Nate Silver - ELO week 2 Predictions and playoff probabilities -

[trapezeus]

Sorry, still not about Electric Light Orchestra

NAte Silver had the bills at week 1 as a 43% chance of making playoffs. After predictions of 52% probility that the bills would beat the colts, he has now moved the bills playoff chances to 50%. Also ranked the 10th team in its ranking system.

As for the pats game, he has the bills at a 43% probability of winning.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/

[Dr. Lecter]

43%!!!!

Coastal will be giddy!

[Ed]

The Bills average simulated win total for the season also jumped up to 9.6 this week from 8.8 last week. The Pats and Broncos are the only two AFC teams with higher win totals.

All the future weeks have current projected win probabilities too. Obviously those will change after each week, but right now the Bills have a win probability greater than 50% in 10 of their remaining 15 games.

Based on all those current percentages, the projected division winners would be New England, Cincy, Indy, and Denver, with Buffalo and KC making the playoffs as wildcards. I know it's only week 1, but it will be interesting to see how things play out.

[Dr. Lecter]

And Op will say it's 44% too high

[gebobs]

http://knickswag.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/lloyd.png

[Skooby]

Bills have a 100% chance of maybe winning.

[jamze132]

We just need to go 9-6 the rest of the way!

[trapezeus]

i like his rankings as it has a quantified historical look back and doesn't get too wrapped up in early momentum swings. if you are a team with 5 great games but traditionally losers over 5 years, the swing up is less meaningful.

i just assume these power rankings and probabilities are better than someone like Peter King who just writes well and knows contacts, but really is as clueless as any other fan. therefore on reporters power rankings, teams can jump 10 spots just because they are feeling it and drop others because they just don't cover the team.

[psubills62]

Bills had the second largest ELO score increase to Tennessee.

[jimmifli]

I still like ELO's prediction better:

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