NFL schedulers love Bengals, hate Bills.

[OpIv37]

It's not just paranoia. We really do face more teams coming off extended rest than anyone else.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/early-lead/wp/2015/06/29/science-says-nfl-schedule-makers-hate-the-bills-love-the-bengals/

[better days]

Pegula has started to exert some influence in the NHL.

Lets hope he can do the same in the NFL in short order.

[Joe Fo Sho]

http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/229170-Teams-that-have-extra-time-to-prepare-for-us?highlight=


Week 2 - Patriots (Play Thursday week 1)
Week 4 - Giants (Play Thursday week 3)
Week 5 - Titans (Bye week 4)
Week 9 - Dolphins (Play Thursday week 8, but we're coming off a bye this week)
Week 16 - Cowboys (Play Saturday week 15)


There are 5 games we play this year where our opponents have more time than usually to prepare for us, and of course one of those teams is New England (We get extra time when we play them later in the season). While it sucks that stuff like this happens, it has to happen to somebody. No excuses, play like a champion.

[JoeMama]

It's not just paranoia. We really do face more teams coming off extended rest than anyone else.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/early-lead/wp/2015/06/29/science-says-nfl-schedule-makers-hate-the-bills-love-the-bengals/

Interesting.

Now that the franchise as filed a formal complain about this issue, will the NFL make any adjustments for the sake of parity?

My guess is no since Roger Goodell is only concerned with name QB's like Marsha, Marsha, Marsha, and saving his own ass from all the **** he's constantly screwing up.

He has such enormous image problems to overcome, I highly doubt he does much of anything to improve the sport of football in anyway shape or form.

[better days]

http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/229170-Teams-that-have-extra-time-to-prepare-for-us?highlight=



There are 5 games we play this year where our opponents have more time than usually to prepare for us, and of course one of those teams is New England (We get extra time when we play them later in the season). While it sucks that stuff like this happens, it has to happen to somebody. No excuses, play like a champion.

It is a proven FACT, teams with extra time off fare better & are harder to win against.

And when the Bills do get extra time off against the Fins, it is negated somewhat because they play on Thursday the week before.

The Bills schedule SUCKS.

[OpIv37]

http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/229170-Teams-that-have-extra-time-to-prepare-for-us?highlight=



There are 5 games we play this year where our opponents have more time than usually to prepare for us, and of course one of those teams is New England (We get extra time when we play them later in the season). While it sucks that stuff like this happens, it has to happen to somebody. No excuses, play like a champion.

In any given season, some teams are going to be hit harder on this than others. And sometimes it'll be our turn to be one of those teams. I get that.

But it's been proven that the extra rest gives teams a competitive advantage, and it's been working against us since 2002. Why should the Bengals almost never play teams with extra rest while we have to do it 3-5 times a season? It's probably impossible I make it 100% equal, but the league has to do something so it's not so lopsided.

[Joe Fo Sho]

It is a proven FACT, teams with extra time off fare better & are harder to win against.

And when the Bills do get extra time off against the Fins, it is negated somewhat because they play on Thursday the week before.

The Bills schedule SUCKS.

If the Bills don't make the playoffs, it won't be because of the schedule.

[OpIv37]

If the Bills don't make the playoffs, it won't be because of the schedule.

Yeah? What if we lose two games to more rested team by less than 1 score and then miss the playoffs by one game? It can't be blamed completely on the schedule but you can't realistically deny that the schedule was a factor.

[Joe Fo Sho]

Yeah? What if we lose two games to more rested team by less than 1 score and then miss the playoffs by one game? It can't be blamed completely on the schedule but you can't realistically deny that the schedule was a factor.

The article you posted states that an engineering professor noted a statistical anomaly of 4% in favor of teams with extra rest. This would mean that 4 games out of every 100 games where the Bills play a team with extra rest we lose when we should have actually won. If we play...let's say 5 games against teams with extra rest per season, that equates to 1 extra loss every 5 years. If you take into account the fact that we have games with extra rest 2 times per season (which is the minimum for a bye week and Thursday night game), then that number changes to 1 extra loss every 8.333 years.

If you take the Bills recent history of ineptitude into account, with the fact that we're rarely 1 game out of the playoffs, you could argue that this scheduling has actually helped us get better through the draft when we have that extra loss. Maybe we should've gone 4-12 instead of 3-13 and we never would've had a shot at drafting Dareus. It's a ridiculous example, but who the hell knows.

The sample size for this article (2009-2013) is not big enough, in my opinion, to really hold water anyway. Still though, I'm not going to get all up in arms over a possibility that we've lost 1 game over the last 8 years that we should've won because of our opponents extra rest. We blow games for 100 other reasons besides that as I'm sure you know.

[Mr. Pink]

People love to overstate how much the bye week gives an advantage to the resting team.

It's pretty irrelevant to be honest.

http://walterfootball.com/betting_bye.php

Teams coming off a bye are 167-156. A 51.7% winning percentage.

[better days]

If the Bills don't make the playoffs, it won't be because of the schedule.

If the Bills don't make the playoffs, it well could be because of the schedule.

The "I want Brady to play so we can beat the best" is the same type of crazy BS thinking.

The difference between making the playoffs or not could well come down to ONE GAME.

A game Brady plays in when he was supposed to be suspended or a game against a team like Giants or Cowboys with extra rest could well be the difference between the playoffs or no playoffs.

[better days]

People love to overstate how much the bye week gives an advantage to the resting team.

It's pretty irrelevant to be honest.

http://walterfootball.com/betting_bye.php

Teams coming off a bye are 167-156. A 51.7% winning percentage.

51.7% is a WINNING percentage for those that do not understand that.

In other words it MATTERS.

People say the Patriots didn't have to cheat.

Well, they CHEATED for that SMALL ADVANTAGE it gave them.

[Joe Fo Sho]

If the Bills don't make the playoffs, it well could be because of the schedule.

The "I want Brady to play so we can beat the best" is the same type of crazy BS thinking.

The difference between making the playoffs or not could well come down to ONE GAME.

A game Brady plays in when he was supposed to be suspended or a game against a team like Giants or Cowboys with extra rest could well be the difference between the playoffs or no playoffs.

Well you can go ahead and blame the schedule makers if the Bills miss the playoffs by one game. I'll blame the play on the field.

[better days]

Well you can go ahead and blame the schedule makers if the Bills miss the playoffs by one game. I'll blame the play on the field.

You can blame that if you want.

But the fact is a number of teams have gotten to the Super Bowl in large part because they had an EASY schedule.

[Joe Fo Sho]

51.7% is a WINNING percentage for those that do not understand that.

So it effects 1.7 out of every 100 games. That is about 1 game per team every 10-15 years, for those that do not understand that.

[Joe Fo Sho]

You can blame that if you want.

But the fact is a number of teams have gotten to the Super Bowl in large part because they had an EASY schedule.

Those teams got to the Super Bowl because they beat the teams on their schedule, just like every other Super Bowl participant.

A larger number of teams, in fact, have not made the Super Bowl with an easy schedule if you want to talk numbers.

[better days]

Those teams got to the Super Bowl because they beat the teams on their schedule, just like every other Super Bowl participant.

A larger number of teams, in fact, have not made the Super Bowl with an easy schedule if you want to talk numbers.

Of course a larger number of teams with an easy schedule have not made the Super Bowl than have DUH!

If you want to talk numbers, only TWO teams make the Super Bowl every year.

[OpIv37]

You can blame that if you want.

But the fact is a number of teams have gotten to the Super Bowl in large part because they had an EASY schedule.

That has more to do with luck though. Look at the Patriots. Their schedule is easy because they're in the AFCE, and the Bills, Jets and Dolphins have been giant cluster****s for the last 15 years, save maybe 2 or 3 years for each team. Meanwhile, divisions like the NFCE and AFCN have at least two good teams every year, often 3.

You can criticize the Pats for having easy regular season schedules in all their SB appearances, and you'd be right. But the truth is the Pats can't control how good or bad the rest of the division is.

[better days]

That has more to do with luck though. Look at the Patriots. Their schedule is easy because they're in the AFCE, and the Bills, Jets and Dolphins have been giant cluster****s for the last 15 years, save maybe 2 or 3 years for each team. Meanwhile, divisions like the NFCE and AFCN have at least two good teams every year, often 3.

You can criticize the Pats for having easy regular season schedules in all their SB appearances, and you'd be right. But the truth is the Pats can't control how good or bad the rest of the division is.

I agree the Pats* couldn't control how BAD the AFC has been while they DOMINATED it.

Yet in spite of how BAD the AFC East has been & the EASY schedule that meant for the Pats*, they chose to CHEAT to give themselves even more of an advantage no matter how slight.

[Night Train]

Cinci will get a playoff spot.

Then lose in the 1st round like always. Dalton and Matt Ryan continue to fight it out for most overrated QB in the NFL.

[better days]

Cinci will get a playoff spot.

Then lose in the 1st round like always. Dalton and Matt Ryan continue to fight it out for most overrated QB in the NFL.

Well, to be overrated, you have to be highly thought of.

That could be the case with Ryan, Dalton not so much.

Who REALLY thinks HIGHLY of Dalton?

But I would be happy to have either of them on the Bills.

[Joe Fo Sho]

Of course a larger number of teams with an easy schedule have not made the Super Bowl than have DUH!

If you want to talk numbers, only TWO teams make the Super Bowl every year.

Yeah, and the 2 weeks worth of pregame shows are constantly bringing up the strength of schedule for each team..

[Night Train]

Well, to be overrated, you have to be highly thought of.

That could be the case with Ryan, Dalton not so much.

Who REALLY thinks HIGHLY of Dalton?

But I would be happy to have either of them on the Bills.

Dalton signed a 6 year deal for 115 Mil.
Ryan 5 years 103 Mil.

Obviously, their teams think they are elite. I see fools gold.

[Joe Fo Sho]

Dalton signed a 6 year deal for 115 Mil.
Ryan 5 years 103 Mil.

Obviously, their teams think they are elite. I see fools gold.

Well regardless of if they're overrated or not, the Bengals and Falcons had no other options. They had to pay them that money or they'd end up like the Bills. Clearly teams are willing to pay $100 million to not have our QB situation and I can't blame them.

I think Dalton is the definition of average when it comes to QBs, and I would not be mad at that contract if I was a Bengals fan.

[Mr. Pink]

51.7% is a WINNING percentage for those that do not understand that.

In other words it MATTERS.

People say the Patriots didn't have to cheat.

Well, they CHEATED for that SMALL ADVANTAGE it gave them.

Games are relatively 50-50, I'm sure you would agree. Correct?

I say relatively because say 10 years ago the Pats coming off a bye and playing the Bills or not coming off a bye and playing them made absolutely no difference. Same as today if the Broncos came off the bye to play the Jaguars or didn't come off the bye.

A 1.7% difference against 50-50 is absolutely meaningless.

[better days]

Games are relatively 50-50, I'm sure you would agree. Correct?

I say relatively because say 10 years ago the Pats coming off a bye and playing the Bills or not coming off a bye and playing them made absolutely no difference. Same as today if the Broncos came off the bye to play the Jaguars or didn't come off the bye.

A 1.7% difference against 50-50 is absolutely meaningless.

Well, I disagree that 1.7% is meaningless.

If you win 51.7% of the time in Vegas, you go home a winner with money in your pocket.

If you win 48.3% you go home a loser, out money.

[BertSquirtgum]

Who cares. The better team should win no matter what.

[feldspar]

This is one of the aspects I check first after the schedule is released.

I remember the Bills played the Patriots after the Patriots' bye-week something like four years in a row. Who needs that? Hard enough as it is.

I used to know all the details about how horrible it was that the Bills played teams on extra rest, but I've forgotten. But it was routinely ridiculous.

[OpIv37]

This is one of the aspects I check first after the schedule is released.

I remember the Bills played the Patriots after the Patriots' bye-week something like four years in a row. Who needs that? Hard enough as it is.

I used to know all the details about how horrible it was that the Bills played teams on extra rest, but I've forgotten. But it was routinely ridiculous.

And someone said it's only a 4% increase in wins for the Patriots, but that's league wide. Bellicheck has an impeccable record after his byes, so it puts us at a huge disadvantage when they have the extra week.

[better days]

Who cares. The better team should win no matter what.

That is not really true.

Hence the phrase "On any given Sunday" became a lexacon.

The better team at times plays below their normal level while a bad team at times plays over their heads.

The Bills last year won over the Packers & Patriots*.

The Bills last year lost to the Raiders.

If what you say is true, the Raiders are a BETTER team than the Packers & Patriots*.

[trapezeus]

People love to overstate how much the bye week gives an advantage to the resting team.

It's pretty irrelevant to be honest.

http://walterfootball.com/betting_bye.php

Teams coming off a bye are 167-156. A 51.7% winning percentage.

vegas calls that the edge

[Strongman]

I think it's a little more nuanced than what WalterFootball makes it out to be:

http://community.advancednflstats.com/2009/10/bye-weeks.html

[psubills62]

People love to overstate how much the bye week gives an advantage to the resting team.

It's pretty irrelevant to be honest.

http://walterfootball.com/betting_bye.php

Teams coming off a bye are 167-156. A 51.7% winning percentage.
I'm no betting man, but that record is ATS. Not a straight-up W-L record. Correct me if I'm wrong...

[gebobs]

Never have bought into this. If there's an effect, it is small, so small that it isn't going to have any effect at all on good teams. In fact, one could argue that good teams that get a lot of prime time games are handicapped by the disruption to the schedule rhythm.

Let's look at a scatter plot of all games in 2014 where one team had more days off than the other. The x-axis is the difference in the number of days between starts, positive indicates the home team has more, negative indicates a road team advantage. The y-axis is the score differential, home score less road score.

17434

If more days off gives an advantage, one would expect at least some trend from the lower left to the upper right. However, the trend is nearly flat and even has a slightly negative correlation.

Forget about schedule whining. Nobody gave a **** about the schedule when we were winning championships. Schedule whining is for losers.

[better days]

Never have bought into this. If there's an effect, it is small, so small that it isn't going to have any effect at all on good teams. In fact, one could argue that good teams that get a lot of prime time games are handicapped by the disruption to the schedule rhythm.

Let's look at a scatter plot of all games in 2014 where one team had more days off than the other. The x-axis is the difference in the number of days between starts, positive indicates the home team has more, negative indicates a road team advantage. The y-axis is the score differential, home score less road score.

17434

If more days off gives an advantage, one would expect at least some trend from the lower left to the upper right. However, the trend is nearly flat and even has a slightly negative correlation.

Forget about schedule whining. Nobody gave a **** about the schedule when we were winning championships. Schedule whining is for losers.

You are one of the biggest whiners on this board when it comes to the Bills.

[gebobs]

You are one of the biggest whiners on this board when it comes to the Bills.

Is that a fact? Well, golly gee, you sure showed me the error of my logic.

That's it everyone. Close the thread. The NFL is to blame for the Bills epic run of fail.

[gebobs]

Here's something else for you to chew on. Something that hits a bit closer to home. Last year, the Bills played four games in which one team had a rest advantage...

Bills @ Jets: Jets had three extra days rest and we clobbered them by 20 points.
KC @ Bills: Bills came off their bye, laid an egg, and kissed their playoff hopes goodbye.
Jets @ Bills: This time with four extra days rest, the Jets stunk up the Ralph and lost by 35.
GB @ Bills: The Bills used an extra day to their advantage, beating the Pack by 8.

Small sample size, fer sure, but for what it's worth, it hardly supports your premise.

[better days]

Here's something else for you to chew on. Something that hits a bit closer to home. Last year, the Bills played four games in which one team had a rest advantage...

Bills @ Jets: Jets had three extra days rest and we clobbered them by 20 points.
KC @ Bills: Bills came off their bye, laid an egg, and kissed their playoff hopes goodbye.
Jets @ Bills: This time with four extra days rest, the Jets stunk up the Ralph and lost by 35.
GB @ Bills: The Bills used an extra day to their advantage, beating the Pack by 8.

Small sample size, fer sure, but for what it's worth, it hardly supports your premise.

Why go with your small sample size?

The people that wrote the report have a MUCH larger sample size.

And they have proved extra time off is ADVANTAGEOUS.

[better days]

Is that a fact? Well, golly gee, you sure showed me the error of my logic.

That's it everyone. Close the thread. The NFL is to blame for the Bills epic run of fail.

We are not talking about logic, we are talking about your constant whining about the Bills.

[gebobs]

We are not talking about logic, we are talking about your constant whining about the Bills.

I know! I am so envious of that #1 Bills Fan t-shirt that your mom had made for you!

[gebobs]

Why go with your small sample size?

The people that wrote the report have a MUCH larger sample size.

And they have proved extra time off is ADVANTAGEOUS.
One win over like 10 years is zero advantage. The Bills are missing the playoffs by multiple games!

[better days]

One win over like 10 years is zero advantage. The Bills are missing the playoffs by multiple games!

Well, this entire post by you is BS.

And more of your whining about the Bills.

[gebobs]

Well, this entire post by you is BS.
That's your argument? The Zone equivalent of "nuh uh"? Pathetic.


And more of your whining about the Bills.

OK #1 fan! I am properly chastised by you and let me tell you it hurts! Someone please get me a tissue. Jesus, what the feck? Are you in third grade?

This advantage you are talking about is a fraction of a game on average. Less than half a game, less than a quarter of a game. That's a fact. Care to guess how many times over the past 15 years have the Bills come within even one game of the playoffs? Go check it out for yourself if you don't believe me. One year. One stinking year out of the last 15 have they come within one game of even possibly making the playoffs.

And that was last year. And as I showed, last year there was no correlation league wide. As I showed, last year there was a negative correlation for the Bills.

A certain prince from Denmark said something which I think is pertinent to this idea:

It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

[better days]

That's your argument? The Zone equivalent of "nuh uh"? Pathetic.



OK #1 fan! I am properly chastised by you and let me tell you it hurts! Someone please get me a tissue. Jesus, what the feck? Are you in third grade?

This advantage you are talking about is a fraction of a game on average. Less than half a game, less than a quarter of a game. That's a fact. Care to guess how many times over the past 15 years have the Bills come within even one game of the playoffs? Go check it out for yourself if you don't believe me. One year. One stinking year out of the last 15 have they come within one game of even possibly making the playoffs.

And that was last year. And as I showed, last year there was no correlation league wide. As I showed, last year there was a negative correlation for the Bills.

A certain prince from Denmark said something which I think is pertinent to this idea:

It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

Well, your argument is ridiculous.

The guys from UB that did that study are no doubt much smarter than YOU.

IDIOT.