QB Bryce Petty on the Bills radar. Do they pick him at #50?

[blackonyx89]

What do you think? He's 24 and is a project like EJ. If EJ can't beat him out at camp if they select him, then it's possibly back to square one with an "older" QB learning the ropes. Takes? http://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2015/04/2015_nfl_draft_buffalo_bills_doug_whaley_bryce_petty.html.

[emoulds80]

not really ideal imo. i dont think ej will make it, but he needs another shot this year. thats part of the risk of drafting a qb high, you actually have to find out if the guy can play, they brought in taylor for a reason with his contract.

[Jry44]

Do not believe jack **** of what you're reading right now regarding team interests. I think the Bills are going BPA since this draft is so damn weak.

It sucks because it is the off season, but the best thing to do is to ignore reading mock drafts, and do not buy in to any rumors that you're hearing right now because mock drafts are a guess for entertainment purposes, and rumors are smokescreens. Just relax until the draft begins on Thursday, and sit back and enjoy....

[Buckets]

not really ideal imo. i dont think ej will make it, but he needs another shot this year. thats part of the risk of drafting a qb high, you actually have to find out if the guy can play, they brought in taylor for a reason with his contract.

FL State fans and alumni said this for three years, nothing ever got better.

[kingJofNYC]

Well seeing as how they picked a scrub like EJ in the first, drafting an equally poor QB in the 2nd isn't that far of a stretch.

Bills do stupid ****, so expect something stupid.

[MillsapsBillsFan]

FL State fans and alumni said this for three years, nothing ever got better.

I'm a FSU fan and I was not really happy when they took EJ originally, He was never a great QB at FSU and I didnt really think he would suddenly grow into one. He has all the physical tools and I hope this is the year he proves me wrong but I dont have high hopes

Getting Back on topic I really like Bryce Petty, but hes going to require some real break in time for an NFL offense. We have a team that wants to win now so im not sure how much he would even be able to contribute early. That being said I would love to take him if we move back some or if for some reason hes still there in the third round (I dont see that happening) I think O-Line is a bigger need with that 50 pick. If Bryce Petty is the BPA at 50 take him, if you have a third round grade or if you think theres better players on the board you pass.

[X-Era]

The Bills are typically fairly transparent. So, it wouldn't surprise me if the smoke is real.

I like the thought of drafting him. Even at 50. But more so at 81. Mayock has hiom as the 3rd best and Whaley has stated that he thinks the next tier isn't too far down from Winston and Mariota

[Yasgur's Farm]

I actually think they've stopped being transparent since the Dareus pick in '11.. Especially when we consider the EJ and Sammy selections.

[Night Train]

I'd be pissed. He is not that good. OL, S, LB.

[swiper]

I actually think they've stopped being transparent since the Dareus pick in '11.. Especially when we consider the EJ and Sammy selections.

Yep. Playing the same games other GMs play.

[emoulds80]

IMO, its going to be carl davis or aj cann,

aj cann if both are available

- - - Updated - - -

i seen the tape, i consider aj cann on of the top propects of all positions. kinda suprised hes not being talked about going earlier

[Mace]

Due diligence. They've either done pro days, combine chats or had visits with QB's : Bennett, Bridge, Boone, Carden, Fajardo, Halliday, Hundley, Lovelocke, Mannion, Grayson, Sims and now Petty.

http://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2015/04/2015_nfl_draft_updated_buffalo_bills_prospect_visit_and_interest_tracker.html

[The Jokeman]

The Bills are typically fairly transparent. So, it wouldn't surprise me if the smoke is real.

I like the thought of drafting him. Even at 50. But more so at 81. Mayock has hiom as the 3rd best and Whaley has stated that he thinks the next tier isn't too far down from Winston and Mariota

How can you be transparent at pick 50?

[Don't Panic]

I'd like to think there are some commonly held odds of succeeding by round amongst head men in the NFL when it comes to drafting QBs. I have no idea what they really are, but a half-educated guess would put them at about...
1st: 60-100%
2nd: 30-60%
3rd: 20-30%
4th and beyond: <20%
Meaning, if you think a guy has about a 25% chance of making it, you wait until the 3rd round. 45% chance? Take him in the 2nd. I don't think these are dead on, but they're probably ballpark.

So all that said, what do you think the odds are Petty is successful?

[Mace]

I'd like to think there are some commonly held odds of succeeding by round amongst head men in the NFL when it comes to drafting QBs. I have no idea what they really are, but a half-educated guess would put them at about...
1st: 60-100%
2nd: 30-60%
3rd: 20-30%
4th and beyond: <20%
Meaning, if you think a guy has about a 25% chance of making it, you wait until the 3rd round. 45% chance? Take him in the 2nd. I don't think these are dead on, but they're probably ballpark.

So all that said, what do you think the odds are Petty is successful?

Well, atm, Ryan's QB drafting success rate is probably beneath the standard odds you mention which probably look near close to accurate to me, but if you look at Brady (6/199 <20% chance) and roll through the NFL draft selections (Pennington 1/18), Giovanni Carmazzi (3/65), Chris Redman (3/75), Tee Martin (5/163), Marc Bulger (6/168), and Spergon Wynn (6/183) at qb before Brady, it might be the odds are irrelevant to team/match which need new sets of odds. Petty has a better chance of being successful depending who picks him, like you can't picture Brady doing so well on the Spergon Wynn career path in Cleveland.

Here ? Well. Ryan teams have drafted Tajh Boyd (2014), Geno Smith (2013), Greg McElroy (2011), Mark Sanchez (2009), with 6/2/7/1 odds that were all pretty much needing a new set of odds I sure can't comprehend for futile, despite the previous probable futile odds. But if you waited until round 3 for Sanchez if he was available, or grabbed, McElroy in round 2, or Tajh Boyd in round 4, none of it would have helped Ryan or those QB's any.

[X-Era]

I actually think they've stopped being transparent since the Dareus pick in '11.. Especially when we consider the EJ and Sammy selections.
Manuel's name was talked about days before the draft by BB.com even when many thought as many as 3 or 4 QB would be drafted before him. Watkins was a surprise but in all fairness it was a huge trade up which no one, even the Bills, knew they could pull off before draft day.

[X-Era]

How can you be transparent at pick 50?Transparent in who you are after. Who you like a lot. The Bills know the tier or range of players that are likely to be there at 50.

[Night Train]

After reading Ryans comments yesterday after Day 1 of Vet mini-camp, he likes what he saw of Cassel & Taylor plus holds some hope for Manuel.

I'd rather draft someone who could help the team this year, rather than a long term project that will be inactive on game day.

[X-Era]

I'd like to think there are some commonly held odds of succeeding by round amongst head men in the NFL when it comes to drafting QBs. I have no idea what they really are, but a half-educated guess would put them at about...
1st: 60-100%
2nd: 30-60%
3rd: 20-30%
4th and beyond: <20%
Meaning, if you think a guy has about a 25% chance of making it, you wait until the 3rd round. 45% chance? Take him in the 2nd. I don't think these are dead on, but they're probably ballpark.

So all that said, what do you think the odds are Petty is successful?
I think your percentages are high across the board. The round 1 percent is probably more like 25-40. And it only goes down from there. It's a total crapshoot.

Unfortunately it's a crap-shoot that all teams without a QB must play. I gave up trying to predict success with QB prospects. I'd say Petty has a chance. I like his approach to the game and game management. He has the arm talent that you need. What he doesn't have is experience in a pro system where he reads defense. But he seems to pass the IQ test so he can learn. Draft him, let him learn, and see where it takes you.

[MillsapsBillsFan]

I think your percentages are high across the board. The round 1 percent is probably more like 25-40. And it only goes down from there. It's a total crapshoot.

Unfortunately it's a crap-shoot that all teams without a QB must play. I gave up trying to predict success with QB prospects. I'd say Petty has a chance. I like his approach to the game and game management. He has the arm talent that you need. What he doesn't have is experience in a pro system where he reads defense. But he seems to pass the IQ test so he can learn. Draft him, let him learn, and see where it takes you.

The only thing that worries me about that approach is actually giving him the time to learn. This league is so QB hungry that if he shows any potential he'll be thrust into the starting role and that could ruin a young QB. I don't think were a team that has the talent at that position right now to let a guy sit and learn, especially with Cassel on a short term deal

I really do like Petty and I think he's very talented, he had to carry Baylor on his back many times and he did that very well. So I do hope theres a way we can get him (best case scenario we can trade back and get him) but I just really worry about him being thrust into the spotlight when hes not ready

[trapezeus]

the bed is made for the bills. the 3 they have right now should be the ones they have. any more and it becomes too much.

EJ isn't great - but he can be a good back up with his .500 record with a crappy offense. too early to give up on him.
Cassel is what he is and a good insurance back up.
Tyrod is the excellent #3 where you hope he is a diamond in the ruff.

where a guy with a lot of cons and isn't day 1 ready, whats the point of adding him. This team has needs and it has areas where having more depth isn't a bad thing.

i think it's a bigger risk to say we are run first team without a deep and talented OL. Even if you think Marrone held the OL back big time, you still need bodies to handle injuries. i don't think we are deep enough to handle that.

[PromoTheRobot]

Not a chance they take Petty.

[justasportsfan]

The Bills are typically fairly transparent. So, it wouldn't surprise me if the smoke is real.

I like the thought of drafting him. Even at 50. But more so at 81. Mayock has hiom as the 3rd best and Whaley has stated that he thinks the next tier isn't too far down from Winston and Mariota


I agree. I doubt at 50 or even 81. Petty wouldn't be an impact player that Kiko , Preston Brown were . I think they will find someone to replace Tuel though.

[EDS]

If the bills do pick Petty or any other QB at 50 then to me, that would mean they are throwing in the towel on EJ.

[trapezeus]

knowing that they can't get dramatically better at QB this season, why take a project? IT seems clear as day that the team wants to get to the playoffs. One great way to do that is to have a dominant defense and an OL that can make running a breeze.

they have the D. They have some servicable OL....if the goal is playoffs this year, the safest way to do that is to stuff the OL cupboard with more OL.

taking a qb here starts tipping the whaley years into the "i don't think he knows what he's doing". If he keeps adding good players at positions of need, then it starts tipping towards, "he had a big plan and while his QB pick didn't pan out...a lot of other stuff did".

Lastly, i can't see petty at 50 being the BPA across all positions. so at that point it's a reach.

[Bill Cody]

Not a chance they take Petty.

If he's still on the board at 81 I would. You can't fix the QB problem with guys like Cassell and Tie Rod. Petty has the arm, it would take a couple years to teach him all he needs to know. If he knew it all now he'd be a top 10 pick.

[better days]

I would hate to see the Bills draft a Guard & 3 years from now we realize the next Russell Wilson slipped through our hands again.

I think a QB should be drafted every year until a franchise QB is on the team.

And you never know what rnd that QB could come in.

[X-Era]

I would not rule out a move down to pick up an additional 3rd and to take Petty later in the 2nd or possibly with an early 3rd.

My thought is that if other QB needy teams don't land Winston or Mariota and consider Petty the 3rd best that they may get trigger happy on him and take him in the 2nd or early 3rd.

[X-Era]

the bed is made for the bills. the 3 they have right now should be the ones they have. any more and it becomes too much.

EJ isn't great - but he can be a good back up with his .500 record with a crappy offense. too early to give up on him.
Cassel is what he is and a good insurance back up.
Tyrod is the excellent #3 where you hope he is a diamond in the ruff.

where a guy with a lot of cons and isn't day 1 ready, whats the point of adding him. This team has needs and it has areas where having more depth isn't a bad thing.

i think it's a bigger risk to say we are run first team without a deep and talented OL. Even if you think Marrone held the OL back big time, you still need bodies to handle injuries. i don't think we are deep enough to handle that.I do not disgaree that the roster seems full at QB right now.

I think if they draft Petty or even Grayson you're looking at Tuel being gone and then Petty competing with Tyrod for the #3 job and the last roster spot. Since would we have taken Petty in the top 3 rounds you'd have to think he'd earn the spot and that they'd either release Tyrod or trade EJ. I can't see Cassel going anywhere since he brings the vet presence. And you can't risk the PS with Petty since another team may just sign him in the process of moving him to the PS.

Only a late round QB would prevent the roster from getting too crowded since you can simply keep Tyrod as the #3 and move the late round draftee to the PS.

I think Tuel needs to go regardless and that you need 4 to go to camp.

[The Jokeman]

If the bills do pick Petty or any other QB at 50 then to me, that would mean they are throwing in the towel on EJ.

and to me it's foolish to throw the towel on EJ this year since Whaley didn't make it sound like any of the QBs in this draft are great. Draft a QB next year with our 1st if we need to. Build the rest of the roster this year. Here's an article about 10 QBs for next year's draft to remember http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/writer/dennis-dodd/25167428/the-10-qbs-well-talk-about-when-the-2016-nfl-draft-rolls-around Or if we do take a QB then take one in Round 6 or 7 as you never know we might get another Brady.

The names that stand out to me are Hogan and Hackenberg. As Hogan was brought to Stanford under the Harbaugh/Roman years so he might turn things around. Yet he's questionable now another guy is Hackenberg because of the Penn State/Pegula connection.

[The Natrix]

Is it just me or does anyone else get the feeling that every QB prospect in this draft is going to bust?

[snow1989]

Is it just me or does anyone else get the feeling that every QB prospect in this draft is going to bust?

I agree with some here that say its a crap shoot...you roll the dice with the info you have and hope for the best. Look how long Marino lasted? The jets took O'Brien ahead of him! How different would those franchises have been? Problem is you have to find a qb that fits your system as well as has all the tools. I think Petty is high at #50...if we got him lower then I'd be ok with it, but EJ is already "our" project qb.

[swiper]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/04/30/report-saints-see-bryce-petty-as-drafts-best-pure-passer/


Report: Saints see Bryce Petty as draft’s “best pure passer”

Posted by Mike Wilkening on April 30, 2015, 2:20 AM EDT
https://nbcprofootballtalk.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/cd0ymzcznguwzdbhnduynddiytjhm2yyzthlmtjjotqwyyznptgwntezmwvln2i4zjhjnzvjyzm5m2m5odhjywm4mmy2-e1430374372440.jpeg?w=229
AP
With nine picks in the 2015 draft, including five in the first three rounds, the Saints are well-positioned to add some young talent at positions of need.

One position that isn’t a pressing need is quarterback; after all, Drew Brees (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/591/drew-brees) is under contract for two more seasons. However, with no heir apparent to Brees, it wouldn’t be a surprise if New Orleans drafted a young passer.

And according to a published report, there is one quarterback in the Class of 2015 with whom the Saints could be especially fond.

In his first-round mock draft (http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/bob-mcginns-first-round-nfl-mock-draft-b99490465z1-301778881.html), well-connected Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reporter Bob McGinn has New Orleans taking Baylor quarterback Bryce Petty (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/10419/bryce-petty) with the No. 31 pick.
According to McGinn, the Saints believe Petty is “the best pure passer in the draft.”

Per multiple reports, the Saints put Petty through a private workout earlier this month.

The No. 31 pick was acquired in the deal that sent tight end Jimmy Graham (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5842/jimmy-graham) to Seattle. The Saints also have their own first-round selection (No. 13). In addition, the Saints have one second-round choice (No. 44) and two third-round picks (Nos. 75 and 78).

The Bills have also been linked to Petty after meeting with him (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/04/29/bryce-petty-met-with-bills-on-tuesday-night/) on Tuesday. However, the Bills don’t have a first-rounder and don’t pick until 50th overall.

Indeed, the QB intrigue in the 2015 draft doesn’t end with where Marcus Mariota (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/9385/marcus-mariota) lands.

[HHURRICANE]

I think if we take a QB with our second or third pick than EJ is as good as gone. Cassel is already the starter.

[better days]

I think if we take a QB with our second or third pick than EJ is as good as gone. Cassel is already the starter.

Regardless if the Bills pick a QB at #50, EJ will get the chance to compete for the starters job in TC.

[X-Era]

It's possible that Petty goes in the 1st but unlikely IMO

[SpikedLemonade]

Petty will require a year or two to develop. He is a project.

If we are ready to win now like many here believe, then drafting Petty in the 2nd round does not make sense.

I would think we are looking for a starter in the 2nd round.

[better days]

I do not disgaree that the roster seems full at QB right now.

I think if they draft Petty or even Grayson you're looking at Tuel being gone and then Petty competing with Tyrod for the #3 job and the last roster spot. Since would we have taken Petty in the top 3 rounds you'd have to think he'd earn the spot and that they'd either release Tyrod or trade EJ. I can't see Cassel going anywhere since he brings the vet presence. And you can't risk the PS with Petty since another team may just sign him in the process of moving him to the PS.

Only a late round QB would prevent the roster from getting too crowded since you can simply keep Tyrod as the #3 and move the late round draftee to the PS.

I think Tuel needs to go regardless and that you need 4 to go to camp.

This is my thinking as well.

Tuel is an afterthought in every interview Rex has done.

But if the Bills draft a QB, some other QB has to go in addition to Tuel.

Cassel is the only QB I see as lock to be on the roster in September.

[Night Train]

Cassel is the only QB I see as lock to be on the roster in September.

Rex has expressed his love for Taylor several times now. I'm thinking he's also a lock. Supposedly hit the deep ball during workouts Wed. and showed his ability to escape and make plays. Rex is very easy to read and has no filter.

It's Manuel who is in the make or break category. Mentioned his delay in delivering the ball. Not a good first impression.

[better days]

Petty will require a year or two to develop. He is a project.

If we are ready to win now like many here believe, then drafting Petty in the 2nd round does not make sense.

I would think we are looking for a starter in the 2nd round.

No player drafted in the 2nd rnd is a stone cold lock to start his rookie year.

I trust Whaley & the value has has on the players.

If he thinks an OL player has a MUCH higher grade than Petty, I expect him to draft the OL player.

[Bill Cody]

Petty will require a year or two to develop. He is a project.

If we are ready to win now like many here believe, then drafting Petty in the 2nd round does not make sense.

I would think we are looking for a starter in the 2nd round.

Then why did they have him in? I'm more comfortable with Petty in the 3rd to be honest but QB's always seem to get overdrafted. Sure he's a project. No doubt about that. But as it stands right now we will still not have a QB in 2 years. Then what? A rock solid starter in rd 2 won't change that. Is the guy we're picking in the first round at 23 next year a lock to be ready to start year one? You tell me. At some point you have to get off the we have no QB merri go round.

I'm not really advocating for Petty although I admit I always look at the QB's arm first and this kid can make all the throws. I'm just saying you draft for more than 1 season even if you're in win now mode. Especially when you're not sure about the QB. Having said all that if we take a good player at 50 I won't complain. Fact is we usually just flat out whiff.

[better days]

Rex has expressed his love for Taylor several times now. I'm thinking he's also a lock. Supposedly hit the deep ball during workouts Wed. and showed his ability to escape and make plays. Rex is very easy to read and has no filter.

It's Manuel who is in the make or break category. Mentioned his delay in delivering the ball. Not a good first impression.

I agree about Taylor, but Rex said he was impressed by all the QB's so far.

I saw some video of EJ throwing long balls in the mini camp & the highlights were impressive....against air.