Why this Defense isn't Working

[Mahdi]

Just through observation using the all 22 film IMO the reason this D isn't working is because Rex is trying to marry two different styles of defense. He is trying to combine exotic blitzes and drops from defensive lineman with a base 4-3 defense.

Rex is not doing what he normally does and is not setting up his D the way he normally has it.

Let's use the Jets and Ravens as an example...

With the Jets he had a front 3 of ---- Wilkerson -- Harrison --- Richardson then he had a traditional 4 linebacker set up behind that and was very creative with who he brought and who he dropped.

With the Ravens he had Trevor Pryce - Ngata - Douglas --- Ngata being the two gapping player.

Today with the Bills when you look at the setup it's more a 4-3 than a 3-4. Sometimes he has Dareus playing over the center but mainly it looks quite different than a typical Rex defense.

If Rex wants to succeed he's going to have to choose one system and commit to it fully. Either pure 46 or go back to a 4-3 wide 9.

Right now he can start with a lineup of Bryant - Charles - Dareus ----- WIth Mario and Hughes outside and Brown and Bradham inside. Charles can play the nose.

From that point Rex can begin to call the defense the way he is used to.

[JohnnyGold]

This defense "isn't working" because this defense never has worked--period.
I don't care what Buffalo was "ranked" last season by some bloggers who sit around and create meaningless matrices that compare defenses across eras. When it comes to the NFL, statistical regressions are pointless: teams play too few games against too many differing opponents. You can't rank team A against team B unless it's within a division, and the only real stats that matter are points allowed.

Here's a very simple table I put together in excel this morning with my cup of coffee to highlight this point.
Reading across, it shows the year, the team with the fewest points allowed that season, the amount of points they allowed per game, and where buffalo stacked up against that number.


<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup><tbody>
2005
chicago
13
buffalo
23



2006
baltimore
13
buffalo
19



2007
indianapolis
16
buffalo
22



2008
pittsburgh
14
buffalo
21



2009
jets
15
buffalo
20



2010
pittsburgh
15
buffalo
27



2011
pittsburgh
14
buffalo
27
dareus


2012
seattle
15
buffalo
27
mario


2013
seattle
14
buffalo
24



2014
seattle
16
buffalo
18



2015
jets
15
buffalo
23


</tbody>


Please note 3 things:
* the last time the Bills has a defense that was consistently closer to the best was the Dick Jauron era.
* the use of a top pick on Dareus, and breaking the bank on Mario Williams (essentially, focusing on the d line) directly correlated with Buffalo experiencing a SIGNIFICANT uptick in points allowed per game
* last year's defense looks amazing compared to everything. A true statistical outlier! Were the Bills that much better on defense?

Again, I'm not going to use some ridiculous 538/nate silver/dvoa/football outsiders regression to explain how "great" the Bills were last year.
It's football. It's 300 lb men running into each other at 25mph for 3 hours once a week.
Let's use common sense, and look at the teams Buffalo played last year, and how those teams stacked up in offensive output, by using the simplest of stats: points scored per game. Below are Buffalos 2014 opponents, with their league rank in PPG:


<colgroup><col width="64" span="2" style="width:48pt"> </colgroup><tbody>
patriots
1


packers
5


jets
7


browns
12


broncos
13


chargers
15


raiders
20


texans
21


chiefs
22


dolphins
24


bears
26


lions
27


vikings
29

</tbody>

Please note 2 things:
* Half of our games were played against the bottom offenses in the league
and
* agsinst the top offenses in the league, the Bills allowed:
37 points to the Patriots; 24 points to the Broncos; 23 points to the Jets.

So even with last season's AMAZING defense (which still isn't even close to being equally as good as any of the top defenses from the last decade of professional football) the Bills still got pushed around by top offenses, still finished 9-7, and still have done diddly since Mario and Dareus got here.

People want to "solve" the problem?

Let Rex gut this outstanding, world class, untouchable, elite, pro bowl defense, and start over.

They haven't won anything, they've never been close to the best in terms of points allowed per game, and until this team finds a QB it is wasting resources on an antiquated model of jamming the line, which good QBs continue to pick apart by throwing quick passes and exposing our sub par linebackers for what they are.

Also, please note Rex's AFC-championship game defense on the list of top defenses in the league in 2009, which he accomplished with Mark Sanchez at QB.

Maybe the "problem" with the defense is the defense, and the idiot fans that think it's better than it actually is, and not the coach with credentials.

Let's run Mario and his contract out of town before the coach.

[Meathead]

well its obvious why they are dropping linemen into coverage, its bc they were getting gashed on four yard passes that come out in two seconds and NOT getting to the qb

really before that miracle rainbow rusty threw into double coverage that somehow trickled through the maze of arms into the wrs gullet they were doing pretty well. if that gift from god doesnt happen the bills get the ball back with the chance to take the lead. after that it seemed like the bills collapsed which isnt good but they had been doing pretty well keeping the bengals in check and were in the game

if teams are gonna throw four yard passed in the blink of an eye all game you cant just stand there and let them do it. shouting unleash the pass rush isnt going to do squat. fortunately the string of vgood qbs has come to an end so that challenge will be much reduced going forward and most likely they wont need to have the fat guys playing short zone

[Forward_Lateral]

You just said that last year's defense wasn't that good, but showed they allowed 18 ppg, which was 4th in the NFL, 2nd in the AFC.

I didn't read anything after that because you already proved yourself wrong.

[JohnnyGold]

You just said that last year's defense wasn't that good, but showed they allowed 18 ppg, which was 4th in the NFL, 2nd in the AFC.

I didn't read anything after that because you already proved yourself wrong.

ZING!
POW!
BAM!

Another one of Buffalo's Mensa-level fans.

Buffalo: where not reading is seen as an insult to others.

[malvado78]

...

<tbody>
2005
chicago
13
buffalo
23



2006
baltimore
13
buffalo
19



2007
indianapolis
16
buffalo
22



2008
pittsburgh
14
buffalo
21



2009
jets
15
buffalo
20



2010
pittsburgh
15
buffalo
27



2011

pittsburgh
14
buffalo
27
dareus



2012
seattle
15
buffalo
27
mario


2013
seattle
14
buffalo
24



2014
seattle
16
buffalo
18



2015
jets
15
buffalo
23


</tbody>


Please note 3 things:
* the last time the Bills has a defense that was consistently closer to the best was the Dick Jauron era.
* the use of a top pick on Dareus, and breaking the bank on Mario Williams (essentially, focusing on the d line) directly correlated with Buffalo experiencing a SIGNIFICANT uptick in points allowed per game
* last year's defense looks amazing compared to everything. A true statistical outlier! Were the Bills that much better on defense?


I do no see an uptick. 27 points in 2011 and 2012 when Mario and Dareus were picked up. Then 24, 18 the next two years.

27 is greater than 24 and 18...

[EDS]

Just through observation using the all 22 film IMO the reason this D isn't working is because Rex is trying to marry two different styles of defense. He is trying to combine exotic blitzes and drops from defensive lineman with a base 4-3 defense.

Rex is not doing what he normally does and is not setting up his D the way he normally has it.

Let's use the Jets and Ravens as an example...

With the Jets he had a front 3 of ---- Wilkerson -- Harrison --- Richardson then he had a traditional 4 linebacker set up behind that and was very creative with who he brought and who he dropped.

With the Ravens he had Trevor Pryce - Ngata - Douglas --- Ngata being the two gapping player.

Today with the Bills when you look at the setup it's more a 4-3 than a 3-4. Sometimes he has Dareus playing over the center but mainly it looks quite different than a typical Rex defense.

If Rex wants to succeed he's going to have to choose one system and commit to it fully. Either pure 46 or go back to a 4-3 wide 9.

Right now he can start with a lineup of Bryant - Charles - Dareus ----- WIth Mario and Hughes outside and Brown and Bradham inside. Charles can play the nose.

From that point Rex can begin to call the defense the way he is used to.

So the defense is not working because Rex is using the wrong scheme and the solution is putting Bryant and Charles into the starting line-up? Comforting.

[GreedoII]

some of these payers are dumb too...ala Duke/Rambo/A.Williams....block heads..Hughes is pretty dumb too....

[Mahdi]

So the defense is not working because Rex is using the wrong scheme and the solution is putting Bryant and Charles into the starting line-up? Comforting.

Why not? They have to be first round picks?

We need guys to grind and clog up holes as Marcus Harrison was doing for the Jets last year and this year. The other guys can focus on making plays.

[Topas]

Johnnygold, I really appreciate your work. You put a lot of thoughts into that.

A few comments.

1) You first say that you will not use complex formulae that does weight different things like DVOA. Then you go and you do exactly that. You look at the defense ranking and then look at the offenses they faced. This is pretty much exactly what DVOA does. And DVOA ranked our D as second best last year. But DVOA has one more important aspect. See my next comment.

2) you say: 'the only real stats that matter are points allowed'
That's wrong. Your D does allow a lot less points if you have the Patriots offense as counterpart than you have the 'three-and-out' Bills offense as counterpart. Mostly because of time of possession. And the same holds true for the rankings of the opposing Offenses. Some of their rankings might be inflated or deflated (no pun intended) because of their respective defense.

So actually I think DVOA is quite good and you mentioned on your own the reasons why that is.

By the way, this years D is ranked 10th currently at DVOA. But one have to consider that the opponent adjustments are not yet that conclusive because we are only in week 6.
So the D is not that bad, but considering the talent of the players, last years ranking and Rex's own statement ('last years no. 2 ranking is unsatisfactory and we plan to improve that') that is not good enough.

And yes, similar to others before, I disagree with your assessment that last years D was not that good. It was awesome.

[EDS]

Why not? They have to be first round picks?

We need guys to grind and clog up holes as Marcus Harrison was doing for the Jets last year and this year. The other guys can focus on making plays.

The why not has to do with the fact that Charles and Bryant are back-up caliber players who you are suggesting be placed in expanded roles as starters. Of course some of that is out of necessity due to Kyle Williams current injury. Nevertheless, if the Bills are only going to rush three defenders then there does not seem to be rationale to bring two additional big bodies on the field (I doubt the Bills want either of those guys dropping back in coverage).

[Victor7]

Its not working because Rex ir overthinking it. Over coaching. He tried to make it soooo his that he messed it up. He fixed what wasn't broken. Read somewhere on another board that the Bills have like 6 or 7 checks per play. That sometimes they don't have enough time to make all the read/adjustments. Last year Schwartz just gave them a play and let them go at it. With the talent level on the Dline keeping it simple seems like the right move. Why have those guys drop to cover ?? Its asinine. Let all 4 go after the QB and make our coverages with the other 7 dudes. Sure blitz here and there but your base should have all 4 guys on the line going for it. It doesn't matter if its predictable because they are that good.

[YardRat]

If it was a base 43 the players themselves wouldn't be referring to it as a 34. There are fronts that make it look like a 43, but the reads and responsibilities dictate that it isn't.

[Mace]

Read somewhere on another board that the Bills have like 6 or 7 checks per play. That sometimes they don't have enough time to make all the read/adjustments.

Read that article myself, can't find it again now.

[Mace]

Read that article myself, can't find it again now.

Ah....Tyler Dunne, TBN


Under Jim Schwartz last season, when a call came in, the Bills typically stuck to that call. Under Ryan, a play can have six or seven checks.


http://bills.buffalonews.com/2015/10/20/time-for-ryan-to-show-he-can-coach/

[justasportsfan]

Brady owned Rexs D so Rexy tweaked it and now it's getting owned by teams we should have beaten if he didn't tweak it.