.

Lets enjoy the ride, don't be nervous.

[Oaf]

TE has been our worst position for a decade. OBD pays what will be a market rate deal for a top-10 range TE who can do it all and is not a glorified WR. People complain.

You guys want to be cheapskates again now?

Have you considered the front office staff may just have factored in next year's FAs before making this offer sheet?

[IlluminatusUIUC]

TE has been our worst position for a decade. OBD pays what will be a market rate deal for a top-10 range TE who can do it all and is not a glorified WR. People complain.

He's had 1 season in 4 where he could was even in the discussion for "top 10" and we paid him a Top 3 contract with more guaranteed money then Jimmy Graham. He's got one of the 5 largest contracts on the team at the moment. The guys earning that kind of money do so because they are the focal point of the offense. Clay is the 3rd banana, at best.

[BertSquirtgum]

TE has been our worst position for a decade. OBD pays what will be a market rate deal for a top-10 range TE who can do it all and is not a glorified WR. People complain.

You guys want to be cheapskates again now?

Have you considered the front office staff may just have factored in next year's FAs before making this offer sheet?

I hope so

[Night Train]

For that $, he better be one huge difference maker at TE.

Plus is cap fig for 2016 better be small so we don't lose Dareus, since he IS a difference maker we cannot lose.

[snow1989]

I think its great the new owners are willing to spend money. That said....I'm not 100 % on being sold on a TE that has had 1 break out year in 4 receiving and isn't known as a great blocker considering the fact we got McCoy also.

[Night Train]

I'm sorry Mace, but that's just not the case.

Dareus-KW-Carrington/Branch. That was your starting dline under Pettine. Mario-Moats-Kiko-Lawson. Those were the starting 'backers. Yes, that's right...Lawson started (I believe IIRC) 14 games, Hughes was coming off the bench. It will work the same under Ryan, but with no 4-5tech DE at the moment opposite Dareus, unless Rex plans on trying to plug Mario in on the strong side with Dareus on the nose, or Hughes/Lawson opposite Dareus, either of which would be a mistake.

Looking at the first link and diagram, I'm fully aware that Lawson/Hughes/Mario are going to put their hand on the ground at times, but that doesn't make them a DE, they are still playing the Jack. Now look at the two triangles to the immediate rt of the Jack. We have NOBODY for the first (no Carrington/Branch) and still have an undersized NT in KW. With 5 guys on the line, basically, that leaves in the middle of the field Moats and Kiko...look at that positional triangle...THAT'S why Pettine's D fared poorly against runs up the middle.

As far as the second link, it's the exact same as the first (Pettine's defense), and Galliford (IMO) almost grossly over-estimates Lawson/Hughes ability to cover...that's not either's strong suit, by far. He does however point out the same thing I've been saying...the team currently has nobody to plug into that 4-5tech DE that was occupied by Carrington/Branch two seasons ago.

As far as CB's link, even in an under alignment, you still need somebody bigger/stronger than KW and somebody to man the 4-5tech DE. Maybe Bryant/Charles/Brown can step up and fill that role, it's certainly possible.

We've seen this defense before, with by and large these same players, and it wasn't nearly as effective (let alone dominant) as last year's, and I don't expect it to be much better.

Can't blame you for your views but recent comments by Rex seem to indicate the expected shift back to a 2013 Pettine D isn't etched in stone.

He stated he wishes to show multiple looks and it's not 3-4 heavy as you expect ...but time will tell, once camp gets rolling. He may try a lot of things at SJF to see what works. Doesn't sound stubborn at all about having the D run a 3-4 set without any other considerations. Otherwise, we wouldn't be keeping so many DL and would be desperately seeking LB's. Don't see that.

[DraftBoy]

Yet it's a street that's often traveled. Just relax and let things play out...

I'm not stressed or even animated about it, but you can't sit there and say that knowing that the big money is next year for Clay you aren't at least a little concerned with so many big names to sign next year.

[Mahdi]

I'm not stressed or even animated about it, but you can't sit there and say that knowing that the big money is next year for Clay you aren't at least a little concerned with so many big names to sign next year.

I don't think we have to worry.

Any player we have on defense who is a playmaker like Dareus, Bradham or Gilmore will probably be staying.

Gilmore has to prove he is a shut down CB, he'll have the chance this year as Rex WILL leave him on an island.

Bradham has to follow up a solid year with a great year otherwise he will get a reasonable, not too pricey contract.

Dareus was waiting for Suh's numbers and he will get similar dollars if not more.

Bottom line, Bills will do a lot of restructuring next year. Mario, Clay, McKelvin, A.Williams will probably all shift their contract around next offseason.

Then the cap will go up so that will also help.

Another point is that Dareus' cap number for this year is 8 mil. Which means you aren't looking at an additional cap hit of 20 mil for next year (assuming that is what Dareus gets) you are looking at the difference in cap hit between 20 and 8 which is 12 mil.

[Strongman]

I don't think we have to worry.

Any player we have on defense who is a playmaker like Dareus, Bradham or Gilmore will probably be staying.

Gilmore has to prove he is a shut down CB, he'll have the chance this year as Rex WILL leave him on an island.

Bradham has to follow up a solid year with a great year otherwise he will get a reasonable, not too pricey contract.

Dareus was waiting for Suh's numbers and he will get similar dollars if not more.

Bottom line, Bills will do a lot of restructuring next year. Mario, Clay, McKelvin, A.Williams will probably all shift their contract around next offseason.

Then the cap will go up so that will also help.

Another point is that Dareus' cap number for this year is 8 mil. Which means you aren't looking at an additional cap hit of 20 mil for next year (assuming that is what Dareus gets) you are looking at the difference in cap hit between 20 and 8 which is 12 mil.

I'm thinking this pretty much guarentees the Bills will franchise tag Dareus next year. Cap hit should be around 11.5 million

[BidsJr]

I'm thinking this pretty much guarentees the Bills will franchise tag Dareus next year. Cap hit should be around 11.5 million

exactly

[Mahdi]

I'm thinking this pretty much guarentees the Bills will franchise tag Dareus next year. Cap hit should be around 11.5 million

I hope they don't do that. It tends to piss off players and make them less likely to accept a hometown discount or even force you to heavily outbid other teams in FA.

He's done well for the Bills and lived up to expectations so just pay him now or early in the season.

[better days]

He's had 1 season in 4 where he could was even in the discussion for "top 10" and we paid him a Top 3 contract with more guaranteed money then Jimmy Graham. He's got one of the 5 largest contracts on the team at the moment. The guys earning that kind of money do so because they are the focal point of the offense. Clay is the 3rd banana, at best.

No, guys earning that kind of money do so because teams wanted to sign them in free agency.

So what if the money is guaranteed? The Bills were going to pay Clay that money anyway.

And after the 2nd year, Clay will be cheap to keep for the next 3 years.

[Strongman]

I hope they don't do that. It tends to piss off players and make them less likely to accept a hometown discount or even force you to heavily outbid other teams in FA.

He's done well for the Bills and lived up to expectations so just pay him now or early in the season.

I agree with that, but I think Whaley has shown with Jarius Byrd that he will use the franchise tag to retain key players. If they can't get what they perceive as a fair contract worked out with Dareus, I'm certain he'll be tagged.

Note: I'm not a capologist, so my 11.5 million number could be off.

[CleveSteve]

Actually Cameron is only getting $4.5m this year and 9.5m next season. http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/miami-dolphins/jordan-cameron/

Couple things...

1) you are talking about the cap hit... he gets all $4 million signing bonus this year. Might already be in his bank account
2) something is wrong with those numbers. They say it's a $15 million contract, but $4.5 million + $9.5 million is $14 million.

[Jry44]

I'm not stressed or even animated about it, but you can't sit there and say that knowing that the big money is next year for Clay you aren't at least a little concerned with so many big names to sign next year.

I'm not in the least.

I love my Bills, but I have much bigger concerns than sports, firstly. Secondly, players will be released and contracts will be reworked. We see it all of the time. Furthermore, this league year is a week and a day old. TINS of things can still happen. I'm not walking out on ledges just yet.

[sukie]

The crying on Talk Radio down here is that there is really no weapons left for Tanneyballs to throw to with Wallace, Hartline, Clay and one other all gone.

As far as not being a game changer... Let him play and be utilized before that determination is made...

In Hockey, a floppy netminder was aquired from Chicago (I believe) and he became a game changer in Buffalo.

(I'm not referring to Rocky Farr... LOL)

[CleveSteve]

Yeah, Gibson is with the Pats now. The only receivers they have left from last season are Landry and Matthews, with Lynch and Dion Sims (plus Cameron) at TE. Also only have Lamar Miller on the roster at RB. I think their concerns are legit.

[OpIv37]

don't even ***** about this you negative a-holes. OBD is trying like hell to make a winner before the season even starts.
I'm so tired of this mentality, thinking that everyone who is objective enough to see the flaws in what the Bills are doing is somehow being negative just for the sake of being negative.

We are paying far more for Clay than the Pats are paying for Gronk. They have a better player and more cap room to pay other players. In the last two off-seasons, we upgraded all the skill positions but still lack the OL and QB to make it work. There weren't any real options for QB but there is no excuse for not addressing the OL.

We didn't add a single player on D, despite losing Alonso, Spikes and Searcy, and changing systems.

And now we are right up against the cap for next season with several key players on expiring contracts.

This is Snyder-esque and it shows Pegula didn't learn from what happened with the Sabres. He's trying to buy a championship and it isn't going to work because he's missing key components.

[Patrick76777]

OpIv37 =

[Meathead]

do we know if the bills as an organization has changed their philosophy on cash to cap since the pegs took over?

bc if so we would have a ton of flexibility in the short run (3-4 yrs) to keep anybody we wanted - at the expense of the future of course. but they could be trying a win now (next five years) and to hell with the future approach

not saying thats good, just a possibility

[Meathead]

opiv =

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/1/14/Ralph_Wiggum.png

[better days]

do we know if the bills as an organization has changed their philosophy on cash to cap since the pegs took over?

bc if so we would have a ton of flexibility in the short run (3-4 yrs) to keep anybody we wanted - at the expense of the future of course. but they could be trying a win now (next five years) and to hell with the future approach

not saying thats good, just a possibility

I think there is no question the Pegula's have a different approach to the cap than Ralph did.

The Pegula's have much more real money than Ralph did. That makes a huge difference when signing players.

The Raiders have a HUGE amount of cap space, but they don't have the actual cash money to pay for FA's, that is the reason they have not done much in free agency.

[Strongman]

I think there is no question the Pegula's have a different approach to the cap than Ralph did.

The Pegula's have much more real money than Ralph did. That makes a huge difference when signing players.

The Raiders have a HUGE amount of cap space, but they don't have the actual cash money to pay for FA's, that is the reason they have not done much in free agency.

I agree. Instead of using his own money, Ralph had the Bills organization finance itself. The Pegulas, on the other hand, seem to have no problem infusing their own money into the Bills.

[SpikedLemonade]

Bills lose sight of value with Charles Clay offer sheet

Are the Buffalo Bills (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/buf/buffalo-bills) on the cutting edge of NFL economics or are they just reckless spenders?

That's the question that comes to mind when considering the Bills' five-year, $38 million offer sheet extended to free-agent tight end Charles Clay, whom the Miami Dolphins (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/mia/miami-dolphins) assigned the transition tag.

Yes, the Bills can afford the deal under their 2015 salary cap and, yes, the Bills should benefit from the projected growth of the NFL's cap over the next several years, making the contract more palatable.

But Buffalo's approach in crafting this offer runs counter to how smart teams typically build their rosters. It harkens back to how the Bills madeMario Williams (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/9587/mario-williams) the NFL's highest-paid defender (http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7690355/buffalo-bills-agree-six-year-deal-mario-williams) in 2012 and how they dealt two first-round picks to acquire Sammy Watkins (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/16725/sammy-watkins) this past May.

In both cases, the justification for the high price was that it was necessary to bring both players to Buffalo. And in both cases, the exorbitant cost created high expectations that haven't always been met.

The ideal in the NFL is to find the defensive end who is worth $5 million but costs only $3 million, or to draft the receiver in the second round who is worth a first-round pick. That doesn't mean bargain shopping is the only way to win, but general mangers who understand value are often successful.

It's hard to find the value in this deal. Clay is a good tight end whose 2013 season (69 receptions for 759 yards and six touchdowns) is the closest he has come to justifying being the NFL's fourth-highest paid player at the position, which he would be if the Dolphins decline to match the Bills' offer.

But it's difficult to say Clay is worth $7.6 million per season, or that it's economical to pay him $20 million guaranteed. Regardless of whether that sort of money is necessary to lure him away from the Dolphins, it's overpaying for a player who must now meet inflated expectations.....


http://espn.go.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/18045/bills-lose-sight-of-value-with-charles-clay-offer-sheet?ex_cid=espnapi_public

[Historian]

Yea, and if we win the SB with this group then everybody will be lining up to overpay.

I say strike while the iron is hot.

[better days]

Bills lose sight of value with Charles Clay offer sheet

Are the Buffalo Bills (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/buf/buffalo-bills) on the cutting edge of NFL economics or are they just reckless spenders?

That's the question that comes to mind when considering the Bills' five-year, $38 million offer sheet extended to free-agent tight end Charles Clay, whom the Miami Dolphins (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/mia/miami-dolphins) assigned the transition tag.

Yes, the Bills can afford the deal under their 2015 salary cap and, yes, the Bills should benefit from the projected growth of the NFL's cap over the next several years, making the contract more palatable.

But Buffalo's approach in crafting this offer runs counter to how smart teams typically build their rosters. It harkens back to how the Bills madeMario Williams (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/9587/mario-williams) the NFL's highest-paid defender (http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7690355/buffalo-bills-agree-six-year-deal-mario-williams) in 2012 and how they dealt two first-round picks to acquire Sammy Watkins (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/16725/sammy-watkins) this past May.

In both cases, the justification for the high price was that it was necessary to bring both players to Buffalo. And in both cases, the exorbitant cost created high expectations that haven't always been met.

The ideal in the NFL is to find the defensive end who is worth $5 million but costs only $3 million, or to draft the receiver in the second round who is worth a first-round pick. That doesn't mean bargain shopping is the only way to win, but general mangers who understand value are often successful.

It's hard to find the value in this deal. Clay is a good tight end whose 2013 season (69 receptions for 759 yards and six touchdowns) is the closest he has come to justifying being the NFL's fourth-highest paid player at the position, which he would be if the Dolphins decline to match the Bills' offer.

But it's difficult to say Clay is worth $7.6 million per season, or that it's economical to pay him $20 million guaranteed. Regardless of whether that sort of money is necessary to lure him away from the Dolphins, it's overpaying for a player who must now meet inflated expectations.....


http://espn.go.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/18045/bills-lose-sight-of-value-with-charles-clay-offer-sheet?ex_cid=espnapi_public


Well, the good news is that the Bills also draft well after the first rnd. Better than most teams.

No first rnd pick this year, but I am confident the Bills will find a starter in the 2nd rnd.

Maybe someone people will say damn, how did he last that long in the draft? Like Kiko.

And Mario has played up to his contract. We will see about Sammy, if he is worth what the Bills gave up to draft him.

[OpIv37]

Well, the good news is that the Bills also draft well after the first rnd. Better than most teams.

No first rnd pick this year, but I am confident the Bills will find a starter in the 2nd rnd.

Maybe someone people will say damn, how did he last that long in the draft? Like Kiko.

And Mario has played up to his contract. We will see about Sammy, if he is worth what the Bills gave up to draft him.
Sammy is limited by our lack of QB and OL.

[better days]

Sammy is limited by our lack of QB and OL this year.

Fixed that for you.

Sammy will be a Bill for a NUMBER of years.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Maybe someone people will say damn, how did he last that long in the draft? Like Kiko.

Who?

[better days]

Who?

You know, the Eagles LB.

[justasportsfan]

I'm not just worried about how they will pay Dareus next year but if a top QB is available next year, we won't be able to join the bidding.

The bills future qb better be in the line up now. Drafting a qb will set this team back a few more years. I hope there are a few Andrew Lucks in next years draft.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

You know, the Eagles LB.

Never heard of him.

[starrymessenger]

Bills lose sight of value with Charles Clay offer sheet

Are the Buffalo Bills (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/buf/buffalo-bills) on the cutting edge of NFL economics or are they just reckless spenders?

That's the question that comes to mind when considering the Bills' five-year, $38 million offer sheet extended to free-agent tight end Charles Clay, whom the Miami Dolphins (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/mia/miami-dolphins) assigned the transition tag.

Yes, the Bills can afford the deal under their 2015 salary cap and, yes, the Bills should benefit from the projected growth of the NFL's cap over the next several years, making the contract more palatable.

But Buffalo's approach in crafting this offer runs counter to how smart teams typically build their rosters. It harkens back to how the Bills madeMario Williams (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/9587/mario-williams) the NFL's highest-paid defender (http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7690355/buffalo-bills-agree-six-year-deal-mario-williams) in 2012 and how they dealt two first-round picks to acquire Sammy Watkins (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/16725/sammy-watkins) this past May.

In both cases, the justification for the high price was that it was necessary to bring both players to Buffalo. And in both cases, the exorbitant cost created high expectations that haven't always been met.

The ideal in the NFL is to find the defensive end who is worth $5 million but costs only $3 million, or to draft the receiver in the second round who is worth a first-round pick. That doesn't mean bargain shopping is the only way to win, but general mangers who understand value are often successful.

It's hard to find the value in this deal. Clay is a good tight end whose 2013 season (69 receptions for 759 yards and six touchdowns) is the closest he has come to justifying being the NFL's fourth-highest paid player at the position, which he would be if the Dolphins decline to match the Bills' offer.

But it's difficult to say Clay is worth $7.6 million per season, or that it's economical to pay him $20 million guaranteed. Regardless of whether that sort of money is necessary to lure him away from the Dolphins, it's overpaying for a player who must now meet inflated expectations.....


http://espn.go.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/18045/bills-lose-sight-of-value-with-charles-clay-offer-sheet?ex_cid=espnapi_public


Spiked, this reporter guy is a fool. Clay, if healthy (and I have to think they checked out his knee before guaranteeing a big number) is worth what he is being paid. He is a complete stud. If we can close the deal our offence will be greatly improved because of him. He does not yet have the league wide fanbase recognition but the great news is that he will most probably acquire that in a Bills uni.

[better days]

Joe Buscaglia said on WGR this morning that the Bills can do whatever they want next year in regards to the cap, that Clay won't affect it at all.

[YardRat]

I love how we have to overpay Clay to threaten Miami with cap hell, but it's going to be easy for Buffalo to re-sign all of their own coming due for a payday because our front office is so much smarter at caponomics.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

I love how we have to overpay Clay to threaten Miami with cap hell, but it's going to be easy for Buffalo to re-sign all of their own coming due for a payday because our front office is so much smarter at caponomics.

And why are they in cap hell? Because they paid the hell out of a DT.

Oh wait...

[ct bills fan]

We'll be 35-40 million under the cap, including clays contract. That's plenty of space for dareus, Gilmore, bradham, and the LT + a qb, if a worthy one becomes available. Remember, Mario can be restructured and these new contracts don't have to have heavy yr1 hits.

[SpikedLemonade]

Money next year is not the issue.

[better days]

I love how we have to overpay Clay to threaten Miami with cap hell, but it's going to be easy for Buffalo to re-sign all of their own coming due for a payday because our front office is so much smarter at caponomics.

Well, Rat, the Fins just signed Suh to a HUGE contract that has a HUGE cap hit next year.

Also, the Fins need to sign Tannehill to a new contract SOON.

Yes the Bills have some players like Dareus they will have to resign next year, but they can structure the contract to affect the cap the way they want it to.

You were being factitous, but you hit the nail on the head.

And just as the Bills did not want to pay Searcy after paying Aaron Williams, the Fins may not want to pay Clay after signing Cameron to a $15 Mill contract.

Which by the way is only $100,000 less than the Bills are paying Clay per year.

[BertSquirtgum]

We'll be 35-40 million under the cap, including clays contract. That's plenty of space for dareus, Gilmore, bradham, and the LT + a qb, if a worthy one becomes available. Remember, Mario can be restructured and these new contracts don't have to have heavy yr1 hits.

How do you figure? Next years cap is only supposed to rise by 5 million.

[better days]

How do you figure? Next years cap is only supposed to rise by 5 million.

I don't know where you got that number from, but it has been widely reported the cap will go up $10 Mill next year to $133 Mill.

[gggbills]

Ok l have a question, they're saying on the Phin message board that perhaps they can match the offer and simply restructure it in year 2 there by making it more cap friendly and thus avoid the cap hell the Bills are trying to put them in. Is that correct? Is that all there is to it? And if this is true, what good does it do us to try to hurt the Pins in year 2 of the contract when all they have to do is restructure the contract? What am i missing?

[better days]

Ok l have a question, they're saying on the Phin message board that perhaps they can match the offer and simply restructure it in year 2 there by making it more cap friendly and thus avoid the cap hell the Bills are trying to put them in. Is that correct? Is that all there is to it? And if this is true, what good does it do us to try to hurt the Pins in year 2 of the contract when all they have to do is restructure the contract? What am i missing?

I think the Fins can do that, but the player has to agree to the restructure.

If the Fins match & next year Clay refuses to restructure his contract, the Fins will have to restructure or cut a different player.

At the very least, the Bills will have forced the Fins to pay more for Clay than they wanted to.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Ok l have a question, they're saying on the Phin message board that perhaps they can match the offer and simply restructure it in year 2 there by making it more cap friendly and thus avoid the cap hell the Bills are trying to put them in. Is that correct? Is that all there is to it? And if this is true, what good does it do us to try to hurt the Pins in year 2 of the contract when all they have to do is restructure the contract? What am i missing?

If the rumors are correct, the 2nd year part is already guaranteed, so there's no real way to restructure it into the future without giving him a raise.

[EDS]

I don't know where you got that number from, but it has been widely reported the cap will go up $10 Mill next year to $133 Mill.

Where do you get your numbers? The 2015 cap is $143+ million, with 2016 expected to be around $150m. The Bills are at approximately $110m for 2016, not including Clay or Harvin (and obviously not including Dareus, Gilmore, Glenn or Bradham).

[BertSquirtgum]

I don't know where you got that number from, but it has been widely reported the cap will go up $10 Mill next year to $133 Mill.

The salary cap is 143, 280,000 in 2015. They say it should be at most 150 million next year.

- - - Updated - - -

http://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

[Jry44]

The salary cap is 143, 280,000 in 2015. They say it should be at most 150 million next year.

- - - Updated - - -

http://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

I love how these websites have turned everyone into a salary cap expert. Who knows how accurate they actually are...

[better days]

The salary cap is 143, 280,000 in 2015. They say it should be at most 150 million next year.

- - - Updated - - -

http://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

ESPN says it could break $150 next year.

[ct bills fan]

numerous places said, based on revenues, it'll go up 10 million minimally in 2016 maybe as much as 20 million. Bills are in great shape compared to most in 2016 and even better in 2017

[psubills62]

@AdamSchefter

Dolphins are NOT matching 5-year, $38 million offer sheet that Buffalo gave TE Charles Clay, per sources. Bills have a new TE.

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/578576754169638912

[DraftBoy]

Florio has the same info as Schefter. Phins will not match.

[SpikedLemonade]

I'm glad it is over.

It is a lot of money, but I am glad we are spending this year.

[Ed]

Nice. Roman must have big plans for Clay since they made him such a priority. Big cap hits for the first two years, but Clay could end up looking like a real bargain from 2017-2019 when his cap hit drops significantly and he's only counting $4.5 mil/yr.

I think some of you are worrying too much about the 2016 cap. Even with Clay and Harvin, the Bills are still in good shape for next year. Signing Clay isn't going to prevent them from keeping any players that they want to keep. I've heard/read that the cap is expected to take a significant jump next year and could be around $160 mil.

[Jan Reimers]

Great news. Another piece of the puzzle. We're gaining on it.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Nice. Roman must have big plans for Clay since they made him such a priority. Big cap hits for the first two years, but Clay could end up looking like a real bargain from 2017-2019 when his cap hit drops significantly and he's only counting $4.5 mil/yr.

I think some of you are worrying too much about the 2016 cap. Even with Clay and Harvin, the Bills are still in good shape for next year. Signing Clay isn't going to prevent them from keeping any players that they want to keep. I've heard/read that the cap is expected to take a significant jump next year and could be around $160 mil.

If the cap jumps, that means all the other teams share in it, which drives up the price to keep our own talent.

[EDS]

Nice. Roman must have big plans for Clay since they made him such a priority. Big cap hits for the first two years, but Clay could end up looking like a real bargain from 2017-2019 when his cap hit drops significantly and he's only counting $4.5 mil/yr.

I think some of you are worrying too much about the 2016 cap. Even with Clay and Harvin, the Bills are still in good shape for next year. Signing Clay isn't going to prevent them from keeping any players that they want to keep. I've heard/read that the cap is expected to take a significant jump next year and could be around $160 mil.

Thank goodness the Bills do not have to worry about the cap gymnastics it would require to have a franchise QB on the roster.

[better days]

If the cap jumps, that means all the other teams share in it, which drives up the price to keep our own talent.

And all those teams have their own talent they have to keep as well.

[EDS]

And all those teams have their own talent they have to keep as well.

Well, not sure that is the case with the Raiders. Their young talent is still a few years from free agency and they can throw stupid money at free agents.

[SpikedLemonade]

This is the year to spend money rather than next year.

Next year the new TV contract money hits and the cap will go up by more than $10M to $160M. You can expect it to be the largest year over year increase ever.

Also, next year is the 4th and final year in the first 4 year period for the salary cap minimum. Teams that have not spent 89% of the salary cap over the 4 year period by the end of next year, basically forfeit the amount that is less than 89% which will be prorated backwards to the players on its team in that 4 year period. In other words, there will be teams like the Raiders, Jags, etc. who very much want to spend money but players will not want to go to losing programs unless they are grossly overpaid their then market value.

Again, this the year to spend money.

It would be wise to sign Dareus now to a new deal close to Suh's deal because if he hits FA next year, he will make more than Suh.

[Jan Reimers]

Great news. Another piece of the puzzle. We're gaining on it.

[Woodman]

Congrats to Doug Whaley .... he's doing a whale of a job.

Time to extend and restructure as many as we can.

Doug it's time to get back to work.

[TacklingDummy]

Great news. Another piece of the puzzle. We're gaining on it.
Without the most important piece it won't matter.

Hopefully EJ gets it.

[jills]

Woah! Clay is now becoming the most overrated player on the roster.

He had one good (not great, much less elite) season back in 2013, and yet he's the league's fourth-highest paid TE. He's not elite by any means, paying that much money for a player who's not a game changer like Gronk or Graham is dumb.

The fact that Miami didn't use the franchise tag on him is a red flag, if he was so indispensable they wouldn't be so willing to letting him walk (injuries, inconsistency and lack of elite traits may have played an important part in their decision).

[swiper]

Hopefully EJ gets it.

You, of all people, ....

[TacklingDummy]

You, of all people, ....

For 15 years I've been yelling, "it's the quarterback".
EJ is going to make or break this team.

Didn't Rex Ryan with the Jets bring in all these Free Agents only to never have the QB to go along with it? We've seen this movie played out before. It's a flop because there's never a QB to go along with it.

[better days]

For 15 years I've been yelling, "it's the quarterback".
EJ is going to make or break this team.

Didn't Rex Ryan with the Jets bring in all these Free Agents only to never have the QB to go along with it? We've seen this movie played out before. It's a flop because there's never a QB to go along with it.

Maybe EJ does get it or maybe Cassel becomes Rich Gannon 2.0.

We have to hope for one of those two things happening.

[swiper]

Maybe EJ does get it or maybe Cassel becomes Rich Gannon 2.0.

We have to hope for one of those two things happening.

I would be happy with the latter for sure.

[SpikedLemonade]

@RavensInsider: Charles Clay Bills deal: $38M, $10M bonus, $24.5M gtd, salaries $3M, $1.5M, $4.5M, $4.5M, $4.5M, has no trade clause for first three years

[YardRat]

@RavensInsider: Charles Clay Bills deal: $38M, $10M bonus, $24.5M gtd, salaries $3M, $1.5M, $4.5M, $4.5M, $4.5M, has no trade clause for first three years

I think there is another $10M bonus in '16 also.

[SpikedLemonade]

I think there is another $10M bonus in '16 also.

Yep and it is guaranteed.

That is how you get to $24.5M guaranteed in the first 2 years.

[The Jokeman]

Yep and it is guaranteed.

That is how you get to $24.5M guaranteed in the first 2 years.

Outside of 2016 the contract isn't that bad year by year. Good work by management working out the details.

[SpikedLemonade]

Outside of 2016 the contract isn't that bad year by year. Good work by management working out the details.

If he does well in those 2 years, he will have forgotten about how much he got paid in the 1st 2 years and sit out wanting more than $4.5M per year for the next 3 years.

Puts a lot of leverage in his hands.

[The Jokeman]

If he does well in those 2 years, he will have forgotten about how much he got paid in the 1st 2 years and sit out wanting more than $4.5M per year for the next 3 years.

Puts a lot of leverage in his hands.

With the no trade clause in year 3 it tells me he feels committed to staying in Buffalo initially and if we win more than lose am sure he'll want to stay. If he balks for more money it's certainly doable as the cap rises every year and guys like Freddie Jackson, Mario and Kyle Williams start to age and retire we can afford to give Clay more if warranted. Also Percy and Shady could be gone by too so it's not far fetched to give him an extension in 2018.

[better days]

Woah! Clay is now becoming the most overrated player on the roster.

He had one good (not great, much less elite) season back in 2013, and yet he's the league's fourth-highest paid TE. He's not elite by any means, paying that much money for a player who's not a game changer like Gronk or Graham is dumb.

The fact that Miami didn't use the franchise tag on him is a red flag, if he was so indispensable they wouldn't be so willing to letting him walk (injuries, inconsistency and lack of elite traits may have played an important part in their decision).

Clay will be an EVERY DOWN player on the Bills.

His versatility & the fact he will see so much playing time is the reason he was paid so much money.

And Miami made a MISTAKE not using the franchise tag on him.

If they could have a do over, the Fins would have probably used the franchise tag on Clay.

I doubt the Fins thought the Bills would be so aggressive in signing Clay.

[Yasgur's Farm]

Cap hits

2015 = $5M
2016 = $6M
2017 = $9M
2018 = $9M
2019 = $9M

[wmoz11]

Cap hits

2015 = $5M
2016 = $6M
2017 = $9M
2018 = $9M
2019 = $9M

It's actually: 2015: 5M, 2016: 13.5M, and 2017-2019: 6.5M

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/charles-clay/

[SpikedLemonade]

It's actually: 2015: 5M, 2016: 13.5M, and 2017-2019: 6.5M

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/charles-clay/

That made sense.

The $10M roster bonus in 2016 does not get spread for cap purposes.

[jills]

Clay will be an EVERY DOWN player on the Bills.

His versatility & the fact he will see so much playing time is the reason he was paid so much money.

And Miami made a MISTAKE not using the franchise tag on him.

If they could have a do over, the Fins would have probably used the franchise tag on Clay.

I doubt the Fins thought the Bills would be so aggressive in signing Clay.

The fact that Miami was already looking for an upgrade tells you everything you need to know. They tried to trade for Jimmy Graham and signed a better player (minus the injuries) in Cameron.

It appears they didn't want Clay back that bad and were prepared to letting him walk for free. If they viewed Clay as an irreplaceable player they would have franchised him.

[Yasgur's Farm]

That made sense.

The $10M roster bonus in 2016 does not get spread for cap purposes.Team option to amortize... It's very likely they will... Therefore 2016 = $6M.

[better days]

The fact that Miami was already looking for an upgrade tells you everything you need to know. They tried to trade for Jimmy Graham and signed a better player (minus the injuries) in Cameron.

It appears they didn't want Clay back that bad and were prepared to letting him walk for free. If they viewed Clay as an irreplaceable player they would have franchised him.

When did they try to trade for Graham? After they knew they would lose Clay to the Bills.

Like i said, the Fins made a MISTAKE not franchising Clay because they did not think the Bills would go after him so aggressively.

[wmoz11]

The fact that Miami was already looking for an upgrade tells you everything you need to know. They tried to trade for Jimmy Graham and signed a better player (minus the injuries) in Cameron.

It appears they didn't want Clay back that bad and were prepared to letting him walk for free. If they viewed Clay as an irreplaceable player they would have franchised him.

Yet they were offering him long-term contracts throughout the transition tag period. They only went looking for "upgrades" after it became clear that he would be lost to Buffalo. Not to mention the fact that they placed the transition tag on him in the first place; committing to playing him at least 7M in 2015.

[jills]

When did they try to trade for Graham? After they knew they would lose Clay to the Bills.

Like i said, the Fins made a MISTAKE not franchising Clay because they did not think the Bills would go after him so aggressively.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5842/jimmy-graham

No, it was at the beginning of free agency.

They made a mistake upgrading a player they no longer wanted back? I don't think so.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

The put the transition tag on him for the same reason that Cleveland did it to Mack (a much better player). It's a compromise in letting the market set his value while still giving Miami a chance to keep him. If the Suh deal had fallen through, they might well have done so.

[jills]

Yet they were offering him long-term contracts throughout the transition tag period. They only went looking for "upgrades" after it became clear that he would be lost to Buffalo. Not to mention the fact that they placed the transition tag on him in the first place; committing to playing him at least 7M in 2015.

No, they were looking for upgrades before that and still ended up with a better player.

[better days]

No, they were looking for upgrades before that and still ended up with a better player.

No they did not end up with a better player.

Clay is a better all around TE with no concussion history.

[jills]

No they did not end up with a better player.

Clay is a better all around TE with no concussion history.

LOL! do yourself a favor and compare their best seasons.

Clay has a bad knee, your point?

[wmoz11]

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5842/jimmy-graham

No, it was at the beginning of free agency.

They made a mistake upgrading a player they no longer wanted back? I don't think so.

If they no longer wanted him back, why did they continue to offer contract extensions? Why were there multiple reports stating their desire to have both Cameron and Clay and utilize them like the Pats used Gronk and Hernandez? Why didn't they remove the transition tag (obviously they wanted Buffalo to think they'd match, but why risk Buffalo not making an offer or Clay wanting to come to Buffalo and be stuck with his 7M)?

[better days]

LOL! do yourself a favor and compare their best seasons.

Clay has a bad knee, your point?

My point is players can come back from MULTIPLE knee injuries much more than MULTIPLE concussions.

And there is no way to compare what Clay can do to what Cameron can do by looking at a stats sheet.

Like I said, Clay will be on the field MUCH more than Cameron will because of his versatility.

[better days]

And Carpenter, Incognito & Clay, the Bills have poached some pretty good former Fins players.

Buffalo....Miami North.

[jills]

If they no longer wanted him back, why did they continue to offer contract extensions? Why were there multiple reports stating their desire to have both Cameron and Clay and utilize them like the Pats used Gronk and Hernandez? Why didn't they remove the transition tag (obviously they wanted Buffalo to think they'd match, but why risk Buffalo not making an offer or Clay wanting to come to Buffalo and be stuck with his 7M)?

They wanted him back at the right price, and that didn't stop them from looking to upgrade the position, first with Graham then with Cameron. They know he's not worth that contract and decided to let him go.

[better days]

They wanted him back at the right price, and that didn't stop them from looking to upgrade the position, first with Graham then with Cameron. They know he's not worth that contract and decided to let him go.

No question Graham would have been an upgrade over Clay if they could have gotten him.

I guess Miami did not think Graham was worth the cost it would take to get him because they did not complete that trade.

Miami did not upgrade with Cameron, they settled for Cameron because they knew they could not match the contract the Bills offered Clay.

[jills]

My point is players can come back from MULTIPLE knee injuries much more than MULTIPLE concussions.

And there is no way to compare what Clay can do to what Cameron can do by looking at a stats sheet.

Like I said, Clay will be on the field MUCH more than Cameron will because of his versatility.

Clay didn't play all games last year because he was injured, (knee/hamstring). We'll see if that trend continues. Cameron is a bigger injury risk but also offers a bigger reward if healthy.

Being versatile doesn't mean he's the better player, I'm sorry but Cameron > Clay, any NFL fan can tell you that.

[better days]

Clay didn't play all games last year because he was injured, (knee/hamstring). We'll see if that trend continues. Cameron is a bigger injury risk but also offers a bigger reward if healthy.

Being versatile doesn't mean he's the better player, I'm sorry but Cameron > Clay, any NFL fan can tell you that.

If Cameron is a better player than Clay, then he will be on the field more than Clay next year....which won't happen.

[jills]

If Cameron is a better player than Clay, then he will be on the field more than Clay next year....which won't happen.

Cameron is a better player because he's a bigger playmaker than Clay. Ask any NFL fan who's better and you will be shocked with the responses.

[better days]

Cameron is a better player because he's a bigger playmaker than Clay. Ask any NFL fan who's better and you will be shocked with the responses.

Cameron has never played 16 games in any season.

Cameron's numbers look much more comparable to a TE the Bills just cut than a playmaker.

10 TD's for his entire career. 2 TD's last year. 1600 yds in his 4 year career.

Clay in the same 4 year career:

14 TD's. Clay also has 1 TD rushing for a total of 15 TD's. 1809 Yds.

Aside from his versatility, Clay has been more productive in his career than Cameron.

Clay is the BETTER player.

[Strongman]

Cameron is a better player because he's a bigger playmaker than Clay. Ask any NFL fan who's better and you will be shocked with the responses.

PFF grades for 2014:

Clay is +4.9
Cameron is -10.2

According to advanced NFL stats community, the Bills got a better player at the market price. BTW, the Fins also overpaid for Cameron.

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/metric-based-nfl-free-agency-tracker

[IlluminatusUIUC]

PFF grades for 2014:

Clay is +4.9
Cameron is -10.2

According to advanced NFL stats community, the Bills got a better player at the market price. BTW, the Fins also overpaid for Cameron.

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/metric-based-nfl-free-agency-tracker

I do not understand why anyone gives credence to Pro Football Focus, but it should be noted that they specifically criticized the risk involved in the Clay signing:
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/03/25/buffalos-new-pieces/

Charles Clay, TE It is not the purpose of this article to comment on the contracts offered to the newcomers, but we need to address the elephant in the room: more than $20 million guaranteed for a tight end not named Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham? Let’s see what the Bills are getting at this high price.


The huge question mark is which Charles Clay the Bills will see in 2015? The 2011 Clay, who was an adequate run blocker (+1.6), but a below average pass catcher (-3.4)? The 2012 Clay, who flashed ability as a pass blocker (+1.6), but did not contribute much in the other aspects of the game? The 2013 Clay, who exceled as a receiver (+5.0), but struggled as a run blocker (-5.0)? Or the 2014 Clay, who performed well everywhere except pass protection (-2.9)?


It is hard to look at Clay’s performance without noticing the inconsistency in his play; he has shown ability in all areas, but rarely at the same time. Obviously, the Bills hope he will repeat his best performance from each category in 2015, but do appear to be paying for potential.


One aspect where he would certainly bring something new to Buffalo is vertically extending the middle of the field. In 2014, Buffalo tight ends had a total of three targets when the ball traveled more than 20 yards and made only one reception. Clay alone had eight such targets and caught all five catchable balls, the same number as New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski.

And the McCoy trade:


LeSean McCoy, RB The acquisition of McCoy through a trade from Philadelphia was perhaps the most noteworthy of all the offensive additions the Bills made over the past month. However, Ryan has not brought the offensive line with him from New York and that may be a problem for McCoy, because as we look at his performance over the past two seasons, we can see that it heavily relied on the offensive line in front of him.


In 2013, McCoy was our highest-graded halfback with an overall grade of +27.3, while playing behind the NFL’s best run-blocking unit. However, McCoy’s overall grade of -9.3 was good for only the 55th place among the 57 qualifying halfbacks in 2014. Though the Eagles line still ended up ranked No. 1 by the end of the season, that belies the major struggles it experienced early in the season, contributing to McCoy’s decline. Suspensions, injuries and some shaky play from backups who were forced into starting positions all caused major hiccups to the unit at points in 2014. Consequently, it may be bad news for McCoy that the Bills’ offensive line ranked dead last in run blocking (https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/01/08/2014-pff-offensive-line-rankings/) last season.

The advanced stats "community" actually doesn't like our offseason at all. Football Outsiders ranked us 24th in value (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/free-agency-cost-benefit-analysis), when I asked about Clay's contract, which wasn't included, they said it dropped us to 28th.

You can praise the offseason moves if you like, but you can't do it with advanced stats. This offseason has been a nightmare for analytics.

[better days]

I do not understand why anyone gives credence to Pro Football Focus, but it should be noted that they specifically criticized the risk involved in the Clay signing:
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/03/25/buffalos-new-pieces/


And the McCoy trade:


The advanced stats "community" actually doesn't like our offseason at all. Football Outsiders ranked us 24th in value (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/free-agency-cost-benefit-analysis), when I asked about Clay's contract, which wasn't included, they said it dropped us to 28th.

You can praise the offseason moves if you like, but you can't do it with advanced stats. This offseason has been a nightmare for analytics.

Yeah, well come back & tell us what they think AFTER the next season is OVER.

There is no question, Fins fans hated to lose Clay. He was a great pick up for the Bills & will help the Bills win games.

[Strongman]

I do not understand why anyone gives credence to Pro Football Focus, but it should be noted that they specifically criticized the risk involved in the Clay signing:
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/03/25/buffalos-new-pieces/


And the McCoy trade:


The advanced stats "community" actually doesn't like our offseason at all. Football Outsiders ranked us 24th in value (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/free-agency-cost-benefit-analysis), when I asked about Clay's contract, which wasn't included, they said it dropped us to 28th.

You can praise the offseason moves if you like, but you can't do it with advanced stats. This offseason has been a nightmare for analytics.

I think you are misreading what I wrote. You are confusing praising our offseason when I am simply trying to show that, according to advanced stats, Clay is a more productive TE than Cameron. Nothing more and nothing less.

BTW, the Football Outsiders link you provided also shows the Bills' offseason is going better than the Fins' offseason... which supports the point I was making to the Fin's fan.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

I think you are misreading what I wrote. You are confusing praising our offseason when I am simply trying to show that, according to advanced stats, Clay is a more productive TE than Cameron. Nothing more and nothing less.

BTW, the Football Outsiders link you provided also shows the Bills' offseason is going better than the Fins' offseason... which supports the point I was making to the Fin's fan.

Fair enough. I agree about the Fins' offseason for the most part - Suh is a one man wrecking ball but handing out one of the largest contracts in history in free agency is a very risky move. At least they were able to shed some of the crap from their last deep drink from the FA well.

[Strongman]

Fair enough. I agree about the Fins' offseason for the most part - Suh is a one man wrecking ball but handing out one of the largest contracts in history in free agency is a very risky move. At least they were able to shed some of the crap from their last deep drink from the FA well.

Sun is a dominate player, but yeah, that's a lot of money. The Bills are going to face a similar problem with Dareus.

[jills]

Cameron has never played 16 games in any season.

Cameron's numbers look much more comparable to a TE the Bills just cut than a playmaker.

10 TD's for his entire career. 2 TD's last year. 1600 yds in his 4 year career.

Clay in the same 4 year career:

14 TD's. Clay also has 1 TD rushing for a total of 15 TD's. 1809 Yds.

Aside from his versatility, Clay has been more productive in his career than Cameron.

Clay is the BETTER player.

Clay did it just ONCE, let's not act like he's super durable.

Cameron's best season:

Rec: 80
Yds: 917
TD: 7

Clay's best season:

Rec: 69
Yds:759
TD: 6

Do I have to mention Cameron has suffered from worse QB play than Clay?

Cameron has more upside than Clay. There's a reason he was ranked higher in most free agent lists.

[jills]

PFF grades for 2014:

Clay is +4.9
Cameron is -10.2

According to advanced NFL stats community, the Bills got a better player at the market price. BTW, the Fins also overpaid for Cameron.

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/metric-based-nfl-free-agency-tracker

I'm sorry, Clay shouldn't be the league's fourth-highest paid tight end, that kind of salary is only worth if such player is an elite one.

Overpaid? Cameron is basically on a 1 year deal.

[Strongman]

I'm sorry, Clay shouldn't be the league's fourth-highest paid tight end, that kind of salary is only worth if such player is an elite one.

Overpaid? Cameron is basically on a 1 year deal.

The projected stats say Clay is being slightly overpaid vs. his production whereas Cameron is being way overpaid. Sorry, but I'm going to trust the opinion of some guys who have watched every play these two have played and quantified it over a random fan on a message board.

[better days]

Clay did it just ONCE, let's not act like he's super durable.

Cameron's best season:

Rec: 80
Yds: 917
TD: 7

Clay's best season:

Rec: 69
Yds:759
TD: 6

Do I have to mention Cameron has suffered from worse QB play than Clay?

Cameron has more upside than Clay. There's a reason he was ranked higher in most free agent lists.

NO Cameron does not have more upside than Clay.

And in that year you showed, Clay also had a rushing TD, so he had 7 TD's total that year.

Like I said, 15 TD's for Clay to 10 TD's for Cameron in their careers. Clay is the better player.

[better days]

I'm sorry, Clay shouldn't be the league's fourth-highest paid tight end, that kind of salary is only worth if such player is an elite one.

Overpaid? Cameron is basically on a 1 year deal.

That is the kind of salary a transition tagged player gets.

Any TE that is signed off a team in the future while having the transition tag will get at least as much money as Clay got.

And if Cameron is such a good player with so much upside, why did he only get a "basically one year deal"?

[Strongman]

That is the kind of salary a transition tagged player gets.

Any TE that is signed off a team in the future while having the transition tag will get at least as much money as Clay got.

And if Cameron is such a good player with so much upside, why did he only get a "basically one year deal"?

We paid what we had to to get him. It looks like we slightly overpaid for him, but sometimes you do have to overpay to get the player you need for your system. After years of bringing in scrubs or players past their prime who get us to 6-10 seasons, I'm okay with this approach.

[Mr. Pink]

Cameron is a better player than Clay however his concussion history makes Clay a better choice.

It doesn't matter how good you are if you can't stay on the field.

[better days]

Cameron is a better player than Clay however his concussion history makes Clay a better choice.

It doesn't matter how good you are if you can't stay on the field.

I have not really watched Cameron play all that much but I doubt you have seen Clay play much either to make that judgement call.

Looking at the numbers, Clay is the better player. And Clay is MUCH MORE VERSITLE than Cameron which makes him more valuable especially on the Bills.

Why is Cameron even better than Chandler who the Bills cut?

[swiper]

Some people are way overstating what Clay is. He is not Gates. He is very mediocre. At best.

[better days]

Some people are way overstating what Clay is. He is not Gates. He is very mediocre. At best.

Mediocre players do not get the transition tag applied to them.

[swiper]

LOL. Sure they do. There is nothing on his stat sheet that shows he's close to worth the big deal being made over him. The Dolphins put that tag on him knowing he was a target of an inter-divisional rival to drive up his price.

[better days]

LOL. Sure they do. There is nothing on his stat sheet that shows he's close to worth the big deal being made over him. The Dolphins put that tag on him knowing he was a target of an inter-divisional rival to drive up his price.

NO, they don't.

The Fins did not want to lose Clay.

[swiper]

NO, they don't.

The Fins did not want to lose Clay.

Yeah. LOL. Keep telling yourself that. You are quite the gullible homer.

[YardRat]

And if Cameron is such a good player with so much upside, why did he only get a "basically one year deal"?

To be fair, one can say the same thing about Harvin this season, and Spikes last season.

[swiper]

And if Cameron is such a good player with so much upside, why did he only get a "basically one year deal"?

LOL. More nonsense. Answer: to see if he can stay healthy.

[better days]

To be fair, one can say the same thing about Harvin this season, and Spikes last season.

NOBODY claimed that either of them was better with a higher upside than a player that had the transition tag applied to him.

[The Jokeman]

Mediocre players do not get the transition tag applied to them.

They do if the team he's on is preparing to release it's best three WRs in UFAs. I think looking back at the offers the contracts and things Miami did this offseason they gave Clay the transition tag to secure themselves the chance to bring him back if some other things failed. More specifically finding a better TE, and to me Cameron is a better TE than Clay, and/or they couldn't find a replacement for Wallace. They were able to do both and because they were able to get Suh they felt Clay was expendable. It's not to say Clay isn't worth the money we gave him as think he was when look at the contract at the whole he deserves it. Sure we over spent for him in the first two years but it was in part because we wanted to secure Clay and in the grand scheme of things it was worth it as to me Clay is better than Chandler. As to me a healthy Clay should finish in the top 10 receiving yards for a TE if he plays a full 16 game season which tells me he's above average and worth getting the overall contract we gave him.

[better days]

LOL. More nonsense. Answer: to see if he can stay healthy.

Well, where is the upside of a player that can't stay healthy?

[swiper]

Well, where is the upside of a player that can't stay healthy?

That's not the point. Why would you sign a player with multiple concussions to a contract longer than that despite how good he may be?

[better days]

They do if the team he's on is preparing to release it's best three WRs in UFAs. I think looking back at the offers the contracts and things Miami did this offseason they gave Clay the transition tag to secure themselves the chance to bring him back if some other things failed. More specifically finding a better TE, and to me Cameron is a better TE than Clay, and/or they couldn't find a replacement for Wallace. They were able to do both and because they were able to get Suh they felt Clay was expendable. It's not to say Clay isn't worth the money we gave him as think he was when look at the contract at the whole he deserves it. Sure we over spent for him in the first two years but it was in part because we wanted to secure Clay and in the grand scheme of things it was worth it as to me Clay is better than Chandler. As to me a healthy Clay should finish in the top 10 receiving yards for a TE if he plays a full 16 game season which tells me he's above average and worth getting the overall contract we gave him.

If Clay had signed the tag, the Fins would have been on the hook for it.

They wanted to keep Clay if they could, even if they added another TE.

And a player with 10 TD's for his career, is not a better TE than Clay.

[The Jokeman]

That's not the point. Why would you sign a player with multiple concussions to a contract longer than that despite how good he may be?

To ensure you have him long term. Concussions are a scary thing and while 1 concussion increases the chance at guaranteeing another concussion it doesn't mean a guy will necessarily get one. All things considered I think Miami improved their TE position but so did the Bills but the Bills have a had a better overall offseason when it comes to offensive players so like what we've done more. To me Miami put too many eggs in the Suh basket.

[better days]

That's not the point. Why would you sign a player with multiple concussions to a contract longer than that despite how good he may be?

YES it is the point.

You said Cameron had more upside than Clay.

AGAIN, where is the upside to a player with multiple concussions in his history?

[The Jokeman]

If Clay had signed the tag, the Fins would have been on the hook for it.

They wanted to keep Clay if they could, even if they added another TE.

And a player with 10 TD's for his career, is not a better TE than Clay.

Cameron is a more dangerous after the catch type TE than Clay ever will be. I think the Dolphins tagged him because they weren't sure they'd be able to land Cameron (or Jimmy Graham as reports show now they tried to get) and if they couldn't they knew they could default to Clay. I'm not knocking Clay as I like the signing but just being honest because at the start of preseason I stated emphatically that Cameron was my number 1 target in UFA outside of re-signing Hughes. Am I upset we had to settle on Clay? Nope as I never envisioned us getting McCoy or Harvin and to me that is better than Cameron and the Jay Ajayi that I envisioned us landing this offseason.

[better days]

Cameron is a more dangerous after the catch type TE than Clay ever will be. I think the Dolphins tagged him because they weren't sure they'd be able to land Cameron (or Jimmy Graham as reports show now they tried to get) and if they couldn't they knew they could default to Clay. I'm not knocking Clay as I like the signing but just being honest because at the start of preseason I stated emphatically that Cameron was my number 1 target in UFA outside of re-signing Hughes. Am I upset we had to settle on Clay? Nope as I never envisioned us getting McCoy or Harvin and to me that is better than Cameron and the Jay Ajayi that I envisioned us landing this offseason.

Cameron may be faster, I don't know, but I would bet you Clay is harder to tackle than Cameron.

And again, I think Chandler is a better TE than Cameron with his 10 TD's in his career, 7 of them in one season.

Why should anyone expect another year like his best year out of Cameron again?

[The Jokeman]

Cameron may be faster, I don't know, but I would bet you Clay is harder to tackle than Cameron.

And again, I think Chandler is a better TE than Cameron with his 10 TD's in his career, 7 of them in one season.

Why should anyone expect another year like his best year out of Cameron again?
I expect Clay to get 50-60 catches with about 600-650 yards and 5 TDs which is more than can say would predict from Chandler. Cameron has a chance to get 50-80 catches for 600-800 yards and 4-9 TDs.

[Mr. Pink]

Chandler better than Cameron? Give me a break.

If, and this is a HUGE if, Cameron could stay healthy he'd be the 3rd best TE in the league.

He can't stay healthy and that is a blemish against him.

But if you think Clay or Chandler could ever put up an 80 catch 900 yards 7 TD season, you're nuts. BTW, Cameron has done that with crap QBing.

[better days]

Chandler better than Cameron? Give me a break.

If, and this is a HUGE if, Cameron could stay healthy he'd be the 3rd best TE in the league.

He can't stay healthy and that is a blemish against him.

But if you think Clay or Chandler could ever put up an 80 catch 900 yards 7 TD season, you're nuts. BTW, Cameron has done that with crap QBing.

ONE time in his career, Cameron did that.

Why should we think he can do it again?

And the year he put up 7TD's, Clay put up 7 TD's as well.

[Mr. Pink]

ONE time in his career, Cameron did that.

Why should we think he can do it again?

And the year he put up 7TD's, Clay put up 7 TD's as well.

If he could stay healthy, that's what he can do...he cannot stay healthy.

He is more talented than both Clay and Chandler but it doesn't matter when you can't stay on the field. If Cameron could stay on the field, he would have got a contract that mirrored Jimmy Graham's.

[better days]

If he could stay healthy, that's what he can do...he cannot stay healthy.

He is more talented than both Clay and Chandler but it doesn't matter when you can't stay on the field. If Cameron could stay on the field, he would have got a contract that mirrored Jimmy Graham's.

Well, I have read Cameron can not block worth a damn, so he is not better than Clay even if he could stay healthy.

Cameron is a one trick pony. He is a receiver in the TE spot.

Clay is a versatile TE that can do everything a TE should be able to do & Clay can do EVERYTHING well.

[better days]

Arguing about Clay reminds me of last year at this time when I was arguing about Spikes.

I said Spikes would be a great addition to the Bills & the run defense would be a HUGE improvement from the year before with Spikes at MLB.

People argued that Spikes was a one to two down LB at best, not worth the effort or money to sign him.

After just a few games into the season, EVERYONE was on board with the Spikes signing.

Well, I am telling you all, after a few games, EVERYONE will be on board with the Clay signing.

Clay may not have as many catches as Cameron this year, but then again, maybe he will.

And Clay will help spring McCoy, Harvin & others for BIG plays this year.

Cameron may catch some passes for Miami, but I am telling you all, they will miss what Clay brought to that team.