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I read this study by Matt Richner (who interned or worked for the Seahawks) about NFL QBs and how they performed in college. It attempts to set some benchmarks to look for in college QB that might be indicative of success in the NFL. I found it sort of interesting. This is what is says to look in college for an elite NFL QB:
Breakdown: These players were chosen from our list of 164 as the top level NFL QB’s who have been selected in the NFL
draft since 2000. Each of these players have or had shown a consistent level of play as a starting QB in the NFL for long
period of time. These players averaged roughly 24 wins while in college. Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers and recent Super
Bowl MVP Joe Flacco had less than 20 wins while in college. Most of these players had over 3 seasons as a starting QB in
college, which means they averaged roughly 9 wins a season. These players averaged 67 TD’s pass in college down from
previous years average of 69. A solid baseline of 40 TD’s pass thrown should be achieved before any QB is considered for
the NFL draft. A solid ratio of TD/INT Ratio of 2.0 should be achieved for any first round draft selection. Players that have
less than a 2.0 Ratio have shown to be inconsistent starters in the NFL. Finally, 4 of the 15 players in this list had a
completion percentage of 60% or less. Of these 4 players 2 of them (Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer) were 4 year starters
while in college. Each showed a continue ability to get better each season and were only a single percentage point away
from achieving the benchmark of 60%. On average the quarterbacks in this tier raised their career completion .76% from
college to the NFL. Tom Landry once said you can’t teach accuracy, and a .76% proof that he is correct.
It seems reasonable. He also has benchmarks for other tiers of QBs. Unfortunately, using it indicates that EJ doesn't look like such a great pick. Here's the website:
Breakdown: These players were chosen from our list of 164 as the top level NFL QB’s who have been selected in the NFL
draft since 2000. Each of these players have or had shown a consistent level of play as a starting QB in the NFL for long
period of time. These players averaged roughly 24 wins while in college. Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers and recent Super
Bowl MVP Joe Flacco had less than 20 wins while in college. Most of these players had over 3 seasons as a starting QB in
college, which means they averaged roughly 9 wins a season. These players averaged 67 TD’s pass in college down from
previous years average of 69. A solid baseline of 40 TD’s pass thrown should be achieved before any QB is considered for
the NFL draft. A solid ratio of TD/INT Ratio of 2.0 should be achieved for any first round draft selection. Players that have
less than a 2.0 Ratio have shown to be inconsistent starters in the NFL. Finally, 4 of the 15 players in this list had a
completion percentage of 60% or less. Of these 4 players 2 of them (Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer) were 4 year starters
while in college. Each showed a continue ability to get better each season and were only a single percentage point away
from achieving the benchmark of 60%. On average the quarterbacks in this tier raised their career completion .76% from
college to the NFL. Tom Landry once said you can’t teach accuracy, and a .76% proof that he is correct.
It seems reasonable. He also has benchmarks for other tiers of QBs. Unfortunately, using it indicates that EJ doesn't look like such a great pick. Here's the website:
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