How do you feel about the Bills making the playoffs?

[BuffaloRedleg]

How much do you agree/disagree with this statement:

The Bills will make the playoffs this year.

I'm curious where everyone stands right now.

I am still a fence sitter "neither agree nor disagree," I need more information to decide. I most likely won't get it for a few weeks unfortunately because the Pats are just in another world right now.

[WagonCircler]

If they do, it will be because the rest of the AFC is pretty much horrendous.

[ICRockets]

Too early to tell. Our gauntlet just started. 5 away games in 6 weeks. We're losing the next one for sure. After that it's the Chiefs, Eagles, and Redskins with a home game against the Texans sandwiched in. I think we're a better team than all 4 of them, so I believe we should win at least 3 of the 4. We do that, and I think we have a legit shot at making the playoffs.

[OpIv37]

I don't think they will make it.

We still have to play the Pats which is as close to a guaranteed L as it gets. Still too many road games, and the team has t performed well at home so we can't count those as givens either.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

I think they make it. The AFC is a hot mess, and we have a very strong record so far in terms of tiebreaks. Last year, we padded our record with games against the NFC North, so when it got to the end of the year we lost on nearly all the cards. Games which previously looked difficult (Houston, Dallas, Philly) look a lot more winnable.

If we stay healthy.

[The Natrix]

If I had to pick either yes or no on an even money wager, I'd say no.

I'm going to say they are 31.728888888888% likely to make the playoffs.

[sudzy]

I can see someone making it in the AFC at 9-7, this year. So right about now I'm think the Bills are 50-50.

[Mr. Pink]

50/50

I don't think they're beating either New England nor Dallas. So that leaves 5 other games where they have to win at least 4 of them. They're lucking out that the AFC is weak after New England, Cincy and Denver. So 9-7 might be good enough to get in as long as another team doesn't go on a run.

[The Natrix]

I think saying 50/50 is a bit of a homer prediction, not that there's anything wrong with that.

I think there are two main things that people are overlooking.

1. Yes, at the moment it looks like a 4 team race for 2 spots, but that can all change very quick. There isn't a single team that is mathematically out of it. Even the Browns or Chargers could finish 9-7. The Chiefs are 3-5. If they win and Buffalo loses to NE,(very high chance) the Bills trip to Kansas City becomes huge. That game alone would almost be a coin flip on whether the Bills stay a float or have their hopes diminished significantly.

2. The Bills depth is below average. Tyrod has struggled without a full cast of weapons and Tyrod himself HAS GOT TO stay healthy the rest of the way. The rest of the way, as in EVERY SINGLE GAME. Put J. Johnson in there and Buffalo is probably an underdog in any remaining game on the schedule. With the way Roman is giving Taylor designed freaking run plays, Tyrod staying healthy is not super likely. I have more optimism when it comes to J. Johnson over EJ, but not by much.

...EJ.. friggin EJ. If they beat Jacksonville, I'd give them a 50/50 shot at this point.

[YardRat]

I don't see it happening. Too many road games, there will be more injuries, other teams will get hot, etc. The offense still isn't good enough to be able to trust them to put points on the board even when turnovers are heavily in our favor, even when they are healthy.

[Scumbag College]

I think that the Bills make it. If you look at the other teams they are vying for the wildcard with, the Raiders are the most talented right now. They have some tough games coming up and I think that the best that they do is 9-7. Pittsburgh has a really tough schedule and I'm not sure that Big Ben isn't seriously hurt to the point where he becomes a liability to the team if he comes back too soon, I can see them finishing at 8-8 or 9-7. The Jets have the easiest schedule out of the bunch but they look like they are fading pretty quickly, so I can see them going 8-8. I think that if the Bills go 10-6, their losses will be against NE and Philly. The Bills would have beat KC pretty handily last year if it wasn't for ridiculous fumbles by Brown and McFumbles, and the Bills are a better team this year and KC took a step back. Houston and the Redskins stink, and I think Dallas shelves Romo for the rest of the year since they are going to be way out of the playoffs by the time he's healthy to return, making that game much easier to win. I'm hoping by the time the Jets come in for the season finale, the Bills are 9-6 and have the 5th spot clinched with all of the tiebreakers and potentially only 4 AFC losses and the division record of 3-2 to have all of the tiebreakers in hand over the Raiders, Steelers, and Jets.

[psubills62]

Need the offensive triumvirate (Taylor, McCoy, Watkins) to stay healthy to have a good chance. This is why I wanted to see another win or two before the bye - lot of road games coming up.

[Albany,n.y.]

Piece of cake. I'll be shocked if they don't make the playoffs. There are a lot of winnable games as long as Taylor, McCoy & Watkins play.

No chance if EJ starts again, same with Josh Johnson.

[YardRat]

Need the offensive triumvirate (Taylor, McCoy, Watkins) to stay healthy to have a good chance. This is why I wanted to see another win or two before the bye - lot of road games coming up.


Piece of cake. I'll be shocked if they don't make the playoffs. There are a lot of winnable games as long as Taylor, McCoy & Watkins play.

No chance if EJ starts again, same with Josh Johnson.

They better get their **** together then, because putting up 16 points while winning the turnover battle 4-0 even with them healthy doesn't exactly inspire a ton of confidence.

[BuffaloRedleg]

They better get their **** together then, because putting up 16 points while winning the turnover battle 4-0 even with them healthy doesn't exactly inspire a ton of confidence.

I think weather and game flow played a significant factor in those numbers.

[Meathead]

mccoys health is probably more important than even tyrods. other than a truly disastrous two minutes ej has played well enough to compete if they have mccoy running like he has last two games. but even with tyrod and mccoy its basically a coin flip from here whether they get a wc or not. they arent good enough to be confident but not bad enough that they couldnt get the four or five wins they need to get in. it also depends on who they beat to get to nine or ten wins

[stuckincincy]

They better get their **** together then, because putting up 16 points while winning the turnover battle 4-0 even with them healthy doesn't exactly inspire a ton of confidence.

As well as the odds facing one or two more clubs taking dumb 4th and goal chances instead of fgs...

[BuffaloRedleg]

I think "that kind of play in that game you won isn't going to fly against x" is one of the most overrated cliches sports fans utter in search to find things to keep them from being too excited about their team.

Each game has its own gameflow and you find a way to win that game. If you win, you move on. Some are just going to be ugly, and sometimes it's pouring rain, and sometimes it's injuries.

You'd laugh if someone said something about a positive performance like "If the Bills stop the pass the way they did against the Dolphins then they'll beat the Pats." It's way more complicated than that, we all agree on this.

So why is it different the other way around for negative things?

[swiper]

Just enjoying watching them right now. They're not great, but good enough some weeks. And that sure beats losing.

[stuckincincy]

I think "that kind of play in that game you won isn't going to fly against x" is one of the most overrated cliches sports fans utter in search to find things to keep them from being too excited about their team.

Each game has its own gameflow and you find a way to win that game. If you win, you move on. Some are just going to be ugly, and sometimes it's pouring rain, and sometimes it's injuries.

You'd laugh if someone said something about a positive performance like "If the Bills stop the pass the way they did against the Dolphins then they'll beat the Pats." It's way more complicated than that, we all agree on this.

So why is it different the other way around for negative things?

It's nice to talk about game flow, and everyone knows that certain decisions are made wrt time, field position, and score.

The negative things that the staff of TEN and NYJ by not taking more or less easy fgs ultimately decided the game results. Yes - something else could have happened. However, both TEN and NYJ executed long drives, both came up empty. NYJ, having been cute early on, not having those 3 points in their pocket, then tries another 4th and goal - that woeful pass behind the LOS.

[Mace]

I voted disagree, I don't think they're going to make it. They're riding the Ryan rollercoaster which brings nothing to the table but ups and downs, where I expected them to more formidably ride the initial wave of his charisma. That they haven't, to me means the players didn't need charisma from their HC as much as the fans did. I don't think they're consistent enough game to game, even in a conference that's struggling this year, which is a terribly wasted opportunity to me if it pans out.

I hope I'm wrong, but I think they'll lose more, stupidly than win, convincingly as it goes.

[BuffaloRedleg]

It's nice to talk about game flow, and everyone knows that certain decisions are made wrt time, field position, and score.

The negative things that the staff of TEN and NYJ by not taking more or less easy fgs ultimately decided the game results. Yes - something else could have happened. However, both TEN and NYJ executed long drives, both came up empty. NYJ, having been cute early on, not having those 3 points in their pocket, then tries another 4th and goal - that woeful pass behind the LOS.

But I mean it's more likely that the Pats just roll over us than they execute some last minute winning drive. The comparison doesn't really work in sports, as much as people like the simple narrative. The games are totally different. We need to play the Pats entirely differently than the Jets, who were different from the Dolphins etc.

It's like listening to Rich Gannon during the game. His only comment ever is "you can't let x do y." Well, you can't let Fitz score 100 points and you also can't let Tom Brady score 100 points. It's very surface level analysis.

[YardRat]

Game flow is one thing...trend is another. This offense, regardless of who is on the field and healthy (and also regardless of any 'game flow' in any specific contest), has struggled for the most part against every team they've played except for Miami. An offensive squad can't consistently go completely dormant for greater parts of games except for the occasional big play or, apparently even rarer this season, long drive that ends up with six points, and expect 'game flow' to help them consistently come away with victories.

[Mr. Cynical]

50/50

I don't think they're beating either New England nor Dallas. So that leaves 5 other games where they have to win at least 4 of them. They're lucking out that the AFC is weak after New England, Cincy and Denver. So 9-7 might be good enough to get in as long as another team doesn't go on a run.

Agree with this, although I think they will beat Dallas. The key is simple - they have to stay healthy from top to bottom. Any gaps and their chances go waaaaay down.

[Oaf]

Will Romo be back for the Dal game?

[bdutton]

If we manage to find a way to beat the Patriots next week... yes. We need 5 wins. Patriots will need to be one of them. So I voted Disagree.

[Night Train]

The health of our key skill players has been an issue all year and cost us the Jags game.

I certainly don't expect a win next Sunday but a 5-5 team after that with good health and the schedule in front of them has a chance to snag that last wild card slot. But if Taylor, Watkins, McCoy, Karlos Williams go down again for significant time, we know our fate.

[BuffaloRedleg]

Game flow is one thing...trend is another. This offense, regardless of who is on the field and healthy (and also regardless of any 'game flow' in any specific contest), has struggled for the most part against every team they've played except for Miami. An offensive squad can't consistently go completely dormant for greater parts of games except for the occasional big play or, apparently even rarer this season, long drive that ends up with six points, and expect 'game flow' to help them consistently come away with victories.

The game flow doesn't cause the victories, it is a product of the situation in the game.

As to your other comment, the statistics tell a different story.

The Bills are 11th in total yards, 8th in PPG and 1st in rushing yards. Now I don't think you win the Superbowl by being 25th in passing yards in the league, but that is by design at least. They are 5th in the league in giveaway/takeaway ration (and would be second if it wasn't for that disastrous Manuel game)

What is this trend you are talking about? This team has always been a defense first, don't turn the ball over, run the ball hard team. The stats (and their losses when the key players in that design got injured) show that they have been able to do that.

I'm someone who is neither agree nor disagree so I think we're on the same page on that, but I just don't agree with your analysis. This is a team that when healthy does exactly what they want to do, but just hasn't done it against what I would consider a good team. I also think the design is innately flawed because I have a hard time believing you can win a SB with this type of offensive philosophy, unless magically this defense becomes better than Denver.

Until they do that, they are just the average garbage pile in the NFL, although maybe they are good enough to be a smelly diaper that sits on the top rather than one wedged deep in the middle. We have that going for us.

[Skooby]

Based on us staying healthy, the Bills make the playoffs. If EJ / Johnson has to play, there's no chance at all of us making it. I strongly agree that if the Bills stay with the same guys, they make it.

[Mike]

Heart of the Problem:

The Bills are actually worst than many of us expected - we expects top 5 defense & average offense. As a result, it's very hard to count on them to win versus even the bad teams, there is little consistency -outside of getting penalties- and wins/loses 'happen' because of lucky bounce here, bad call there, etc.

What makes things interesting is how poor everyone else is. There are a handful of good teams, a bunch of bad teams, and then pure mediocrity. You can take that last playoff spot and put any number of teams like the Bills and it would make perfect sense.

As a result, I have ranked top AFC teams based on Play and adjusted for things like injury:
1. Pats
2. Cats (Cinci)
3. Broncos
4. Steelers
---- Teams Below the Line are Interchangeable ---------
5. Raiders - best case 9-10 wins
6. Colts - will win div
7. Bills - best case 9-10 wins
8. Jets - best case 9-10 wins

* Real World Tie Braker goes to Team with Best QB: Raiders.
Bills barely miss playoffs as Raiders get the Last Spot!

[WagonCircler]

I think "that kind of play in that game you won isn't going to fly against x" is one of the most overrated cliches sports fans utter in search to find things to keep them from being too excited about their team.

We don't need that in Buffalo. A decade and a half without playoffs eliminates the need for artificial pessimism. We have the genuine article.

[LarryBoy]

to me its just way too early to tell....I voted neither though I feel more hopeful this year then in the past...

[BuffaloRedleg]

We don't need that in Buffalo. A decade and a half without playoffs eliminates the need for artificial pessimism. We have the genuine article.

That's why I usually find it unhelpful.

So far we've rolled over teams or gotten rolled over. If it's been close its only because we either let them back in or they let us back in.

My biggest problem is that the team hasn't really played in an overly competitive game yet. This might be a little unfair but when I see us go toe to toe with a good team, then we can talk playoffs.

I don't need us to beat the Patriots as they are seemingly playing on a different level right now, but if we can play a competitive game I'll feel pretty good about our playoff situation.

I just can't handle getting embarrassed on MNF. We have so few of them, and man do I hear about it from my out of state friends.

[MikeInRoch]

Strongly disagree. Will be happy if I'm wrong.

[WagonCircler]

What I can't handle is perpetuating the status quo due to incremental improvement.

Much is made every year over how improved the roster is. Especially this year. Our Defense was supposed to be the 1985 Bears. Our Offense was supposed to be loaded with nuclear weapons.

But every year, it's the same old result. Finishing a game or two out of the playoffs, then drafting anywhere from the 8th to the 12th slot.

I think Doug Whaley has built a dumb football team. I have zero confidence that the Bills are capable of greatness. They're playing checkers while the true contenders are playing chess.

It's the same movie. That's why I'm enjoying the Sabres so much right now. I truly believe that they're on the road to being a great team. Nothing about the Bills says greatness. Their ceiling is okayness.

[swiper]

The roster lacks a QB.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Wildcard slots are like the old joke:

Two guys are walking through the woods when they stumble across an angry bear. Before they start running, one guy stops to tie his shoes. The other guy says "What the hell does that matter? You'll never outrun the bear."

"I don't have to outrun the bear, I only have to outrun you."


People are hung up on how we played against the Bengals and Patriots. They are the class of the conference, and the fact that they beat on us shows that we aren't title contenders. However, someone's got to win those wild card slots, and we are well in the thick of that competition.

The Ravens, Browns, Chargers, and anyone in the AFC south other than the winner are all but eliminated from the WC. The Pats and Bengals have all but locked up their divisions.

That leaves the Steelers, Raiders, Chiefs, Broncos, Jets, Dolphins, and us fighting for two slots. We've already beaten two of those teams and have two more games among that group to get tiebreakers. The Steelers look good and will probably take the #5 seed unless their injuries finally catch up with them. One of the Raiders/Chiefs/Broncos three (likely Denver) will win the West and not be in competition with us.

So its likely Raiders, Chiefs, Jets, and Bills for the #6 seed. I think that's a winnable group.

[WagonCircler]

The roster lacks a QB.

That's the truly scary thing. Whaley will point to statistics and say that we're just fine at QB. I bet he doesn't even draft a QB.

[ICRockets]

The roster lacks a QB.

Yeah, we need a #2 in case Tyrod goes down again.

[BLeonard]

To all of those saying "Too many road games"... The Bills are 3-1 on the road and 2-3 at home.

I think 9-7 gets a team in in the AFC. That means, even if you are chalking up the Pats game as a loss (which I'm not), that means they need 4 wins out of KC, HOU, PHI, WSH, DAL and NYJ. The only team with a winning record out of those is the Jets, who the Bills just beat on the road.

At this point, the Bills control their own destiny and have a pretty favorable schedule... That's not a bad spot to be in a week before Thanksgiving.

-Bill

[psubills62]

Right now looking at other teams remaining schedules and conference records, I feel like we're actually in a solid spot. Pittsburgh could easily be 9-7, Jets may not even get to 9 wins. Oakland could end up at 9 wins, but will be tough.

I think if we get to 9 wins and beat 2 or more conference opponents, we could have a decent shot. As is the case every single year though, we need to take care of business. I just a have a really bad feeling that Jaguars loss is going to come back to bite us.

[BuffaloRedleg]

What I can't handle is perpetuating the status quo due to incremental improvement.

Much is made every year over how improved the roster is. Especially this year. Our Defense was supposed to be the 1985 Bears. Our Offense was supposed to be loaded with nuclear weapons.

But every year, it's the same old result. Finishing a game or two out of the playoffs, then drafting anywhere from the 8th to the 12th slot.

I think Doug Whaley has built a dumb football team. I have zero confidence that the Bills are capable of greatness. They're playing checkers while the true contenders are playing chess.

It's the same movie. That's why I'm enjoying the Sabres so much right now. I truly believe that they're on the road to being a great team. Nothing about the Bills says greatness. Their ceiling is okayness.

I see a lot of teams do the exact same thing. In fact, all but about 3-4 have this same problem every year.

I think football is just a broke sport.

[BertSquirtgum]

Yeah, we need a #2 in case Tyrod goes down again.

Umm, no. Tyrod is the #2 playing the #1 currently. and he's not very good at it.

[ICRockets]

Umm, no. Tyrod is the #2 playing the #1 currently. and he's not very good at it.

You should probably stop posting about football if you can't see how much better Tyrod Taylor is at playing QB than anybody we've had on our roster since Kelly.

[BertSquirtgum]

You should probably stop posting about football if you can't see how much better Tyrod Taylor is at playing QB than anybody we've had on our roster since Kelly.

If you did actually watch Bills football since Kelly played then you would know that isn't a good thing to say. It's not hard to be better than anyone that played after Kelly. They all sucked and unless Tyrod learns how to command the offense and go through progressions he's going to be another one in a long line of bums.

[Victor7]

40-60 IMO

We are 5-5 since I give us a 0.00000000001% chance of beating the Pats.

After that its road games galore. While the teams are not world beaters being on the road is tough. We certainly have a good shot if we stay healthy but after all this time I'm damaged goods and I'm sure whatever bad thing needs to happen will happen and we will miss out as usual.

[Joe Fo Sho]

After that its road games galore. While the teams are not world beaters being on the road is tough.

If you want to cherry pick some statistics and read too far into them, you could say this team is 3-0 when playing on the road inside the continental United States.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

40-60 IMO

We are 5-5 since I give us a 0.00000000001% chance of beating the Pats.

After that its road games galore. While the teams are not world beaters being on the road is tough. We certainly have a good shot if we stay healthy but after all this time I'm damaged goods and I'm sure whatever bad thing needs to happen will happen and we will miss out as usual.

After that it's 3 road (chiefs, eagles, skins) and 3 home (Jets, Texans, Cowboys)

[Scumbag College]

After the Pats, if you don't count Dallas (which might still be the best team we play with a healthy Romo) each team is within a game of their division leader or the last conference wild card spot. No one after the Pats is a world beater, but tough enough opposition to make trying to slide in to a wildcard spot at 5 or 6 a pretty tough proposition.

[Meathead]

how do you feel about your teams execution?

im all for it

[sudzy]

how do you feel about your teams execution?

im all for it

John McKay

[Victor7]

After that it's 3 road (chiefs, eagles, skins) and 3 home (Jets, Texans, Cowboys)

Oh I know Ilum but 2 of the 3 home games are the last games. By then we could be in deep doo doo if we don't take care of things on the road first.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Oh I know Ilum but 2 of the 3 home games are the last games. By then we could be in deep doo doo if we don't take care of things on the road first.

Well we've got to take care of business on the road regardless. But I see your point.

[feldspar]

how do you feel about your teams execution?

im all for it

Where my mind went, too.

Lots of teams can catch up to the Bills If they lose to the Pats this week. If the Bills lose, these are the immediate things to think about...of course, we are are talking about a Wildcard spot

- The Jets can overtake us if they beat the Texans.
- The Dolphins can have the same record if they beat the Cowboys, even though the Bills would win the tiebreaker (Romo is going to be back, I believe)
- the Steelers will STILL be ahead of us...they have their bye
- the Texans/Colts could match our record. What a ****ed up division the AFC South is. The Texans are playing the Jets as well, so either one of those teams would get a step on us. Don't discount the Texans yet, either...as far as we are concerned.
- the chiefs could match our record by beating the Chargers on the road
- The Raiders could match our record by beating the Lions on the road

In other words, there are a million teams that can get a leg up on the Bills for those wildcard spots this week if we don't beat the Pats. The outlook is probably going to get tighter after Monday Night is what I'm saying.

Beating the Pats would be incredible at this point...at any point, really, but I'll turn a backflip if that happens.

[BillsImpossible]

Everything was impossible, and then life happened.

The impossible happened.

That's why I strongly agree that a 2015 Buffalo Bills playoff berth will happen.

[feldspar]

Everything was impossible, and then life happened.

The impossible happened.

That's why I strongly agree that a 2015 Buffalo Bills playoff berth will happen.

That's why I thought I'd hit the lottery by now, too.

The Bills have a chance, and that's about it.

[Mike]

You should probably stop posting about football if you can't see how much better Tyrod Taylor is at playing QB than anybody we've had on our roster since Kelly.

I would argue that both Bledsoe & Fluttie were substantially better than Taylor.

[Historian]

Not a chance. Losing to the Giants at home and the Jags in London sealed this team's fate.

After they lose to the Cheaters (with help from the Refs), I see them beating Houston, MAYBE the Eagles, and probably the Jets.

This team inspires no confidence whatsoever.

[feldspar]

Not a chance. Losing to the Giants at home and the Jags in London sealed this team's fate.

After they lose to the Cheaters (with help from the Refs), I see them beating Houston, MAYBE the Eagles, and probably the Jets.

This team inspires no confidence whatsoever.

Yeah, that Jacksonville game was a real back-breaker...the kind of loss that will come back to haunt you down the stretch. The kind of thing that will constantly remind me of that Robey pass-interference call that didn't happen. We would have won if not for that...hate having to think it, but it's true in all likelihood. Not to mention EJ's handing them back-to-back-to-back touchdowns.

Couple of TDs taken back in the giants game, too. Pretty sick of thinking about things like this later in the season.

But we're still in it, so I'll roll with that. I'm entirely prepared to get pissed off with things that happen this week against the Pats. I do envision a close game, though.

[BuffaloRedleg]

Not a chance. Losing to the Giants at home and the Jags in London sealed this team's fate.

After they lose to the Cheaters (with help from the Refs), I see them beating Houston, MAYBE the Eagles, and probably the Jets.

This team inspires no confidence whatsoever.

That's just being disingenuous. Of course there is a chance. In fact there is a chance significantly above zero from a statistical standpoint.

[The Natrix]

I'm going to say they are 31.728888888888% likely to make the playoffs.

After seeing what KC did to the chargers, and being impressed with how the Texans are playing, I'm going to have to lower the chance to 22.7453%.

[The Natrix]

22.7453%.

21.534444444%

[The Natrix]

21.534444444%

8.210056%

[Mr. Pink]

I now revise my 50/50 to 0%

The season is over.

[The Natrix]

Not a chance. Losing to the Giants at home and the Jags in London sealed this team's fate.

After they lose to the Cheaters (with help from the Refs), I see them beating Houston, MAYBE the Eagles, and probably the Jets.

This team inspires no confidence whatsoever.

Looks like this was more accurate than saying "50-50" LOL.

[The Natrix]

1.2566666666%