Tank question

[Topas]

Quick question about tanking.

Coming in last means only a 20% chance of picking first, correct?
Because from reading that board it sounds like we need to finish last to get McDavid. But this is no sure thing. Imagine if we finish last and Arizona wins the lottery. That would suck.
Or am I wrong about the probability?

Of course I agree, a 20% chance is better than a 15% chance. But it is no sure thing. Still only 1 out of 5.

[Skooby]

All your odds are correct. We must finish last or risk falling out of the top 2 & there's an 80% chance we won't get the top pick, that's the only way to look at it.

[chernobylwraiths]

Finishing last means an 80% chance of getting Eichel.

The only reason this whole race has any significance is because it seems as if there are TWO generational talents in the draft. Otherwise, neither side would be very vocal.

[rbochan]

Eichel and McDavid are going to Toronto, so it doesn't even matter.

[JATMtheJATM]

Both? Impressive

[OpIv37]

Btw even if we finish last, our chance of getting McDavid is 0% because the NHL is going to rig the lottery.

They will use McDavid to save some fledgling team like Carolina or Arizona, or send him to Toronto to re-energize the league's largest fan base.

[SpikedLemonade]

Btw even if we finish last, our chance of getting McDavid is 0% because the NHL is going to rig the lottery.

They will use McDavid to save some fledgling team like Carolina or Arizona, or send him to Toronto to re-energize the league's largest fan base.

Or to punish the only team that planned a 2 year tank.

[mightysimi]

Btw even if we finish last, our chance of getting McDavid is 0% because the NHL is going to rig the lottery.

They will use McDavid to save some fledgling team like Carolina or Arizona, or send him to Toronto to re-energize the league's largest fan base.

Cold envelope?

[IlluminatusUIUC]

The NHL uses a ping pong ball lottery, right? How do you rig that?

[OpIv37]

The NHL uses a ping pong ball lottery, right? How do you rig that?

Who knows? I watched the lottery show last year and they had counted down from the lowest pick to the highest pick by removing numbered cards with the team logo behind it. Translation: the actual lottery was done OFF the air, away from the prying eyes of the general public. So, they could have done it legit or Bettman could have made it up. We have no idea.

[SpikedLemonade]

The NHL uses a ping pong ball lottery, right? How do you rig that?

You can't.

Same low self-esteem Buffalo sports fan paranoia.

[GreedoII]

Finishing last means an 100% chance of getting Eichel if they want him

[chernobylwraiths]

The NHL uses a ping pong ball lottery, right? How do you rig that?

I heard on WGR that they DON'T use a ping pong ball lottery. I heard it was some computer program that has "randomness" built into it.

They will probably use this:

http://nhllotterysimulator.com/

[chernobylwraiths]

Finishing last means an 100% chance of getting Eichel if they want him

not necessarily

What if by chance Boston doesn't make the playoffs and wins the lottery? Do they take McDavid and not the hometown hero?

[IlluminatusUIUC]

I heard on WGR that they DON'T use a ping pong ball lottery. I heard it was some computer program that has "randomness" built into it.

They will probably use this:

http://nhllotterysimulator.com/

This article is a few years old, but it claims they did then: http://www.hockeywilderness.com/2012/3/26/2902660/the-nhl-draft-lottery-and-you-how-does-the-lottery-work


Think "Powerball." A bunch of ping pong balls go in a big hopper, they spin it, and one is selected as the winner.

If they are in fact using a PC simulation then that is saddening.

[chernobylwraiths]

however they do it, they do it in secret

[OpIv37]

You can't.

Same low self-esteem Buffalo sports fan paranoia.
Well we have an organization with a vested interest in a certain outcome using a secretive process to produce a "random" result that frequently results in low probability outcomes that so happen to align closely with those vested interests.

Is that smoking gun proof that they rig it? Of course not, but it's certainly unusual enough that questioning it isn't paranoia.

[Topas]

Why is there a 100% chance to get the second pick if we finish last? Is only the first pick randomly chosen or are all teams in the lottery randomly chosen?
Because then we could finish 8th or something like that, right?
Or is only the first pick randomly and the the worst remaining team picks next?

[Ginger Vitis]

Why is there a 100% chance to get the second pick if we finish last? Is only the first pick randomly chosen or are all teams in the lottery randomly chosen?
Because then we could finish 8th or something like that, right?
Or is only the first pick randomly and the the worst remaining team picks next?

The NHL has established that the 30th place team has a 20% chance of getting the 1st overall pick and if they don't get it they automatically get the 2nd overall pick

[Skooby]

Why is there a 100% chance to get the second pick if we finish last? Is only the first pick randomly chosen or are all teams in the lottery randomly chosen?
Because then we could finish 8th or something like that, right?
Or is only the first pick randomly and the the worst remaining team picks next?

If you finish 30th & don't hit the draft lottery #1, the worst case scenario is you lose one spot (29th) which is the second pick in the draft. You can't lose more than one position.

[chernobylwraiths]

Why is there a 100% chance to get the second pick if we finish last? Is only the first pick randomly chosen or are all teams in the lottery randomly chosen?
Because then we could finish 8th or something like that, right?
Or is only the first pick randomly and the the worst remaining team picks next?

If they finish 30th, they have a 100% chance of picking in the top two for this year only. Next year, worst team could drop to 3rd. But this year last place gets first or second. So, they don't actually have a 100% chance of picking second, only 80% and 20% of picking first. Many Buffalo people are defeatest, sometimes known as realist, and feel we would never win the lottery for the first pick.

[Skooby]

If they finish 30th, they have a 100% chance of picking in the top two for this year only. Next year, worst team could drop to 3rd. But this year last place gets first or second. So, they don't actually have a 100% chance of picking second, only 80% and 20% of picking first. Many Buffalo people are defeatest, sometimes known as realist, and feel we would never win the lottery for the first pick.

We're picking second if we finish last, so some other team can be saved. Our arena is filled almost every game and regardless of any local TV contracts that matters to most NHL owners.

[ckg927]

Eichel and McDavid are going to Toronto, so it doesn't even matter.

They will get NEITHER....UND THEY VILL LUFF IT!

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If they finish 30th, they have a 100% chance of picking in the top two for this year only. Next year, worst team could drop to 3rd. But this year last place gets first or second. So, they don't actually have a 100% chance of picking second, only 80% and 20% of picking first. Many Buffalo people are defeatest, sometimes known as realist, and feel we would never win the lottery for the first pick.

1970 and 1987 would tend to disagree with you.

[The Jokeman]

They will get NEITHER....UND THEY VILL LUFF IT!

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1970 and 1987 would tend to disagree with you.
1987 wasn't a lottery system.

[GreedoII]

not necessarily

What if by chance Boston doesn't make the playoffs and wins the lottery? Do they take McDavid and not the hometown hero?

Well I hope they are stupid enuff to do that..lol

[Typ0]

It makes no sense that the draft is done behind closed doors other than it's rigged.

[Skooby]

It makes no sense that the draft is done behind closed doors other than it's rigged.

You would think they'd want Buffalo to become a premier team of the league, remember the playoffs and the crowds outside of the Arena ?? It was fandemonium !!

[Downinfloflo]

You would think they'd want Buffalo to become a premier team of the league, remember the playoffs and the crowds outside of the Arena ?? It was fandemonium !!

Happens everywhere....

[JATMtheJATM]

You would think they'd want Buffalo to become a premier team of the league, remember the playoffs and the crowds outside of the Arena ?? It was fandemonium !!

yup. in fact, the NHL allegedly attempted to buy the "hockeytown" trademark from the illitch's (detroit) to award to buffalo. its calmed down since then, but TV ratings for NHL and hockey in general are always top 3 in buffalo. including games that dont involve the sabres. buffalo fans just love their hockey.

i think USA today it was that named buffalo the "hub" of the NHL.

i dont buy conspiracies, but this could be one. The NHL obviously benefit from having a good BUFFALO team. its entirely possible that IF the draft is rigged, IF, that the sabres lost last years lottery, and the NHL will have the sabres win this years. maybe they think it would look bad to have the sabres win two in a row?

just some food for thought, i dont buy the draft is rigged stuff.

[Dr. Who]

I'm not clever about links, so I just copy pasted the following. It's from a NY Times article from June 8, 2014.


The hockey fans of Buffalo are proving that their passion for the sport does not wane, even when the Sabres have a miserable points percentage — the worst in their history.

The enthusiasm of Buffalonians is local, national and yearlong.

Buffalo was the highest-rated market in the regular season for NBC and NBCSN’s national games and, with Sabres games, generated the second-highest local cable rating in the N.H.L. (Pittsburgh had the highest.)

“Hockey’s in the area’s blood, like chicken wings,” said Alan Pergament, a television critic for The Buffalo News.

Ken Martin, the N.H.L.’s vice president for community relations and a Buffalo native, has observed the city’s vibrant hockey culture.

“Buffalo is the closest you can come, in a U.S. city, to having natural Canadian roots,” Martin said. “To every kid in Buffalo, hockey is their sport of choice. It’s the one sport that takes place 365 days a year, with kids training on and off ice.”

Buffalo’s interest in hockey has spurred USA Hockey to hold numerous tournaments there and prompted the Sabres’ owner, Terry Pegula, to build the soon-to-open HarborCenter, with two rinks and a teaching academy.

“If you gave a hockey I.Q. test to the Buffalo market, you’d have the highest percentage of Mensas,” said Ted Black, the president of the Sabres. “Hockey touches everyone here in some way.”

Hockey fans in Buffalo also retain affection for players who were born in, or grew up in, the area — like Patrick Kane of the Chicago Blackhawks and Brooks Orpik of the Pittsburgh Penguins — and for former Sabres, like Dominic Moore of the Rangers and Robyn Regehr of the Los Angeles Kings. Since 2005, the Sabres have staged a high school all-star tournament named after Scotty Bowman, who coached the team and four others and lives in nearby Amherst.

“My son is 5,” said Rob Ray, a former Sabre who is the team’s television analyst on MSG Network. “He can name every player, every team, everything about them. These kids are so into hockey.”

The Sabres, with 52 points in the regular season, were nowhere near making the playoffs. But in Rounds 2 and 3 and Game 1 of the Stanley Cup finals on NBC and NBCSN, Buffalo had a 3.1 local rating, which ranked sixth, ahead of markets with playoff teams like New York, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Denver, Detroit and Los Angeles.

For Game 1 of the finals, Buffalo’s 8.5 rating ranked second; for Game 2, Buffalo ranked third, with an 8.1 rating. (That game generated a 10.5 rating in the New York market, the highest in history for an N.H.L. game on NBC or NBCSN.) And for Game 7 of the Western Conference finals, between the Kings and the Blackhawks, Buffalo had a 7.3 rating, second to Chicago’s.

Buffalo is the 52nd-largest market in the United States, which means that a substantial rating does not mean a lot of people are watching. For Game 1 of the finals, for instance, Buffalo’s 8.5 rating equaled about 54,000 households; the game’s 10.1 rating in New York was the equivalent of 746,000 households.

Still, the narrow gap between the ratings figures — one for a market whose team is still playing and one whose team is not — underscores Buffalo’s love of hockey.

Ray, the television analyst, said the fans watching the finals from Buffalo were not passionately cheering for the Kings or the Rangers, even if Manhattan is a lot closer than Los Angeles.

“They love the sport, and they’re watching because it’s entertainment,” he said. “They love having a villain, so if it was the Bruins playing, they’d be rooting for whoever’s against them. And they’d love to see Toronto lose. But this is a lifestyle.”

Email: sandor@nytimes.com


This doesn't happen just everywhere.
I haven't lived in Buffalo since I was ten years old.
I am now fifty, live in Georgia, and I am still a passionate Sabres fan and love hockey.

[Downinfloflo]

Hot dam......Way to go boys!!!



The Sabres have scored 1.77 goals per game, the fourth-lowest average since the NHL legalized the forward pass in 1929. They scored 10 goals through their first 10 games, the lowest such output since 1936.

[Downinfloflo]

I'm not clever about links, so I just copy pasted the following. It's from a NY Times article from June 8, 2014.


The hockey fans of Buffalo are proving that their passion for the sport does not wane, even when the Sabres have a miserable points percentage — the worst in their history.

The enthusiasm of Buffalonians is local, national and yearlong.

Buffalo was the highest-rated market in the regular season for NBC and NBCSN’s national games and, with Sabres games, generated the second-highest local cable rating in the N.H.L. (Pittsburgh had the highest.)

“Hockey’s in the area’s blood, like chicken wings,” said Alan Pergament, a television critic for The Buffalo News.

Ken Martin, the N.H.L.’s vice president for community relations and a Buffalo native, has observed the city’s vibrant hockey culture.

“Buffalo is the closest you can come, in a U.S. city, to having natural Canadian roots,” Martin said. “To every kid in Buffalo, hockey is their sport of choice. It’s the one sport that takes place 365 days a year, with kids training on and off ice.”

Buffalo’s interest in hockey has spurred USA Hockey to hold numerous tournaments there and prompted the Sabres’ owner, Terry Pegula, to build the soon-to-open HarborCenter, with two rinks and a teaching academy.

“If you gave a hockey I.Q. test to the Buffalo market, you’d have the highest percentage of Mensas,” said Ted Black, the president of the Sabres. “Hockey touches everyone here in some way.”

Hockey fans in Buffalo also retain affection for players who were born in, or grew up in, the area — like Patrick Kane of the Chicago Blackhawks and Brooks Orpik of the Pittsburgh Penguins — and for former Sabres, like Dominic Moore of the Rangers and Robyn Regehr of the Los Angeles Kings. Since 2005, the Sabres have staged a high school all-star tournament named after Scotty Bowman, who coached the team and four others and lives in nearby Amherst.

“My son is 5,” said Rob Ray, a former Sabre who is the team’s television analyst on MSG Network. “He can name every player, every team, everything about them. These kids are so into hockey.”

The Sabres, with 52 points in the regular season, were nowhere near making the playoffs. But in Rounds 2 and 3 and Game 1 of the Stanley Cup finals on NBC and NBCSN, Buffalo had a 3.1 local rating, which ranked sixth, ahead of markets with playoff teams like New York, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Denver, Detroit and Los Angeles.

For Game 1 of the finals, Buffalo’s 8.5 rating ranked second; for Game 2, Buffalo ranked third, with an 8.1 rating. (That game generated a 10.5 rating in the New York market, the highest in history for an N.H.L. game on NBC or NBCSN.) And for Game 7 of the Western Conference finals, between the Kings and the Blackhawks, Buffalo had a 7.3 rating, second to Chicago’s.

Buffalo is the 52nd-largest market in the United States, which means that a substantial rating does not mean a lot of people are watching. For Game 1 of the finals, for instance, Buffalo’s 8.5 rating equaled about 54,000 households; the game’s 10.1 rating in New York was the equivalent of 746,000 households.

Still, the narrow gap between the ratings figures — one for a market whose team is still playing and one whose team is not — underscores Buffalo’s love of hockey.

Ray, the television analyst, said the fans watching the finals from Buffalo were not passionately cheering for the Kings or the Rangers, even if Manhattan is a lot closer than Los Angeles.

“They love the sport, and they’re watching because it’s entertainment,” he said. “They love having a villain, so if it was the Bruins playing, they’d be rooting for whoever’s against them. And they’d love to see Toronto lose. But this is a lifestyle.”

Email: sandor@nytimes.com


This doesn't happen just everywhere.
I haven't lived in Buffalo since I was ten years old.
I am now fifty, live in Georgia, and I am still a passionate Sabres fan and love hockey.

You know what this means, Buffalonians like to sit home and watch TV...

[Skooby]

You know what this means, Buffalonians like to sit home and watch TV...

A friend of mine just got to see his neighbor after several months, so what else is there to do.

[Downinfloflo]

A friend of mine just got to see his neighbor after several months, so what else is there to do.

That's what I'm saying, There is nothing else, It's like bragging that Floridians go to the beach more than New Yorkers..

[Typ0]

I don't buy the draft is rigged stuff either...or conspiracy theories in general. However, sometimes they do turn out true. I tend to be a positive team oriented thinker. There just is no reason the NHL would maintain any illusion about the draft other than they want some form of control over it.


yup. in fact, the NHL allegedly attempted to buy the "hockeytown" trademark from the illitch's (detroit) to award to buffalo. its calmed down since then, but TV ratings for NHL and hockey in general are always top 3 in buffalo. including games that dont involve the sabres. buffalo fans just love their hockey.

i think USA today it was that named buffalo the "hub" of the NHL.

i dont buy conspiracies, but this could be one. The NHL obviously benefit from having a good BUFFALO team. its entirely possible that IF the draft is rigged, IF, that the sabres lost last years lottery, and the NHL will have the sabres win this years. maybe they think it would look bad to have the sabres win two in a row?

just some food for thought, i dont buy the draft is rigged stuff.

[mightysimi]

It makes no sense that the draft is done behind closed doors other than it's rigged.

There is only one ping pong ball picked. How would you build up the suspense for TV if everyone saw the ball come out and knew right away who was first pick? You know there has to be a countdown to 1. TSN will have an hour special on that. How can you do it with knowing who is first right away?