Tank question

[Topas]

Quick question about tanking.

Coming in last means only a 20% chance of picking first, correct?
Because from reading that board it sounds like we need to finish last to get McDavid. But this is no sure thing. Imagine if we finish last and Arizona wins the lottery. That would suck.
Or am I wrong about the probability?

Of course I agree, a 20% chance is better than a 15% chance. But it is no sure thing. Still only 1 out of 5.

[Skooby]

Re: Tank question

All your odds are correct. We must finish last or risk falling out of the top 2 & there's an 80% chance we won't get the top pick, that's the only way to look at it.

[chernobylwraiths]

Re: Tank question

Finishing last means an 80% chance of getting Eichel.

The only reason this whole race has any significance is because it seems as if there are TWO generational talents in the draft. Otherwise, neither side would be very vocal.

[rbochan]

Re: Tank question

Eichel and McDavid are going to Toronto, so it doesn't even matter.

[JATMtheJATM]

Re: Tank question

Both? Impressive

[OpIv37]

Re: Tank question

Btw even if we finish last, our chance of getting McDavid is 0% because the NHL is going to rig the lottery.

They will use McDavid to save some fledgling team like Carolina or Arizona, or send him to Toronto to re-energize the league's largest fan base.

[Guest]

Re: Tank question

Btw even if we finish last, our chance of getting McDavid is 0% because the NHL is going to rig the lottery.

They will use McDavid to save some fledgling team like Carolina or Arizona, or send him to Toronto to re-energize the league's largest fan base.

Or to punish the only team that planned a 2 year tank.

[mightysimi]

Re: Tank question

Btw even if we finish last, our chance of getting McDavid is 0% because the NHL is going to rig the lottery.

They will use McDavid to save some fledgling team like Carolina or Arizona, or send him to Toronto to re-energize the league's largest fan base.

Cold envelope?

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Re: Tank question

The NHL uses a ping pong ball lottery, right? How do you rig that?

[OpIv37]

Re: Tank question

The NHL uses a ping pong ball lottery, right? How do you rig that?

Who knows? I watched the lottery show last year and they had counted down from the lowest pick to the highest pick by removing numbered cards with the team logo behind it. Translation: the actual lottery was done OFF the air, away from the prying eyes of the general public. So, they could have done it legit or Bettman could have made it up. We have no idea.

[Guest]

Re: Tank question

The NHL uses a ping pong ball lottery, right? How do you rig that?

You can't.

Same low self-esteem Buffalo sports fan paranoia.

[GreedoII]

Re: Tank question

Finishing last means an 100% chance of getting Eichel if they want him

[chernobylwraiths]

Re: Tank question

The NHL uses a ping pong ball lottery, right? How do you rig that?

I heard on WGR that they DON'T use a ping pong ball lottery. I heard it was some computer program that has "randomness" built into it.

They will probably use this:

http://nhllotterysimulator.com/

[chernobylwraiths]

Re: Tank question

Finishing last means an 100% chance of getting Eichel if they want him

not necessarily

What if by chance Boston doesn't make the playoffs and wins the lottery? Do they take McDavid and not the hometown hero?

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Re: Tank question

I heard on WGR that they DON'T use a ping pong ball lottery. I heard it was some computer program that has "randomness" built into it.

They will probably use this:

http://nhllotterysimulator.com/

This article is a few years old, but it claims they did then: http://www.hockeywilderness.com/2012...e-lottery-work

Think "Powerball." A bunch of ping pong balls go in a big hopper, they spin it, and one is selected as the winner.

If they are in fact using a PC simulation then that is saddening.