Bills will make the playoffs if they stay healthy

[Skooby]

If the Bills stay healthy, they'll make the playoffs. It's not because we are so much better than the other teams, it's because the other teams are playing worse. So we'll be what's left when it's all said and done, then we will see what we have left.

It's all about keeping our starters on the field, that should be considered in everything we do.

[Forward_Lateral]

I don't know. Yes they are much better with Tyrod in at QB. Yes, they'd probably be 4-3 at worst if EJ didn't start the last 2 games.

Still. 3-4. You have to think 10-6 is the worst record you can have if you want a WC spot. That means they have to go 7-2 in the final 9 games. 7-1 really, because there's no way they beat New England in Foxboro on a Monday Night.

Very little room for error.

[SpikedLemonade]

One game at a time bud. One game at a time.

I think we will beat the Dolphins this Sunday, but they are a much more motivated team than the team we beat in Miami. We are 2 point favourites.

The next 3 consecutive road games look difficult. The Jets have QB difficulties of their own, but their D so far has played better than ours. The Chiefs have turned the corner and are playing well. The Pats will destroy us.

Getting to 10-6 will be difficult.

[Forward_Lateral]

The next 3 games are very winnable. Unfortunately, this season has shown that they don't always win those games.

[Skooby]

Miami doesn't match up well against us and EJ would be a starter for the Jets, so those games are very winnable (most likely will be wins). If we have our full offensive compliments, we will score and score more often than not.

We had a grocery bagging Running back starting recently, so it's all about fielding a talented / healthy team. That'll be the key to this season now, our near term opponents probably won't be.

[Joe Fo Sho]

If you had to guess, how many times since 2012 do you think Rex has been able to win 2 games in a row? That's almost 3 1/2 seasons, 55 games.


To see the answer, highlight this text ----> Twice

[SpikedLemonade]

Oh what bully Rex is.

[HAMMER]

Ain't happening with Rex as HC.

[gebobs]

Miami doesn't match up well against us
The league and Miami have learned a lot about us since Week 1.


EJ would be a starter for the Jets
EJ wouldn't start in Pop Warner if I was the coach.

[OpIv37]

I don't know. Yes they are much better with Tyrod in at QB. Yes, they'd probably be 4-3 at worst if EJ didn't start the last 2 games.

Still. 3-4. You have to think 10-6 is the worst record you can have if you want a WC spot. That means they have to go 7-2 in the final 9 games. 7-1 really, because there's no way they beat New England in Foxboro on a Monday Night.

Very little room for error.

And the loss has to be an NFC team. 10-6 with 5 AFC losses most likely means we lose on a tiebreaker.

[OpIv37]

Looking at the standings, NE, Denver and Cincy are all undefeated at 7-0 and virtual locks to win their divs. there are no 5 or 6 win teams, so there is a logjam of 3 and 4 win teams

The AFC south is pathetic so I'm gonna assume no WC competition there. The remaining 3-4 win teams are the Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Steelers, Raiders and Chiefs. Chiefs and Steeles have played 8, other teams have a game in hand with 7.

If we sweep the Jets and Fish, it takes them completely out of tiebreaker concern for us. Thats our best shot at it.

[Ed]

I don't know that I see any of the WC contenders right now getting to 10 wins. Maybe one team goes on a streak and gets to 10, but I expect at least one WC team to be 9-7 or worse.

The Steelers still have three tough games where they're likely to be significant underdogs playing @Seattle, @Cincy, and vs Denver. The Raiders have tough games also, vs Minnesota, @Denver, vs Green Bay, and KC twice. And one of them is going to have another loss after they play each other this weekend.

The Bills are going to have a tough time going 7-2 to finish the season and who knows what the Jets qb situation is going to look like. There's no way Miami is good enough to go 7-2 the rest of the way either.

I'm not even really considering the Chiefs as WC contenders since they already have 5 losses and their next game is @Denver, followed by another road division game before facing the Bills. Hopefully the Chiefs will be 3-7 and thinking about the draft by the time they face the Bills.

[DesertFox24]

The next 3 games are very winnable. Unfortunately, this season has shown that they don't always win those games. How so? Miami and Jets yes but you think at New England Monday night is winnable?

[Skooby]

If we win the next 3 games, we're making the playoffs. I know NE is not going to be easy but I've seen some defensive efforts that made Brady curl up, it can happen.

[BuffaloRedleg]

The NFL is absolutely awful.

This isn't parity.

This is a situation where 5 or so teams are a perfectly cooked steak, 22 or so teams are diaper garbage, and the rest are dirty diaper garbage on fire.

Something has to give in this league. I know I keep beating this dead horse but the league is an absolute joke.

[swiper]

The NFL is absolutely awful.

This isn't parity.

This is a situation where 5 or so teams are a perfectly cooked steak, 22 or so teams are diaper garbage, and the rest are dirty diaper garbage on fire.

Something has to give in this league. I know I keep beating this dead horse but the league is an absolute joke.

Agree. It's hard to enjoy it anymore. In the 1970s the Bills weren't often good, but you could always look forward to watching OJ run. Or the other famous match-ups: Oakland V Pittsburgh, Dallas v. Washington, LA Rams v. Minnesota. There was always a good game on besides the Bills.

The college game going to the run and shoot has taken good QBs out of the NFL.

[Mace]

Probably this was our best chance for a while to take advantage of a a league with aging overpriced QB's weighing their teams options down. Unfortunately we dorked it up hiring Ryan to motivate us over the top when we needed real coaching. I rarely give up on a season this early but I just don't see this team going anywhere besides rolling downhill in a wild tangle of arms and legs.

I think giving them a week off made them real happy, helped them not at all, and they'll begin the next part of the season lazy, sloppy and unprepared in losing to Miami at home, which will accelerate the death spiral. By the last quarter of the season, fans will be the enemy, Ryan will be cranky, Taylor will be damaged again, and Rexy's players will love him even more for taking their well deserved media beatings for them while he shows "spirit" by lipping off all snarky with the press, because that's the current populism.

Bad media for being mean to us....baaaaaad media. We won't be bad, only misunderstood, unfairly targeted, very talented and on the edge of taking this league by storm with our radical retro offense and elite d-line that was only suffering a learning curve.

But it'll all click next year they'll say. Woo.

[Mace]

The NFL is absolutely awful.

This isn't parity.

This is a situation where 5 or so teams are a perfectly cooked steak, 22 or so teams are diaper garbage, and the rest are dirty diaper garbage on fire.

Something has to give in this league. I know I keep beating this dead horse but the league is an absolute joke.

I disagree. I still love the sport. It has drawbacks. The rules and officiating aggravate me, mismanagement and the need to mismanage annoys me (get a good QB and that's almost all you can afford, or don't and flop around trying to make do), and keep recycling stale perfect-time-and-place-once coaches, but I still enjoy the games for what they are.

If you look at a team like Buffalo last year to this one, we had a legitimate chance to step up and you'd be loving it regardless of the rest of the teams and their issues.

It just becomes worse because you find yourself in that "here we go again" mode typical of this franchise.

[BuffaloRedleg]

I disagree. I still love the sport. It has drawbacks. The rules and officiating aggravate me, mismanagement and the need to mismanage annoys me (get a good QB and that's almost all you can afford, or don't and flop around trying to make do), and keep recycling stale perfect-time-and-place-once coaches, but I still enjoy the games for what they are.

If you look at a team like Buffalo last year to this one, we had a legitimate chance to step up and you'd be loving it regardless of the rest of the teams and their issues.

It just becomes worse because you find yourself in that "here we go again" mode typical of this franchise.

Yeah you are absolutely right about it being worse because I'm in that mode.

I do think there are major problems in the league though. This is a QB league (by design) with only a handful of QBs, and even some of those teams can't figure it out.

The fact that we didn't make the step up tells me there is more to it than just talent and motivation, which the Bills have in spades.

I've started to really understand this year that there is no real parity in this league anymore and I guess hasn't been for years when I look back.

My perspective is a limited though, I never experienced the Bills of the 80's and before. I've really never known anything but great success early and then a never-ending despair afterwards.

[OpIv37]

If we win the next 3 games, we're making the playoffs. I know NE is not going to be easy but I've seen some defensive efforts that made Brady curl up, it can happen.

Beating NE isn't going to happen. We have to chalk that one up as a loss and do our best out of the other remaining games. We NEED to sweep the Jets and Fins.

[OpIv37]

Oh, and staying healthy is a HUGE "if."

When was the last time we stayed healthy? I don't pay enough attention to other teams to truly analyze if our injury situation is worse than everyone else's, but it seems we get decimated by injuries every single year for as long as I can remember.

[SeatownBillsFan21]

We lost to the freakin Jags this is not a playoff team. Unless 8-8 gets you in.

[Luisito23]

7-9 if they're lucky...and playoffs? LOL...

[Night Train]

The NFL is absolutely awful.

This isn't parity.

This is a situation where 5 or so teams are a perfectly cooked steak, 22 or so teams are diaper garbage, and the rest are dirty diaper garbage on fire.

Something has to give in this league. I know I keep beating this dead horse but the league is an absolute joke.


This is why I can't believe people buy the NFL ticket. I can barely watch the Bills.

College football as a whole is 10 times better.

[jamze132]

The next 3 games are very winnable. Unfortunately, this season has shown that they don't always win those games.

Not sure I would consider NE a winnable game for us...

[OpIv37]

Not sure I would consider NE a winnable game for us...

Stop being a negative nancy.

I mean, they're undefeated and the highest scoring team in the league. They already whooped us once, in our house when we were healthier than we are now. And the game is in a stadium where the Bills' only victory ever cam because they were resting starters for the playoff, which certainly won't be the case this time with 2 other undefeated teams in the AFC.

But yeah, this is a winnable game :rolleyes:

[Mr. Pink]

The Bills will be lucky to finish .500

[paladin warrior]

I d k about that . 2 team is hardest is freaking pats cheater and cowboys . I know bills will lose at pats home with a cheater and cheater ref bad call.. If bills can beat and win vs green horse sh..it without Ryan Fritzpatrick .

[Mace]

The fact that we didn't make the step up tells me there is more to it than just talent and motivation, which the Bills have in spades.

I've started to really understand this year that there is no real parity in this league anymore and I guess hasn't been for years when I look back.


Well, I'll take a shot at this. I think it's a combination of recycled coaches, GM's without vision, and "gee whiz" owners trying to run teams under their previously successful business models, incapable of fueling one another toward a goal because they're on different pages.

The new crop of owners and GM's just aren't as good with the sport as the previous ones, the recycled coaches can't keep up with the game, and new blood gets caught up in the deficiencies of the other branches while everyone tries juggling cap. Successful business models just don't always translate to new application.

Take Rex Ryan and his charisma. That can blow away an interview and make him a must have to the dazzled ownership, used to nailing the best interview candidate. Except Marrone had no charisma, and had a solid x's & o's guy in Schwartz, and made it to 9-7 with his sour face player aggravation. So looking at what needs to be improved, lack of Marrone charisma doesn't really stand out as a factor imho. Creative offense philosophy would. Make the best of what you can get, build on what you already have. Look at enduring models of success. Belichick has no charisma whatever. But nah, hire the retro offense charisma guy who will reinvent the wheel that doesn't need reinventing. It's an almost childlike lack of sense without attention to the mechanics of the sport.

Jed York and Trent Baalke at the reins in San Fran, didn't like Harbaugh because he was saucy, so they wrecked themselves getting rid of him to hire amiable yes man and good ol' line coach Thomsula. Haslam meant to change the world in Cleveland, eventually promoted Farmer as GM who goes through prime draft picks like anything without gaining contributors for his defensive minded coach who is unable to craft a good defense because they're not gaining talent with those picks across the board.

Irsay hires Pagano, gets Luck, and with GM Grigson, they fail to put an adequate line on front of him year after year, much like the Steelers have stayed middling by never giving Roethlisberger much of a line but just enough tools to stay middling to borderline good. Detroit with Mayhew/Caldwell.

But the successful teams mostly stay successful by sticking to plan year after year, with bad draft positions, because they're all on the same page and stick to what works, and it keeps working because well, it obviously works. Belicheck does well because he actually finds ways to use pieces and adapt without worrying about getting premade ones, GM there is irrelevant, Brady took less money for the team, and Kraft doesn't have to do anything. Players always look good in New England, so do assistants, then flop when they leave. That's because Belichick is a good football mind and can balance it with common sense for financials, and can see what works and what doesn't.

The owners running the teams are their own worst enemies, coaches like Peyton who go for a retread Rob Ryan are too, QB's like Brees who talk all about "financial security" for their kids and suddenly find themselves without Jimmy Graham so their kids will have financial security as they sacrifice success are too.

It's deficient vision, preparation and application, which certainly isn't any fans fault for getting aggravated and not being sure what to be aggravated about, but I don't think it's the flawed sport itself.

There's my book for the day, credit to anyone who reads it all.

[BuffaloRedleg]

Well, I'll take a shot at this. I think it's a combination of recycled coaches, GM's without vision, and "gee whiz" owners trying to run teams under their previously successful business models, incapable of fueling one another toward a goal because they're on different pages.

The new crop of owners and GM's just aren't as good with the sport as the previous ones, the recycled coaches can't keep up with the game, and new blood gets caught up in the deficiencies of the other branches while everyone tries juggling cap. Successful business models just don't always translate to new application.

Take Rex Ryan and his charisma. That can blow away an interview and make him a must have to the dazzled ownership, used to nailing the best interview candidate. Except Marrone had no charisma, and had a solid x's & o's guy in Schwartz, and made it to 9-7 with his sour face player aggravation. So looking at what needs to be improved, lack of Marrone charisma doesn't really stand out as a factor imho. Creative offense philosophy would. Make the best of what you can get, build on what you already have. Look at enduring models of success. Belichick has no charisma whatever. But nah, hire the retro offense charisma guy who will reinvent the wheel that doesn't need reinventing. It's an almost childlike lack of sense without attention to the mechanics of the sport.

Jed York and Trent Baalke at the reins in San Fran, didn't like Harbaugh because he was saucy, so they wrecked themselves getting rid of him to hire amiable yes man and good ol' line coach Thomsula. Haslam meant to change the world in Cleveland, eventually promoted Farmer as GM who goes through prime draft picks like anything without gaining contributors for his defensive minded coach who is unable to craft a good defense because they're not gaining talent with those picks across the board.

Irsay hires Pagano, gets Luck, and with GM Grigson, they fail to put an adequate line on front of him year after year, much like the Steelers have stayed middling by never giving Roethlisberger much of a line but just enough tools to stay middling to borderline good. Detroit with Mayhew/Caldwell.

But the successful teams mostly stay successful by sticking to plan year after year, with bad draft positions, because they're all on the same page and stick to what works, and it keeps working because well, it obviously works. Belicheck does well because he actually finds ways to use pieces and adapt without worrying about getting premade ones, GM there is irrelevant, Brady took less money for the team, and Kraft doesn't have to do anything. Players always look good in New England, so do assistants, then flop when they leave. That's because Belichick is a good football mind and can balance it with common sense for financials, and can see what works and what doesn't.

The owners running the teams are their own worst enemies, coaches like Peyton who go for a retread Rob Ryan are too, QB's like Brees who talk all about "financial security" for their kids and suddenly find themselves without Jimmy Graham so their kids will have financial security as they sacrifice success are too.

It's deficient vision, preparation and application, which certainly isn't any fans fault for getting aggravated and not being sure what to be aggravated about, but I don't think it's the flawed sport itself.

There's my book for the day, credit to anyone who reads it all.


I agree with all of this and very well said. I think you covered most of how consistent organization success happens (or doesn't). The one thing left out though is plain ole' luck at getting a QB. I know we all love the Patriots model of success because their consistent dominance of this league is really like few other things that have existed in sports (especially when you consider the push towards parity), but none of this works without Tom Brady. Without Tom Brady, they're another mediocre franchise just like everyone else who gets a shot at success once in a while.

I'm starting to think they're the perfect synergy between coach, QB and owner. They're all on the same page and they're able to just run this league because not only are they good at what they do but they are all locked in with eachother. Take one away (well maybe the owner) and the whole thing falls apart. They know exactly which rules to exploit, exactly which trends to exploit and know how to do it.

They don't win the Superbowl every year, but for the last 13 or so years they have been near favorites.

I think to start to understand this league you start with them and work your way down, rather than start with the garbage and work up. Maybe that's why teams fail, because they try to win their way or a new way instead of capturing exactly what it is that it takes to win.

I'm talking out my ass and am contradicting myself a bunch of times in this, but I really think about this a lot because it is fascinating. How does a league with a level playing field, same set of rules, draft order that FAVORS crap teams, have a team that is so dominant for so long? Hows it a team like the Bills so bad so long?

It's easy to just say fire Brandon or whoever the scape goat of the month is, but it's deeper than that. A lot of teams struggle to find success in this league, and the bills have been just the below average ones of that group. Brandon isn't why the Colts are failing, or the Browns or Lions can never find success. These are smart people (presumably) who have egos and are really trying to win, despite the whiner line callers who think everyone who fails at their job is deliberately machiavellian in their intentions.

We'll always have schadenfreude I guess.

[Mace]

I don't even think you need luck to get a QB, you just need the synergy you mentioned. Kaepernick was a 2nd, perfect for Harbaugh. Dalton was a 2nd, a fit in Cinci, Wilson a 3rd, what Seattle was looking for. Carolina nabbed Newton obviously, struggled putting a team around him, Luck in Indy the same. Cleveland grabbed Manziel and had to get McCown anyway, Washington grabbed RG3 and wrecked him, but also grabbed Cousins who is middlin'. Carson Palmer was a perfect fit in Arizona.

If you take any of those guys and flip them among different teams the possible results make you wonder, some good, some bad. How's a team like the Bills stay so bad so long ? Like Cleveland, or Jacksonville (Bortles, Gabbert, Henne, Garrard), or Tennessee with Mariota and it didn't help, Tampa with Glennon needed Winston....bunch of management parts without synergies.

Bad management, bad philosophy, bad preparation, bad execution.

It always sounds good to say you take the best pieces and mean to use them best, or bad ones and use them better, but we're a textbook case of rarely being able to do it. Watkins, Spiller, Kyle Williams dropping into coverage, zone blocking offense with drive blocking linemen, drive blocking offense with zone blocking linemen, finesse rb's in a downhill scheme, keeping a mobile QB in the pocket or trying to make a statue play a mobile game, making a rag armed QB throw downfield, encouraging a QB with an arm to check down.

The truth is, it's our own fault imho. You can't really blame anyone for what happens to us besides our organization, that is always either deficient in scouting, obtaining, or using, or one or two, but never hits on all 3 like teams that do their homework and work at it do.

Yeah, Schadenfreude. I'm enjoying what's happening to the 49'ers and Saints, myself, but I find myself rooting for Denver(because Elway is working hard at it) and the Pack because they're what I wish we were for a smaller market team. Belichick doesn't bother me much anymore in New England, you have to give credit to well maintained driven excellence as if it was simple.

[Skooby]

Including Tyrod for the next 9 games.

[Ginger Vitis]

Skoobs you change your mind every week on whether the Bills will be a playoff team or not

[Skooby]

Skoobs you change your mind every week on whether the Bills will be a playoff team or not

What can I say, I like flexibility.

[Skooby]

http://bills.buffalonews.com/2015/11/05/thursday-practice-report-percy-harvin-still-not-practicing/

Harvin still not on the field or practicing:

[Mr. Pink]

http://bills.buffalonews.com/2015/11/05/thursday-practice-report-percy-harvin-still-not-practicing/

Harvin still not on the field or practicing:

I'd be shocked if Harvin ever sees the field as a Buffalo Bill again.