Comparing defenses, 2013 to 2014

[YardRat]

The following is a list of 11 major defensive statistical categories taken from NFL.com, and how the Bills ended up ranking league-wide under Schwartz last season and under Pettine in '13 (in parenthesis).

Points per game--4--(20)
Yards per game--4--(10)
Yards per point--3--(6)
1st downs allowed per game--5--(12)
3rd down % allowed--1--(14)
Fumbles recovered--10--(25)
Rush yards per game--11--(28)
Passing yards per game--3--(4)
Sacks--1--(2)
Interceptions--6--(2)
QB rating--2--(3)

As you can see, the defense improved in '14 in every category except one (interceptions), some significantly.
In '14, the team ranked in the Top 6 in the league in nine of the eleven, in '13 five.
In '14, the team ranked in the top third in virtually every category, in '13 they weren't even able to crack the top 20 in three, including two of the most significant (points allowed and rushing yards allowed).
In another very significant category, third down percentage allowed, the jump from '13 to '14 was monumental...from middle of the pack (14th) to the very best (#1).

Pettine's D was good against the pass, horrible against the run, not so great in points allowed, and had trouble closing out drives (3rd downs). It could actually be argued that Pettine's 'success' against the pass is a little bit of an illusion considering how poorly they fared against the run. Why pass the ball when you can gouge the defense on the ground consistently?

Schwartz's defense, with virtually the same roster, was dominant, even without a Pro Bowl safety and a DROY candidate at LBer. Not just in spots, but across the board. Even last year's worst category, rushing yards per game, was 17 spots better than '13, and nowhere near the bottom 5 in the league. Not to get all 'Wys-ie', but consider the Oakland game an anomaly and the '14 defense would have been top 10 in that category also.

You can't win without talent, granted, regardless of the scheme that is employed, but if the above isn't an indication that success is built through matching up talent with scheme than I don't know what is.

Rex doesn't think 4th is good enough? With his scheme and this roster, he has a better chance of reverting to results similar to what we saw under Pettine, as opposed to getting better than Schwartz. I'm by no means a negative nancy, as a matter of fact I tend to lean on the homer side of the fence, but I do have my moments and the defensive 'switch-back' this off-season is one of them.

[Buffalo Billy Bison]

I would like to see Spikes back for run protection and could use him when using the 3-4 defense don't you think? A little more depth their in the LB'ers is needed and I worry about our D-Backs somewhat. I think if we get another "good" guard for the right side and another good TE, the offense should be stout and the run game great again! All in all I love what the FO has done for our team so far this off season!

[better days]

You do not need a DROY candidate when you have Brandon Spikes playing MLB instead of Kiko Alonso.

And that is a HUGE reason the defense improved so much last year against the run.

And there were other GOOD additions on defense as well last year, such as Preston Brown & Cory Graham.

Wait & see, this defense will be at least as good as it was last year.

[YardRat]

I would like to have Spikes back also, but the middle 'backers are the least of concerns, not as worrisome as the OLB's, NT and RDE.

[YardRat]

You do not need a DROY candidate when you have Brandon Spikes playing MLB instead of Kiko Alonso.

And that is a HUGE reason the defense improved so much last year against the run.

And there were other GOOD additions on defense as well last year, such as Preston Brown & Cory Graham.

Wait & see, this defense will be at least as good as it was last year.

I hope you are right. I really, really do. Nothing would make me happier than to head into the playoffs eating crow and admitting I was wrong. I'm not holding my breath though, just yet.

[better days]

I hope you are right. I really, really do. Nothing would make me happier than to head into the playoffs eating crow and admitting I was wrong. I'm not holding my breath though, just yet.

Well, I can promise you it was Brandon Spikes out on the field, stopping run plays & improving the defense from what it was the year before, not Schwartz.

And I was a big proponent of Schwartz last year at this time.

MANY people on this board were saying the defense would suffer with Pettine leaving for Cleveland.

I said the Bills need to sign Spikes & the defense would be fine with Schwartz as DC.

This year I am saying pretty much the same thing, the defense will be fine with Rex in charge, but I really would like to see Spikes on the team next year.

[Novacane]

Spikes should come pretty cheap. Doesn't seem like anyone wants him.

[BuffaloRedleg]

Players get better too. I think coaching is somewhat overrated. Proper execution is not as valued enough by fans, and psychologically it is easier to blame 1 guy for making a bad/good plan than a bunch of guys for not executing/executing it properly.

[better days]

Players get better too. I think coaching is somewhat overrated. Proper execution is not as valued enough by fans, and psychologically it is easier to blame 1 guy for making a bad/good plan than a bunch of guys for not executing/executing it properly.

It is a combination of both Coaching/scheme & player talent.

Even the best Coach can not turn a mediocre player into a pro bowl player.

But GOOD Coaching can get a player to perform up to his maximum ability.

[The Beef]

Highly doubt we see Spikes back.

Whaley has done a great job of locating starting LB'S in the draft, they'll get a thumper for depth and ST's.

Same goes for Rex and DL. They'll get a DL or two in the draft to come in and be plug and play.

Do not be surprised to see this draft go heavy o the defensive side.

I'd say we're a lock to go DL, LB and S in the draft. Don't be surprised to see a CB either. Robey is going to be the odd man out when his contract is up because he'll get some good change to be a slot CB. That's not going to be here with Gilmore getting paid, as well as Leodis is making decent change as is Graham for a depth player.

Only way I see an offensive player being picked early is if someone drastically slips or they really loves someone like Maxx Williams.

I'm guessing DL at pick 50.

[YardRat]

With all of the attention paid to the offensive this off-season so far, I'm leaning toward a defensive-heavy draft myself.

[Topas]

I tend to agree, then again I am not.

I do think Schwartz defense was better and I am concerned about the switch back to the Pettine/Ryan defense and I am afraid that teams will run all over us.

But I disagree about the difference between the 2013 and 2014 defense. Conventional stats suck. I am a big proponent of DVOA at footballoutsiders.com. They both adjust per quality of opponent and they also do calculate the performance on a per play basis. That means if the defense is out there for 40 min because the O keeps turning over the ball, the D will not be punished for that. And the third factor is that they measure success and not total performance. With that I mean a 10 yard run on 3rd and 15 is good for the defense. While the conventional stats will say that the RB got 10 yards and that is great and the RB might get a high yards per rush average due to that.

These are three reasons why I like DVOA a lot better. Now if you compare DVOA of 2013 and 2014 it looks like that.

Rank 2014 (2013)
total D 2 (4)
run D 1 (2)
pass D 12 (19)

Basically that means I agree with Rat that the D of Schwartz was better. And I am slightly concerned about switching back (if that is true). But the difference is not as big as conventional stats say.

[stuckincincy]

With all of the attention paid to the offensive this off-season so far, I'm leaning toward a defensive-heavy draft myself.
Probably so. They went all-in last draft with OLs - we will see how that works out this year. I could see a CB. They say it's not a good year for safety talent, and they lost Searcy who got signed elsewhere to a decent contract.

[tomz]

While I can't disagree with the notion that last year's D was much better vs. the run, I think the analyses of YR and Topas miss some very important points. Most importantly, the personnel was not the same in important regards. First, the development of Dareus was massive between '13 and '14 and that affected all on the line. The ability to generate pressure with a front four (and Rex DOES employ something that looks like a front four, even when it's called a 3-4) makes a huge difference since blitzing is less essential. Second, the LB play overall was much better, with Bradham emerging, Spikes and Brown. The FO seems to think (like many on the board, I believe) that Brown is a more than adequate replacement for Spikes. Our secondary also improved their play dramatically last year. Wasn't '13 the year that we started the year with a pathetic and depleted secondary? That translates directly to 3rd down efficiency. Also, many of the young guys there were also maturing, especially Searcy and Duke. Remember also that Williams was just transitioning to free safety (and he was needed as CB in the early, depleted stage). He now showed that he can play S at a high level and has a year under his belt. With various adds after '13 (Graham, maybe Rambo), we have excellent depth now. Finally, I think the scheme difference is overrated. With a high overall talent level, I am pretty confident that this coaching staff will make it work, as they did in NY. In short I see plenty of reason to be pretty optimistic, if not bullish.

[YardRat]

Good points, but IMO...

Dareus is better suited for tackle on a four man front than end in a three man, but he is good at both, and the only player in the front seven with that kind of versatility.
Rex will blitz, Schwartz didn't have to, and with Hughes re-signing wouldn't have had to this season either.
Brown, Spikes and Bradham were an excellent compliment to the front four...I'm not that concerned about B & B on the inside, put putting Mario and Hughes back on the outside and giving them more responsibilities is a concern. Those two should be setting the edge, then going after the ball, period. Under Rex, they are going to be expected to read more, and cover more.
I agree on the secondary, along with Dareus not really concerned there.

The beauty of Schwart's defense was how simple it was...Rex's will be more complicated...more complicated means more opportunity for error.

[swiper]

Ryan does not have ideal personnel for his defense here. Primarily he doesn't have the proper CBs. Not many teams do. Not one of you expected Schwartz to get as much out of the defense as he did. In fact, many of you didn't like the Vills having signed him at the start. To listen to Ryan tell everyone he will improve is just laughable. He made the same bloviated claims every week in in Jets press conferences. He is a huge bag of wind. If he kept the defense to the level it was in 2014 would be a feat in itself - primarily because switching back to the other base scheme and not having proper personnel. The fact is the defense will likely take a step back. At least somewhat.

[better days]

Highly doubt we see Spikes back.

Whaley has done a great job of locating starting LB'S in the draft, they'll get a thumper for depth and ST's.

Same goes for Rex and DL. They'll get a DL or two in the draft to come in and be plug and play.

Do not be surprised to see this draft go heavy o the defensive side.

I'd say we're a lock to go DL, LB and S in the draft. Don't be surprised to see a CB either. Robey is going to be the odd man out when his contract is up because he'll get some good change to be a slot CB. That's not going to be here with Gilmore getting paid, as well as Leodis is making decent change as is Graham for a depth player.

Only way I see an offensive player being picked early is if someone drastically slips or they really loves someone like Maxx Williams.

I'm guessing DL at pick 50.

Whaley said they are going to draft the best player available at the spot they draft.

I would not be surprised if it is offense or defense.

[YardRat]

I would not be surprised if it is offense or defense.

Way to go out a limb.

I used to have a friend years ago that I watched football with, and he had a habit of saying on 1st and 10 "Well, they are either going to run or pass."

[swiper]

Schwartz should be the head coach. He's better than Ryan.

[better days]

Way to go out a limb.

I used to have a friend years ago that I watched football with, and he had a habit of saying on 1st and 10 "Well, they are either going to run or pass."

I don't have a clue this year which way the Bills will go in the draft.

The biggest holes have been filled & I really think Whaley will draft the best player available.

Could be a safety or a guard, who knows?

[swiper]

Yep. Could go anywhere.

Would you all be upset if they drafted a CB?

I know we all complain/joke about it with the Bills. But this year it wouldn't be a terrible idea.

[YardRat]

I would be upset if we drafted a CB with our first pick.

[better days]

I would be upset if we drafted a CB with our first pick.

What position would you like to see it used on?

[swiper]

I would be upset if we drafted a CB with our first pick.


Based on other positional needs?

It could be argued that they have plugged the other holes at QB, TE, and G. And that Ryan wants to have a young man-to-man guy back there.

[YardRat]

What position would you like to see it used on?


Based on other positional needs?

It could be argued that they have plugged the other holes at QB, TE, and G. And that Ryan wants to have a young man-to-man guy back there.

I'd like to see us go big. C/G, OT, NT or DE. We need linemen kind of badly.

[YardRat]

Can't believe I didn't finish this earlier in the off season. Here's the update with the final stats from the 2015 season. Schwartz--(Pettine)--Wrecks. GREEN is better than Schwartz (notice there are none)...BLUE is better than Pettine (only three)...RED is worse than both (seven of eleven categories).

Points per game--4--(20)--15
Yards per game--4--(10)--19
Yards per point--3--(6)--9
1st downs allowed per game--5--(12)--20
3rd down % allowed--1--(14)--23
Fumbles recovered--10--(25)--22
Rush yards per game--11--(28)--16
Passing yards per game--3--(4)--19
Sacks--1--(2)--31
Interceptions--6--(2)--6
QB rating--2--(3)--10

[Mace]

Can't believe I didn't finish this earlier in the off season. Here's the update with the final stats from the 2015 season. Schwartz--(Pettine)--Wrecks. GREEN is better than Schwartz (notice there are none)...BLUE is better than Pettine (only three)...RED is worse than both (seven of eleven categories).

Points per game--4--(20)--15
Yards per game--4--(10)--19
Yards per point--3--(6)--9
1st downs allowed per game--5--(12)--20
3rd down % allowed--1--(14)--23
Fumbles recovered--10--(25)--22
Rush yards per game--11--(28)--16
Passing yards per game--3--(4)--19
Sacks--1--(2)--31
Interceptions--6--(2)--6
QB rating--2--(3)--10

Rex only needs time and patience and a bunch of new players to match Pettine and them more time and patience and players to achieve Schwartz.

[bleve]

Players get better too. I think coaching is somewhat overrated. Proper execution is not as valued enough by fans, and psychologically it is easier to blame 1 guy for making a bad/good plan than a bunch of guys for not executing/executing it properly.

Agreed, but when Wrecks got here, he stated that this was the most talented group of players he's ever had to work with. So there's that...

[Mace]

Agreed, but when Wrecks got here, he stated that this was the most talented group of players he's ever had to work with. So there's that...

He yaps.

[Oaf]

Great OP.

[Victor7]

The sacks man

I mean .... from league leading to franchise all time low.

The 3rd down efficiency is miserable as well

Only the Bills can look at this and keep the guy responsible. Any other job in the world that shows that kind of decline in performance and you are on the street without a job.

[YardRat]

Update for 2016, Wrecks' last season in black at the end, (compared to last year). Schwartz--(Pettine)--Wrecks. GREEN is better than Schwartz (notice there are none)...BLUE is better than Pettine (only three)...RED is worse than both (seven of eleven categories).

Points per game--4--(20)--15 --17th(worse)
Yards per game--4--(10)--19---18th (better)
Yards per point--3--(6)--9---11th (worse)
1st downs allowed per game--5--(12)--20---23rd (worse)
3rd down % allowed--1--(14)--23---20th (better)
Fumbles recovered--10--(25)--22---24th (worse)
Rush yards per game--11--(28)--16---29th (worse)
Passing yards per game--3--(4)--19---6th (better)
Sacks--1--(2)--31--8th (better)
Interceptions--6--(2)--6--18th (worse)
QB rating--2--(3)--10---12th (worse)

Atta boy, Wrecks. Good thing 'all in' on your 'genius' led to an even worse performance (for the most part) by the defense in year 2. Worse in 7 categories, basically the same (but I did mark them as 'better') in 2 others, and actually better in 2.

Good riddance.

[kscdogbillsfan1221]

Update for 2016, Wrecks' last season in black at the end, (compared to last year). Schwartz--(Pettine)--Wrecks. GREEN is better than Schwartz (notice there are none)...BLUE is better than Pettine (only three)...RED is worse than both (seven of eleven categories).

Points per game--4--(20)--15 --17th(worse)
Yards per game--4--(10)--19---18th (better)
Yards per point--3--(6)--9---11th (worse)
1st downs allowed per game--5--(12)--20---23rd (worse)
3rd down % allowed--1--(14)--23---20th (better)
Fumbles recovered--10--(25)--22---24th (worse)
Rush yards per game--11--(28)--16---29th (worse)
Passing yards per game--3--(4)--19---6th (better)
Sacks--1--(2)--31--8th (better)
Interceptions--6--(2)--6--18th (worse)
QB rating--2--(3)--10---12th (worse)

Atta boy, Wrecks. Good thing 'all in' on your 'genius' led to an even worse performance (for the most part) by the defense in year 2. Worse in 7 categories, basically the same (but I did mark them as 'better') in 2 others, and actually better in 2.

Good riddance.

excellent post.

slamming indictment of the abject failure of his defense.