Spotrac contract prediction for Marcel Dareus: 5 years, $77.6 million, 36.47 gtd

[IlluminatusUIUC]

I would send champagne to Whaley's office if we got the deal done at those numbers, considering that deal Suh just signed.

http://www.spotrac.com/research/nfl/contract-forecast-marcell-dareus-515/

Value of the Contract
Our base contract figures provided a deal averaging just above $14.2M per season, a number that would rank him 3rd among all NFL defensive tackles (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/defensive-tackle/). When including our prime percentages (both of which he achieved positive values for), we're given the following:


Low Value (Hometown Discount)
Utilizing our Average Prime Percentage (+8.04%), we're provided with a contract averaging $15.3M per year, slightly less than McCoy's extension in Tampa (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/defensive-tackle/).
5 years, $76,893,706 | $15,378,741 per year | $36,293,829 guaranteed
Maximum Value
Utilizing our Median Prime Percentage (22.81%), we're provided with a contract averaging more than $18.8M per year - just less than Suh's deal in Miami.
5 years, $94,433,161 | $18,886,6325 per year | $44,572,451 guaranteed ...

The current Bills front office has shown that when they believe in a player, they'll front-load guaranteed money to make the deal work (see TE Charles Clay (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/charles-clay/) and DE Jerry Hughes (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/jerry-hughes/)). While the reliability of Dareus may be a concern, he's a hard position to replace at his age & skill-level. With that being said, he simply hasn't shown that he's as valuable to his team on an individual basis (nor consistently statistically productive) as McCoy or Suh over the past two seasons. For this reason, Dareus' true value should lean more on the Low Value, rather than the Maximum

[YardRat]

I'm guessing it's closer to the maximum.

[The Jokeman]

I would send champagne to Whaley's office if we got the deal done at those numbers, considering that deal Suh just signed.

http://www.spotrac.com/research/nfl/contract-forecast-marcell-dareus-515/

I don't get why they think he'll make less than McCoy. As they've played almost the same amount of games but McCoy has been in the league one more season yet their stats are almost identical except Dareus has a few more sacks, tackles and is a bigger player. Granted Tampa hasn't had the surrounding cast that we have but the debate is Dareus a product of the players around him or are they a product of him? I imagine it's a little bit of both. Call me a homer but Dareus as a better player than McCoy. Toss in most agents strive for their players to get the most money especially as good as Dareus as he was arguably the best DT in the NFL last season. Getting less than Suh makes some sense if count the hometown discount but don't expect it to much lower than Suh.

[jimmifli]

I expect he'll get a deal that's bigger than Suh's by a little but in real terms it'll be a little less. So a touch less guaranteed money, a touch more total contract value.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

I don't get why they think he'll make less than McCoy. As they've played almost the same amount of games but McCoy has been in the league one more season yet their stats are almost identical except Dareus has a few more sacks, tackles and is a bigger player.

Both the "Dareus is partially a product of his teammates" angle and "Dareus has character red flags" angle.

Personally I don't think either of those will wash, he'll get close to Suh's deal and deserves it.

[swiper]

You can't keep paying DTs this kind of money. It's unsustainable.

[k-oneputt]

Well they can pay this dt and they better do it.
Plays at that position, at that skill level and at that age are hard to find, and the Bills have one.
They all feed off of each other but he is the kingpin imo. He is the one making everyone around him better.
Just look at what happened last year in Oakland when he went down.
He is a must sign and I don't care how they do it or who they have to let walk.

[SpikedLemonade]

I expect he'll get a deal that's bigger than Suh's by a little but in real terms it'll be a little less. So a touch less guaranteed money, a touch more total contract value.

I agree.

There is no such thing as a hometown discount in professional sports.

[X-Era]

I agree.

There is no such thing as a hometown discount in professional sports.Cough...Brady...cough

[X-Era]

I'm guessing it's closer to the maximum.I'm fine with it if we can manage to keep the cap hit at 7-8 mill for the first year.

[DynaPaul]

Cough...Brady...cough

That's because he knows he'll look like the 6th round draft pick he is anywhere else outside of New England.

[TacklingDummy]

He disappeared the 2nd half of the season. No where near worth Suh.

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He disappeared the 2nd half of the season. No where near worth Suh.

[gr8slayer]

He'll get more than that.

[Ingtar33]

if he gets to the probowl again, it will be +$100mil

especially since he's a better pass rusher then Suh is

[Uncle Jesse]

It's gonna have to be 100 million plus.

[yordad]

That's because he knows he'll look like the 6th round draft pick he is anywhere else outside of New England.
Or they paid him under the table.

[Strongman]

I think there's a good chance his contract could exceed Suh's simply because he's every bit as good a player and doesn't come with as much baggage Suh brings. Let's face it, Suh is probably another dirty play away from getting a nice long suspension.

[DraftBoy]

He'll be the highest paid DT in the NFL when its all said and done and he's worth every penny. Whaley has to get this done, no matter what.

[OpIv37]

So long, and thanks for all the shoes.

No way the Bills can afford him under the cap with all the spending this off-season.

[TacklingDummy]

So long, and thanks for all the shoes.

No way the Bills can afford him under the cap with all the spending this off-season.

Not to mention Quartebacks when Super Bowls, DT do not.

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He'll be the highest paid DT in the NFL when its all said and done and he's worth every penny. Whaley has to get this done, no matter what.
Lol

[YardRat]

QB's are by-and-large one-and-done winning Super Bowls unless the have a great defense (Ben R), are opportunistic (E.Manning) or a lying, cheating douchebag (Brady).

[IlluminatusUIUC]

QB's are by-and-large one-and-done winning Super Bowls unless the have a great defense (Ben R), are opportunistic (E.Manning) or a lying, cheating douchebag (Brady).

Most teams are by and large one-and-done winning Super Bowls period. Winning multiple NFL titles is one of the hardest feats in sports. That doesn't change that the teams who are constantly fighting for the Super Bowls are the ones led by franchise QBs.

[Ed]

As long as this team doesn't have a franchise qb making big money, then you might as well spend big on the DL. The Dareus deal will get done, but they won't be players in free agency next season. If they have to trim costs from the DL in the future than it will have to come from cutting Mario or Kyle. Dareus is only 25 years old. He's the most important D-lineman we have for the long term.

[BertSquirtgum]

He is a goner. We need to sign Phil Rivers next year anyway. He will be the key to winning a Super Bowl.

[Luisito23]

LOL...Dareus isn't going anywhere.

[Buffalogic]

Remember how popular the idea that Dareus was a bust the year his brother got murdered? It was absolutely laughable.

[swiper]

Remember how popular the idea that Dareus was a bust the year his brother got murdered? It was absolutely laughable.

Stick to your bubble gum and comic books. The grown-ups are talking here.

[Buffalogic]

So clever. Swiper you are just so smart man. So original.

[swiper]

So clever. Swiper you are just so smart man. So original.


The town simpleton could tie you up for hours. I have that beaten, so yeah. Don't go away mad. Just go away. You continue to embarass yourself every time you post.

[Buffalogic]

^What?

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Incoherent man.

[YardRat]

Most teams are by and large one-and-done winning Super Bowls period. Winning multiple NFL titles is one of the hardest feats in sports. That doesn't change that the teams who are constantly fighting for the Super Bowls are the ones led by franchise QBs.

Fair enough, that's a valid point. A good-to-great QB will get a team through the regular season and into the dance more often than not.

[OpIv37]

Remember how popular the idea that Dareus was a bust the year his brother got murdered? It was absolutely laughable.

Fair enough.

Still doesn't mean the Bills can fit him under the cap.

[Buffalogic]

^ Definitely will be challenging. We'll see if he gives a discount.

[X-Era]

QB's are by-and-large one-and-done winning Super Bowls unless the have a great defense (Ben R), are opportunistic (E.Manning) or a lying, cheating douchebag (Brady).
:clap:

[X-Era]

So long, and thanks for all the shoes.

No way the Bills can afford him under the cap with all the spending this off-season.The cap is getting full, I agree. However, we have Marios hit of 19 mill that Whaley has already identified as a spot where we could get some room if it's re-worked. And, we probably will drop a few vets like Chris Williams and others.

Dareus can fit under the cap. Whens the last time the Bills or moreover Whaley has said they had to make tough choices for cap reasons?

[Novacane]

Tag and trade

[k-oneputt]

Tag and keep.

If they can't keep him because of cap/money then they should have let Hughes walk then.

Dareus>Hughes It's not even close really.

[JoeMama]

QB's are by-and-large one-and-done winning Super Bowls unless the have a great defense (Ben R), are opportunistic (E.Manning) or a lying, cheating douchebag (Brady).

Well since having a great D isn't even enough to get us into the playoffs, I'd say your options all suck.

And we don't have an opportunistic QB or a cheating QB either (as far as I know).

QB is the most important position on the field. Downplaying its importance is stupid.

We could literally be top 5 in rushing and top 5 in defense and still not make the playoffs (like the Jaguars did a few years ago).