NYT: NFL playoff scenario simulator

[gebobs]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/upshot/2015-nfl-playoff-simulator.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

42% as of now. Lose to the Pats and it drops to 36%. But beat the Chiefs it gets better than even, 61%.

[gebobs]

Re: NYT: NFL playoff scenario simulator

Lose to just the Pat, Eagles, and Cowboys and it's 87%. Beating the Chiefs and the Texans will be a tough row to hoe.

[Joe Fo Sho]

Re: NYT: NFL playoff scenario simulator

Lose to just the Pat, Eagles, and Cowboys and it's 87%. Beating the Chiefs and the Texans will be a tough row to hoe.

The Chiefs and Texans are clearly the most important games on our schedule. If we don't beat those teams, we don't deserve to be in the playoffs anyway. I think we need to go 2-1 in the next 3 games to have a chance at the playoffs. We might be able to afford losing to one of those 2 teams if somehow we beat New England, but if we lose to both we're done.

[Ed]

Re: NYT: NFL playoff scenario simulator

The KC game this weekend looks like the most critical to me. It's hard to envision the Bills losing that game and still making it. The Chiefs schedule looks super easy. Even if we beat them next week, there's still a good chance that they win out and finish 10-6. I'd give KC the highest odds of getting a WC out of any of the contenders right now, which is pretty incredible considering they started 1-5.

[Gilly]

Re: NYT: NFL playoff scenario simulator

That's a cool gadget to play with

[gebobs]

Re: NYT: NFL playoff scenario simulator

21% now. If the Bills lose only to Dallas, 78%.

[OpIv37]

Re: NYT: NFL playoff scenario simulator

21% now. If the Bills lose only to Dallas, 78%.

Beating only Dallas seems more likely at this point.

[gebobs]

Re: NYT: NFL playoff scenario simulator

Beating only Dallas seems more likely at this point.

Haha...I know. I was just brain farting. If the team was injury free, including free of the apparently disabling brain injury to the head coach, I would give them half a chance.

[X-Era]

Re: NYT: NFL playoff scenario simulator

Pretty cool

Heres what I found:

Win out and 84% chance were in
Lose 2 against 2 NFC teams and its ~17% we get in
Lose 2 against 2 AFC teams and its 0% we get in
Lose 1 against 1 AFC team and 1 against 1 NFC team and its ~5% we get in

*we cant lose 2 games or were done

If we only lose one more and its X team the chance we get in is:

Texans- 31%
Eagles- 70%
Redskins- 69%
Cowboys- 68%
Jets- 31%

*Need to beat both the Texans and the Jets
*If were going to lose one of the remaining games it needs to be against an NFC team, ideally the Eagles