week 3: Nate Silver ELO model

[trapezeus]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/

Going into week 3: Bills predicted to end with 9 wins (8.7) and the playoff chances decreased from 50% last week to 39%. and we remain ranked #11 in the league.

[Night Train]

http://www.williamsburgfamilies.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Roller-coaster-image-only-revised.jpg

[MillsapsBillsFan]

Miami is the favorite according to that? Seems strange

[The Jokeman]

Miami is the favorite according to that? Seems strange

The Dolphins beat us last year and now many feel they have a better defense and it's Tyrod's "3rd" NFL start but first one on the road. It makes sense to put as an underdog, yet as said previously this is a winnable game and we need to win it to put us in the discussion of playoff caliber teams.

[trapezeus]

they are weighing a number of factors into this including what i believe is a 5 year look back on the history of the team. the bills have blown a couple games in miami. we've lost to weak miami teams and miami has lost to weak buffalo teams in the last 15 years.

to ensure that last week was just the normal beating from the pats, the bills need to right this ship. if they lose here, it's a real difficult climb to a wildcard. i would expect our playoff % to plummet.

we have going for us that suh seems to be a huge distraction and running his own defense. That's a positive. we are realtively healthy, and i do think that TT is going to look more composed and that the team is going to find a way to run the ball more effectively.