EJ's draft breakdown on weaknesses is scary accurate

[Skooby]

Does any of this sound familiar??




http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/ej-manuel?id=2539228






Weaknesses


Gives opponents too many chances for turnovers by forcing throws into coverage trying to make a play. Area code accuracy – short throws are often low or wide, preventing receivers from making a play after the catch. Deep ball accuracy is uneven, as well. Gets happy feet under pressure, spins to the outside to avoid the rush. Inconsistent recognizing blitz. Must step into his throws more consistently to fully utilize his arm strength.

[sudzy]

NFL Comparison Blaine Gabbert

This is what we were shooting for?

[Skooby]

This is what we were shooting for?

Mid 1st round none the less, unlike the average NFL consensus of a 3rd round pick that's going to be a project.

[Meathead]

still a reasonable gamble at the time. they knew they overdrafted but their strategy was to try to pick the guy that would blossom. looks unlikely now and in hindsight it looks a lot worse but its a dice rall and that roll is still technically in play so it could still rally

its like playing wrong way craps, you roll a seven and you get a career backup or worse, you roll craps and you get a starter. but you gotta take the rolls one way or another to win. if you dont know how to play wrong way craps then move on this is not for your kind

[Skooby]

still a reasonable gamble at the time. they knew they overdrafted but their strategy was to try to pick the guy that would blossom. looks unlikely now and in hindsight it looks a lot worse but its a dice rall and that roll is still technically in play so it could still rally

its like playing wrong way craps, you roll a seven and you get a career backup or worse, you roll craps and you get a starter. but you gotta take the rolls one way or another to win. if you dont know how to play wrong way craps then move on this is not for your kind
Couldn't we have rolled the dice later than mid-first ? Who was going to draft him before or even near that ?? I'll go with nobody & not in the first round. We got Kiko with that extra 2nd round pick, who has now turned into LeSean McCoy.

[Topas]

Well, we complain that they never take a QB. And when they make sure that they get their guy then we complain also. Would you have preferred that they wait until the second round and maybe then he would have benn gone and we draft a safety!?!?!?
I am fully behind the strategy of throwing the kitchen sink at the QB position. I don't have a problem with drafting EJ in the first. I have more of a problem with the years when we did not draft a QB in the first.

[Skooby]

Well, we complain that they never take a QB. And when they make sure that they get their guy then we complain also. Would you have preferred that they wait until the second round and maybe then he would have benn gone and we draft a safety!?!?!?
I am fully behind the strategy of throwing the kitchen sink at the QB position. I don't have a problem with drafting EJ in the first. I have more of a problem with the years when we did not draft a QB in the first.
Area code accuracy is a huge red flag & it hasn't changed.

[Night Train]

The issue was Buddy Nix was leaving and Ralph/Brandon kept their word that they would let him pick a QB in Round 1 before going out the door, post draft. This is it for Manuel this summer. Show something or be gone. Cassel and Taylor are transition QB's until next year. Running the ball and playing good D will indeed be the primary plan.

I'm hoping with a new owner and a good working relationship between Whaley & Ryan that those days are gone. The way the Bills did business was absurd for far too long. Too much Ralph losing touch and treating the team as a part time hobby.

[Albany,n.y.]

The issue was Buddy Nix was leaving and Ralph/Brandon kept their word that they would let him pick a QB in Round 1 before going out the door, post draft. This is it for Manuel this summer. Show something or be gone. Cassel and Taylor are transition QB's until next year. Running the ball and playing good D will indeed be the primary plan.

I'm hoping with a new owner and a good working relationship between Whaley & Ryan that those days are gone. The way the Bills did business was absurd for far too long. Too much Ralph losing touch and treating the team as a part time hobby.

Nix being allowed to pick a QB on his way out was like allowing Pops to try to fix George's Jon Voight car.

[The Jokeman]

Does any of this sound familiar??




http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/ej-manuel?id=2539228

I don't see EJ penchant to throwing INTs as that reports eludes. I will agree he doesn't see to throw to a spot as maybe he doesn't trust as his receivers yet to get to the spot. Ie he only throws to guys that are open which seems most young QBs struggle with.

- - - Updated - - -


Nix being allowed to pick a QB on his way out was like allowing Pops to try to fix George's Jon Voight car.

All things considered EJ might be the best QB of his class, so I don't know if we can fault Nix for that. Now saying he reached for EJ is definately a worry but considered we ended up getting Kiko/Shady to move down to get EJ for what turned into Tavon Austin I wouldn't say it was a bad use of our original 1st Round pick.

[Topas]

Area code accuracy is a huge red flag & it hasn't changed.

As said, it is easy to criticize that move. Especially afterwards when it did not work out. SF drafted the basically same QB (Kap) and everybody here said, how we failed to not draft him. There are only so many Aaron Rodgers available.
What would you have done?

[EricStratton]

Top ten QB's last season in QBR are all over 30.

Players do mature and grow into the position.

[The Jokeman]

Top ten QB's last season in QBR are all over 30.

Players do mature and grow into the position.

But But But Russell Wilson didn't. Of course people want to forget he was the exception not the rule. That said Russell is a glorified game manager.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Top ten QB's last season in QBR are all over 30.

Players do mature and grow into the position.

I think that's less players growing into the position and more the talent pool from colleges changing. The shotgun spread/dual threat QB offenses are all over the place, and so you wind up with guys who have dominated college but never taken a single traditional dropback. Go back even to 2008 when QBR was first rolled out and 6 of the top 10 (Ryan, Cutler, Rivers, Rodgers, Brees, Schaub) were all in their 20s.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

But But But Russell Wilson didn't. Of course people want to forget he was the exception not the rule. That said Russell is a glorified game manager.

Alex Smith and Andy Dalton are game managers. Russell Wilson isn't in the elite tier of QBs, but he's not a game manager or that term has no meaning.

[Bill Cody]

news flash: finding a QB is hard

[better days]

From the article:


Bottom line: ."...and hope he can improve on his consistency."

IMO, that really is the bottom line. If EJ can do that we have a QB, if not we have to keep looking.

[Meathead]

I'm pretty sure we are going to see something completely different then we saw his last couple of outings. a lot of people are going to be very surprised at how much better he looks. now whether that translates into games, and whether he can keep the job that's an entirely different question but he's not going to be bambi staring down a semi anymore

[Skooby]

I'm pretty sure we are going to see something completely different then we saw his last couple of outings. a lot of people are going to be very surprised at how much better he looks. now whether that translates into games, and whether he can keep the job that's an entirely different question but he's not going to be bambi staring down a semi anymore

EJ bombed last pre-season, then the coaches used the excuse of vanilla game-planning. Then the regular season started & the bomb continued until the plug was pulled after game 4, Orton literally coming in cold but better. Now we're hoping for him to be something different again ??

Lets dream at night, not during the day.

[better days]

EJ bombed last pre-season, then the coaches used the excuse of vanilla game-planning. Then the regular season started & the bomb continued until the plug was pulled after game 4, Orton literally coming in cold but better. Now we're hoping for him to be something different again ??

Lets dream at night, not during the day.

John Lennon: You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one.

I may be dreaming, but I want to see EJ after he has had an actual NFL Coach & OC.

[Yasgur's Farm]

Bottom line... In spite of what the self proclaimed board experts say... EJ's performances have not been such that a forgone conclusion of "bust" is at hand. He could very well prove otherwise by simply following the traditional career path of others who have become successful "franchise" QB's... Joe Ferguson comes to mind. Or he could fall on his face and drop of the face of planet NFL.

My personal hope is that he gets this entire season so we can know for sure before heading into the next offseason... If not for Doug "obviously" Marone, we might already know... 14 games is simply not enough.

[better days]

Bottom line... In spite of what the self proclaimed board experts say... EJ's performances have not been such that a forgone conclusion of "bust" is at hand. He could very well prove otherwise by simply following the traditional career path of others who have become successful "franchise" QB's... Joe Ferguson comes to mind. Or he could fall on his face and drop of the face of planet NFL.

My personal hope is that he gets this entire season so we can know for sure before heading into the next offseason... If not for Doug "obviously" Marone, we might already know... 14 games is simply not enough.

I agree, except Ferguson had a good Rookie year.

Won 4 of the first 6 games he started. The only other QB to do that was Matt Ryan of the Falcons.

[Yasgur's Farm]

Ferguson had OJ Simpson and the electric Company... He hardly ever threw the ball... Especially because OJ had hands of stone.

Also.. Fergy had JD Hill and Bobby Chandler when he did need to let it fly.

Link to Fergy's stats... Rook stats blew http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FergJo00.htm

[Edward Robinson]

Here is another scouting report about a different QB which is dead on

https://tommeltonscouting.wordpress.com/2011/10/19/preliminary-russell-wilson-scouting-report/ (https://tommeltonscouting.wordpress.com/2011/10/19/preliminary-russell-wilson-scouting-report/)

Size: This is Wilson’s most serious issue as a prospect, and it is what will likely hurt his stock more than anything once the season ends and the grueling NFL Draft postseason begins. I would estimate his height to be about 5’10” which is about three or four inches shorter than most teams would prefer at minimum at the quarterback position. Some people will write him off because of his lack of height, but while I acknowledge it will make life significantly harder for him in the NFL I will absolutely not write him off because of it. It will certainly negatively affect his stock though, and anyone would be foolish to argue otherwise.

Arm Strength: Wilson has very good arm strength. He has great zip on passes to all levels and throws a very nice deep ball. He can make every NFL throw thanks to his very good arm strength and this is definitely one of his strongest attributes. He can absolutely rifle throws from the pocket or when he is moving outside of the pocket which makes him very dangerous.

Accuracy: Wilson’s accuracy is also very impressive. He has quality accuracy to all levels of the field whether they are short, medium or deep throws. Wilson knows when to rifle a throw down the seam and when he needs to put some touch on a pass to drop a throw into a hole between the corner and safety on the sideline. He is also very accurate on the run which makes him dangerous on the outside because if the coverage breaks down at all Wilson can find a hole to throw the ball.

Mechanics: Wilson has quality mechanics. His throwing motion is compact and quick, he has good footwork in the pocket as well as plenty of experience dropping back from center. He has good footwork on play action as well. He usually keeps his shoulders square when scrambling outside of the pocket which is critical to throwing accurate passes on the run quickly. Wilson could stand to get out from under center quicker in my opinion, particularly when handing the ball off at times. But that is a pretty ticky-tacky mechanical flaw, and can easily be coached up.

Mobility: Wilson’s mobility is pretty rare for the position because not only can he threaten defenses with his legs because of his great athleticism he has managed to develop into a great passing quarterback with great mobility rather than a great runner that can throw as well. The distinction may not be very obvious, but the ability to scramble and gain yardage with your legs is usually a crutch that prevents athletic quarterbacks from developing into good or great passers. That is certainly not the case for Wilson but that doesn’t mean he can’t rip off big runs when he gets outside of the pocket. Teams have to account for his ability to run and that is so hard to do against Wisconsin thanks to their fantastic running game as well as Wilson’s ability to stretch the field as a passer. His mobility helps him extend plays and makes him a very dangerous passer outside of the pocket.

Pre/Post Snap Reads: Wilson seems to make very good pre and post snap reads based off of what I’ve seen of him. At times at NC State he would force passes into coverage and make poor decisions when he was simply trying to throw his team into the game and keep them competitive. But at Wisconsin he has been terrifyingly efficient now that he has one of the best running games in the country helping him balance out the passing attack. He does a good job of identifying coverages pre-snap and reads defenses well once he drops back to pass. He also does a good job of reading defenses quickly after play action fakes and does a good job of making decisive decisions.

Pocket Poise: I think pocket poise is a very important quality to identify in quarterbacks and I think Wilson has pretty good poise in the pocket, especially for someone with so much athletic ability who can scramble for positive yardage. One of the few weaknesses in his game seems to be when there is pressure around him in the pocket and trash at his feet. I’m not sure why this is, but it certainly limits his ability to find throwing lanes because of his height and he can’t often scramble out of it, so it makes sense that in these situations he would be less effective than others. I think that causes him some discomfort at times, and will result in throws off of his back foot or less accurate passes than when he has a cleaner pocket, when he can side-step the rush to find a throwing lane, or when he can move outside of the pocket where he has clear vision of the field.

Intangibles: Russell Wilson’s intangibles are off the charts as far as I’m concerned because of how significant of a leader he was at NC State and because he has been able to seamlessly transition into a completely different locker room and organization and not only become a quality starter, but become a fantastic player worthy of at least some Heisman consideration as well as the leader of his new team, all in a matter of weeks and months. As I like to say “you can’t coach that” and that is as true about Wilson’s intangibles as it is with anything else. He’s a very hard worker, he’s very poised, he’s intelligent and he is just a natural leader. Yes, I think the Badgers would have been good this year even with a question mark at quarterback, but Wilson has been the guy that has not only made them great, but has made them borderline unstoppable. There is definitely something to be said for that.

Character: Wilson’s character is top notch from what I know of him and he is considered to be a very hard worker, very studious, watches a lot of film and clearly has his head on straight. Drafting him won’t be a risk as far as character is concerned.

Overall: I’m a huge fan of Wilson and even though I expected him to be a terrific quarterback for the University of Wisconsin even I couldn’t have anticipated him being this good this soon. He has absolutely shut up everyone who doubted that he could transition into the Badgers smoothly and he has not only transformed the Badgers into contenders, he has transformed them into a virtual lock for the Rose Bowl as the eventual Big 10 champions. His height is his most significant issue as a prospect, and beyond that he is a very well-rounded prospect that if he was three or four inches taller would warrant serious first or second round consideration in my opinion. He’s got plenty of upside, he just has to prove that he can overcome his lack of ideal (or even average) height. Playing behind Wisconsin’s mammoth offensive line and having this kind of success can’t hurt, and it will be interesting to see how he ultimately translates to the NFL once he gets drafted.

Projection: 3rd-4th round. Wilson has the ability of a 1st or 2nd round selection, but his height will hurt his stock and make people question how well he will transition to the NFL. I think he can make it as a NFL starter, but his height certainly poses a significant barrier between himself and success at the next level. Personally, I’ll be rooting for him. I am really looking forward to seeing him play at the Senior Bowl this year if he elects to go.

[swiper]

Bottom line... In spite of what the self proclaimed board experts say... EJ's performances have not been such that a forgone conclusion of "bust" is at hand. He could very well prove otherwise by simply following the traditional career path of others who have become successful "franchise" QB's... Joe Ferguson comes to mind. Or he could fall on his face and drop of the face of planet NFL.

My personal hope is that he gets this entire season so we can know for sure before heading into the next offseason... If not for Doug "obviously" Marone, we might already know... 14 games is simply not enough.

Now there's one self-proclaimed board expert who clearly doesn't know anything about QBs.

[BillsImpossible]

John Lennon: You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one.

I may be dreaming, but I want to see EJ after he has had an actual NFL Coach & OC.

As much as I would like to blame Marrone and Hackett for Manuel's poor performance, I can't.

They dumbed down their playbook so much to give EJ an opportunity to make simple plays.

Marrone and Hackett did put EJ in a position to win, he just couldn't make the plays.

The coaches can only do so much. They gave EJ training wheels, said not to worry about running and just connect A to B. He couldn't do it, unfortunately.

[better days]

As much as I would like to blame Marrone and Hackett for Manuel's poor performance, I can't.

They dumbed down their playbook so much to give EJ an opportunity to make simple plays.

Marrone and Hackett did put EJ in a position to win, he just couldn't make the plays.

The coaches can only do so much. They gave EJ training wheels, said not to worry about running and just connect A to B. He couldn't do it, unfortunately.

The point is running is a big part of EJ's game.

To tell EJ to not run is to cripple him.

Asking EJ to be a West Coast QB is just like asking JP Losman to be a West Coast QB.

Neither are very good at that.

But EJ can move around & throw well when not in the pocket, such as when rolling out of the pocket, just as JP could.

And both could sling the ball down field.

I want to see what EJ does when Roman has a system in place that plays to EJ's STRENGTHS.

[Skooby]

The point is running is a big part of EJ's game.

To tell EJ to not run is to cripple him.

Asking EJ to be a West Coast QB is just like asking JP Losman to be a West Coast QB.

Neither are very good at that.

But EJ can move around & throw well when not in the pocket, such as when rolling out of the pocket, just as JP could.

And both could sling the ball down field.

I want to see what EJ does when Roman has a system in place that plays to EJ's STRENGTHS.

Can you please list those EJ strengths ??

[better days]

Can you please list those EJ strengths ??

EJ is a BIG mobile QB who has a strong arm & can throw while on the move.

[swiper]

Any of them can throw while on the move. It's a matter of completing those passes. And he doesn't.

[better days]

Any of them can throw while on the move. It's a matter of completing those passes. And he doesn't.

Not true. Cassel can't move at all.

And yes, EJ does complete those passes.

About as well as when he his standing still.

And yes I know he needs to be more consistent.

[swiper]

Cassel can throw on the run: http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d81408728/WK-9-Matt-Cassel-highlights (and throw deep)

And he can run: http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000298142/Matt-Cassel-6-yard-touchdown-run

He's not as stiff as many Bills fans think.

[better days]

Cassel can throw on the run: http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d81408728/WK-9-Matt-Cassel-highlights (and throw deep)

And he can run: http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000298142/Matt-Cassel-6-yard-touchdown-run

He's not as stiff as many Bills fans think.

Well, I knew Cassel could throw downfield, but I don't think his arm is as strong as EJ's though.

I hope he can still move like he did when on the Chiefs in that highlight. That Vikings highlight was not really much of a run. Straight ahead with nobody there he needed to avoid.

[swiper]

Believe me, it's not hard to find Matt Cassel low-light videos either.

We just have to hope the cream rises to the top.

Or maybe, more accurately, hope there is some cream at all.

[Skooby]

The only chance at cream is Taylor rising up.

[WagonCircler]

Bottom line... In spite of what the self proclaimed board experts say... .

Here's the thing--beginning your post with "Bottom line" doesn't make it any less stupid or wrong. (Just FYI).

[better days]

The only chance at cream is Taylor rising up.

Well, Taylor threw a pick yesterday.

The good news is it was Darby that picked him off.

Maybe some hope for Darby.

[JoeMama]

EJ is one of the more frustrating QB's we've had in recent years because I see many legitimately positive qualities in the kid.

He has relative decent composure, his pocket presence is above average (my take, I know there will be disagreement on this), he shows good leadership, we've seen him come through in the clutch. He also has a decent arm.

But his primary weakness is the same one that may end his tenure in Buffalo and possibly the NFL.

I see a guy who's close to success in many ways, yet paradoxically may be cursed to failure by a singular pitfall -- no touch on intermediate/long routes.

And that's what hard about it. We've been waiting since 2000 for a franchise QB and EJ teases us with some decent upside, then hangs us out to dry with wild inaccuracy.

[Yasgur's Farm]

Here's the thing--beginning your post with "Bottom line" doesn't make it any less stupid or wrong. (Just FYI).Oh ... I absolutely understand you completely. What the hell was I thinking? I guess I'll just keep my opinions to myself so you don't have t read my stupid and wrong posts.

Thanks for your constructive and thread related post.

[Yasgur's Farm]

Now there's one self-proclaimed board expert who clearly doesn't know anything about QBs.See above post #39... So sorry I've burdened you with my worthless thoughts.

[better days]

EJ is one of the more frustrating QB's we've had in recent years because I see many legitimately positive qualities in the kid.

He has relative decent composure, his pocket presence is above average (my take, I know there will be disagreement on this), he shows good leadership, we've seen him come through in the clutch. He also has a decent arm.

But his primary weakness is the same one that may end his tenure in Buffalo and possibly the NFL.

I see a guy who's close to success in many ways, yet paradoxically may be cursed to failure by a singular pitfall -- no touch on intermediate/long routes.

And that's what hard about it. We've been waiting since 2000 for a franchise QB and EJ teases us with some decent upside, then hangs us out to dry with wild inaccuracy.

I am more concerned about EJ's inaccuracy on the short to intermediate throws than the long ball myself.

[Mr. Pink]

What we've seen out of EJ, so far, is less promising than what we saw out of JP...just being honest.

The only hope is it was the coaching staff who turned him into trash, since Orton looked very similar after a few weeks of being here, and Ryan and Roman can get him to play more to his potential.

If EJ is just what we've seen, then he'll be out of the NFL within a couple seasons.

[swiper]

See above post #39... So sorry I've burdened you with my worthless thoughts.

Gee that could have been my exact response to the stupid original post. I think wagon made his point.

[Yasgur's Farm]

Once again... Please accept my apology... I love you.

[JoeMama]

I am more concerned about EJ's inaccuracy on the short to intermediate throws than the long ball myself.

Why?

http://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/assets/4515659/Manuel_Inc_Reasons_Count_medium.JPG

The vast majority of his completions are the short stuff.

It's the rest where he falls off the chart pretty considerably.

[BillsImpossible]

Why?

http://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/assets/4515659/Manuel_Inc_Reasons_Count_medium.JPG

The vast majority of his completions are the short stuff.

It's the rest where he falls off the chart pretty considerably.

EJ fell off the chart quicker than the Roadrunner. His completion percentage for passes 10-14 yards or more is the writing on the wall.

The OP is right.

[BillsImpossible]

Looking at the graph, I wonder how 30% of EJ Manuel's throws that were less than 0 yards could be considered complete?

[Skooby]

EJ fell off the chart quicker than the Roadrunner. His completion percentage for passes 10-14 yards or more is the writing on the wall.

The OP is right.

I really don't want to be right but where are we going with this guy ?? He's been lost for a while now & we need to have potential starters to get their work in here. I already know how EJ is going to look, I watched the last-preseason & the first 4 games.

Area code accuracy, cruel but accurate truth.

[Skooby]

Looking at the graph, I wonder how 30% of EJ Manuel's throws that were less than 0 yards could be considered complete?

It looks like we have a freshman college QB according to these stats, it's just terrible.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Looking at the graph, I wonder how 30% of EJ Manuel's throws that were less than 0 yards could be considered complete?

The numbers on the side aren't percentages, they are raw stats. He threw what looks to be 40 passes behind the LOS, of which 30 were completed and about 10 were either dropped or missed throws.

[Mouldsie]

Blaine Gabbert is what I saw in college as well.

[Jimkelly12203]

Come on, we all saw it. He can't hit a target in stride. He was getting our WRs killed out there. There's an art to putting these guys on crossing patterns into a position where they don't get lit up at worst, and have space to run in the ideal scenario. You have to be able to pin point a throw to a place on the WRs body. Lebron James is a great passer, because he delivers the ball right where you need it to begin your shooting motion. The NFL is no different and EJ just doesn't have the ability to make accurate throws. Compounding matters, he may be plenty bright (he is) but he has not shown me that he has football acumen when the live bullets are flying. That can improve over time but we don't really have time. And you would think a player can improve accuracy with practice, but I can't think of any examples where that actually happened. He is what he is. EJ starting = entire WR core on the IR list. I hope i'm wrong but if we had to bet our lives on it, would anyone honestly say that EJ is going to turn it all around and become a franchise QB?