Spotrac projects Tyrod's market value: 4 year extension, $82.7 million

[IlluminatusUIUC]

http://www.spotrac.com/research/nfl/current-market-value-tyrod-taylor-560/


Final Thoughts & More Likely Outcomes
Some may gawk at a market value of this magnitude for a somewhat unproven player, especially on a 6-6 Bills team on the outside of the playoffs looking in (for the 16th straight year). But mathematically speaking the numbers don't lie. Taylor is a Top 5 quarterback in terms of passer rating and least interceptions, Top 10 in terms of completion percentage, and one of the best 4th quarter QBs in all of football.

While a jump from $1M to $20M seems unlikely, this is simply a calculated look at how his inaugural season in Buffalo appears to be playing out. For purposes of risk/reward, it's more likely that the Bills offer a "nibble" extension to Taylor this offseason, possibly to the tune of Nick Foles' 2 year $24.5M deal (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/st.-louis-rams/nick-foles/) with St. Louis

Based on the above calculations, our current new-money market value for Tyrod Taylor is: Spotrac's Calculated Value: 4 years, $82,770,000
Average annual salary $20,692,500



https://witchborn.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/wpid-spongebob_funny_face_2_by_poohbear119-11.jpg

[MillsapsBillsFan]

We still have him under contract for another season. If the Bills throw that much money at an unproven QB we don't deserve to make the playoffs ever again. That's franchise money, Tyrod has been good at times and bad at times but he's nowhere close to worth that much at this pooint

[Victor7]

That's ridiculous money for TT.

There's only 4 or 5 guys worth that coin.

[MillsapsBillsFan]

http://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/ 9 guys in the NFL make over 20 Million (Rodgers, Wilson, Roethlesburger, Eli Manning, Rivers, Newton, Ryan, Flacco and Brees). Is that article really trying to say that they think Tyrod deserves to be paid as much as those guys? Because I don't think hes even close to being in that group.

[coastal]

Buh bye Mario you sack of sh1t

[Mr. Pink]

Want a real Fools Gold contract?

Give Tyrod that money.

[Buffalogic]

He's got to play at 700k again next year. I hope he keep getting better and deserves a high paying extension after next season.

[BertSquirtgum]

Hilarious

[IlluminatusUIUC]

The article compares his stats from this season to players who signed deals at the same age, but the difference is most of those guys have multiple years under his belt. An extension that big for a 10 game sample size is completely insane

[WagonCircler]

The article compares his stats from this season to players who signed deals at the same age, but the difference is most of those guys have multiple years under his belt. An extension that big for a 10 game sample size is completely insane


Completely insane, but an archetype Buffalo situation. We will overpay and he will regress and be injured more than he plays, and worst of all, we will stop drafting QBs because we just paid out $80 MIL to a career backup.

[jimmifli]

He's small and plays high risk. He isn't going to want to wait and playout his deal.

He'll want something with guaranteed money. Maybe similar to Kap's deal essentially a series of 1 year deals with the guaranteed salary. Kap was at $12 million, that seems high for Tyrod, but when looking at other QB contracts maybe not.

[Bill Cody]

I think if I'm going to pay Russell Wilson money....I'd want to get Russell Wilson

[Victor7]

He's small and plays high risk. He isn't going to want to wait and playout his deal.

He'll want something with guaranteed money. Maybe similar to Kap's deal essentially a series of 1 year deals with the guaranteed salary. Kap was at $12 million, that seems high for Tyrod, but when looking at other QB contracts maybe not.

If 2016 resembles 2015 I'd say 12 mill would be ok. A slight overpay maybe but certainly not bat **** crazy like the 20 mill suggested by the article in the opening post.

[mightysimi]

That is the market for a starting QB. If he has another year like this one being top 10 in many categories, if it isn't us, someone will pay him. You can argue that close to half of the teams are looking for QB upgrade. If we let him walk, we are in the same place we were before. A good team without a QB. And with the last QB the team drafted being EJ, do you trust Whaley to make the right pick?

Who is the replacement for Taylor? For everyone who thinks he sucks, who is it?

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Ideally you do nothing because too many times you see guys, especially first time starting guys, flash and then settle into a so-so norm. However, considering he's been in the league for 5 years now, he may not fluctuate as much as a totally green guy and mentally (a huge part of NFL QB) much stable because he's seen a lot in the league. If he plays the rest 4 games at the current level, and the Bills want some stability at this position, I'd be willing to give him an extension that essentially has a $10 million signing bonus, $10 million salary in 2017 and player voidable option after 2017. In new real money terms, he can pocket additional $20 million next two years before he has the market value firmly set after starting in NFL for 3 years. Compared to what he's ready to pocket $750K 2016, break or make for 2017, it is a middle ground for him and the Bills

[Turf]

I think 8-12 per year is fair, no more. I haven't seen enough for franchise status yet.

[jimmifli]

If 2016 resembles 2015 I'd say 12 mill would be ok. A slight overpay maybe but certainly not bat **** crazy like the 20 mill suggested by the article in the opening post.

The question is, if Kap's available next season for that money, would you rather have him?

[Mahdi]

He's got to play at 700k again next year. I hope he keep getting better and deserves a high paying extension after next season.

Unless he holds out?

Never seen a QB do it though

[Mahdi]

I think 8-12 per year is fair, no more. I haven't seen enough for franchise status yet.

He won't get less than 14-15 mil per season.

That being said from now until he gets his contract extension he will have to prove he can win games with his arm and make tough throws in tight windows.

[Night Train]

Worry about it next year.

[BertSquirtgum]

The question is, if Kap's available next season for that money, would you rather have him?

No

[gebobs]

and one of the best 4th quarter QBs in all of football.
Hello! What? Where the heck did this come from? He had some nice garbage time in the first NE and some in both MIA games. Not enough of it against the Giants. And did squat when it mattered in the KC and second NE games. May as well include the Jets game too. Though we won, the offense didn't do anything in the 4th.

TT is pretty good, but comparing him to Wilson, Newton and Rodgers is ridiculous. If you want to compare him to Kaepernick, be my guest. My guess is the Niners are regretting that contract, as will the Bills if they sign him for more than a few years at $10 mill per.

[Albany,n.y.]

The article shows that looking at stats instead of what's going on on the field is pretty worthless.

Let him play next year & see what you've got before shelling out $20 million/year.

[gebobs]

Let's see, at the point two of these other guys signed their contracts...

Wilson: won a Super Bowl, 2x NFC champ, 2x Pro Bowl, 4x PotW, 17 game winning drives, 36 wins over 3 seasons.
Newton: OROY, 2x Pro Bowl, 3x PotW, 1 playoff appearance, 30 wins over 4 seasons
Rodgers: 1 playoffs, 1x Pro Bowl, 11-5 record, 280 ypg his second year starting

When Taylor gets us to the playoffs and double digit wins, then we talk.

[jimmifli]

The article shows that looking at stats instead of what's going on on the field is pretty worthless.

Let him play next year & see what you've got before shelling out $20 million/year.

But maybe you can get him for three years at $12 per if you do it now. Tyrod isn't going to want to risk his frame for another season. He takes less but gets that guaranteed money, and the Bills can still afford to draft a QB whenever they feel.

[jimmifli]

Let's see, at the point two of these other guys signed their contracts...

Wilson: won a Super Bowl, 2x NFC champ, 2x Pro Bowl, 4x PotW, 17 game winning drives, 36 wins over 3 seasons.
Newton: OROY, 2x Pro Bowl, 3x PotW, 1 playoff appearance, 30 wins over 4 seasons
Rodgers: 1 playoffs, 1x Pro Bowl, 11-5 record, 280 ypg his second year starting

When Taylor gets us to the playoffs and double digit wins, then we talk.

And if any of those guys hit the open market they'd be getting more. **** even Brady's deal is starting to look cheap.

[Victor7]

The question is, if Kap's available next season for that money, would you rather have him?

**** no

I'm far from sold on TT but Kaep blows !

- - - Updated - - -


Unless he holds out?

Never seen a QB do it though

I think that darling and lovable Ryan Leaf held out in his rookie season.

Turned out great !

[gebobs]

And if any of those guys hit the open market they'd be getting more.
The point is that these guys earned their contracts. Taylor hasn't earned anything. He has a few good games and all of a sudden people forget Fitz. Not me.

**** even Brady's deal is starting to look cheap.


Maybe Brady can pay with a bunch of schlubs and eat up a quarter of the cap. Not our boy. 5% tops.

[mdcas22]

He's got to play at 700k again next year. I hope he keep getting better and deserves a high paying extension after next season.


no he will make a million plus incentives.



<tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">

CONTRACT:3 yr(s) / $3,350,000

SIGNING BONUS$400,000

AVERAGE SALARY$1,116,667

GUARANTEED:$1,150,000

FREE AGENT:2017 / UFA

</tbody>

<tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">


<thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
YEAR

AGE
BASE SALARY
SIGNING BONUS
WORKOUT BONUS
CAP HIT
DEAD CAP

</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
2015
http://www.spotrac.com/assets/images/thumb/buffalo.png
26
$750,000
$133,333
-
$883,333
$1,150,000 (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/tyrod-taylor/#)


2016
http://www.spotrac.com/assets/images/thumb/buffalo.png
27
$1,000,000
$133,333
-
$1,133,333
$266,668 (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/tyrod-taylor/#)


2017
http://www.spotrac.com/assets/images/thumb/buffalo.png
28
$1,200,000
$133,334
-
$1,333,334
$133,334 (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/tyrod-taylor/#)


2017
http://www.spotrac.com/assets/images/thumb/buffalo.png
29
UFA

</tbody>


</tbody>

[jimmifli]

The point is that these guys earned their contracts. Taylor hasn't earned anything. He has a few good games and all of a sudden people forget Fitz. Not me.


Maybe Brady can pay with a bunch of schlubs and eat up a quarter of the cap. Not our boy . 5% tops.

Yeah. I agree $20 is crazy. %5 is $7 million per season, I don't see that as an offer he's likely to sign.

[jimmifli]

no he will make a million plus incentives.



<tbody>

CONTRACT:
3 yr(s) / $3,350,000

SIGNING BONUS
$400,000

AVERAGE SALARY
$1,116,667

GUARANTEED:
$1,150,000

FREE AGENT:
2017 / UFA

</tbody>

<tbody>

<tbody>
YEAR

AGE
BASE SALARY
SIGNING BONUS
WORKOUT BONUS
CAP HIT
DEAD CAP


2015
http://www.spotrac.com/assets/images/thumb/buffalo.png
26
$750,000
$133,333
-
$883,333
$1,150,000 (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/tyrod-taylor/#)


2016
http://www.spotrac.com/assets/images/thumb/buffalo.png
27
$1,000,000
$133,333
-
$1,133,333
$266,668 (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/tyrod-taylor/#)


2017
http://www.spotrac.com/assets/images/thumb/buffalo.png
28
$1,200,000
$133,334
-
$1,333,334
$133,334 (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/tyrod-taylor/#)


2017
http://www.spotrac.com/assets/images/thumb/buffalo.png
29
UFA

</tbody>


</tbody>


3 years? I thought we had him for 2. If that's right, this is a problem for next offseason.

[Ingtar33]

Hello! What? Where the heck did this come from? He had some nice garbage time in the first NE and some in both MIA games. Not enough of it against the Giants. And did squat when it mattered in the KC and second NE games. May as well include the Jets game too. Though we won, the offense didn't do anything in the 4th.

TT is pretty good, but comparing him to Wilson, Newton and Rodgers is ridiculous. If you want to compare him to Kaepernick, be my guest. My guess is the Niners are regretting that contract, as will the Bills if they sign him for more than a few years at $10 mill per.

I like him better then Alex Smith, and i would have been happy had the Bills signed smith for the money he took in KC. Listen, there are 10QBs in the league worth a dime they're making. The rest are over paid, and not good enough. That's right, there will be 20 teams competing to outbid us for tyrod if the bills let him hit free agency. He's not a top 10 QB. But he's not a bottom 10 qb either. what he is, is good enough at this time, and a big upgrade at a position of desperate need. I would still draft QBs, who knows who we'd find, and if for some reason matt ryan or phil rivers becomes available i'd sign them in a heartbeat. but he's good enough we should be talking playoffs this year. Of course the defense melted down, and he missed two games (both losses) to take us out of serious contention. We have 4 more games, the season isn't over yet (one more loss and it will be), lets just see how it plays out before we start talking extensions and money.


3 years? I thought we had him for 2. If that's right, this is a problem for next offseason.

I thought it was 2 plus a player's option for one more. When he signed here he chose us because he wanted a legit chance to start, so he took a smaller and shorter contract then what others were willing to offer. There were teams like the broncos who offered him more then us, but who wouldn't/couldn't offer him a legit shot at the starting QB position.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

3 years? I thought we had him for 2. If that's right, this is a problem for next offseason.

His 2017 is voidable if he plays more than 50% of the teams snaps in either year, which he already has.

Also, he's almost certain to hit his max incentive this year barring injury, which puts another $1 million on his cap for next year.

[YardRat]

No ****ing way, and double that for even thinking about it until next season.

[jimmifli]

I like him better then Alex Smith, and i would have been happy had the Bills signed smith for the money he took in KC. Listen, there are 10QBs in the league worth a dime they're making. The rest are over paid, and not good enough. That's right, there will be 20 teams competing to outbid us for tyrod if the bills let him hit free agency. He's not a top 10 QB. But he's not a bottom 10 qb either. what he is, is good enough at this time, and a big upgrade at a position of desperate need. I would still draft QBs, who knows who we'd find, and if for some reason matt ryan or phil rivers becomes available i'd sign them in a heartbeat. but he's good enough we should be talking playoffs this year. Of course the defense melted down, and he missed two games (both losses) to take us out of serious contention. We have 4 more games, the season isn't over yet (one more loss and it will be), lets just see how it plays out before we start talking extensions and money.



I thought it was 2 plus a player's option for one more. When he signed here he chose us because he wanted a legit chance to start, so he took a smaller and shorter contract then what others were willing to offer. There were teams like the broncos who offered him more then us, but who wouldn't/couldn't offer him a legit shot at the starting QB position.

I agree. But there may be a discount available for not making him risk his body in the final year of his deal without a guaranteed contract. I think he's good enough (10th to 20th) to warrant the risk and opt for a discount.

I just hate waiting until a deal expires to resign. It always ends up costing us more when the player is good.

[Woodman]

Better sooner than later.

Don't need more than 12 million per year.

Extend 2 years for about 25, that gives us 3 years more.

Restructure or part company with Mario.

[BertSquirtgum]

Better sooner than later.

Don't need more than 12 million per year.

Extend 2 years for about 25, that gives us 3 years more.

Restructure or part company with Mario.

Yeah ****ing right. No way this guy deserves a penny more until after he shows he can keep up good numbers throughout the whole 2016 season.

[Mace]

My only thought is that you don't open the wallet for a QB who can't give you 16 games at least once in a season or you're paying a part time player.

I'm fine with them paying him based on incentives, He's composed and minimizes mistakes, but he's missed games already and doesn't seem robust. 6-4 as a starter doesn't really light up the checkbook. Composed and minimizing mistakes hasn't exactly led the team to the promised land.

I wouldn't really extend him all that quick until he shows what you're reliably extending.

[DraftBoy]

Good for him, he should hold out for every penny he can get.

[stuckincincy]

Good for him, he should hold out for every penny he can get.

I agree 100%. We can argue his pluses and minuses on and on, but he has put up the points and they remain in the hunt.

[MillsapsBillsFan]

And if any of those guys hit the open market they'd be getting more. **** even Brady's deal is starting to look cheap.

Brady makes 9 Million a year. His Deal is cheap

[BertSquirtgum]

Good for him, he should hold out for every penny he can get.

You're what's wrong with the NFL. Tyrod hasn't proven **** yet. Maybe you didn't learn from the Fitzputrid deal?

[BertSquirtgum]

Good for him, he should hold out for every penny he can get.

I mean, my god, how stupid can you be? Would you be saying the same thing if he was a rookie having the year he's having? Because he is essentially a rookie.

[trapezeus]

This s end fair thus far. Stats back it up and if structured like kaps deal very little of it is guaranteed.

I get the hesitancy because tt can be fun to watch, but he's not consistent. And he doesn't throw the intermediate ball unless the wr is wide open not leads to long play development and unusual amounts of 3 and outs. to be our guy long term, he needs to take steps forward next year. If it's the same as this year, you break the contract with little of the money paid out

additionally, with ej out, bills have to draft a qb next year, so hopefully it comes early and motivates tt to get better

[gebobs]

Brady makes 9 Million a year. His Deal is cheap

$9M base + $6M signing bonus

[Mahdi]

I mean, my god, how stupid can you be? Would you be saying the same thing if he was a rookie having the year he's having? Because he is essentially a rookie.

It's a comment no need to go off with personal attacks.

State your point and move on.

Plus I don't see where he said Tyrod is worth 82 over 4, just that he should get every penny he can.

[Novacane]

Lets see how he plays in the next 4 games. This talk could all become moot. If he plays well and we win out I wouldn't mind giving him an extension with incentives that makes it possible for him to make 20 million next year. That would be fair to both sides. Then if he meets the incentives next year the remaining years incentives convert to signing bonus/salary. Tyrod can get his money and the Bills don't get burned on a one year wonder. Win Win.

[DraftBoy]

I mean, my god, how stupid can you be? Would you be saying the same thing if he was a rookie having the year he's having? Because he is essentially a rookie.

Without a doubt, I've been very consistent and open that I support players getting paid as much as they possibly can. You're talking about only a handful of years where you actually get to set your own market. You're also taking multiple years off your life expectancy for every year you play.

[X-Era]

Give him that sort of money after next season if he continues to get better and better. Not after this one.

[DraftBoy]

Give him that sort of money after next season if he continues to get better and better. Not after this one.

And if he decides to hold out because he considers himself to be grossly underpaid?

[gebobs]

And if he decides to hold out because he considers himself to be grossly underpaid?

Or walk away since the third year can be voided, right?

The Bills will revisit his contract after the season. I just hope they are smarter than some of the excitable folks here though recent history doesn't give me nuch hope.

[Topas]

Seeing these numbers I suspect that Spotrac gets sponsored by the players agents...

[mightysimi]

My only thought is that you don't open the wallet for a QB who can't give you 16 games at least once in a season or you're paying a part time player.

I'm fine with them paying him based on incentives, He's composed and minimizes mistakes, but he's missed games already and doesn't seem robust. 6-4 as a starter doesn't really light up the checkbook. Composed and minimizing mistakes hasn't exactly led the team to the promised land.

I wouldn't really extend him all that quick until he shows what you're reliably extending.

Big Ben has played all 16 in just 3 out of 12 seasons.

[gebobs]

Big Ben has played all 16 in just 3 out of 12 seasons.

He started 13 straight his rookie year after replacing an injured Maddox until he was rested in Week 17. In each of the other seasons that Pittsburgh has won 10+, he started every game unless he was sitting out the last.

But yeah, if TT can string together some seasons where we the season won't be lost with some bozo backup like EJ, maybe the Bills will make the playoffs. But it isn't going to happen if he takes beatings like Roethlisberger has over his career. And it sure as hell won't if we keep that play where he goes out in the flats for a pass.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Seeing these numbers I suspect that Spotrac gets sponsored by the players agents...

Maybe, sometimes they undershoot badly. Their projected deal for Dareus was like $30million lower then he actually signed.