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Final 2015 Mock Draft... Full First Round, Bills selection, and Thoughts
Mike Watkins
@merk256
4/29/15
1.Tampa Bay: J.Winston, QB, FSU
2.Tennessee: M.Mariota, QB, Oregon
3.Jacksonville: D.Fowler, OLB/DE, Florida
4.Oakland: L.Williams, DE/DT, USC
5.Washington: A.Cooper, WR, Alabama
6.NY Jets: V.Beasley, DE/OLB, Clemson
7.Chicago: A.Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky
8.Atlanta: T.Gurley, RB, Georgia
9.NY Giants: K.White, WR, West Virginia
10.St.Louis: A.Peat, OT, Stanford
11.Minnesota: T.Waynes, CB, Michigan St
12.Cleveland: M.Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
13.New Orleans: D.Shelton, DT, Washington
14.Miami: B.Schreff, OG/OT, Iowa
15.S.F.: K.Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
16.Houston: L.Collins, OG/OT, LSU
17.San Diego: D.Parker, WR, Louisville
18.Kansas City: E.Flowers, OT, Miami
19.Cleveland: A.Armstead, DE/DT, Oregon
20.Philadelphia: B.Jones, CB, UConn
21.Cincinnati: S.Ray, DE, Missouri
22.Pittsburgh: R.Gregory, OLB/DE, Nebraska
23.Detroit: DJ Humphries, OT, Florida
24.Arizona: M.Brown, DT/DE, Texas
25.Carolina: J.Fisher, OT, Oregon
26.Baltimore: J.Strong, WR, Arizona St
27.Dallas: J.Collins, CB, LSU
28.Denver: D.Smith, OT, Penn State
29.Indianapolis: L.Collins, S, Alabama
30.Green Bay: E.Goldman, DT, FSU
31.New Orleans: M.Williams, TE, Minnesota
32.New England: B.Perriman, WR, UCF
Buffalo Bills Selection: PJ Williams, CB, FSU
Projecting out a first round selection is difficult, trying to project out the Bills selection in the 2nd round in a thin draft is extremely difficult. In any case I think the Bills are going defense and I think they are selecting a player to reinforce the secondary.
The reasoning is two fold
1.The Bills spent the offseason shoring up the offense. Rex Ryan learned his lesson in New York and decided to be extremely aggressive in the offseason looking to upgrade the offense so the defense can carry a little less of the load. That time has passed though and in my opinion Rex and the Bills will be looking to add to the other side of the ball to reinforce it to keep it strong now and for the long hall
2. It’s not necessarily a big need now but it will be next year so they would be wise to get a jump on it and get a talented young kid in the system. Gilmore will be a free agent and by all accounts they will want him back but nothing is guaranteed. McKelvin will be 31 by next season and the bottom will fall out quick for a CB who relies far more on athletic ability than his instincts. The Bills would be smart to get ahead of the ball on this issue. We all saw what can happen if Rex does not have talent at the CB spot, see last year in New York. The position is critical to Rex’s defense and I imagine he will do his best to not allow what happened last year with the Jets to ever happen with the Bills. I imagine the front office is on board with that
The Fit: Williams to me would fit right into what Rex likes in his CB’s. He is aggressive at the line of scrimmage and prefers man to zone coverage. He can be a gambler at times but has the swagger and short memory that you need at the position. In run support he is above average and makes the effort. Which for a CB coming out of college already puts him ahead of the game. The Bills could start him off in the slot to groom him for 2016 when either McKelvin or Gilmore depart.
Other thoughts on Bills Draft:
-I think it’s incorrect to assume the Bills will just pick whatever the best OL is on the board on Day 2. I believe, and I think they think the same, is that it’s not a realistic expectation to think that any OL selected in the 2nd or 3rd will come in right away and start. Most of the lineman selected in these rounds need a year or two in an NFL weight training program. I think 4 of the 5 OL spots are locked in and I believe they think Kromer can coach up a player already on the roster to fill in the last spot
-I’m all for taking a QB in any round in this draft for the Bills. I am firmly in the camp that, as Seattle did, you need to attack the problem with numbers. The more competition the better
-The Bills need to keep adding to the DL. They have spent a lot of time, money, and assets building up that unit and making it the identity of the team. They would be very wise to keep it deep and flush with talent
-I’d like them to pick an ILB at some point because depth there is a concern and next year may be an issue. I’m not in the bring Bradham back camp. I don’t think he is a critical part of the defense and much like RB can be filled relatively quickly in any draft. An injury to Bradham or Brown this year though could have a big impact with how little they have behind the two
-Personally I’m fine with the Bills WR’s right now but I get why they would want to add another one. Give whomever the QB is as much fire power as possible. It forces the defense to play more straight up which in turn creates more space for players like Watkins, Harvin, and McCoy
-I mocked PJ Williams to the Bills but I would love it if M.Peters made it to the Bills. In my opinion he’s the best man CB in the draft
-I would like it if the Bills could somehow find a ball hawking FS in this draft. Rex’s defense has always operated at its peak when he has a great center fielder of a Safety roaming around. The pressure he creates with the front 7 allows a player of that skill set to really go to town
1st Round Draft Thoughts
-I still have Mariota over Winston. I just like the way Mariota carries himself and I think he has a real shot to be the first QB to really make it on Sundays after spending his career on Saturdays in an option spread offense. The reality is I don’t trust Winston off the field
-Jaguars are a tough pick but I went with Fowler who I believe to be the best defensive player in the draft. I think the Jags have no shot of finding any player near Fowler’s skill set at the top of round two, while there is a decent shot of finding a good WR at the top of round 2
-A WR for Carr would be tempting but I think pairing Williams and Mack together is far more tempting for Oakland
-I went with Gurley to Atlanta because I think there is value to keeping the kid in Georgia and more importantly I think there will be an early run on pass rushers leaving the Falcons empty handed on that side of the ball.
-The Giants are a BPA drafting team that values skill position so I have a hard time believing that they will spend a top 10 pick on the OL. I think the player they want is Gurley but I think they will fall a pick short of him. That leaves them with White which when paired with OBJ and Cruz makes for a very deep and talented WR position for Eli to take advantage of
-I have T.Waynes as the first CB off the board. I overall do not like this CB class. I think there are a good number of #2 CB’s in the draft but none with shutdown ability
-A lot may think 12 is too high for M.Gordon but I think Cleveland will grab him there. They lack speed on offense and Gordon could provide help in both the running and passing game. He has J.Charles like ability
-The Eagles are a tough one to gage. Most think WR but I think Chip Kelly believes he can make it work with less talent on offense. Due to that he is going to load up his defense as much as possible. Jones can play CB or Safety and that makes him a good fit for the Eagles
-Ray and Gregory will be interesting to follow in the draft. The NFL grabs more and more negative off the field headlines every year. Teams may be wary of adding players with these issues. Dion Jordan getting his entire 2015 season taken away I’m sure had a lot of teams take stock if the reward is worth the risk
-Overall it’s a weak draft. I think you will see more teams lean towards BPA than depth this year. Problem with trying to forecast that is that the rankings for the players are all over the place.
-Look for teams to value 2016 picks more than 2015 picks in trades
Mike Watkins
@merk256
4/29/15
1.Tampa Bay: J.Winston, QB, FSU
2.Tennessee: M.Mariota, QB, Oregon
3.Jacksonville: D.Fowler, OLB/DE, Florida
4.Oakland: L.Williams, DE/DT, USC
5.Washington: A.Cooper, WR, Alabama
6.NY Jets: V.Beasley, DE/OLB, Clemson
7.Chicago: A.Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky
8.Atlanta: T.Gurley, RB, Georgia
9.NY Giants: K.White, WR, West Virginia
10.St.Louis: A.Peat, OT, Stanford
11.Minnesota: T.Waynes, CB, Michigan St
12.Cleveland: M.Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
13.New Orleans: D.Shelton, DT, Washington
14.Miami: B.Schreff, OG/OT, Iowa
15.S.F.: K.Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
16.Houston: L.Collins, OG/OT, LSU
17.San Diego: D.Parker, WR, Louisville
18.Kansas City: E.Flowers, OT, Miami
19.Cleveland: A.Armstead, DE/DT, Oregon
20.Philadelphia: B.Jones, CB, UConn
21.Cincinnati: S.Ray, DE, Missouri
22.Pittsburgh: R.Gregory, OLB/DE, Nebraska
23.Detroit: DJ Humphries, OT, Florida
24.Arizona: M.Brown, DT/DE, Texas
25.Carolina: J.Fisher, OT, Oregon
26.Baltimore: J.Strong, WR, Arizona St
27.Dallas: J.Collins, CB, LSU
28.Denver: D.Smith, OT, Penn State
29.Indianapolis: L.Collins, S, Alabama
30.Green Bay: E.Goldman, DT, FSU
31.New Orleans: M.Williams, TE, Minnesota
32.New England: B.Perriman, WR, UCF
Buffalo Bills Selection: PJ Williams, CB, FSU
Projecting out a first round selection is difficult, trying to project out the Bills selection in the 2nd round in a thin draft is extremely difficult. In any case I think the Bills are going defense and I think they are selecting a player to reinforce the secondary.
The reasoning is two fold
1.The Bills spent the offseason shoring up the offense. Rex Ryan learned his lesson in New York and decided to be extremely aggressive in the offseason looking to upgrade the offense so the defense can carry a little less of the load. That time has passed though and in my opinion Rex and the Bills will be looking to add to the other side of the ball to reinforce it to keep it strong now and for the long hall
2. It’s not necessarily a big need now but it will be next year so they would be wise to get a jump on it and get a talented young kid in the system. Gilmore will be a free agent and by all accounts they will want him back but nothing is guaranteed. McKelvin will be 31 by next season and the bottom will fall out quick for a CB who relies far more on athletic ability than his instincts. The Bills would be smart to get ahead of the ball on this issue. We all saw what can happen if Rex does not have talent at the CB spot, see last year in New York. The position is critical to Rex’s defense and I imagine he will do his best to not allow what happened last year with the Jets to ever happen with the Bills. I imagine the front office is on board with that
The Fit: Williams to me would fit right into what Rex likes in his CB’s. He is aggressive at the line of scrimmage and prefers man to zone coverage. He can be a gambler at times but has the swagger and short memory that you need at the position. In run support he is above average and makes the effort. Which for a CB coming out of college already puts him ahead of the game. The Bills could start him off in the slot to groom him for 2016 when either McKelvin or Gilmore depart.
Other thoughts on Bills Draft:
-I think it’s incorrect to assume the Bills will just pick whatever the best OL is on the board on Day 2. I believe, and I think they think the same, is that it’s not a realistic expectation to think that any OL selected in the 2nd or 3rd will come in right away and start. Most of the lineman selected in these rounds need a year or two in an NFL weight training program. I think 4 of the 5 OL spots are locked in and I believe they think Kromer can coach up a player already on the roster to fill in the last spot
-I’m all for taking a QB in any round in this draft for the Bills. I am firmly in the camp that, as Seattle did, you need to attack the problem with numbers. The more competition the better
-The Bills need to keep adding to the DL. They have spent a lot of time, money, and assets building up that unit and making it the identity of the team. They would be very wise to keep it deep and flush with talent
-I’d like them to pick an ILB at some point because depth there is a concern and next year may be an issue. I’m not in the bring Bradham back camp. I don’t think he is a critical part of the defense and much like RB can be filled relatively quickly in any draft. An injury to Bradham or Brown this year though could have a big impact with how little they have behind the two
-Personally I’m fine with the Bills WR’s right now but I get why they would want to add another one. Give whomever the QB is as much fire power as possible. It forces the defense to play more straight up which in turn creates more space for players like Watkins, Harvin, and McCoy
-I mocked PJ Williams to the Bills but I would love it if M.Peters made it to the Bills. In my opinion he’s the best man CB in the draft
-I would like it if the Bills could somehow find a ball hawking FS in this draft. Rex’s defense has always operated at its peak when he has a great center fielder of a Safety roaming around. The pressure he creates with the front 7 allows a player of that skill set to really go to town
1st Round Draft Thoughts
-I still have Mariota over Winston. I just like the way Mariota carries himself and I think he has a real shot to be the first QB to really make it on Sundays after spending his career on Saturdays in an option spread offense. The reality is I don’t trust Winston off the field
-Jaguars are a tough pick but I went with Fowler who I believe to be the best defensive player in the draft. I think the Jags have no shot of finding any player near Fowler’s skill set at the top of round two, while there is a decent shot of finding a good WR at the top of round 2
-A WR for Carr would be tempting but I think pairing Williams and Mack together is far more tempting for Oakland
-I went with Gurley to Atlanta because I think there is value to keeping the kid in Georgia and more importantly I think there will be an early run on pass rushers leaving the Falcons empty handed on that side of the ball.
-The Giants are a BPA drafting team that values skill position so I have a hard time believing that they will spend a top 10 pick on the OL. I think the player they want is Gurley but I think they will fall a pick short of him. That leaves them with White which when paired with OBJ and Cruz makes for a very deep and talented WR position for Eli to take advantage of
-I have T.Waynes as the first CB off the board. I overall do not like this CB class. I think there are a good number of #2 CB’s in the draft but none with shutdown ability
-A lot may think 12 is too high for M.Gordon but I think Cleveland will grab him there. They lack speed on offense and Gordon could provide help in both the running and passing game. He has J.Charles like ability
-The Eagles are a tough one to gage. Most think WR but I think Chip Kelly believes he can make it work with less talent on offense. Due to that he is going to load up his defense as much as possible. Jones can play CB or Safety and that makes him a good fit for the Eagles
-Ray and Gregory will be interesting to follow in the draft. The NFL grabs more and more negative off the field headlines every year. Teams may be wary of adding players with these issues. Dion Jordan getting his entire 2015 season taken away I’m sure had a lot of teams take stock if the reward is worth the risk
-Overall it’s a weak draft. I think you will see more teams lean towards BPA than depth this year. Problem with trying to forecast that is that the rankings for the players are all over the place.
-Look for teams to value 2016 picks more than 2015 picks in trades
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