DraftBoy
05-03-2015, 10:29 AM
I don't follow the draft like I used, but I still try and pay attention and have some thoughts to offer on our draft class and unofficial FA signings.
Round 2 - CB Ronald Darby
I'm not as down on the Darby pick as many here seemed to be. I think Darby is a high upside pick who was likely the best player available at our pick per our board. He's got great speed and cover ability. Darby's issue is that he struggles to find the ball when its in flight. His two career picks came from him breaking on a short route out of his backpedal. Those are plays that elite level athletic plays to burst out of his backpedal and break on the ball. I think under the tutoring of Donnie Henderson he could be a player who has the potential to be a #1 CB in the NFL. He has to improve his ability to play the ball though. Darby will be an immediate player for the Bills because he can tackle. In the Nickel and Dime situations I think you can play him outside slip McKelvin inside and feel great about the coverage v. aggressive blitzes.
Round 3 - OG John Miller
This was probably one of the worst kept secrets by the Bills, he was the 1st official visitor and the Bills were clearly high on him throughout the process. Miller is a versatile interior OL prospect who played both LG and RG at Louisville. He's not a road grader or a puller but he's technically sound and has a strong core. It's not easy to move Miller off his spot and he could be a really underrated addition for an OL that struggle to make holes last year. He's doesn't have ideal size and I have questions about why you take him Round 3 with guys like Tre Jackson still on the board, but he was the guy they targeted and got where they wanted him. The fact that they turned down an offer to trade this pick and add more picks should tell us how much they like Miller.
Round 5 - RB Karlos Williams
This was the pick that I think gave most fans a sick feeling in the pit of their stomachs that Day 3 was not going to be fun, and it wasn't. Williams is an incredible athlete but a questionable football player. He's got open field speed, power, and size, but he lacks the vision to find the running lane and was a safety just two years ago. I posed the question this morning on Twitter and hope a Bills reported asks somebody at OBD, but what officially is the plan with Williams? His size and speed combo are the perfect fit for a Rex Ryan defense at the SS position. However, we also have a pending hole at RB with Brown and Jackson in the final years of their contracts. I just don't know about this pick, I thought Williams would be available a couple of rounds later honestly.
Round 6 - LB Tony Steward
The Bills have this beyond annoying propensity to draft ST players for no apparent reason. Steward was a backup/ST for the majority of his career at Clemson. He's an athletic LB prospect but doesn't really pop out on film for anything. He's not a great coverage guy, he's not a great run stuffer. He's just your run of the mill LB who can run really well and tackle above average. I saw absolutely no reason to even make this pick and continue to be not only confused but beyond annoyed by the Nix/Whaley model of drafting ST guys. The one saving grace for this pick is that Steward was a former HS phenom, but that was two ACL surgeries ago. I just don't get this decision at all. By far our worst pick imo.
Round 6 - TE Nick O'Leary
Didn't we just sign a more athletic version of O'Leary in Charles Clay? That's why I said out loud when the pick was announced. Forget the FSU thing for a minute, but what does O'Leary bring us that we don't already have in Clay, or even in Gragg? O'Leary is a sure handed TE who has sneaky athleticism. He can run all the routes and is smooth in and out of his breaks. He's a willing blocker but he's got size limitations. I do like his versatility to work in line, off the line and out of the backfield. However, both Clay and Gragg already offer that. To me this pick says that Gragg's days are numbered more than anything else.
Round 7 - WR Dezmin Lewis - Central Arkansas
Lewis is the size WR that the Bills have lacked for years and he did some really good things at Central Arkansas. At 6'4, 212 lbs Lewis has plenty of size and he made some really impressive plays at Central Arkansas. He's a guy who does a good job high pointing the deep ball and offers some red zone ability as well. I don't think he sees the field much this year and may not even make the roster but he's a nice sleeper pick who could really come into play for the 2016 season.
UDFA Class -
Justin Hamilton DL ULL
A straight NT prospect who has the ability to make the roster due to his size and limited amount of guys who can play the NT spot for the Bills. He can push the pocket, but was never dominant at ULL.
Cam Thomas CB Western Kentucky
Size CB who can run pretty well. He's a guy who plays on the outside and can get physical with his jam using his size and long arms. He's a PS candidate only imo since we have an overload at CB right now.
AJ Tarpley LB Stanford
An ILB prospect who I actually like more than Steward. The Bills lack depth at ILB and Tarpley is an excellent read and tackle guy for this D. He's limited athletically and probably will never become more than a reserve guy but I think he has the ability to make the 53 man roster out of camp.
Clay Burton TE Florida
Brother of current NFL TE Tre Burton, but not near as athletic. Was a DE in HS and some people have mentioned he could be a DE/OLB prospect with some upside. If they move him back to D this signing makes more sense to me.
BJ Larsen LB Utah State
Think he's more likely to end up as a 5 tech guy than a LB, but he's listed at LB. Nice size and power, but limited speed. I don't see him as a guy who has a chance to make the roster.
Cedric Reed DE Texas
The crown jewel of the Bills FA's is Cedric Reed. He was a beast in 2013 and some saw him as a potential 1st rounder. He was the only FBS player beside Khalil Mack to record 5 sacks, 4 PBU's, and 5 FF's. If his knee is fully healed I think he has a real chance to become a player who not only makes the roster but could contribute next year working behind Mario.
Andrew Hudson DE Washington
Hudson went from a player who was told to transfer at the end of 2013 from the Huskies to a guy who ended being one of the stars of the D. He's an undersized 34 OLB prospect that would probably line up behind Jerry Hughes. A lot his production last year came to attention teams paid to Danny Shelton inside. Maybe he surprises me but I don't see it right now.
Spencer Roth P Baylor
Roth isn't the booming punter that we traditionally see the Bills try and bring in. Instead he's an accurate guy who put 40% of his punts last year inside the 20 and only had 2 go for touchbacks. He puts nice hang time on the ball and lets his coverage team (read Marcus Easley) get down the field to make a play. Concerns do surround the amount of time he takes to get the punt off once it has been caught but he only had one punt blocked at Baylor.
Merrill Noel DB Wake Forest
Freshman All-American at Wake Forest, Noell is a small CB in the mold of Robey. I honestly don't much about him outside he has dealt with a number of injuries in his career.
Andre Davis WR South Florida
Don't sleep on Davis potentially making this team. He's a bigger version of Robert Woods who runs great routes and has sure hands. I won't say much about him because Matt Waldman did an incredible write up at this link:
http://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2015/02/15/boiler-room-the-route-sorcery-of-usf-wr-andre-davis/
Tyson Chandler OT NC State
So this would be this years version of Micheal Jasper I suppose. A guy who comes out of nowhere with great athletic ability to wow scouts in a workout. 6'5, 331 with 31 reps at 225lbs is impressive. Chandler was the best OL at the NC State Pro Day and was put on teams radars then. Probably a guy you take and hope to develop in a year or two.
What's Missing:
Well the obvious item missing is a QB. The Bills drafted no QB's and signed no QB's from this draft class (as of yet). While the Bills do have four QB's on the roster, Jeff Tuel isn't a guy I'd bet anything on and the other three are just meh. I thought that the Bills should of gone hard after Brandon Bridge as a FA target after missing on Petty and Hundley.
Also I still have concerns on both lines. I wanted at least another OT and would of liked to see a backup center added as well. BJ Finney was a Free Agent who I know many here were high on. He would of been a good add for our line. I will be quiet pissed off if La'el Collins is cleared by the police tomorrow and the Bills do not put the full court press on him. Collins salary and signing bonus are capped and he very well may get an offer from every NFL team but the Bills need to do whatever they have to try and sign him.
Best Pick & FA Add:
No question the best pick was Ronald Darby. He was a 1st round talent at CB and really mirrored the BPA philosophy the Bills have been too eager to avoid in the past. The best FA add was Cedric Reed. He's a guy who some had a 4th-5th grade on and if he's fully recovered could become a contributing member of this team next season.
Worst Pick:
I still don't get the Tony Steward selection, I think he would of been there as FA in all honesty.
Final Thought:
This wasn't a good draft and it wasn't a bad draft. It was just a lot of meh. I thought the Bills got away from their BPA strategy after Darby and took who they wanted over more talented options. That's a frustrating trend that has at times held this team back. Without an answer at QB and questions along the OL it could be another .500 year for the Bills unfortunately.
Early 2016 thoughts:
QB Connor Cook, QB Christian Hackenburg or bust. Set your DVR's now because those are the top two consensus QB prospects for next year.
Round 2 - CB Ronald Darby
I'm not as down on the Darby pick as many here seemed to be. I think Darby is a high upside pick who was likely the best player available at our pick per our board. He's got great speed and cover ability. Darby's issue is that he struggles to find the ball when its in flight. His two career picks came from him breaking on a short route out of his backpedal. Those are plays that elite level athletic plays to burst out of his backpedal and break on the ball. I think under the tutoring of Donnie Henderson he could be a player who has the potential to be a #1 CB in the NFL. He has to improve his ability to play the ball though. Darby will be an immediate player for the Bills because he can tackle. In the Nickel and Dime situations I think you can play him outside slip McKelvin inside and feel great about the coverage v. aggressive blitzes.
Round 3 - OG John Miller
This was probably one of the worst kept secrets by the Bills, he was the 1st official visitor and the Bills were clearly high on him throughout the process. Miller is a versatile interior OL prospect who played both LG and RG at Louisville. He's not a road grader or a puller but he's technically sound and has a strong core. It's not easy to move Miller off his spot and he could be a really underrated addition for an OL that struggle to make holes last year. He's doesn't have ideal size and I have questions about why you take him Round 3 with guys like Tre Jackson still on the board, but he was the guy they targeted and got where they wanted him. The fact that they turned down an offer to trade this pick and add more picks should tell us how much they like Miller.
Round 5 - RB Karlos Williams
This was the pick that I think gave most fans a sick feeling in the pit of their stomachs that Day 3 was not going to be fun, and it wasn't. Williams is an incredible athlete but a questionable football player. He's got open field speed, power, and size, but he lacks the vision to find the running lane and was a safety just two years ago. I posed the question this morning on Twitter and hope a Bills reported asks somebody at OBD, but what officially is the plan with Williams? His size and speed combo are the perfect fit for a Rex Ryan defense at the SS position. However, we also have a pending hole at RB with Brown and Jackson in the final years of their contracts. I just don't know about this pick, I thought Williams would be available a couple of rounds later honestly.
Round 6 - LB Tony Steward
The Bills have this beyond annoying propensity to draft ST players for no apparent reason. Steward was a backup/ST for the majority of his career at Clemson. He's an athletic LB prospect but doesn't really pop out on film for anything. He's not a great coverage guy, he's not a great run stuffer. He's just your run of the mill LB who can run really well and tackle above average. I saw absolutely no reason to even make this pick and continue to be not only confused but beyond annoyed by the Nix/Whaley model of drafting ST guys. The one saving grace for this pick is that Steward was a former HS phenom, but that was two ACL surgeries ago. I just don't get this decision at all. By far our worst pick imo.
Round 6 - TE Nick O'Leary
Didn't we just sign a more athletic version of O'Leary in Charles Clay? That's why I said out loud when the pick was announced. Forget the FSU thing for a minute, but what does O'Leary bring us that we don't already have in Clay, or even in Gragg? O'Leary is a sure handed TE who has sneaky athleticism. He can run all the routes and is smooth in and out of his breaks. He's a willing blocker but he's got size limitations. I do like his versatility to work in line, off the line and out of the backfield. However, both Clay and Gragg already offer that. To me this pick says that Gragg's days are numbered more than anything else.
Round 7 - WR Dezmin Lewis - Central Arkansas
Lewis is the size WR that the Bills have lacked for years and he did some really good things at Central Arkansas. At 6'4, 212 lbs Lewis has plenty of size and he made some really impressive plays at Central Arkansas. He's a guy who does a good job high pointing the deep ball and offers some red zone ability as well. I don't think he sees the field much this year and may not even make the roster but he's a nice sleeper pick who could really come into play for the 2016 season.
UDFA Class -
Justin Hamilton DL ULL
A straight NT prospect who has the ability to make the roster due to his size and limited amount of guys who can play the NT spot for the Bills. He can push the pocket, but was never dominant at ULL.
Cam Thomas CB Western Kentucky
Size CB who can run pretty well. He's a guy who plays on the outside and can get physical with his jam using his size and long arms. He's a PS candidate only imo since we have an overload at CB right now.
AJ Tarpley LB Stanford
An ILB prospect who I actually like more than Steward. The Bills lack depth at ILB and Tarpley is an excellent read and tackle guy for this D. He's limited athletically and probably will never become more than a reserve guy but I think he has the ability to make the 53 man roster out of camp.
Clay Burton TE Florida
Brother of current NFL TE Tre Burton, but not near as athletic. Was a DE in HS and some people have mentioned he could be a DE/OLB prospect with some upside. If they move him back to D this signing makes more sense to me.
BJ Larsen LB Utah State
Think he's more likely to end up as a 5 tech guy than a LB, but he's listed at LB. Nice size and power, but limited speed. I don't see him as a guy who has a chance to make the roster.
Cedric Reed DE Texas
The crown jewel of the Bills FA's is Cedric Reed. He was a beast in 2013 and some saw him as a potential 1st rounder. He was the only FBS player beside Khalil Mack to record 5 sacks, 4 PBU's, and 5 FF's. If his knee is fully healed I think he has a real chance to become a player who not only makes the roster but could contribute next year working behind Mario.
Andrew Hudson DE Washington
Hudson went from a player who was told to transfer at the end of 2013 from the Huskies to a guy who ended being one of the stars of the D. He's an undersized 34 OLB prospect that would probably line up behind Jerry Hughes. A lot his production last year came to attention teams paid to Danny Shelton inside. Maybe he surprises me but I don't see it right now.
Spencer Roth P Baylor
Roth isn't the booming punter that we traditionally see the Bills try and bring in. Instead he's an accurate guy who put 40% of his punts last year inside the 20 and only had 2 go for touchbacks. He puts nice hang time on the ball and lets his coverage team (read Marcus Easley) get down the field to make a play. Concerns do surround the amount of time he takes to get the punt off once it has been caught but he only had one punt blocked at Baylor.
Merrill Noel DB Wake Forest
Freshman All-American at Wake Forest, Noell is a small CB in the mold of Robey. I honestly don't much about him outside he has dealt with a number of injuries in his career.
Andre Davis WR South Florida
Don't sleep on Davis potentially making this team. He's a bigger version of Robert Woods who runs great routes and has sure hands. I won't say much about him because Matt Waldman did an incredible write up at this link:
http://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2015/02/15/boiler-room-the-route-sorcery-of-usf-wr-andre-davis/
Tyson Chandler OT NC State
So this would be this years version of Micheal Jasper I suppose. A guy who comes out of nowhere with great athletic ability to wow scouts in a workout. 6'5, 331 with 31 reps at 225lbs is impressive. Chandler was the best OL at the NC State Pro Day and was put on teams radars then. Probably a guy you take and hope to develop in a year or two.
What's Missing:
Well the obvious item missing is a QB. The Bills drafted no QB's and signed no QB's from this draft class (as of yet). While the Bills do have four QB's on the roster, Jeff Tuel isn't a guy I'd bet anything on and the other three are just meh. I thought that the Bills should of gone hard after Brandon Bridge as a FA target after missing on Petty and Hundley.
Also I still have concerns on both lines. I wanted at least another OT and would of liked to see a backup center added as well. BJ Finney was a Free Agent who I know many here were high on. He would of been a good add for our line. I will be quiet pissed off if La'el Collins is cleared by the police tomorrow and the Bills do not put the full court press on him. Collins salary and signing bonus are capped and he very well may get an offer from every NFL team but the Bills need to do whatever they have to try and sign him.
Best Pick & FA Add:
No question the best pick was Ronald Darby. He was a 1st round talent at CB and really mirrored the BPA philosophy the Bills have been too eager to avoid in the past. The best FA add was Cedric Reed. He's a guy who some had a 4th-5th grade on and if he's fully recovered could become a contributing member of this team next season.
Worst Pick:
I still don't get the Tony Steward selection, I think he would of been there as FA in all honesty.
Final Thought:
This wasn't a good draft and it wasn't a bad draft. It was just a lot of meh. I thought the Bills got away from their BPA strategy after Darby and took who they wanted over more talented options. That's a frustrating trend that has at times held this team back. Without an answer at QB and questions along the OL it could be another .500 year for the Bills unfortunately.
Early 2016 thoughts:
QB Connor Cook, QB Christian Hackenburg or bust. Set your DVR's now because those are the top two consensus QB prospects for next year.